The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I agree Schlemiel. The results from their first drilling programme over the fence from Hav will be studied with considerable interest by all of us as they will come out before Scally drilling gets underway. Let’s hope that Hav is not an anomaly if you pardon the pun and this area is littered with new finds which will increase the potential hit rate for us not to mention expanding Hav into a much bigger deposit.
CompuServe - the value leader in Cyberspace is unlikely to be involved with this dividend unless it is lost in Cyberspace of course.
Computershare - the worlds only Global share registrar.
Important to get ones facts right if you intend to take the moral high ground don’t you think?
I must say that this stock has a mind of its own and does not react as one would expect to the obvious increase in Brent etc. If we are frustrated, can you imagine how AA feels at the moment? IMO this is most certainly not the time to bail out due to frustration just because others in the sector are rising more. There will be many conversations going on in the background and we have the virtual OPEC session over the weekend to look forward to and I hope the Saudis have learned the lesson from their mismanagement of the last meeting and deal with Mexico before they attempt to showboat and leverage their relatively small position this time around. I am optimistic that we will see a more joined up meeting which will help to maintain commitments and this may put a floor on POO at current levels. Either way I will stay patient and stay invested and there are much better times ahead for us we could move very quickly on the upside just as we dropped on the downside. Keep the faith.
theiceberg - you come across as someone who has missed a superb opportunity in GGP and is in complete denial about its Great potential. As Jerry points out there are respectable brokers, gold experts and mining experts who enthuse about its Great potential. I am also invested here and recognise that NM’s crusade to go it alone is potentially the right approach in the medium term but in a jurisdiction which is challenging on a number of fronts, therefore the discount applied by the market is clearly higher than you are prepared to acknowledge explaining the price today. I am here for the potential of a buy-out and I hope it happens. Getting the gold out of the ground in an economic manner in just a few years with a world class partner next door is virtually nailed on with GGP but it is not what SOLG can boast as yet. Perhaps you should show more class and acknowledge that others have taken a position with some risk In the early days in another stock and it is coming good rather than denigrating the company which you have done multiple times on here. You are clearly someone with real passion for SOLG and for good reason but as one US President once said, comparison is the envy of joy! I am sure that SOLG will come good, but when that will be is the question.
Peakview - of course you are correct. I can’t help but think that the well paid CEO of a public company should also know that hence I remain circumspect about AH’s experience and ability to deliver significant shareholder value. There is limited interest on this board as there is little to feed off and so we just wait patiently for news which may stimulate fresh buying interest. The relatively small free float and sticky holders can be a positive if new buyers appear but I see long term retail investors significantly under water. Some may argue that the scars from the past are still visible within the market hence we are off the radar/watchlists for some. CalE are in a perfect position with an ever deeper understanding of the opportunities and risks inherent within IOG’s assets yet still have no equity interest to ignite the flame. The cynic in me suggests that if they see a lot of value here they will want to pay as little as possible should they Intend to shift their focus from project to equity investment and therefore it suits them that we have flatlined. Patience is the watchword here hence I pop in only once a month or so like most other lth’s. The future of IOG is in the hands of the Administrator and LO as they will decide either to offload if they lose patience or indeed what offer they should accept if a bid if forthcoming. Until then.......
Tom8080- I may be misguided, in your opinion, but as someone who has allocated capital in the real world, in public companies I am very comfortable with the process with which a company decides to do so rather than just talking about it on a bulletin board. This is a public forum and all opinions are welcome but suggesting that others like Maverick7 and I ‘misunderstand’ and are ‘misguided’ suggests to me that you believe that your opinion is the only opinion that is worthy which simply means that I will not waste my time in engaging with you. I have been around long enough to know not to waste another post discussing this. Best of luck with your investment if you bought in recently expecting a share buy-back.
Tom8080- AA is an ex-investment banker turned oil executive as you know and will no doubt be spending a fair bit of time comparing returns from different strategies. In fact he will have a clear base case which may be to do nothing more in the short term other than to deliver current plans and to build cash reserves up a little more as investment in the business is curtailed pro tem due to the oil price drop. I am never that convinced about share buybacks as they almost imply that the BOD are bereft of opportunities or are risk averse none of which I can be convinced is the case in the current market to be a true reflection of reality. They will assess any potential transactions against other strategic options and decide to proceed based on a combination of potential economic returns, execution risk and market outlook. To undertake a share buy-back will only happen IMO should AA feel that all other opportunities including the base case are non-starters. He has no idea what impact say a £100m buy-back programme will have on the share price. If it only rises a little it will be seen as a waste of £100m. So, IMO I prefer to wait for one of the other strategic options to present themselves when the time is right and we should trust AA to do that.
Just in case anyone is interested.
https://www.revenue.ie/en/companies-and-charities/documents/dwt/dwt-claim-for-refund.pdf
As far as I can see, II are not exempt and therefore should submit a DWT claim form for their block holdings to avoid individual shareholders submitting individual claims. I have sent details of the form to II just in case they were not aware!
Munchbox - I am also a little nervy at the moment and sold down a few dogs in the last month and took the hit, now with only 6 investments versus an average of 20 across many years. Thankfully I bought into GGP 2 years ago which is very exciting and also a great hedge as a gold explorer. As others have said I am very comfortable in RRE with a big chunk and look forward to hearing from AA as we emerge from the doldrums and businesses start to fire up their engines again. AA seems to be a tough cookie and I sense he will not throw away a very strong position in the sector lightly by taking unnecessary risks. We have yet to learn of the adverse commercial consequences for so many companies of lockdown and a low oil price and low demand but sadly there will be quite a few losers and those with deep pockets and short arms will probably prevail.
Munchbox - My concern is the US as all of their main markets are toppy IMO added to which the Trump China Sabre rattling could precipitate a big drop and UK always suffers. Like it or not despite the fact that average PE’s across all UK Exchanges are at a large discount to US we will fall as fast as the US. Irritating that when the US sneezes, we catch a cold but that is what happens. Regardless, if you are invested here with the time to wait for £20 + again, I am quite confident that we will see it again perhaps Not this year or next year but it doesn’t matter to me too much when it is but wouldn’t be disappointed if it arrived quicker than expected. People trading this will have a different set of tactics and nowt wrong with that as long as they keep it clean I have no problem with traders making a turn too.
I am also out after 2 painful years here. A sub-standard CEO with a bad cough and juvenile presentation skills does not convince me that he has what it takes to deliver a pizza never mind a fully producing lithium mine. I take a large loss on the chin here and will move on to find companies with CEO’s who possess relevant skills in all areas, a significant stake and a CV of delivery rather than dither and delay! Good luck those on here who have been here for a couple of years or more, you have more patience than me.
NewKOTB - not convinced at all that he would entertain a modest £21 as that is not a knockout bid in my book with all the cash on the BS. Also, not so easy doing the same all over again. Just wave away modest bids If they ever transpire and keep looking for opportunities as RRE is a much better platform to grow from rather than to start all over again. Always important to remember that doing it again does not always end well just look at Parkmead which is proving that Tom Cross had his moment with Dana and his midas touch has left him IMO never to return It seems. I want AA to stay patient and I hope he doesn’t buy something just because the market may expect it.
I too have considered that a PE bid is just as likely as AA attempting to take the business private however I sense that AA would probably not enjoy being at the beck and call of a PE owner which, from personal experience, can be pretty uncomfortable as they want their pound of flesh multiplied many times over. My conclusion therefore is that unless any PE bid was knockout and he wanted to retire and not stick around I can’t see this happening either as AA would not answer to others IMO and indeed who would pay a knockout price in the O&G sector at this time? So, as much as I would like to double my money in 6 months or so the realistic outcome is for our share price to steadily move north in coming months with some correlation to Brent and to gradually close the valuation gap that is apparent looking at our our balance sheet. Of course, should RRE become the offeror of an attractive company at a good price then that is an entirely different matter as the slide rules will be busy again.
Dana- having spent some time working at The Takeover Panel ( on secondment) in a previous life when I had less grey hairs, I can say with a great deal of confidence that this sort of action would be exactly what The Panel would be all over like a rash. People like us and many others who are shareholders who would feel somewhat aggrieved would raise the alarm In short order and it would be investigated. I know that The Panel are often, rightly, criticized at times for not being tough enough but I have been involved in concert party investigations in the past and watched the Panel ruin the careers of those involved so a very high risk strategy with people who have a lot to lose, and yes, a lot to gain but they are of often spins and not people like Austin. I am also struggling to understand why we remain at these levels when it looks pretty clear that the OPEC plus countries are respecting the cuts and additional cuts will come from reduced wells, storage is slowly reducing and oil futures are less volatile etc. Puzzling yes but look at the share prices of many other companies across sectors and you could say the same. I will sit tight as I invested, thankfully, as it dropped below £12 and kept buying so I’m in a decent position. Austin will be agitated but if he wants to take the company private he will have to pay a fair price for it. Not convinced this is likely in the near term but will become more likely if we remain here after the world has emerged from lockdown and Brent moves above $40 and stays there. All IMO.
I have been invested here for a couple of years now and have always been chilled about the long term prospects. Yes, the drop as an exclusively property related stock is inevitable but with forward sales in the bag and no pressure on cash/balance sheet this is a steal at these levels. This share however is very much ‘under the radar’ with a low profile but they have a lot to shout about and I would like to see greater confidence from the CEO as it is justified. I live in Bath and know the new sites they will develop here and they are perfect for student/BTR within a trendy part of the City which is being developed from old industrial wasteland. Universities will return as education is everything and the demand for decent rental units remains unabated. This is a solid investment IMO on almost any measure at 148p.
LSE will have approached GH iMO to do this interview given the increasing interest in GGP from LSE users as well as the general excitement around gold stocks at the moment. Nice to create wider exposure to other investors who use LSE and who will be thinking about hedging their equity investments in other sectors with some gold related exposure. Important to highlight that if we can rely, broadly, on Hannam’s estimate that GGP’s 30% share of the decline and associated costs to shift the ore to Telfer of USD34m is a good starting point, our 5% fair market value would only require fair market value of Hav to be circa USD700m to fund our share of the capital costs fully which is rather cautious based on most forecasts So, GH is making some key statements here as an experienced negotiator that, unlike some small caps, GGP has a strong position either to continue to match NCM through to production by either using debt funding for the full costs should NCM/GGP fail to agree on fair value for the 5%, or to use the cash proceeds of the 5% sale to fund their share. So, NCM will have limited leverage and will offer a good price for the 5% or for the 30% depending on the MRE and FS outcome. GH is ensuring at each stage that they are putting the company in the strongest position possible. What more can we ask of an AIM CEO? Makes me think that my other AIM stocks should be dumped at the earliest opportunity.
At least 2 of the special advisers to Hannam worked at MacQuarie in the past and perhaps GH has a connection. Doesn’t matter one way or another but on reading their CV’s there is a lot of experience at Hannam To draw upon and they are well equipped to support GGP as required with any M&A support. For me, one of the most positive data points withIn their report was their estimate of the costs for the extraction from Havieron including a new road to truck the HG ore to Telfer. Only $34m US for GGP’s share assuming they retain 30% which could be funded in a blink of an eye. Whether or not GGP retain the 30% will be determined in the fullness of time but knowing that it would be relatively easy to fund this cost without diluting down to 25% gives GH a stronger negotiating position IMO.