Member Info for Arfur_Uggins

Agreed. I can't see why the Italians appeared to have panicked over that piddling amount.
Very disappointing if true. I think I'll wait and see.

Hi Paul,
It wasn't Borgo22 with the one-legged parrot, was it?

Hmm. We'll see.
GLA
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

All,
I hope you don't mind me posting this, but I have copied a post I made on the Rockhopper board a few days' ago.
I am not holding here but I do think Borders have suffered from some very bad luck - they don't seem to have done much wrong! It was all bad timing. I hope things turn out well for you all.

"Stevo12
You make very good points, of course, but Rockhopper is not just Sealion phase 1. There is Isobel Deep, Liz gas, countless other small finds yet to be explored further and all the southern basin barring Borders and Southern's field and acreage. I doubt if the Rockhopper shareholders would let it go tomorrow for less than £1 on current oil price predictions, let alone any guesswork (or hope) about an OM award.
If Harbour have decided to develop the FI, I think snapping B&S for a rainy day is the way to go for them both. If it got a farm-in partner immediately, B&S shareholders would still have to wait ages to realize any reasonable share price increase (and raise capital). An all share offer from Harbour would give them access to the rising oil price from the start and in particular in the next few years when the oil price should really take off.
It's all very exciting, really."

Thanks, Auson, for that. I've had dealings with Newcrest Mining before (and Silver Lake Resources (SLR on ASX) ((Bonza company!))
I think someone read my post this morning regarding platinum - up $70 as i write. Yip!

LTT
I do agree with you about this being a binary decision to some extent. However, if Harbour were to decide not to develop the FIs and wait around a year or two for the oil price to rise and then sell its concerns, I don't think it would spell the end for Rockhopper. Sure, rkh would need an OM payout to survive without massive dilution, but with a higher oil price and rising, those assets will surely tempt other companies to take them on. Obviously, it's not what long-term holders here would want, but I do feel that the oil and gas will be extracted some time.
On the issue of Harbour 'strong arming', I get the impression that the companies involved in the FIs have had a good relationship with one another and with the FI government. Phipps was on the Board when Desire was taken over, as was the FOGL guy (can't remember his name). Rockhopper have been giving back to PMO some of the farmout benefits to progress the project, but I wonder if there wasn't some verbal agreement about returning the favour to RKH when times were better. Maybe I do have rose-tinted glasses, but it seems a very British way of doing business. And I agree with you that an overly aggressive attitude would not be welcome. Being hard-nosed is good business, but there is a fine line!
It's all just speculation, of course, but it's what happens when people are waiting for news and get bored. I do appreciate everyone's contribution here, though; none of us knows what the future holds and any one of the views expressed on this board could come true.
I just hope it's mine.

Yes, the oil price is steadily climbing but no one believes it, do they? Who wants oil anymore? I recently saw a headline saying the oil price is too high now and can't be sustained. Have you seen the share prices of the likes of Exxon or BP? Utterly woeful! All the mid caps like Tullow are loaded with debt and will go bust - Odey thinks so (Goldman Sachs doesn't). Bitcoin is where it's at - and tech stocks.
Surely oil must crash back down soon? Well, it just shows how much energy that catapult's got. These are the best bull markets - no one believes them - same for platinum. Who the hell would be stupid enough to buy gold instead of PayPal?
Oh, the heart of the wise is in the house of mourning; the heart of the fool is in the house of mirth.
And we've only just started.

Stevo12
You make very good points, of course, but Rockhopper is not just Sealion phase 1. There is Isobel Deep, Liz gas, countless other small finds yet to be explored further and all the southern basin barring Borders and Southern's field and acreage. I doubt if the Rockhopper shareholders would let it go tomorrow for less than £1 on current oil price predictions, let alone any guesswork (or hope) about an OM award.
If Harbour have decided to develop the FI, I think snapping B&S for a rainy day is the way to go for them both. If it got a farm-in partner immediately, B&S shareholders would still have to wait ages to realize any reasonable share price increase (and raise capital). An all share offer from Harbour would give them access to the rising oil price from the start and in particular in the next few years when the oil price should really take off.
It's all very exciting, really.

Stevo12, Stevo12, my dear chap. I should hope any OM payout would see rkh above 20 - 30p. I don't think Harbour would try that on ... not if it wants a good relationship with the FI government and me.

8ead
Thanks for that. You seem to have a sound strategy here, so good luck.
It will be a wild ride with the amount of shorts on this share but I would rather be long in a bull market for oil, even though that bull will do everything to throw you off.
Tornadotony
Yes, I knew you did, but you're welcome all the same.

Bond prices fall when inflation rises. It is the bond's yield that rises.
Of course we can expect a pullback in oil price at some stage - it can't just keep going up forever. However, we are in a period where western governments are looking to default on their debts by stoking inflation. Europe has destroyed its bond market with negative interest rates. Big money can only go into either equities or bonds. When the tech bubble bursts, money will flow into the commodity space. Granted, the shorts on the US dollar are at record highs and we all know what happens when everyone is on one side of the boat. But, longer term, we can expect commodity inflation - food, fuel, metals and the like. Incidentally, periods of high inflation have the most devastating impact on the poor. So, not only did they suffer austerity, they will get a kicking from the higher price of neccesities.
So Tullow and its creditors know this, don't they? So, would those creditors prefer to cash in now or keep investing in a company and commodity that will do well for most of this decade? What did Goldman Sachs do just recently?

If the analysis below is correct, you should see the oil price still rising when an RNS regarding the debt financing is issued this month. GLA.
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/trading/oil-cl_f-buying-dips-blue-box-zone/

Auson
The mine will have a useful life (if that is the correct term) until 2049 so that net zero emissions by 2050 can be met.
I reckon if rkh et al get cracking, they can extract the FI hydrocarbons by 2049. So everything is OK. Problem solved. Drill on.

Well, a new coal mine is to be opened in Cumbria, although the coal will be used in steel production (about 10%) and the rest to be exported to Europe.
UKEF next, perhaps, with the oil exported to Israel?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-03/a-new-coal-mine-undercuts-u-k-s-claim-to-climate-leadership?srnd=premium-europe

The gold:silver ratio has been suggesting that silver will outperform gold for a while. The press will always latch on to a story to explain market moves. I'd be impressed if they mentioned the reason beforehand.
Precious metals should have a bright future (no pun intended). There will be ups and downs, of course, but Centamin is a strong long-term hold.
A chart for those who like a bit of visual.

https://elliottwave-forecast.com/news/elliott-wave-view-silver-broke-52-week-high/

nlondon1234
I confess that pharmaceutical scientist and economist does not make me an oil guru.
However, bulletin boards of yore have yielded first rate geologists (MarlonMonkey), oil industry managers (Desireoil3009?) and tax experts (OHTaxes) and many more experts. All honest players and worth reading (tax a bit boring, though, but essential).

'But Buenos Aires has a different prize in mind – 60 billion barrels of oil estimated to lay in British waters.'

Jones, Jones, I think you're bordering on the realms of fantasy there.

Let's hope Harbour evaluate their projects and pick Sealion pronto. This is not the time for dithering....that oil needs selling in 2024. It's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to use the high profits to pay for the infrastruture and pay off other debts. Linda can then ease back a little and contemplate her smart business acumen is she needs to.
We're looking at question and answer number two in the link below.
Arfur's advice? All fingers should protrude as far and as soon as possible!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/questions-from-around-the-world/

LTT
Yes it would.
I left yesterday morning with the RKH price at 7p and fully expected to find myself a member of the 'Red Brigade' when I looked this morning. But, how pleasant it is to find that I'm not, although I shouldn't speak too soon.

Italy holds about 20% of its gold reserves in the BofE. So it would only be a short trip for Sam to roll up to its doors and help himself should games start to be played. Let's hope the Robinhooders don't target gold beforehand!

Oil is in a bull market which should last for most of this decade. If Tullow can get the debt repayments extended towards the middle of the decade/ish, they should be able to repay with ease. Plus they may have a new oil discovery on top of that. Perhaps that was Goldman Sachs' thinking. Oil to get to $200 at the bubble - long way to go though.