focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I hope many on here, like me, have filtered johnygolightly. It seems that the quality of paid trolls is dropping like a stone these days. Hasn’t even tried to understand the company fundamentals so best to filter and he will disappear as quickly as he has arrived with his 25p per post. Important to stay patient here and whilst it is important for Austin to consider opportunistic transactions at a low price point, there is no need to panic buy IMO given the strength of our balance sheet. In the coming months as the world economy starts to emerge from this virus induced depression the enforced production cuts in US, Mexico, Russia and Middle East and elsewhere will start to rebalance supply and demand. Yes it will take time but the market is forward looking and the positive effect on the price of Brent and WTI may come sooner then some expect. Patience is required I know but we are getting used to that after 5 weeks at home!
Redleader just to add to the replies you have received, which I agree with, is to say that Prim is an investment company of sorts which relies upon investors believing in them, not just their investment prowess but also that they can be trusted. Saying one thing then doing another is not a great sales pitch IMO. I suspect they will hold as their boss knows this area better than anyone on here.
Marty - I do agree that this board is almost dead and few would deny that Bluerill is probably one of the most pompous individuals you will find on any of these boards. He does appear to be an investor here, as Indeed I am and he vilifies the derampers which is no bad thing. I do my own research and will wait patiently for my pay day here but for those of a sensitive disposition best to stay away especially if you have an agenda to bash SLE. If you choose to do otherwise you deserve all the get!
Prudent perhaps but how many times have we heard ‘ no dilution’ , ‘fully funded’ ? My own view is that we have an inexperienced CEO who tries hard but without the confidence of the investment community he will find it hard to attract new money. He is unproven and has destroyed value since his appointment which is a fact. Yes, we have CalE on board but their presence has not exactly lit the touch paper here so far has it? I accept that the sector is in a pickle at the moment and if I did not need the funds I would probably exit and use the capital elsewhere . Thankfully I invested in Greatland Gold below 1p so will sit here for a few years to see if the potential here can be exploited with the aid of CalE. Not sure that Hockey has the minerals to do so on his own IMO but if he proves me wrong I will happily eat a few slices of humble pie.
I have had this on my watch list since Stroll initiatives discussions at the higher placing price. On the watered down deal I decided to hold off and I remain on the sidelines until the new shares have washed through the market. Will AM survive as a brand? IMO I do think it will but not in the current plc. My own view is that ultimately the debt and continuing losses will continue to drive the price down and that’s when Stroll puts his hand up and agrees to save the brand but the company returns to private hands with Stroll owing it. As an F1 fan I am fascinated about what happens in 2021 when he plans to rename his current team ‘Aston Martin’ . Will he own the brand by that time? Not a shorter but this is how I see this playing out based purely on fundamentals.
It is true that PE have more cash that they know what to do with at the moment but when your top man has almost 30% of the equity there is no risk of him being seduced at recommending a poor deal to shareholders which I have seen too many times so I have no worries in that respect. I invested here due to the clear under-valuation even at 30 bucks a barrel, Austin’s skin in the game and the strategic long game and potential to use cash firepower to leverage value. Nothing has changed apart from the spivs jumping on the back of a virus driven demand shock helped by ALGO’s and they have forced the price down regardless of underlying value which is how the markets work these days, however irritating that is for most here. Even more important therefore is to believe in what we have and ignore the naysayers as some have said already, they will not be on this board when the world comes out of this nightmare and global economic growth ramps up. Don’ t forget that there is likely to be a lot of cash coming back into risk assets and many will be searching for bargains.......yes bargains like company’s on a 65% discount to cash. All IMHO.
Oil loser is clearly a paid troll. You can smell them a mile off. In the trash cash for you troll along with your troll mates. Now, it seems to me that there is a lot of pressure to keep the price down here by some parties. The huge disparity between fair value and current value is vast as genuine shareholder are fully aware. Austin is not a patient man and will have contingency plans in mind if this disparity continues for months on end. He cannot buy through 30% otherwise he would be required to submit a Rule 9 mandatory bid but he could raise funds in conjunction with external investors to take the company private. He is well connected and fully incented. I wonder is SA are still selling stocks cheaply before they are in the period of commitment for production cuts. Either way, hang on in here folks as returns will come our way despite losers winding us all up.
New KOTB IMO when the stakes are high such as they are here, and we all know that Mexico are a bit player in this arrangement (4% of cuts) they will not get away with scuppering this deal. SA and Russia have compromised in a big way as have other nations so Mexico will be dealt with in some way or others will pick up the slack. Mexico are not a superpower and need friends so expect some for of arrangement. I don’t know what it will look like and don’t particularly care but I do know about business and this deal is too big to fail due to a pipsqueek producer. Expect the OPEC rules to be re-written after this.
Pleased to see this and hope their estimate of a bounce in POO bears fruit.
https://t.co/Iekw0lmJj5?ssr=true
I am delighted with these results. As Shipscook1 pointed out, oil has stabilised after dropping when trading resumed last night. It may take a few days to settle down but the share price will most certainly recover some lost ground over this week and on a final OPEC++ decision to make significant production cuts returning $40 bbl we will start moving up to £15 in good order IMO,
If Putin is fronting this, expect Novak to be the sacrificial lamb. This is how these things work in Russia and other countries with all powerful leaders. Russia appear yet again to be at fault IMO as they have resisted recent production cuts with their typical one dimensional tough-man approach to every negotiation and have pushed MBS too far a few weeks ago. Putin has his back against the wall with Russian populous increasingly unhappy about the way he is handling matters. He will want a deal for economic and internal political reasons leaving Novak’s reputation tarnished but who cares. As to what price this opens tomorrow am, this does not really concern me too much apart from an opportunistic trade if the markets look right as my main investment position is long and I feel very comfortable with that until the oil and general market stabilises. For the record I do expect a drop by the MM’s on open and across the day in lieu of any public statements so may seek short term opportunities along the way. An exciting share to be invested in at these levels as the downside is modest but the upside is very significant all IMO.
IMO the apparent value distortion here can be fully justified by the poor way in which Cross runs this company. The share price pre-virus and pre MBS/Putin arm wrestle was the market reflecting that all the way down from £1 not too long ago. This will obviously bounce if a production cut is agreed ( rising tide floats all boats) but as for giving poor and loyal shareholders any sort of return on their investment if you have been in for a few years I just cannot see it. When there are alternative opportunities in the sector like Rockrose ( RRE) with cash on balance sheet excluding decom costs reflecting a share value of £20 + yet RRE closed Friday at less than £8 you can see why new money will not come here any time soon. All IMO and full disclosure I have just taken a chunky stake in RRE.
In reading the detail I have invested more here today this morning. Remote working for litigation lawyers is a breeze and it seems that there is some good news on the way with case successes. Cash is not a problem so looks to me that this share price should build from here. I remain irritated that no progress has been made on the potential action against spoofing and layering and getting the names from LSE but that may come in the fullness of time. A great opportunity to buy-in as the financial results will be presented in a different way providing greater transparency and hopefully this will begin to build confidence again in a market leader. As Bogart reminds us, Covid-19 and the draconian steps taken around the world has impacted Society in a multitude of negative ways and some will seek redress when this pandemic runs its course. Bur is in an ideal position to benefit from this IMO.
Ammu - either the market has got this one completely wrong or there are problems that some know about but no-one on here does! I am a fairly new shareholder but hold a decent position in IOG and started acquiring here around £12 all the way down to almost £5 and I am very happy indeed with my position here. At some point this year ( impossible to tell when) the price of oil will rebound sharply as MBS and Putin finish their arm wrestling contest and someone mediates a face-saving compromise between them. When this happens this will power forward towards £15 and beyond dependent on any corporate activity announced along the way. Markets are all over the place and valuation metrics have been thrown in the bin. So many great opportunities to acquire solid assets at basement prices in most sectors you just need to have free cash to invest and a little courage.
Yes indeed some light relief amongst the doom and gloom! Hockey is teasing us with his comments about Harvey and Redwell hinting that the further technical work may produce better than expected results post the initial estimates and that CalE may become involved at least that is what the optimist may interpret. Even though the option expired a new deal can be struck with an injection of more cash into IOG. The pessimist will already be in the Tesco queue waiting to be more loo rolls......
After RRE’s failed attempt last year to acquire IOG for 20p I did some research and put it on my watchlist as I liked what I saw. I decided to buy a chunk on Monday as they have dropped like a stone along with so many others despite sitting on a cash pile of circa £270m and no debt. The CEO was interviewed today by Malcy and there are some very useful hints in the piece about potential new targets. They want to acquire gas assets to complement their oil portfolio and they like the Southern North Sea! They could buy us at a 100% premium for cash if the wanted to. Probably not tomorrow or next month but when the dust settles from Covid-19 hysteria and the Putin/MBS arm wrestle Austin will see what looks attractive. I expect he wants their paper back up at £20 first to reflect the cash on their balance sheet but one never knows. CalE will be aware of this so perhaps they may act beforehand to give us a much needed boost.
https://www.malcysblog.com/2020/03/core-finance-interview-andrew-austin-executive-chairman-of-rockrose-energy/
Supply chain issues in the East on top of a tired brand, a founder who has returned to a mess which will take a lot of sorting out, and most likely a founder who no longer has the appetite, dedication, energy and flair to turn the Brand around. Often when someone returns to a company, football club etc having achieved success there in the past it rarely goes as well as before. Every time I look at this company on my watchlist I cannot convince myself of any reason to jump back in. This was one of my most successful shares 10 years ago. Tempting as it is to see value at these levels, if a brand has lost its appeal whilst competition have upped their game and are more in tune with current menswear trends and their customer base, what will stop the rot? I’m afraid I am struggling to find an answer.
A very specific date of 27th Feb was given as the date by which time CalE will decide whether they should exercise their option on Redwell-Harvey farm-in. Will they do this and announce soon? Notwithstanding the market volatility I would like AH to keep shareholders informed in good time given historical tardiness.
I should have added that CalE have only 10 days to decide whether they take up the Harvey option and pay another £20m. This could be instructive either way.
LO will not be buying on behalf of others ( concert party) if that would mean they breach 30% as that would require a Rule 9 mandatory offer under The Takeover Code. They are smart and ruthless operators and as I have said previously are sweeping up shares hence there is no drop on the bid over months despite steady selling. I believe they are convinced that there is so much value in IOG not reflected in price this is a punt worth taking. They are sitting on a very healthy profit already based on their participation in ‘fire sale’ raises and are waiting for the company to get their act together and either do some form of deal with CalE or wait for others to agitate for true value to show its face here. Smith and Williamson are doing the same as far as I can see but of course everyone could be wrong. Just need to wait for news now.