Member Info for Arfur_Uggins

Ideally, I would like to see the gold price start to show signs of accumulation here for a month or so, around $1720 - $1740 with the odd spike up and down along the way. Hopefully, it will then break out to the upside. There is certainly sufficient bearish sentiment at the moment, which I like.
The problem with forecasts is that the targets are more often than not never reached. Everyone thought gold would go to $920 in 2015, but it made the low at $1042. Two thousand dollar gold was not reached in the 2010s. The wilder claims of $15000 for the future, I doubt will ever be seen. Still, it's nice to dream.
There's certainly blood in the streets as far as Centamin is concerned, and more besides. I seem to have made two purchases recently - a very small one a few weeks back that I forgot about - so I'll leave it at that for now. That's enough risk for anyone. I'm highly cautious but hopeful.

Oh dear! I seem to have walked into some sort of combat zone here.
I'm not sure we Sassenachs are 'feeding everyone' at the moment; I think the money printing press is. Besides, North Sea oil was certainly helping Britain in the 80s when our manufacturing industry was smashed - it's just a pity most of the revenue was wasted by keeping people on the dole. So maybe the Scots are due a bit of payback - that's what partnerships are all about.
I have visted a few distilleries in my time, the last (new) one on the Isle of Arran in late 2019. The joke was that the people on Arran would appreciate a bit of global warming.
So, I like Scotland and the Scots. The country has produced far more geniuses per head of population than anywhere else, and encourage education and learning - who else but the English could come out with a phrase: 'he's too clever by half'?
I was a spectroscopist in the Pharmacuetical Industry for many years and one of my great heroes is James Clerk Maxwell. His contribution to humanity is colossal. And Robert Watson-Watt's imagination helped save our island not so long ago! I, for one, would feel a deep sense of loss if Scotland voted for independence (whatever that means), but I would understand why.
Sorry for the off topic, but it is a bit boring just waiting for news.
WTI needs a monthly closing above $67 and then the inflationary wave really starts to kick in. Oil is currently in a bit of a downturn but should pick up again from May - so I'm told. As ever, we'll see. As someone posted earlier, no one agrees on the future oil price. I can't see it affecting RKH too much in the near term, though.

Any country that makes Tunnock's Tea Cakes is OK by me.

I added a couple of Canadian miners during the Thursday session last week on the NYSE. I'll wait for Centamin's results next week and see what the gold price action is looking like. I am thinking of adding another 10 - 15% to Centamin. If gold can reach $1850, I want to see how it gets there. It may give some clues about whether or not the recent bottom is short term or it goes to new highs.
Commercial futures were encouraging again last week. The link is a nice graphical display. Just put GC in the 'selected instrument' box instead of EC. The rest is self explanatory. The green line is the hedge funds (trend followers) and the blue line is the commercials (smart money contrarians - like us).
http://www.timingcharts.com/

Yes, I've just voted no to the latest attempt to take my shares from me on the cheap.
I'm sure you all read Martin Armstrong's blog. It saved me last February, to be honest, but his political viewpoint can get me down at times. Anyway, one of today's articles talks about inflation coming this decade and there should be a downturn in the Dow this month and up again from May. Obviously the Nasdaq and S&P are leading so their downturns are in progress. I thought you may like to read and make of it what you will.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/welcome-to-the-wave-of-inflation-into-2024/

CDSI1962
You do realize that an awful lot of Centamin shareholders would love an average of 125p?
If you're a trader then I would advise you to take up tennis instead.
If you're a long-term investor then it would appear you have taken a position in a share that, if your forecast for the price of gold turns out to be correct, should serve you well in the future. You will also enjoy a dividend every so often, and have the right to shout at those in charge of the company, albeit remotely, should they incur your displeasure.
If you saw the price at which some equity funds bought Centamin shares, it would certainly show a loss of more than 17%. It wasn't only PIs that bought over £2.
Anyway, whatever you decide, I hope it works for you.

I'm glad you've bought, Mary. I was beginning to think bad things here reading some of the posts today. I'm just keeping mine for the long term. I'll tell you why I'm keeping mine for the long term. I had a look at my records this morning after my purchase to update the spreadsheet. The following is why I don't really trade:
19th Oct 2016, purchase Sylvania Platinum 30000@8.15p
27th Oct 2016, purchase Sylvania Platinum 45000@9.2p.
1st Nov 2016, sold Sylvania Platinum 75000@9.31p
Profit = $360.78
I never bought again until 20 Dec 2020 @84.7p. Take a look at the price now.
The moral of this story is that I tend to buy cheap but I am an impatient so and so. It is a lesson I have learnt.
Have a great weekend all.

I think they'll be forced to ditch the offer. Copper is in a bull market which should last most of this decade. There will be the usual ups and downs to the price, but copper and oil will be the best places to invest. I rejected the offer and will continue to do so until they give up. I'm a very LTH here.

Overall, I think the $US gold chart is showing a bullish pattern. I know it’s almost in a technical bear market, but that’s just for journalists. We had a gap in the gold price on US open the other day; so it wouldn’t surprise me to see it filled today ~ $1680ish. That may be the second chance for traders to board. Remember, we now have a gap to fill from US close last night ~$1724ish. I am hoping for gold to climb the ‘wall of worry’ to around $1850ish over the next three or so months – for the safe haven trade.
I do think gold is in a consolidation phase. Back in the 2010s, the big consolidation price was $1200. Is it $1600s now? Where it actually bottoms is anyone’s guess, but trying to buy the bottom is a mug’s game. I just try to buy at a price I’m happy with (nice piece of bad English there). I noticed Mark Bristow voiced his feelings to the industry recently by saying no large miners can make a profit with gold at $1300. We know banks bought at $1500. So take your pick. The buying level must have raised over the last few years – commercials are going long now so $1600s feels right.
Newmont’s recent purchase is a clue that takeovers are tempting, and I think Centamin has ‘chase me’ written all over it. The price hit from last August must put it in the frame. It wouldn’t surprise me if we heard something this month. Hence, I was happy to add a small purchase this morning. However, I do think copper and oil will be the more profitable areas for investment this year. I think silver and platinum will probably outperform gold. Gold is resting, largely, but I suspect I will be glad to be a holder in the longer run.

I've just added 10% to my core holding on gap closure this morning. I'm really no trader, so I will drip feed over the rest of this year to make up a 50% increase overall. The dividend will be nice, I hope, and I'm putting my faith in the management to get Centamin ready for the good times. I hope I'm not going to regret this!

Maybe Mr Market will fill that gap from this morning (105.4p) before it reaches your target?

The people are very lovely and helpful on this board and genuinely want the best for all. Many have had/ do have high-powered jobs and are extremely knowledgeable. But you need to see professional financial advice to talk over your circumstances and hopes for the future etc. Remember, the road to hell and all that....

I urge you to take Autonomy1's advice. Seriously.

The gold COT data from last week did indeed show a healthy portion of longs added by the commercials and a pile of shorts reduced. If we get the same this week, it is good news. Monday afternoon’s retest of the low in gold’s price didn’t produce a run on stop losses, and with the current price action I’m hopeful of a climb to the upper line of the downward channel, which should be around the $1850ish level in a couple of months’ time. There will be lots of resistance there. After that it's $1900 and $1950.
Gold is the leading indicator for now and is the first out of any downtrend in markets overall. Although the other metals are currently bouncing, I don’t think their corrections are over yet. Oil is still only teetering and the Dow is putting in one final leg up before a pullback is expected. We’ll see. It’s interesting that the guru Armstrong’s forecast for gold was a peak last year (correct) and volatility for the first half of this year (correct). Things then get calmer, but of particular note was that the major trend change does not occur until next year – possibly around April/May. I was hoping we would see a rise to at least nominal highs this year but I’m now thinking that gold is just gaining energy for the coming whirlwind.
I’m hopeless at investing, and really don’t trade short term, so I have put off buying solid gold for the meantime. For a sterling buyer it really was a big decision not to buy recently. Will it get any cheaper at the turn next year (if it comes to pass)? Anyway, I think oil and copper will be good for the rest of the year once corrections are finished, so I plan to try to build up some cash there and then get physical. I haven’t added to Centamin either – just happy to hold but hoping for good things.
Will the 2020s be like the 1920s or 1970s? The music was OK in the 70s – well, some of it. This was a good one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40dvcIDGIfo
Regards
Mystic Meg

'India has asked state refiners to speed up the diversification of oil imports to gradually cut their dependence on the Middle East after OPEC+ decided last week to largely continue production cuts in April, Reuters reported. India, the world’s third-biggest oil importer and consumer, imports about 84% of its overall crude needs with over 60% of that coming from Middle Eastern countries, which are typically cheaper than those from the West. India, hit hard by the soaring oil prices, has urged producers to ease output cuts and help the global economic recovery. In response, the Saudi energy minister told India to dip into strategic reserves filled with cheaper oil bought last year. Most of the OPEC+ producers, led by the world’s top exporter Saudi Arabia, last week decided to extend most output curbs into April.'

It will only get more painful in the years ahead unless the likes of HE and RKH are allowed to do their job.

Here, here. Goldgnome for PM and MrT as chancellor.
I'd vote for you.

Mogger = Sherlock Holmes.
Try to outwit at you peril!

fecm
I'm not too sure how accurate these charts turn out to be, but at the moment everything is running according to this lot's plan. If the ((c)) leg reaches the ((a)) leg high, that's some way to go this decade.
It's why I keep emphasizing that Harbour and Rockhopper need to press on with some urgency. Harbour have a team in PMO that can do this project. I would hate for Harbour to start hanging about waiting for farm-in partners. If they do I fear they will miss the boat somewhat, or at least not be producing at the optimum time.
Anyway, we'll get pullbacks in the oil price, of course, but the forecast looks so good. Really, oil will be such a good inflation hedge in the years to come in this decade - better than gold! And RKH is so news dependent, I'm not sure what effect, if any, a fall in oil price will affect RKH's share price at the moment.
GLA
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/uso-united-states-oil-fund-longer-term-cycles-elliott-wave-2/

'stop losses THERE'

Yes, IGLU and Tony's point is perfectly valid from this morning. However, on the way up, the $1680ish level was a high accumulation point and people will have stop losses their. So beware the Bullion Banks don't try to run those out - hence my saying that $1650 could come about. I'm not saying it will happen but keep it in mind. No idea how it will affect Centamin.
Must dash - have a good weekend all. Catch up soon, I hope.