Member Info for bandit1

I do wonder how many people on here actually understand what is required to take a quoted company private. If this was the intention, those who want to do so, perhaps the Kumani’s supported by private equity, would have to make a cash offer to all shareholders. So, the institutions and private shareholders (all of us) would have an opportunity to vote on the offer. If it is too cheap we vote against it. Bearing in mind that most shareholders are significantly under water here how many would vote for an offer of say 100p which would be a substantial premium? I suspect not that many but there would be some who have either had enough or bought in more recently. Any offer would most likely mean that the short funds would scramble to cover, pushing the price sharply up meaning that expectations of an even better offer would arise. Additionally, there may be trade buyers sitting in the wings who feel that BOO is worth significantly more than say 100p and would join the fray. So, whilst I would certainly not rule it out, to ensure success it is not as simple as making a ‘paultry’ offer with say a 30% premium to current price and win the day as the Kumani’s don’t hold enough stock to force it through. I would like them to try as we would re-rate on the back of short covering and make flush out others in the process.

Jerry S. Borelli has 13m shares and 51.5m options. Our new CEO has 1m shares and 5m options. So, a large holding relative to the other directors to be precise. Allow me to embellish to help you understand my inference. When a relatively new CEO with almost no skin wants to raise at the year’s low, he must bring the other directors onside including those with much larger holdings who will be impacted in the pocket, short term. So, for Borelli to support this given his position as Chair for a number of years should be acknowledged in a positive way. Hope that helps with your understanding.

This could be a case study of what is commonplace on AIM and absolutely nothing will/can be done about it. Those on the inside ( and there will be many people) in Sprott, Cannacord, lawyers, their marker-maker friends and hedge funds friends etc who will have sold from 15p or even higher and are now buying around 8.5p to make hundreds of thousands £ and more. The blame needs to be apportioned in the direction of the regulators and not Shaun Day who has done what he considers best in the circumstances he finds himself in. Don’t forget that Borelli the Chairman has a big holding and will be feeling a little less flush and don’t forget our friends, Five daggers who recently agreed to a lock-in. So, many people today will be feeling slightly bruised at the ease with which some can slam a share price with inside information in the knowledge that they will be able to exit with ease. Those who said that no shorts could exit as the placees were restricted were wrong. So, time will tell if SD will be revered for his strategic and tactical skills. Like others I have been here many years with a plan to hold until production when clarity as to our free cash flow will make it so much easier for the market to attribute fair value. In the meantime, days like this will hopefully be forgotten quickly if we start to see the remaining 45m + shorts cover in the next few weeks at an ever-increasing price so at least we may feel that we have something to show for this Placing.

Likely to be MSCI rebalancing IMO.

Archways - I do wonder if the MSCI global small cap is rebalanced today which has an impact on the UT we see today in round numbers as you have noted previously. I know that this is the day ( quarterly) in which we see additions and deletions. This won’t affect us this time around but not sure if today is one of the 4 quarters they rebalance without us realising. Either way, good to see a modest rise on the back of the Juri JV drilling RNS and let’s hope we can develop some positive momentum after such a torrid 12 months. Those who understand the value of free cash flow from our 30% share of Havieron will know that with a fair wind in 2 years from now we will be a completely different production and exploration company making investment decisions with the luxury of a strong revenue stream. The blatant manipulation we have seen here for some time will be not be possible in the same way 2 years henceforth which is why we are seeing it now IMO.

It seems that this Mac individual provides a lot of research and information, a bit like a librarian. This can be helpful for those who do not have time nor the inclination to do so themselves. He/she does appear to have a blind spot here, in denial perhaps which is understandable. What is much more valuable is experience in situations like this. I have been involved in large M&A transactions throughout my business career as will have others. It is typical for multi-billion £ cross border deals to be done in months, not years. Of course, the integration can take years but in our case it is clear to all apart from a few, that the BOD or the other side have shifted the goalposts on many occasions here over the last 2 years and the communication , along the way from them has been, understandably, framed to support an ailing share price due to a failure to deliver on promises/timescales. I would like to see an unambiguous RNS as others have called for, explaining what, if anything is going on. At least, long suffering shareholders can make a decision to either hold on for the end of the war or preserve their capital. Oh and I am here posting because people like Mac with his rose tinted glasses needs to called out from time to time. No more.

No - everything including the share price has changed and to say otherwise is misleading and disingenuous. Like many I sold out at a significant loss a few weeks ago to preserve capital. I may reinvest in the future, who can tell, but I suspect that the transactions being contemplated have been at best put on ice. I would hope that if they have been shelved completely we would have received notification in accordance with listing regulations. The blue chip lawyers and bankers on both sides would never countenance proceeding in line with any pre-war negotiated agreement IMO. The BOD will be trying to keep alive the transactions which have taken literally years to conclude but sadly, in the midst of what we have seen and about to see with a Russia which will be brought to economic ruin, who can anticipate with any certainty what the future will look like for entities operating in Russia? Sadly, this is yet another promising company which will struggle to deliver what the BOD have promised for much too long. Is it their fault? I would say no, it is the fault of a meglamaniac, but the BOD must be acutely aware that to take 2 years to do a fairly modest deal in corporate terms has been their downfall.

I would like Shaun to provide an update ( as much as he can) on progress re funding. Let’s assume for a moment that arbitration favours our valuation which is higher than SB is prepared to pay for the 5% and he passes up the opportunity. ( perhaps unlikely that he would but not impossible given his tactics to date). We would require significant funding to complete our share of the development costs backed of course by 6.5m oz in our MRE2. How long before he accepts the funding offers he had on the table?

Fair piece by Ian King at Sky. Ask yourself the question - why did the Evraz Board refuse to denounce Putin when it would be an easy thing to do were this is a commercial business with no political influence or interference?! I think we all know the answer with the eclectic mix of directors/ mates of RA. At least the hope could be that the new BOD when it eventually happens ( who will accept a directorship?) will have an opportunity to salvage what is left of the order book and client list. My view is that Evraz plc will never re-list in UK, but continues on Moex in trading mainly in roubles. For those who think that business with Russia will return to what we have been used to after the war ends, need to think again IMO. Russian business will be restricted to China, India and a few others in the Middle East. Sad state of affairs but communism/authoritarianism seems to be back with a vengeance IMO.

Some will say that these awards are to incentivize, others will say that they reward failure. Brad is underperforming in my book. Some of us have many multiples of his own holding bought for cash. I failed to establish his personal holding before I invested so on me I know. All I can say is that he better get his act together across 2022 otherwise long suffering shareholders will get their act together in good time and ensure that votes at the next AGM cannot be ignored as they were last time. Over to you Brad!

Mac4671 espouses bold statements that all could be over soon and LO and behold we are back to normal. That is misleading IMO. Putin is so unpredictable that he could do anything. As he faces economic ruin he is likely to capture privately owned assets without giving it a second thought. To suggest that we should ignore those who have a negative dynamic is irresponsible. You will disappear into a puff of dust of this happened and all those poor souls who were prepared to go along with your guff will have to suffer. This is as high risk as it gets so let’s not kid ourselves it is anything less. All IMO.

Redhamfisted. We are all entitled to our opinion even you, however misguided that may be. My advice to you is to use these bulletin boards to try and learn from your investment decisions. The outcome here may be good or bad, the reality is that no-one knows. We are all trying to understand the consequences of these horrific actions by a meglamaniac who has stolen billions from his taxpayers. The simple point I am making is that when your country is on the brink of financial destruction due to sanctions and the only way to recover the monies frozen is to pass new laws taking ownership of private assets, you will do so. It is a lot easier than going to war and he took that decision only 2 weeks ago. Good luck to you.

I posted yesterday that Abramovich and his concert party could take the company private by making an offer. The news today clearly supersedes that potential outcome and is not a great surprise and IMO this suspension will last for a considerable period of time and may never re-list. A concert party where Abramovich has effective control probably applied to Evraz yet they deny it today which is predictable of the Board who are close friends of Abramovich. What else could they do? He probably told them to issue that statement today, which they will deny, but would in itself confirm the existence of a concert part. Evraz have benefitted from money acquired vis RA from the Russian state and the only person to blame for this sad situation today is his close friend, Putin, and not the UK government. Legal action will do nothing in the short term as no-one is interested within this jurisdiction of hearing the pleadings. I agree with others here that the assets will most likely find their way into the hands of ‘new’ shareholders in the future within Russia which is a incredibly sad for the employees who are of course innocent bystanders. All IMHO.

Understandable frustration here today. Abramovich and his concert party could make a low offer secure in the knowledge that they should secure enough votes. This may or may not happen. These deals take time and with so much uncertainty going around, their Investment Bank advisors will caution them given the uncertainty and the IB’s have their own reputations to think about too. Cash is king in times like this. Billions of £ of paper value are being marked down for Abramovich and other oligarchs atm so they will all be scrambling around looking at options to minimise the pain as their compatriots continue to rain misery down on a peaceful nation. Makes you think about what is really important. Setting aside the moral dilemma this is as risky as it gets IMO. Greed will encourage some to buy on the dip tomorrow am but others will pass up the opportunity and wait and see what is on Putin’s list of companies which will be hamstrung by new laws.

Time - I have been investing for 30 years yet I am often surprised at the clear manipulation that goes on especially on AIM yet there are also opportunities like this one. Nowadays I tend to just shrug it off and stick to the fundamentals. I invested here given the involvement of 2 big players and the fact that we are on a free carry in Colombia. The jurisdiction is not perfect but better than some ( Chile and Peru). Our market cap is modest and the potential upside is very attractive from here but many are trapped from the highs of last year and some will have sold out over the last year keeping the price down. Many of those posting here are traders that is obvious to me as modest vol can move the price. We need more buyer who will hold here before we see a take off. Brad is not the most impressive CEO ( he is a GEO) but that is just a title. He needs to communicate more frequently, he needs to put his hand in his pocket and buy shares with his own cash. That does concern me but perhaps he will at some point. I voted my significant holding against him remaining as a director to give him a kick up the backside yet it did not appear to show in the numbers at the AGM. I will retain my holding and watch our esteemed partners ramp up their drilling and take control of the asset in Colombia. The other JV’s are a side show for now. If you can afford to hold for a couple of years you could make a decent return here if the drilling delivers decent results. At some point the exit could be hat Newmont or Agnico or both buy us out. Gold is still in the ground so spot price changes are not the driver here IMO. A good hedge in the current market it just does not feel like it today.

Little trader - obvious that you do not understand what is required to take a listed company private. It requires an offer to be made to all shareholders just like any other offer. Now, which of the many funds who have bought in at £1, £2, £3 etc will be happy to accept, say a £1 offer even though this would be at a 30% premium to todays price. None - IMO unless the BOD have been lying to us about their growth over the last few years and it is all a big scam. Now, I think that the May be considering this as an option given the farcical share price but they would have to offer 150p plus for any of the big shareholders to think about. It would be good to see the shorts closing if an offer did come in though.

The BOD are at the mercy of Putin in terms of his ongoing invasion of Ukraine and potential future sanctions which could be more impactful on the company than we have seen so far. That is the risk writ large for existing and new investors. My biggest concern is that whomsoever has been involved in this complex series of transactions will have put further discussions on hold at best. If licences are awaiting they will be on hold, if cash is awaited either from lending or from the coffers of the buyers that will be put on hold, as lenders even from foreign institutions will not lend to acquire assets in Russia at a time like this. Furthermore, the buyer or buyers of the assets will wait and see how this plays out as this is a binary play. The longer this war rages, the less likely this deal will happen. All very depressing but I just cannot see the positives here as much as I want to. All IMO.

CNBC interview with Ukrainian Foreign minister a few moments ago. Chilling statement from him “ every Russian double earned will have Ukrainian blood on it”. Now, if that sentiment is shared around the world and the reaction to Russian business mirror’s BP’s decision, I fear for the future success here despite being an investor here for some time.

So, we find out in a Newcrest presentation to be delivered today by Sandeep Biswas that the MRE2 will be pushed back to August and the FS will be pushed back up to 6 months. If Sean Day was aware of this I suspect that he would have preferred to get ahead of the news so that he could explain to his shareholders, who own 30% of Havieron, why this is. Is this simply a case that NCM forgot to tell Sean like they forgot to tell him that there would be no MRE2 on their results day, or are they playing games? If the relationship is that good what is going on here? And yes, I have owned for a long time and will hold until production where the real value is and after the games have finished!!

My concern given Putin's actions today is that any transaction will, at the very least, be put on hold. There will be legal clauses which potentially could be invoked if a buyer had concerns about the severity of sanctions or the export of PM's to the West or sanctions on Banks or by blocking access by Russians to the SWIFT system. Until we know more about the severity of further sanctions we are at the mercy of the politicians as ever. Even if the buyers are Russian they may not be in a position to finance the transaction if the Banking system is unavailable to them. Would a Japanese buyer continue with the deal now? Sadly, we can only wait and see. my decision here was always a high risk investment based on dealing with Russia. i made a wrong call and will have to suck it up. The BOD may regret constant delay here but they will suffer financially more than most.