Member Info for bandit1

Bottom line is that Maxit will be doing the heavy lifting here and not Caldwell so what will he be rewarded for what - assuming the title of CEO of a zombie company? All shareholders will have the opportunity to vote against these confetti options when the company gets around to arranging a vote. Of course it will be more difficult to vote this down with recent dilution but if all PI’s make the effort to do so along with BHP, NCM and others there must be some chance it is voted down. Why not simply award him a bonus on successful completion of a deal rather than risk the ire of weary shareholders? Makes little sense to me but nothing which this company does makes any sense. No wonder London markets are losing out to other financial centres. This will continue going forward that I have no doubt as Boards know it is quite easy to shaft retail shareholders.

Toscafund’s 75% holding is slowing the fall here. For transparency, I sold out here over the last month fearing that there were serious problems in SLE getting over the line. Dither and delay is a watchword with this company and here we go again. Held post suspension as the economics were compelling but a 50% drop from 40p to 20p says it all. It is tempting to invest at these levels but it seems to me that NNPC’s actions, if nothing else, will add many more months onto the timeline, best case. Worst case it scuppers the deal entirely leaving the company scrambling to recover funds owed. High risk has become extremely high risk. Will continue to track progress closely however as high risk means high reward if OF can pull a rabbit out of the hat. Alaric - you were very comfortable with your position here a couple of weeks ago although I recognise that things have changed significantly. I would welcome your thoughts as to whether you think the market reaction is overdone and that we may see a quick resolution here? Will Toscafund start to buy more to prop up the price perhaps?

Stumpy I know, in fact for the last 18 months there are those who have made a virtue of selling at the lowest price possible during a full day’s trading at the end of day auction. Some may say that they are just not very good at this game but others will know that this is a tried and tested strategy used by shorting teams to suppress a share price. Those that do it consistently deny it but I know that it happens. Eventually they will disappear but as we are in an uncomfortable vacuum with Newcrest calling the shots it makes their job that much easier.

Sold out my residual holding here today. The NNPC are most likely overstepping the mark or sending a strong message. It doesn’t really matter what their motive is but the effect will to hamper the transaction, of that I have little doubt. What happens next? Litigation or will the NNPC admit to being heavy handed and allow Eroton to carry on with assurances that they will make good any obligations when the transaction is finalised. No idea but I don’t like this latest banana skin from within this banana republic so for that reason I will wish all patient and genuine shareholders good fortune.

Chickenlegs - as I expected one of the many traders on here posting regularly and giving advice to sell when you have exited which you are most likely not qualified to do so! I would be careful if I was you. The more experienced investors will know to do their own research and won’t be drawn into believing regular posters on these boards who will talk their own book ( just topped up again blah blah). Often the reality rarely matches what one reads . I can see it a mile off from other regulars on here too. Bottom line IMO is that if you are in a position to hold for a bit longer there maybe clarity on the new JVA and we can make a judgement at that time if sufficient detail is provided as to whether the share price will ever reflect potential.

Couple of points to make here. The rise we have seen over the last week or so from 7.5p to 9.5p whilst most welcome is almost certainly due to buying from those aware that the funds had arrived. No date given but I would strongly suspect they did not arrive last night! Always the case but regulators do nothing. Those folks will be selling this morning. This gives the market comfort but we are so far under the radar atm it will take time and some adept marketing from Brad when the JVA is signed to reignite wider investor interest. Secondly, this has been torture over the last 6 months with little clarity and market makers are acutely aware of this and will use to their advantage. As someone else correctly pointed out the drilling has not yet recommenced and the new JVA will still take some months to complete it seems. Brad ( over my pay grade) now has to up his game and ensure that we are respected partners in a JV with an ability to inform the company’s shareholders on a timely and consistent basis what is happening with progress on the various tenements. This will be key to ensure that we do not simply drift at current levels whilst MMA spend another $20m + drilling the prospects. Let’s also hope that Brad does not go mad with $4m in the Bank as none of us will be impressed if he seeks to issue new equity down the line at low levels and before the market gets a chance to recognise what are sitting on. Over to you Brad, you are a very well paid CEO for a micro cap so you need to step up to the plate.

GGPTh - my last word on this after all we are all on the same side, I think! Using the brokers reports and estimates of free cash flow when we go into production, I can calculate using market multiples that our 30% share of Havieron has a value 3-4 times or more than our current share price when we ramp up to full production. Strategically I can easily see the potential merits of controlling Telfer but we have a £400m + market cap a reasonable amount of debt, 5bn shares in issue and to assume control of Telfer and 100% of Hav would cost multiples of our current market cap. So, I am all for dreaming but it is the numbers which will determine success or failure, no?

Jerryspaniel. That is an arrogant post. This is simply your opinion without any supporting facts. I am someone who deals in facts and until we see some value created here supported by compelling data I and others will reserve the right to question. SD is not the messiah and whilst he is a relented individual I want to see evidence of his talents in terms of shareholder value creation. The just is still out and that is a fact not simply an opinion.

Important to recognise that there will be huge amounts of speculative print when a merger between two giants of gold mining is being contemplated. There may well be an opportunity for GGP management to participate in a shake up of assets and SD and our team will be all over it I am sure. The challenge we have atm IMO is that we are working on historical data and we still have no firm handle on the full potential of Hav when we finally reach the edges of the ore body. I am also reticent therefore to see large equity raises or significant debt without being very clear about the value proposition . Yes, if sufficient data can be presented which shows an accretive transaction I may be able to support it but perhaps we need to walk before we run. SD is clearly very ambitious, which is a good thing, but I do hope that we don’t bite off more than we can chew. Bringing in even more large backers at a low equity price may be great for management as they can always find new incentive schemes to replace existing ones but for long term shareholders any ambitious new transaction will have to be very convincing for me at least. Long term shareholders in GGP have by nature a healthy risk appetite for investing here in the first place but we are less than 18 months from producing now and generating cash for the first time ever so any new large deals need to be good for all shareholders and not just for the new backers and mates of our rock star board members.

It really is tiresome to read the same old stuff about the risk of low-ball offer which comes around every couple of weeks. Those shareholders who are concerned should consider the share register, high number of retail shareholders and relatively small number of institutions. Let’s assume a high premium of 50% was offered by an offeror, so 12p. Would that excite SD, CB or our rock star Board members who have just arrived at the party with options with a base around that level. Unlikely. Would that excite the loyal retail shareholders who have been here since 2016/17? Unlikely as they know what may be possible here given time. Would that sort of offer excite new shareholders many of whom are under water having invested in the 20’s? Possibly to allow an exit but unlikely. As someone who has been invested since 2016 I have no concern whatsoever about a low-ball offer making headway due to the factors above. Yes the share price stagnating at these levels is frustrating but I don’t expect much change until the DTM/new MRE are announced the the market or other left field news is announced. So, perhaps those worried about a low-ball offer should consider the facts which are public knowledge within the share register before worrying unnecessarily.

Archways. My knowledge of the blue book is a little out of date from my time in the City but I do know that the offer period started today with the publicly announced offer so the clock is ticking. The Takeover Panel in OZ would most likely have been aware of the fact that there had been an earlier offer perhaps on a no-names basis or perhaps on a named basis it doesn’t matter but this earlier offer was not in the public domain and therefore no risk of a false market. I am pretty certain that the fact that Newcrest have a JV with us makes no difference at all and would not mean that the connected parties or advisers would have to declare any interest in GGP. There will be numerous corporate entities who have relationships such as the JV we have with NCM and it would be impossible and unnecessary to force disclosure from all commercial partners which is what GGP is. There are also exemptions from disclosure when in an offer period to avoid some professional advisers and principal traders having to disclose positions ie. Funds and large banks etc which have little relevance to the transaction and to avoid a mountain of pointless admin. Those entities must present the reasons why they should have exempt or special exempt status and the case officers at the Takeover Panel will make that decision. None of that should affect us as we are not in the offer period, we are just a commercial partner of NCM.

Good evening Alaric. I bought into SLE 5 years ago or more and have managed to make some reasonable returns along the way despite the challenges, of which there have been many, in the time I have been invested. I am very patient with many of my investments and often do well as a result so have no issue with that philosophy. Here is another “ Successful investing is about time in the market, not timing the market” there are many more to suit every situation. We all have our red lines and the suspension in 2021 followed by delay upon delay last year following the ‘forced’ return from suspension ( my words) is a red line for me despite the fact that the economic case should the RTO succeed looks very attractive. So, I still have a fair sum invested should this jump 100% or more on announcement of the completion of the deal. I am taking the view that even if this deal does proceed it may not be as straightforward as we would all wish ( compromises to get over the line) and therefore I can take a view at that time about investing more if I see an opportunity even if I miss the initial spike. I have been in the markets a long time and persistent delays with limited explanation never feels good to me and sometimes ends badly. Trust in management is a big deal for me and the procrastination here for reasons that are not clear to us minions is a step too far for me at this time. We all know that doing business in this jurisdiction is fraught with difficulty and my risk reward felt a little out of kilter in the context of my overall portfolio given the persistent delays.

Perhaps you can explain why you will not tolerate any negativity about SLE here despite the obvious issues we have all experienced in delivering what has been promised. Can I suggest that you read up on confirmation bias if you are not familiar with the term? Not wishing to be derogatory but when some people try and defend the indefensible I want to understand why.

Spent the last month selling small blocks every other day and 90% of my holding after the latest delay to this proposed transaction. I am holding only a small chunk just in case miracles do happen. Some will say that this is Nigeria, Africa and therefore you should expect this. I would say that the Board also know this and therefore have set deadlines time and time again with that same knowledge, yet failed to deliver. The same people will say that this is highly complex set of inter-dependent transactions in difficult economic times, yet there comes a time to cut and run when it doesn’t feel right and this is mine. I appreciate that OF has skin in the game but he has underestimated the difficulties here once again. I dread to think what would happen if this transaction does not proceed as I wonder if we will ever receive full repayment from our loan to MIdwestern. I appreciate that in time, I may regret this but I sense that even if the deal can be finalised at some point there will sufficient obfuscation ( there always is with OF) that I will have some time to decide whether I should jump back in and benefit from what was proposed in the RTO as sufficient upside which I have never doubted. Sadly I doubt the ability of the actors involved to get this done. Just as well that Toscafund own such a large % here otherwise we would be a lot lower than we are today. Remember that wag Bluerill who would always post something cynical followed immediately by our board sheriff Alaric, well he disappeared some time ago when we were on the 40’s and I imagine that he is relieved that he did.

Absolutely no need or expectation from most that SD says anything at all. In fact, if he did he could make himself look a little stupid if, in a day or 2 the NCM Board issued a statement to say that ‘ the offer is opportunistic and significantly undervalues NCM blah blah ‘. Best tactic is to work on scenario planning until the smoke clears and then respond if there is anything to respond to. He knows what the JV agreement says about change of control and I expect that any successful bidder would simply assume the position that NCM are in with a 70% holding in Havieron and a 51% stake in Juri JV. I sincerely hope that there is a competitive bid situation here forcing NCM to properly value Havieron. So many permutations here.

I was a long a few years ago but felt that AH was not the calibre of CEO who would deliver shareholder value. He refused to talk to AA at that time which I felt was a mistake. I was always very nervous about the overhang of the LOG administrator and LO’s holding knowing that they would sell into every tactical rise. LO stopped selling a couple of weeks ago after the early Jan bombshell but I believe moved another big block today with the latest bad news so expect another TR-1 later this week.. I agree that the LOG administrator will be feeling the heat now as he trusted in management as many PI’s did and many are staring at big losses by selling out at current levels. No good news expected for a few months at the very least so those buying at 5p as a punt may have to wait for their 20% IMO. Sad state of affairs. Yes O and G exploration and production is a tough gig but some management teams make it a lot harder than it should be.

Growing shareholder value is the primary purpose of the BOD of any public company. There will be those who will say otherwise but that is an undisputed fact. CEO’s are judged on their record of doing so. SD regularly quotes the growth of shareholder value at Northern Star whilst he was CFO there so he knows better than most how important it is.

He is not in control of the Hav JV and I sense that frustrates him privately especially so, as we have not yet identified a new ore body in any of our 100% owned tenements although the prospects are good. His reluctant acceptance of having to wait longer for NCM’s updated MRE says it all. Perhaps he should have acknowledged as much that he has changed his tune here in the media yesterday rather than slip it into a conversation but it is what it is. He needs to up the ante on drilling these 100% tenements IMO to take back control of the narrative. Permits and approvals unfortunately take time. Issuing large chunks of new equity at our current level was a necessary evil but has understandably anchored our share price. We have yet to see any benefit from the new investors not forgetting the dream team but without these decisions I think most would agree our share price would probably be lower than it is today.

Drill results at Havieron are largely ignored as everyone knows. IMO, the market is acutely aware that NCM call the shots on Hav and that we must dance to their tune hence the pull back again despite all of the positives. I am as frustrated as anyone on here to watch relatively small volume control our share price but consol myself with the hope that in 2024 the narrative on Hav will be very different and will focus on ore extraction and revenue generation. In the meantime we could really do with some positive drilling results later this year along with the ASX listing to uplift the PI base which is clearly quite flat. SD has been slow in recognising how AIM actually works IMO and the sooner we have an ASX listing the better for all for the reasons he articulated yesterday.

So for me, SD has to use the funds raised and the dream team as intended (who are highly incented) to start to drive shareholder value after all, that is why he is where he is and we are all invested in GGP. He will be judged on this in the fullness of time and I will give him a couple of years from now to deliver for shareholders regardless of the day to day negativity.

Shenners old chap. You do understand that there are hundreds if not thousands of private investors who will trade with pots of £100k -£200k or more or perhaps you don’t understand that. So, it follows therefore that it is pretty easy for private investors to buy a few million £’s worth of stock on a severe drop looking for a bounce. Lombard Odier are very aggressive and knowledgable and they will have decided on the dire news to take some money of the table in case this goes from bad to worse. So, they have sold to speculators yesterday IMO and I would be very surprised to see a TR-1 with an existing or new fund buying with so much uncertainty. So, I predicted that we may see a further drop of between 3 and 5% today which is looking likely. I will probably avoid IOG even if it drops to 5p as I think that management are struggling big time here and the elephant in the room which will always haunt IOG is that LO and/or the Administrator IMO are likely to offload more without crashing the price if they do not hear good news any time soon. Time will tell how this will play out.

As expected either the Administrator or LO were exiting in a big way yesterday. Some wags are content as someone has been buying the shares they have been offloading! Well yes the traders were buying these hoping for a bounce and LO knew that they would. My prediction is that these same traders will realise that the bounce will not happen and some will exit tomorrow dropping the price another 3-5% and if we see another TR-1 next week we will continue to see further drops until we settle at a lower price, perhaps 5-6p. I believe it may settle there until we hear more from the management team. Sad state of affairs but if you invest in management rather than pure technicals you will be hard pressed to punt more here IMO. I will watch and see what transpires but respect is hard earned but easily lost.

Yet another desperate failure of honest utd comms from an inexperienced management team. I have been in and out for years and sold 18 months ago thinking that AH was out of his depth. RN took over recently and instead of exercising extreme caution until he truly knew the outcome of these latest results he tried to create the impression that first gas was just around the corner and all will be fine. This brought in new traders on his appointment expecting that the new CEO really had the Midas touch and know much more that AH knew. Reality is that RN is no better informed and has even less experience in running a plc. Sadly we see this a lot in oil and gas and commodities where geologists think they can run a public company whereas most fail and should stick to their specialism. Managing investor relations and building the confidence of investors is more complex than geologists realise and it is where they usually fail. I suspect that there has been misleading public statements but they are almost never followed up by regulators. IMO a lot of traders will have bought in today for their 10% and are talking this up without having much of a clue but will bail tomorrow or before the weekend. This is very high risk play now and it will take a lot to settle the nerves. And of course the elephant in the room is that the Administrator et all will start to salvage what they can on any rise. Sad but typical of these small O&G plays. And yes, I felt that RRE would have been a better manager of the assets but Hockey thought he knew better.

Perhaps he can see that there is no deal likely any time soon (he would know) , there is no end to the war in the near term and that the prospects at EUA are not looking too bright. In his shoes I would probably look for other opportunities after a tough year. I feel that many here are clinging onto false hope. I sold at a heavy loss last year like so many others and have accepted the loss. It was a high risk play and no-one expected the war. I do think we were in negotiations but any bidders would have walked last Feb when Putin invaded Ukraine yet the BOD have kept the carrot dangling. With the market starting to look a little less depressing, commodities looking brighter and inflation seemingly peaked, perhaps it is time to look to recover some of the loss elsewhere. I know it is tough to do but hanging around waiting for a miracle to happen is not alway good for the mental health. So many of the FTSE small caps are undervalued it is possible to recover losses elsewhere if you enough capital and a short memory.