Understandably emotions are running high today as major media channels are leading with the Quito demonstrations. Moreno may have hot-footed it to the coast but is defiant and states that he will maintain his anti-corruption and austerity policies. Risk is that he is forced out and there is a return to Correa-era, harder left politics although I believe that Correa has been banned through legislation of seeking a third term in office. Worst case IMO is that Moreno is unseated and pro-mining policies are kicked into long grass. Best case is that this blows over in a week or two and Mather resets his short term objectives, raises short term funds to avoid a delay in timetable and reaches some clarity with strategic shareholders who will have been watching developments very closely.
I have said many times before and I will say again, we have an inexperienced CEO who due to his technical knowledge is running this business as is often the case with small caps. He displays few leadership skills and I sense that Gangfeng can sense this. Who knows if the delay in the 3rd stage of a bizarre 3-stage approval process that our CEO didn’t even know about is due to communist red tape or some kind of oneupmanship and I suspect that we will never know. I for one am looking for a change at the top here going forward otherwise this blip will only be repeated with other blips as Gangfeng get their teeth into this and they will run Secker ragged IMO. I will try hard to stick around until some kind of value can be realised here but it is hard work is it not?
Share price halving in 5 months is bleeding in my book. What we do agree on is the longer term prospects but limited updates from Mather does not help. In the short term do you think that the CEO’s of BHP or Newcrest will recommend to their BOD’s additional exposure at this time, probably not, will other investment capital be announced in the short term probably not. Investors have different time horizons for different reasons. Day trading, short term holding up to a year, medium term and long term Buffett type strategies. I used to criticize day traders and short term holders but realised pretty quickly that they serve a useful purpose PROVIDED that they do not spout misstruths etc etc. if you invest long term, good for you but important IMO to respect other folks strategies whether by circumstance or design as being nimble in these markets and reacting to events as they arise is often an intelligent thing to do.
Quady - we are all grown-ups on these chat rooms even though some have more experience than others, so to state that you are ‘disgusted’ suggests to me perhaps that you should not lower yourself to use these chat rooms. This one is reasonably civilised, others are far from that just take your pick from dozens we all use. SOLG is bleeding at the moment due to a multitude of factors which are well known. They operate in Ecuador which is under-developed politically, socially and economically. It makes positive noises about mining policy but as we have seen here over last 6 months, banana skins can appear at any time as they did with the regional mining referendum and the riots over fuel subsidies causing the government to move to a ‘safer’ part of the country. What sort of message does that provide to foreign direct investors? Not good in my book on any measure - what will be the next banana skin when this one has gone as populism takes hold? So, to minimize clear investment risks and to denounce those for highlighting them could also be described by some as ‘disgusting’ but in my book that would be over-egging the pudding!
SOTB - thanks for your reply. GA - well reasoned post especially the part which highlights that options to develop opportunities will continue to require Cross to dip into cash reserves. We know that O@G sector is under the cosh so investors at this difficult time need something to hang their hat on and stick with their belief in the company and prospects. Not rocket science but regular updates explaining how the different elements of their strategy are progressing and the funds required to monetise these assets with expected ROI is what most CEO’s would do. To do otherwise means either that he has nothing uplifting to say, has not developed detailed plans as yet or he does not feel the need. Of course, and for balance there could be price sensitive reasons but most will sit on the sidelines until such time and we hear again from the great one probable on Platypus or GPA.
Yes it seems that the herd have moved on from BUR so for longer term investors it is certainly a game of patience. So much cash on the sidelines as investors move out of risk assets anticipating the worst in terms of global slowdown. Most central bankers will not allow a recession these days and simply release more cash into the system to keep it going. Not sure if that is the correct approach but politics get in the way but as a quick shock may actually be better to clear the air and would encourage cash back into risk assets. All of this means that when this moves again it could move rapidly and at any time we could learn of the latest litigation to compel the LSE to unmask those who allegedly manipulated the share price. I can wait.
I share the concerns of many about a Fraser’s comments if they are accurate. I have lost a significant sum here on paper like many others but realise that it was my bad. As soon as a CEO starts blaming people that is a red flag to me. Yes, he has struggled to convince investors due to market pressures but that is his responsibility as CEO so must take the blame himself not try to deflect to others which is human nature but a positive display of human nature IMO. Yes he is under intense pressure but so are the many retail shareholders deep under water too. HIs PR should have stopped him, as he has lost credibility and it does indicate that he is thinking clearly IMO. Focus on contingencies 100%, finding strategic partners and other funding options. Please stop blaming others for your own failings as it never ends well.
SOTB thought I would look in for 30 secs and you are relentless in your support. Just to remind you, NeilH and Buzzlightyear that you said in April, so only 6 months ago, that this will break through £1. Now 34p and change, on the bid. What is it that the market is missing here? Perhaps the market has had enough of Cross and consider that the Midas touch has left him? What do you think? I see little prospect in the short term of a shift in momentum but no doubt you will put me right and convince those who continue to add/hold, that the market just does not understand Cross. Truth is, as I have been saying for 6 months or more, IMO the market is saying that they are confused and unconvinced about his stewardship of the company so the share price drip, drips down. Obvious to some but less obvious for those with blind faith. Needs to be said.
Not one for conspiracy theories but it would not be totally absurd, would it, to consider that the many entities who use questionable tactics to manipulate share prices, day in day out, are pretty miffed about BUR standing up for itself and its shareholders? As a response those entities which make a healthy living from spreading fear and doubt using whatever tactics they can, are doing their best to keep their foot on BUR’s windpipe. How very dare they threaten the goose that lays the golden egg! We have a BOD used to a fight thankfully so volatility is here to stay for some time but IMO value will out.
This blog in on the money IMO. We know that BUR has the resources and tenacity to push this all the way and they have over £1bn of lost shareholder value as an incentive. Will the ‘City’ close ranks to protect their regulatory ‘reputation’ which in itself is somewhat of a contradiction? Perhaps they will, but there is a lot at stake here and there is an opportunity for the regulators to use this as a seminal moment given that it is high profile case and will send a powerful message across the market and possibly across the pond if there are US entities bang to rights. Perhaps I am overly optimistic but on the other hand, if BUR fail to bring a successful actin due to technical or other reasons the level of cynicism from the investment community will only go one way.
Well just speed read the documents and I am delighted that BUR are taking this all the way to the courtroom. I believe that it is just a question of time before those involved in the alleged manipulation activity are in front of a judge having to explain themselves. Civil actions may not provide much in the way of financial compensation ( difficult to tell) but they will ensure that individuals pay for their actions of the market manipulation of the claim by BUR is upheld. If Hedge Funds were involved here and if they have deep pockets they could potentially be wiped out given that in excess of £1billion of value was as a direct result of the manipulation. Some people will be very worried today as this will be career defining for some on the wrong side of the law. In hindsight to plan an aggressive short attack in this was on a company with the litigation skills as BUR May have been a grave mistake IMO.
I for one hope that we don’t have to wait too much longer for the release of the interims which will hopefully contain a thorough update on cash position, update on OML18, Barryhoe etc. and indeed plans to return some of the accumulated cash reserves back to shareholders. Perhaps this may stop those in their tracks who dream up almost daily, an endless number of spurious claims none of which ever come to fruition - yet they keep going! Fanning has 9.5m shares and did not participate in the Tender Offer. He has recently bought more shares at 37p and here we are at 29p on the bid. I imagine that he is not feeling too chirpy at the share price so I expect that he will be very keen to get back onto the front foot with the next update. Sooner the better as the constant drip, drip makes the journey back up a little more challenging.
STS69. I’m afraid that you are wrong again. The difference between myself and trolls is that I am upfront about the fact that I am not a holder and indeed I also have a very good reason to criticize a company and in this case the CEO for poor communication ( some of the worst I have seen) and some sloppy transactions. Furthermore I have been correct in my assessments here , and the market agrees with me. What have I said which is unjustified? I will also say that I rarely criticize companies in which I am not currently invested but as someone who owns a property on the southern coastline of the Moray Firth and who interacts with people in the O&G industry up there, I feel that Cross is fair game due to his unconventional and some may say aloof style of management. That can create doubt, frustration and often leads to shareholders selling. That is what we have seen here. Perhaps you are under water hence your irritation with myself. Others may be prepared to acknowledge that my warnings over the last 6 months have been justified. And other thing do you have any idea where Hanson has gone by any chance?
My initial investment here was around £1 a share and I saw it rise rapidly to £ 1.50 before the torturous drop on failed fund raising etc. I have invested more at lower levels but still have a relatively high average. I continue to believe in the asset(s) and the strategic story but I remain extremely doubtful about the skills of Secker. Citi found Gangfeng not Secker and yet he is incapable of managing this transaction to completion properly, failing to ensure we have a clean approval process and not identifying that there was a three-stage process. The success of this company going forward will be inhibited IMO until we secure the services of a capable commercial executive with the ability to lead and negotiate and communicate at a much higher level than Secker has shown he is able to. So, we wait again on final approval and when it c9mes as we all hope it will I would like to think that the Chairman can see Seckers limitations and appoint a new CEO. By all means make Secker the exec responsible for delivering production but I fear that we will not maximise shareholder value with h8m at the helm. I am alone with this view?
Not to worry chaps he will probably turn up again in another guise! Most common reason for a poster to disappear without being abusive is multiple ID’s. No idea if this applies to him, but he asserts that he is an active buyer of PMG and that should be reason in my book to ban someone! Despite the shortcomings of Cross as a leader/communicator I may even consider a punt in here if it drops to 25p as it will be largely de-risked at that price and could rally a bit from provided there are no more related party transactions.
I suppose being associated with Woodford was good for the company when Woodford’s reputation was on the up then the opposite happens. Most of the stock owned by Woodford has been snapped up but others were selling at the same time knowing that this was only going one way until the big blocks have settled down into longer term hands. Trouble I have is that SocGen appear to have been trading this heavily and someone is certainly selling down still with many ALGO trades going through daily. This has overshadowed decent update today. I still think that the CEO should have issued some statement about the Woodford saga as he sat on The Patient Capital funds Board from memory and it was all too cosy. He should have clarified his position or even better resigned but he did not. Mud sticks at nervous times like this when people are tarnished by association rightly or wrongly.
I have a number of posters on filter so don’t read their posts. Be assured that the Takeover Panel will be all over any potential concert party implications giving that IOG were in an offer period 6 months ago. I am also certain that the IOG BOD will be in touch with the Panel through their advisors should they suspect any collusion. Seems that there is a lot going on behind the scenes both operational, of course, but potentially corporately too which we need to hear about and hope this is sooner rather than later.
Kieffy - there are few institutional investors here. The share register is full of nominees used by private investors. The problem with the share price is that there are not enough II’s . Important for people to understand this.
Just to add to my speculative musings, RRE are bound by rule 2.8 of the Takeover Code which amongst other things restricts a potential offeror from bidding for 6 months and 1st October is anniversary date but this rule is set aside if another entity makes a bid. Probably barking up the wrong tree here but in the absence of any clarity on the unusual transactions what else is there to do?
In their interim announcement yesterday they said something like ‘ we now have significant financial resources to take advantage of market conditions ‘ . Whilst this is a typical statement we know the Marathon deal has been a success and their CEO is ambitious and pure speculation on my part but is it possible that RRE are using the cover of Spreadex to build a position here? Is it possible that they will attempt to acquire blocks from Administrator or other large holders?