Member Info for bandit1

I keep IQE on my watchlist as I feel that the IP has significant value to some powerful players with deep pockets but remain somewhat reticent to invest significantly for reasons articulated by others this morning. Perhaps if it drops a little more I will make a small investment just in case looks to buy-out at these lowly levels.

Yes in line with recent guidance but already drawing on credit facilities to the tune of £12m and they will have cash forecast models on a best, base and worst case basis. If the worst case suggests they may require more they will be negotiating with banks or institutions now. Challenge is that raising at £1.45p ( from memory) at the last Placing will make that difficult. Tough times IMO.

NeilH - if I may say so, you do come across as someone without a great deal of business experience, content to believe whatever you read emanating from the company. It is your money so of course your prerogative but just sometimes if you dig a little deeper you may find that all is not quite what it seems on first blush IMO.

SOTB - thanks. I was a shareholder here and reserve the right to comment on a public forum in a civilised way about what I am seeing. That is what these bulletin boards are all about. Even you, being such an ardent supporter of Cross must raise your eyebrows at this transaction when shares in issue are increased by 10% and the company also takes on debt to buy land with no detail about the capex required to monetise this asset or indeed timescales to justify this significant dilution. And it is also worth pointing out that the concert party has increased their holdings again as you will have seen and will be up against the limit ( 29.99%) if we see another transaction like this with shares issued to one of the concert party. Now it may be that progress is being made on a transformatory transaction in the Greater Perth area but my own gut tells me that this is far from clear otherwise why would you dilute at 50p for this land when you could have done so at 80p or more with some positive news? Also, why not inform shareholders how much it will cost PMG and how long it will take to develop this opportunity? You see there could be a positive story but again Cross expects people to ‘ trust him’ without trying too hard to paint the full picture. So, hopefully you will see that there are valid questions here to ask and I do wonder if the institutional investors are given a lot more information from Cross than the insignificant private investor. All IMO.

I posted this in April this year and since then have been persona non grata here. What does that say for the hardcore Cross disciples? Sometimes with investments you get pulled along with the hype which is fine if the CEO keep shareholders up to date and informed allowing them to make decisions along the way as to whether they should buy more, sell or hold. The warning signs arrive however when the CEO is too busy or worse still chooses not to communicate properly to small shareholders. The alarm bells start to ring even more loudly IMO when transactions take place when a fully quoted company is being used for related party transactions in the manner we have just seen. A message to Tom Cross - you leadership style is not working can’t you see that?

April 2019 Price 64.2p
SOTB has been ramping this share it seems for ever. I bought in here with a significant holding 12 months ago with an average in the high 60’s. I sold out recently at circa 73p with a small profit and frankly, I am glad to be out. TC is seen by some as a modern day messiah and whilst I acknowledge decent performance improvement in the recent results which enable the price to spike over 70p for the first time in a while, as always, it drifts down again. The market knows that TC is a poor communicator and will say nothing for a while IMO. Now, I am not saying that he is incapable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat but I have decided, going forward, not to invest in AIM companies whose CEO’s keep small PI’s in the dark and trade on their past reputations which we all know means very little. Yes, before anyone reminds me, I do know what he did at Dana but I will look elsewhere with my capital as I prefer to know what is going on along the way. Best of luck to those invested but no longer for me.

NeilH - a synonym of nepotism is ‘ keeping it in the family’ so your guidance to me about being careful with my choice of words appears to be due to the fact that just perhaps you feel uncomfortable with this related party transaction as many others clearly are. Just to be clear I do not have a short here as I cannot be bothered with spread betting or CFD’s. I prefer to invest in value plays always long and high quality CEO’s. Cross fell into the latter category when I first invested here but sadly the halo appears to be slipping somewhat so I chose to comment on what I observe based on many years experience. If you feel uncomfortable with simple facts just ignore them but there may just be some merit in what I say or others say who are not cheerleaders here.

Well I have been one of the few on here who has questioned Cross’s ‘mushroom’ management style, sold out because of it and have been mocked for it. So, he dilutes poor shareholders with a left field and totally unexpected and some may say narcissistic and certainly nepotistic move, by acquiring land from his wife, you could not make this up. The loyal Cross disciples will blindly tell you that this is a great move but what else can they say? Perhaps his ambitious plans in the North Sea are looking less likely to deliver value but more than a little tangential in my book to dilute in such a bizarre manner. The market has marked the shares down due to dilution and perhaps the loyal disciples will start to sell down as they consider whether the chosen one has lost his marbles or not - the market will ultimate decide that. Little more I can say........

Thanks Coggy. I am an avid golfer and take the money quite frequently at my club so my chums often cry “bandit”. I like to think I was and still am one of the straight guys, of course, probably due to my Scottish Presbyterian roots ( now capitalist), and I believe that bad apples will eventually be found out, if not by our ineffective regulatory system by theirs peers one way or another.

I agree that regulation, particularly in financial services is vital, but surely the pertinent point is that EFFECTIVE regulation is what is crucial to preserve the integrity of the system. I spent my career in the City as others have and saw countless examples of illegal activity the evidence in some instances being pretty clear to anyone with even a modest amount of market knowledge, yet so few convictions actually take place. So, when investing there is no guarantee that regulators will protect those who risk their hard earned cash and there are countless examples of AIM companies where the BOD have mislead shareholders yet those culpable walk away and move onto to the next company to do the same. I will not mention names here but those who have been around the markets for more than a few years could recite quite a few of them. Best to avoid those individuals but not everyone has that knowledge which is exactly what regulators are supposed to do.

Market manipulation is becoming so sophisticated that the regulators are in many instances behind the curve. The really smart folks are working in the hedge funds, broking houses and investment banks making lots of money and they are not in the FCA - harsh but true. Of course there are smart people in the FCA too but you get my point. Whether the regulators have success in our case remains to be seen but the evidence is pretty damming as outlined in the detailed RNS. I for one would lose even more faith in the system if they fail to expose what appears to be quite blatant manipulation. Either way, this is actually a side issue IMO and not in the full control of the BOD so they must IMO focus on convincing the investment community that the way in which they value and report ongoing legal cases in their financial accounts represents fair value and does not represent any kind of obfuscation as asserted by MW and others. So, whether they can provide more detail of their methods with independent validation, that is a challenge for the BOD. The extent to which they embrace this challenge will go a long way to appeasing those doubters and those on the fence. I am prepared to give them a chance.

Quady - yes they do have a duty to inform their clients. The Investment Bank will remind their clients of the dangers of even talking to other large shareholders in a situation which could infer any form of “collusion”. I was an executive on The Takeover Panel in a previous life so trust me, I know what I am talking about having conducted more than a few concert party investigations over the years.

I must confess that I did not expect to see continued downward pressure as we have seen this week which tells me that in this window (before we hear again from the BOD about manipulation) there are quite powerful players bashing this as hard as they can whilst they can. I am in this for a significant upside so see it as an irritant but be sure that the BOD will be spitting feathers at the way in which their company is being played like a fiddle and will not be sitting on their hands simply hoping that sentiment will change, they will have a plan and will execute on that plan when they are ready. All IMO.

Quady - concert parties are dealt with properly under the rules of the UK Takeover Panel to avoid independent organisations using their collective shareholding’s to seize effective control. In other words they cannot take a company private in the way you suggest without declaring themselves as being in a concert party. And no, it is not easy to keep it under wraps as the Investment Banks acting for BHP and Newcrest are under obligation to understand this and advise their clients on this with severe censure if they did not. I just wanted to be clear on this important point to avoid undue worry as there is enough concern given the share price slide over the last few months.

....are not too far aware and therefore I think that we may hear some news beforehand which should dispel some of the continued nonsense spouted on here by those trolls who I filtered some time ago. I would hope that the BOD clarify their intentions as to the return of cash to shareholders and I would be disappointed if any tender offer was lower than 46p. Given that the share price was at a similar level that it is today, from memory, when the last tender offer was announced the BOD should IMO either clarify how they intend to deploy their increasing cash resources in a value enhancing way or return that cash to shareholders. Indeed a tender offer gives shareholders a choice to accept or not to accept and at what level as opposed to a special dividend given to all on the register, as well as the tax treatment differences of course. Tough few months for the share price but better news round the corner I sense.

Mary - yes 18 months or so since it was in the 30’s. In this company with little or no information provided by a large shareholder/CEO having the correct, largely de-risked buy-in price is crucial as you will know so I prefer in the instance to risk missing the opportunity rather than buying-in too early. My investment strategy changes with each company and the extent to which I feel comfortable with my detailed research. In this case there is too much guesswork and reliance on Cross striking the right deals at the right price which is far from guaranteed but not out of the question, so too much of a binary play at the current price. If it returns to 18 month lows I may invest.

GA - did you really say that? “ Once upon a time you would buy shares by post and there were no RNS’s...” You really do invest based on blind faith then but that is your prerogative. Tell you what I think there is a chance that this will drop a bit more and if it does I will buy a few as it will be largely derisked at 40p and even with a continued comms blackout the price should tread water until Cross does something positive with the company’s assets.

ALGO activity reducing somewhat and trolls and most beer and curry day traders off to next 10% opportunity to fund their weekend social activities. As others have said MW, Gotham and the myriad of lesser known short funds involved here have had they day and made some decent money leaving the BOD to pick up the pieces and restore confidence. Overall short positions are small so let’s not over-egg the pudding when talking about overall short positions outstanding now, Whether litigation and more serious sanction is imposed on those who clearly manipulated the price remains to be seen and will be revealed one way or another in the fullness of time. Whilst I would truly love to see the full force of the regulators ban individuals from the markets this is relatively rare given the multitude of suspicious transactions on a daily basis and therefore what we should focus on is the restoration of confidence from the investment community via the purchase of shares at this lowly level. Comments that BUR uses Enron-like financial interpretation was libellous but if you throw enough mud, some of it sticks which appears the case with our share price. I invested heavily on the drop and feel comfortable with my position but also recognise that the vast majority of the trades here are no more than churning by the Algos hence we are trading sideways. This sad episode has shone a bright light on the company on both sides of the pond and it is time for our BOD to stay on the front foot as they have done so far with some aplomb.

Bitethebull - Forgive me but you’re not the father of Sonofthebull by any chance are you? He is the resident ramper on here just in case you were unaware but I suspect that you know that. It’s just that you also seem to share the same blind almost messianic faith in Cross along with another new poster who has literally also just appeared , that everything that he does is going to make shareholders a fortune. The deal is that he won’t keep you updated outside of official financial and other regulatory releases so you must have total faith that he will deliver the goods at some point - you just have to believe. Trouble is that the last few months despite decent financial results which he had to issue of course, shareholder value has been lost at a pretty significant rate. So, either he is losing his Midas touch or the market just doesn’t like his ‘ mushroom’ management style. We don’t know for sure (to be perfectly balanced) but I have been around the block for long enough to know that if you don’t keep shareholders up to date and nothing appears to be happening, you will be punished for that which is what we see. Now, if you think that I should reinvest here on more than just a hunch that Cross will strike a deal at some point in say 2019 please give me something concrete to hang my hat on. If there is nothing but blind faith I will sit on the sidelines but recognise that I may rue that decision if he pulls a very big rabbit out of nowhere.

I think the self-proclaimed inexperienced on here would be well advised to spend a few days reading up on ALGO trading to help understand what it is and why they make up circa 80% -90% of all daily trades on here. I tend to ignore them for the most part as noise, a little like MW’s latest mumbo jumbo report which suggests a big dose of desperation IMO. What does interest me however is that fact that we have a couple of large trades at 840p which are either management trades or institutional trades IMO. Serious investors do not fret over daily price movements but look at their buy-in price and future potential over months and years not minutes and hours.

GA - you may well be right that this will turn out positively for you and other shareholders and good luck to you. I was not aware that Cross made a statement in the early days that he will only communicate with shareholders when he is obligated to do so ie. results and other regulatory notices. As this goes against all of my investment principles I am surprised I missed this when I did my research 2 years ago but lucky to exit with a profit it seems. SOTB right on cue once again. Off to research companies with top leaders who engage and inform shareholders about their plans and strategies after all they own a part of the company as well...........!

This is the way in which I would like more AIM company executives to behave. Listen to shareholders and respond. The next RNS will update us on the proposed market manipulation action and next steps. 8 do hope that Carson Blockhead and his alleged concert party ALGO mates are more than a little concerned although they will cite this as a win for them as agitating the Board to act. Now we need to see the price return to pre-short attack levels. Good news indeed.