Member Info for Arfur_Uggins

I don't know about Bishop, but Cameron belongs to that set that thinks they have an entitlement to privilege and rule - it all just falls into their laps by right.
I loved your conclusion, Goldgnome; it's set me up for the day. Thanks.

Thanks all for reading. It's very sobering data on gold, I think.
Last Friday, my plumber came to repair the bathroom shower (yes, on Good Friday - he actually came to isolate the water supply to it the previous Sunday!) While his mate was actually doing the work - who does a first class job, by the way - I got talking to the governor and he said he'd been left a load of money from his mother's estate. The money was in a building society earning about 0.05% interest and he was thinking of buying some gold. He'd never bought any shares or gold ever before - he owns several houses that he lets.
I showed him some graphs and data and gave him some gold merchants' websites to look at. Here is the fact that I think actually made him decide to investigate further: On the eve of World War I, you could exchange a £1 note for a sovereign but today you would need £310 to buy a current issue sovereign. The reason for holding a sovereign is that, over the long run or cycle or whatever you want to call it, you should be able to buy the same goods today (if they could be equivalent and available) as you could have on the 3rd August 1914. To buy those goods today would cost you £310, of course.
He was astounded at how much the currency had been debased over the years. I pointed out that obviously there are times when gold is cheaper and below that purchasing power, but also times when you could buy more goods. But the essential point is that debasing money is a hidden tax on people and showing him the long-term sterling gold price chart really hit home. So if he wanted his offspring to keep some wealth for their children and grandchildren, there aren't many better ways to do it than buying gold coins and passing them on.
A little while ago, someone posted on here about his wife wanting to buy some shares for the first time. She had been happy letting her money sit in an account earning next-to-nothing interest for about the last decade, while the stock market had relentlessly risen, and only now decided buying some shares was a good thing.
I think the two stories above show how people are moving out of money and into assets. Although they perhaps don't realize it, they are showing a lack of confidence in the future and government. Some European nations have negative interest rates in order to try to get people to stop saving and start spending (raising the velocity of money). What do people do instead? Well, apart from buying gold and shares, many just take the money out of the bank and stick it in a jar at home, which makes that money idle and causes deflation, not inflation as the government hopes. Many of the bigger institutions are actually using their money to buy foreign stocks and land (in Turkey!) thereby draining the country of capital.
I know I'm preaching to the converted, but the West is being run by the wrong people.

The 'What about gold?' section - you'll need to scroll down - is an interesting piece of light reading.
https://goldseek.com/article/technical-scoop-archego-liquidation-biden-stimulus-golden-cycle-market-bull-fed-backing

And I second that. After all, if there is any Centamin news it gets discussed more than well enough on this board. It's not as if anything important gets neglected. I'm not one for stopping anyone discussing anything they want to here - I'm learning something new every day. I'm not obliged to read everything, and I don't think it's necessary for people to keep apologizing because it's off topic.
Incidentally, I still don't know why the Centamin results were delayed last month. I must be missing something.

Yes, Goldgnome, the problem now is how to stay slim and not make myself sick.

Happy days!

Mr T
Whether rightly or wrongly, and without really being able to express themselves particularly coherently, it would appear from the article that many Leave voters were objecting to the economic consequences of political idealogy.
At least, that is the short summation to my answer.
A

Don't forget that Linda Cook also mentioned a while back that Harbour would negotiate terms with suppliers to get the best possible deals. I doubt if that would have been possible before the new company came into being. So I think some hard bargaining is about to begin with all concerned parties.

Spindler
Most politicians certainly make it easy for the electorate to become very cynical about politics. I remember reading a book called 'The Jekyll and Hyde Years' by Michael Stewart whilst studying economics in the early 1990s. It basically shows how all political parties when in opposition, promise all sorts of goodies, but when elected become 'the government'. It was essentially about the 1950s and 60s, but is true today.
I've never lived in a marginal contituency - they have, with one exception, been hugely conservative ones. Where I grew up, the little old dears that lived in my area supported the Conservatives like some people support a football team. If you ever gave a hint that you might be even slightly left wing, you would instantly become poison. It makes me smile today to read in the press about 'the looney left' being ever more intolerant of differing opinions. It takes one to know one. I'd class myself as being fairly centre, possibly slighty left on some issues, although I'm not a political animal.
I don't rate any of our politicians today, and I think the government is full of children. I don't think a PM who hasn't yet mastered using a comb, is likely to deal competantly with the economic and social issues of a middling modern state.
I don't think all politicians are in it solely for the money or ego trip. I had a lot of time for Robin Cook, Alistair Darling, Claire Short and Mo Mowlem. For politicians, I think they were in it for the right reasons. I watched question time once when Claire was on and the distress on her face when they asked her about the Iraq war, and how parliament was deceived by Blair, was so plain to see.
So, I must admit to not having voted much in my lifetime, although I did vote in the EU referendum. I do feel sorry about not voting, when I think of the pain and suffering so many endured for my right, but I thank them wholeheartedly. It is, after all, the only peaceful means I have of removing those from office who put themselves above me.
If purchasing gold is a function of losing confidence in government, then we should find the price rising nicely in the next few years as more and more people come round to your way of thinking.

Yes, I'd much prefer Centamin to remain independent. If Barrick took over, it would most probably mean becoming a Barrick shareholder rather than getting a cash buyout. If your shares are in an ISA, you would then get Barrick shares on the Canadian stock market, rather than NYSE, which, for me anyway, would incur quite large selling costs. I found this out when Randgold was merged. The currency conversion cost was heartbreaking.

Very interesting, Rebess. I have already said before something along the lines of making sure my Centamin average is about £1.20. Pure speculation, obviously, but Mark Bristow has a habit of taking over/merging with other companies when gold is fair value.

Give them enough rope, Mr T. It'll all end in tears - I'm just not sure for whom.

Mr T and Mr B (and Siko)
I think you're right to live and let live. Some people do like to argue, so best let them argue with themselves.
It's one thing to be waiting to buy Centamin for 80p; but a word to the wise: I wouldn't want to be shorting gold this month.
Happy holiday everyone.

It's always a source of amazement to me when I flick through the TV channel listings sometimes during an evening that there is always at least one programme about Hitler - Nazi death squads, Hitler's last day... you name it. That **** casts the darkest of shadows over the world even today.
If I were to mention that Edward Jenner's time on earth was spent on discovering something that save the lives of billions of living creatures, most of the people in the world wouldn't even know who Edward Jenner was. And yet his work is of seemingly upmost importance right now! And, he was English.
It reminds me, in some ways, of that finest ending to any novel written in the English Language:
'But the effect of her being on those around her was incalculably diffusive: for the growing good of the world is partly dependent on unhistoric acts; and that things are not so ill with you and me as they might have been, is half owing to the number who lived faithfully a hidden life, and rest in unvisited tombs.' Middlemarch ~ George Eliot (who was also English).

I have found that technical analysis is a very poor predictor of an individual company's future share price, generally speaking. An example of this is when I take a look at NewGold's (NYSE:NGD) share price over a number of years. Elliot wave analysis cannot really take into account the fact that this company had to sell one of its three mines a couple of years ago, and have a round or two of rights issues, just to stay alive. It's fine now, but the share price was knocking around $2.50 at the peak last year when gold was at a nominal all time high. Several years ago, it got to about $8.00 (I think) when gold hit the $1920 high.
Technical analysis is a bit better when looking at commodites, for example. You can get a general trend to fit but I wouldn't use TA alone. Most large institutions use TA - that's probably why the tax payer has to bail them out every so often.

Gold in sterling terms has made a classic ABC correction where the A and C wave are almost equal in length. Also, WTI needs a monthly closing above $67 before the inflationary wave really starts to kick in. The estimate time for this is during the summer. The Fed will then either have to allow interest rates to rise or start to control the 10 year bond yield. I think we all know the answer. Obviously, CPI won't show raging inflation because it's a meaningless measure - like the rate of unemployment! Since markets are forward looking (or so we're told) I get the sense that gold should be near the turn - I've thought it for a while now. Markets look 6 months ahead?
I could be wrong (it wouldn't be the first time), but I don't think 80p for Centamin will be seen for many years. It's too cheap now!
Incidentally, the poor will really suffer over the next few years. Not only have most workers had poor pay rises (if any) since the financial crisis, they are about to get another severe smack through inflation.

I just get the feeling that gold is giving me a second chance to get in here in sterling terms. I can't see that major holders will sell at these levels, not with knowing what's to come. I'll hold fire for a little while longer but it just goes to show how getting over oneself is what making money in these markets is all about.
Thanks everyone for your Centamin results analysis. I wasn't around to view them at the time but have now caught up. I'm happy with the way things are going.

Mr Bond
Having all that engine work carried out on your Aston Martin must have cost a pretty packet. Still, you'll get all that money back from your Centamin investment in the next three or four years.
Happy motoring.
A

A first class post if ever I saw one!

Big tick for you there Ovets.
Now, India wants to reduce its reliance on middle eastern countries for its oil supply. How would it be if India paid its dues to Cairn thereby allowing Cairn to join the FIs project. India could then have high quality oil and everyone would be happy. How could it be more simple?

That just about sums it up. Gold is the ultimate risk-free asset. When the risk is on, nobody wants gold and it languishes in these long, drawn-out phases where investors begin to build small positions and put the majority of their money into risk. We can point to as many gurus and articles we want about all the money printing and how Sh@t our politicians are and how rigged the whole system is. It ain't gonna do squat diddley to the gold price. It is what it is. We know what should happen but the world just doesn't listen to us. We then start to beat ourselves up for not selling when we thought we should have.
Let me say that in the world of investing, being down 20% or more on a share is just noise to me. I know some people want their money out now but there's nothing I can do about that. Sorry, but don't be angry. If you saw my portfolio in times past you would say the best thing we can do for that poor ***** is shot her. But I wrote some time ago that when you buy a share for £1 and it drops to 70p, you look like an idiot. When that share then goes to £5 you look like genius.
it's just a game which we are all trying to learn. And we won't stop trying because when we can play it, that's when the game ends.