Member Info for bandit1

I have been buying more @18p and fully expect either a follow-up offer or farm-in announcement so downside limited IMO.

This has made my day not that the price is anywhere near fair value but that those trolls working for others hopefully have shorts which they will be struggling to cover before the offer gets increased or a competitng offer comes in. This is clearly opportunistic and will not succeed but will put a floor under the price. I expect that farm in discussions are advanced but this news may help last minute leverage on the terms of any deal!

I see the emerging battle here as a positive if only to place gold back into the spotlight as these giants negotiate. I really don’t think that any interest in GGP by Newmont, for example, would be put on hold as we are a relative minnow and these organisations have large strategic development teams which will work on a number of corporate transactions at any one time so, yes, they can walk and chew gum at the same time as an American boss used to say all the time! Sitting quietly and comfortably on the sidelines here waiting for the real excitement to begin - it has only just started with cryptic messages helping to tease us.

Redeyemines - very difficult to anticipate what is going to happen. Logic suggests that Tosca will not participate meaning that PI’s could be successful in tendering a big %. I expect that the market price will probably rise steadily up to date of announcement of the tender offer into the low 40’s but the direction at that point IMO will be driven by extent of participation by the big boys. They will have a pretty clear view themselves about the potential market reaction based on their decision but will also have a clearer sense than we do of the potential next steps by the company which will inform their decision now. I bought more in the market last week as I am pretty confident that as money starts to flow into the company coffers over the year it will be a question of when it is going to be returned not if, along with other news in the pipeline which will support the price at a level north of here IMO. I will wait until last minute to decide what I do with my shares based on what happens in the market and we will have a holdings notice shortly to contemplate.

Aligator - like you I have dramatically reduced my number of posts on BB’s across a portfolio of some 20 stocks due to trolling. Some will say that to give in and allow the trolls to force you away is a failing in itself. That is an opinion which I understand yet with so little control from administrators, and I do accept it is a challenging and expensive process, it is often the best option. Most of us know that trolls usually work in teams to an agenda often for others and therefore are persistent, experienced in what they do and belligerent so most genuine posters can’t be bothered with them. They do not influence my investment or trading decisions as I am too experienced for that but they do occasionally get under my skin. Sad realisation of life on the markets these days so I tend to just skim these boards nowadays and carry on with my research and investment decisions without much aggro! Not sold a share here by the way since I invested but the TW led attack on IOG and share price drop supported by trolls has irked me in the same way as it has you. This will deliver excellent returns in due course, I am pretty confident of that and sense that an announcement re farm-in in the near future which will make a mockery of those who spouted so much tripe over the last few months. GLA genuine investors.

My own guess is that it is probably the 1st of your 3 options however this board is quiet so just maybe those that sold on the way down believe that LO have stopped selling for now so have come back in. Either way I think we have 6-12 months of big moves on a regular basis and with a relatively tight spread people will make money here so I expect more of the same unless we announce a surprise commercial deal.

WW - I agree that it is impossible for us 'insignificant' PI's to know how this will play out. We are not close enough nor do we meet with management as II's do. I tend to focus on where pressure may come from to agitate those in the hot seat now, to up their game. The institutions will do that IMO and will be pretty miffed at their loss on paper but of course they do play a longer game. If the majority support Sutherland and his strategy to reverse recent bad performance and JD and co are dismissed like a couple of naughty schoolboys, shareholders will have to show some patience as it will take time IMO for the price to recover on the back of improved fundamentals. i expect that some may sell and consider coming back at a later stage if they require the capital to deploy elsewhere. Of course a Brexit deal, rather than a delay could float all boats on UK markets as cash sitting on the sidelines returns to equities but that looks unlikely at least it does today! Worse case IMO would be Brexit delay and JD and co rejected. Either way, this is a value play is my eyes and will stick with it pro tem.

I enquired as to whether you had sat on Boards as your question rather implied that you could not see JD and co’s admission as a director, if indeed that happens, making any difference. As someone with a lot of experience on Boards 8 was trying to explain in m6 answer to your question that it is possible!, If you struggle with answers to your questions which had a negative slant, stop asking questions....jeez!

Pretty negative outlook you have Jimini. I am a glass half-full man myself but I fully accept that if you have been invested here for some time your opinion may be tarnished by the sharp drop. Not sure how many Boards you have sat on but there are ways in which one can influence others through regular and persuasive dialogue but you really have to be on the team before you can expect to score any goals. From the outside looking in there are few opportunities to do this so. As I have said earlier, ALL sitting directors are under pressure currently as they have presided over a drop in share price from £25+ to £5 and change over a very short period of time hence will be acutely aware that the status quo will not pass muster otherwise when a new Chair joins they will be forced to make big changes, I am certain of that. Whatever happens, I feel good about my investment here and have time on my side as don’t trade shares like this where my target price is significantly higher than it is.

I forgot to mention that top 10 institutions hold over 40% and I think JD needs Standard Life on his side or it may be tough to get over the line.

@hash - thanks for posting this link. So, we have the current Board making claims that institutions do not want JD and co back yet JD and co must believe they have some major support ( not only PI’s) to succeed with the resolution otherwise what is the point other than to let off steam? Many shareholders will be feeling pretty bad about performance over the last year and that responsibility sits with the current Board. If the resolution fails, what happens next? If I was the representative of a large shareholder and agreed to support the Board on this, I would have to be convinced that Sutherland had the minerals to turn things around and would make it clear that the clock was ticking so the sooner we get an answer to this resolution, the better.

Rand - can’t really follow your post. Suggest that you re-read my comments in response to TLW.

TLW - always very difficult to call a TO price especially so when the price has collapsed in the way in which this has over the last year. You could use a lot of different valuation methods but would come up with a wide range of prices based on the view the bidder has on debt levels and financing costs and options to reduce etc. For example, a buyer may decide that they will immediately sell the airline for, say £1.5bn and restructure the business with little or no debt and then using sector multiples to justify a premium of say 35%. Issue is however that major shareholders excluding Fosun may have an average of 80p-100p or more and that sort of premium (35%) from now would only move the price to just over 40p which would not be near good enough on my view for them to vote in favour of any bid. Not to mention what the senior exec incentives look like and at what price they need before they would be content to recommend an offer. Not looked at this but probably in excess of £1. So, if Fosun are interested in owning a bigger chunk they will continue to buy in the market at these bargain prices but this will take a while before they get to 30% unless they acquire a chunk from an institutional investor but that would cost them a lot more than in the market IMO. In the meantime I have also acquired more this afternoon @ a little over 30p so content to sit back and watch developments with interest.

Agreed and lots of algo trades too helping the drop so some people want the price down as always but I tend to ignore the short term movements which can happen for a multitude of reasons and follow the money!

Yes looks like it to me too. These trolls are all over AIM stocks due to low volume and trading propensity and make a living from making a few hundred £ working for their own spreadbet or as part of a team working for much bigger fish ( market makers or hedge funds). You can spot them a mile off though so I just filter after their first couple of posts so I don’t waste valuable seconds of my life reading nonsense from people with limited or no knowledge about the company.

Savvysage - not sure if you chose that nom de plume as a joke or just to imply some degree of insight into the world of investing. Thing is that on reading some of your posts it gives it away - it is all a big joke and your comments on these boards are all just a bit of fun. Phew, for a minute I thought they were serious attempts at deramping! Oh, if they were serious and I have misunderstood your intentions, don’t give up your day job as trolling is not for you!

Started buying more here over the last few days. Yet to decide how many shares I will tip into the tender pot, if any, but I tend to agree with some who do not expect Tosca to do so - why would they? Next question on my mind is what other plans do Tosca/OF have up their sleeve to ensure that momentum continues. I suspect that other ways to return cash to shareholders will be announced on an ongoing basis at least that is what I would do whether by way of special dividend or SBB or indeed another tender offer. It would also be nice to hear about divs coming into the company’s coffers on top of the quarterly payments which will really give us a boost. After a torrid time it feels as though there is the potential now to make a good return from these levels with modest risk if you have the appetite.

Started buying more here over the last few days. Yet to decide how many shares I will tip into the tender pot, if any, but I tend to agree with some who do not expect Tosca to do so - why would they? Next question on my mind is what other plans do Tosca/OF have up their sleeve to ensure that momentum continues. I suspect that other ways to return cash to shareholders will be announced on an ongoing basis at least that is what I would do whether by way of special dividend or SBB or indeed another tender offer. It would also be nice to hear about divs coming into the company’s coffers on top of the quarterly payments which will really give us a boost. After a torrid time it feels as though there is the potential now to make a good return from these levels with modest risk if you have the appetite.

For me, AH’s first para quote at the bottom of the RNS gives the greatest hint yet of what will probably happen and words such as ‘established’, ‘well-funded’ and ‘recognised’. Some skilful negotiation required now and hope that the recent bumps in the road do not weaken their resolve in discussions. I expect some big players see an opportunity here and see the value here that shareholders have believed in for some time. Look forward to hearing about a deal to draw a line under the last few months of scare stories and trolling.

Serious answer aa888. Brexit as you will know has been running amok for over 18 months now and the UK markets and £ have felt the brunt for that time so YES Brexit is having an affect and probably will going forward both up and down. If you are a new investor I would strongly recommend that you read some books on investing, read the company reports, economic journals, RNS’s for the last year or so and broker reports but don’t forget that some brokers have an angle so difficult to believe what they say about price targets. It is not that easy to make money in equites, they are not get rich quick scheme. These boards are unforgiving with many wishing to take newbies to the cleaners so best to seek guidance away from here and return when you have gained experience. I have been trading and investing for 40 years and only use these boards for the last 5% of info after making 95% of my decision elsewhere. Everyone has to start somewhere - I get that but seen to many car crashes over the years so best to put the hours in and gain knowledge rather than attempt to fast track here.