Member Info for Arfur_Uggins

And I listened.
Almost half way there.
£1 by Feb next year then I'm out!
GLA

Mike33
Some people on this board were saying it.

Some great posts here, which I'll try and give my view on today if I get time (won't you look forward to that?).
I'd feel quite comfortable buying gold around the $1650 mark. That may not be the bottom and it may linger at lowly levels for a while. But at $1650, I don't feel I'd be hard done by and I think a lot of accumalation will take place around that price.

Zambianminer
First of all you ask mrtibbles to refrain from posting about the EU and then the next minute you put a link on about tariff reductions which would not occur had Britain remained in the EU, and ask for his/her views.
As you are aware, I am new to this board, and a privilege it is not to be asked to f@+K off for my more often than not unworthy views. However, I believe I'm missing something here. Will you allow me into your secret? I say this with a smile and light heart and find it all highly amusing. Thanks for the laughs.

There's no stopping oil, so it seems. Massive $WTI resistance at $63.9 just blown away. Keep going! I bet Durrant wishes he had Sealion pumping now.
Oil out-of-fashion, anyone?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDrZ2Ln6aBE

Classy!

Very funny, mrtibbles. How do you know Italians don't have small ****ers? (How does Boris Johnson know they do?)
Is it your opinion that all markets are fiddled? I'm just curious.

My best guess is that they are healthy corrections and will be a good buy again when completed. Gold is the leader and now copper, silver, platinum are following and oil is teetering. Hopefully, gold will be the first out. Hence, Centamin is a hold and I am expecting long positions to be taken on futures - we'll see in the gold COT figures on Friday. I'm just letting it play.

No, he is a computer scientist, into AI. He worked as a fund manager and knows everything except the price of gold next week.
I'm an economist - but I do have a good sense of humour (most of the time).
Regards

Yes, Goldgnome, it's still a bit too early in the morning here to even think about it. My colleague can be a sad cow a times (I'm glad she doesn't read this board!).
But, if you really think about, it's an amazing question. You take away the reasons given by those (Martin Armstrong for eg.) for being locked down, which is essentially that the west is doomed economically and our leaders are trying to avoid an uprising blah de blah, and you're left with a straight yes or no option.
If yes, then it has massive implications for future society - social distancing, lock downs on the arrival of the next infection, what does the economy look like... just let you imagination run wild. Is that a society we are prepared to live in?
I'll say one thing (this is a Centamin board after all so apologies to others). In the late 1880s, there was a nasty flu pandemic (Asiatic/Russian). It was very virulent but not a big killer - you can look it up on Wiki. The Spanish flu at the end of WW1 was thought to be a mutation of that (H1N1) and we all know how that ended. The thing is, older people at the time were not really affected so badly by the Spanish flu. It was the young who really suffered. It is thought that those older people who were around during the Asiatic flu had built up some resistance. The thing I fear the most is for the younger people of today not getting that same immunity because of lock down. I know we have vaccines but how effective will they be for any future mutations?
Of course, if your answer to the question is no, then you are a fully paid-up member of the Martin Armstrong Appreciation Society.
Boris Johnson or Martin Armstrong? I feel sick all of a flash!

Hi Goldgnome.
A colleague asked me this question yesterday: Imagine if Britain's economy had low and stable private and public debt, and was at full employment with low inflation and its people were so happy with the way the government was running the country that half the female population pined to have Boris Johnson's babies (what a dreadful thought). Would the government shut down the economy on the arrival of Covid 19?
Thanks for your posts.

The latest gold COT data showed our Bullion Bank friends reducing their short positions in a hurry, as expected. Will this week see a repeat, together with a healthy portion of longs thrown in? Building up their longs will be handy when gold heads towards all time nominal highs. They can build shorts again on the way there in anticipation of the next down wave. It’s the same old game. Have they covered enough yet?
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-february-26-2021
That great monetary policy research centre, Japan, has exported its latest practice to the world - targeting nominal bond yields. The Australians are keen. American debt owners have fired a warning shot – ‘look at Japan and Europe; they have destroyed their bond markets. Do you want the same here?'
It doesn’t matter; we have leaders who can control the climate and disease and money and... people. It’s no longer a question of whether or not the virus escaped from a weapons laboratory and we mustn’t spook the little people, or the virus is very benign but a wonderful opportunity to ‘build back better’ under our Great Reset. What matters is that people are losing confidence in government. The rush from public to private assets is accelerating. The proles are voting for people who are not in the club. We must take greater control. History repeats.
If bond yields are held steady the only buyers of government debt will be the government (using printed money), or those forced to buy bonds. An awful lot of money will be trying to find another home. It’s flowing east. Oh well, there goes my future pension! Perhaps I should think about taking out 25% of that non-existent fund to be and buy gold before it’s too late. Gold’s going cheap for sterling buyers now. Can I get it cheaper?
Here’s my dilemma: I know the ‘private’ bubble will burst one day. That would normally be the time to go to cash. What if cash no longer exists? Do I hold assets and watch their value sink? At least I’ll have something other than an empty digital currency account. I must have a home. How do I pay for its utilities and upkeep? Answers on a postcard, please!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/dorsey-moves-into-banking-as-promised-to-overthrow-trump/
I do know that the price of gold is telling me something. It’s gone down for 8 months while almost everything else has gone up. It’s the leading indicator – a warning. Has it bottomed? Possibly, in sterling terms, but unlikely since it hasn’t met my criteria for a bottom in $US. Maybe it won’t. This is not an exercise in self-satisfaction. The chances are that any spike down in price will occur overnight and I’m not staying awake just for that. So I'll miss a bottom anyway. I just want to make the correct decision. I can’t afford to lose money. I’m holding Centamin in the hope its leaders are better at their job than our leaders. They will pay me while I wait to add. In the meantime, it's a traders' paradise.

'Our bond yields are substantially higher than Germany’s, indicating that hopes of recovery are better advanced.'

Irrespective of one's views about Brexit, the above line is worthy of the Clown Hat of the Year award for 2021. And we're not even through with February yet.
I stopped reading after that.

Well done, Tornadotony. I respect that decision and your input.

Well, I bought my shares last April as a very risky bet (something I don't normally do). I've held them through all the ups and downs. With oil in a bull market and no real prospect of a stock market crash( shuddup!) for some time (but with some scarey moments along the way), I think I'll keep my shares now.
Tullow's gonna make it. I don't think that £1 price tag looks so silly now.
I'm so pleased for all the LTH's here. Enjoy the ride!

I have been looking at the unprecedented number of short positions taken on the US dollar by speculators, and the corresponding ‘longs’ by the commercial (smart?) money. There is huge resistance around the 89 – 88 level for $DXY. Of course, the dollar’s fall can continue for a long time, even from this extreme position. However, this, together with the almost total ‘risk off’ attitude in the markets at present, leads me to suspect a turning point is close.
https://goldseek.com/article/cot-gold-silver-usdx-report-february-19-2021
The press is all over the ‘new commodity super cycle’ story, which I do believe we have entered, but it is making investors careless. I think it’s likely the stock indices will make a turn down soon, and the $US will rise if only to cool things off for a period. I have been looking at platinum to reach $1375. I’m not sure it will get there and may well have topped with silver, but there is always the possibility of a final spike up for these commodities, and spike down for the dollar.
I’m sure there is more in the tank for stock markets yet, but I’m getting nervous. Consequently, I have de-risked equity positions today but have kept core holdings in Centamin, and a couple of other gold miners and small oil companies, which are due significant announcements.
Bullion banks have clearly been defending the $1950, $1900 and $1850 levels on gold. They want me out of gold so they can load up! I will not oblige. On initial dollar strength, I am looking for the spike down in gold and the massive short covering on the Canadian gold miners. I will then add a 50% increase in position to Centamin. Yes, gold will rise with the dollar just as it has fallen with the dollar since August last year. It is future real interest rates that matter, which just shows the bond market is ‘smarter’ than us PIs.
On the question of ‘off topic’ chat, my view is that Bitcoin, Brexit and the like, do impact the gold market. I look at capital flows and if you are talking about other investments, then it means you are interested in those and not other things. Besides, with the pubs shut, you guys/gals need somewhere to pontificate.
These are just my views and are very probably completely wrong – I can see you shaking your heads already.
Maybe I’m just misty about gold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ko56rc30qdk

I love your optimism, LTT, but I think the 1970s is about to repeat.
It will still be good for Rockhopper, Borders and Harbour, though.
Now, where did I put those flares?

Fair enough Stevo12.
I wonder if any companies may be more tempted to sign up with oil in a bull market and with a world that looks more like the 1970s than the 1920s?
There are more exciting things in life, but it's a scenario I'll be watching for in the years ahead.

'Hi Gentleman , apologies of course if anyone is of the female gender,or indeed trans or non gender, one can never be sure when anyone can be whomever they choose with an internet handle!'
How very perceptive of you, mrtibbles.
Have a great weekend.

People can make more money on bitcoin and Tesla....for the moment.
How does BP and Shell share price compare to your oil price comparison?