The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
It might signify a temporary top in the oil price. Perhaps there may be a lockdown in the USA when Biden becomes president reducing demand for oil and giving a price pullback. But then again, it might not.
I'm holding through thick and thin. Possible OM award and UKEF and SL sanction - so very exciting times, I must stay in - anything could happen. No other share around with so much to win or lose. Just don't bet the house on it.
No, SeretBlueprint. Prince Charles's sign is when his ears flap uncontrollably.
MikeJE,
Yes, I take your point. I was referring to China's have no scruples about using fossil fuel to build its economy. Maybe 'Build Back Better' would have been more appropriate, although that is part of the Great Reset in any case.
What a lot we've got to look forward to.
Arfur
Yes, Stevo12, we need to see if the new Premier Oil follow the same strategy as the old company. I hope they do since they have a fantastic opportunity, which so many other companies don't have.
Harbour could well walk away from the FIs.
However, turning your back on a little fiefdom holding good quality oil and an abundance of gas, which can be extracted and sold during a commodity bull market, is looking a gift horse in the moosh (if that's the right word). The set up cost could easily be paid for after a period of sky high oil prices. It's going to happen - private money is already escaping government bonds and going into stocks. Where will all the money head when tech stocks crash?
The west looks set for the Great Reset. If think it would be folly for the British government to follow in its entirety - it should look to China and see what they think about fossil fuels. Honesty, why do politicians have to make the world such a struggle?
Yes, Rockhopper doing better for the moment.
Despite all the articles saying we have a supply crunch coming, and despite a good run in the oil price since the -$40 WTI futures contracts in March last year, people are generally still very bearish on oil. It just shows how a good thumping to the oil price lasts a long time in people's memories. There's plenty of energy from that catapult still to come! We have the 'top callers' out in force at the moment. Good luck them.
Of course we will get pullbacks. That's healthy, for If we didn't, it would mean we are already in a bubble - that should not be the case for a few years yet. Hopefully, Harbour, Rockhopper and Navitas will be selling high quality Sea Lion oil at premium prices - it will help them pay off their debts. Perhaps the FI government could reduce the taxation level further for that period of time and raise it a little afterwards to level off the overall tax take.
Rockhopper's course is set fair - let's hope it can complete it's journey.
Thanks Mogger.
I'm feeling happier all of a sudden.
MakeSomeMoney,
Very wise words.
Yes, I fully expect a wild ride with this share. It's one of the reasons I try to get in at the bottom (or near to the bottom) of the cycle. This could well be back to under 4p on any oil price pullback, and there will be people telling us the world is ending. But I have my position and will stick with it. I wanted to be in here at some stage. I did the same with gold many years ago - that was a scary time to start with, but I can now sit back and watch others fret about whether the bull market is over or only just starting.
I hope our positons in Rockhopper will serve us well in the years to come.
Bootledodger,
I don't think Harbour would buy or merge with Rockhopper. The thing is, If Falkland's oil is going to be extracted, it would make Rockhopper very expensive indeed. Rockhopper has a lot of potential value in Sealion and Isobel Deep alone. When you add in any other possible finds (don't forget they own most of the southern basin - lots of gas/condensate) I don't think Harbour would use precious funds for a takeover. The only way I can see Rockhopper being taken over by anyone else is if Harbour don't proceed in the Falklands. Rockhopper would then be adrift and a sitting target.
I can, however, see Harbour snapping up Borders. Borders has just appointed an additional agent which suggests they may be readying themselves for a sale. Again, I don't think Borders will be cheap (not 1p), but certainly much less expensive than Rockhoppper. One for Harbour to tuck away, perhaps.
Daikihaku1,
Barking mad, eh? I think not.
I noticed the share price dropped to around 6p just before Christmas and then gradually recovered. When it finished at 6.5p yesterday, which was higher than it had been for a while, I felt something was going on, particularly since the oil price looked like it might have a bigger pullback. Certainly other oilers have done well this afternoon, given the news of Saudi's cuts, but I just got the feeling that this could be something tasty.
I read about the trials of Cairn at the hands of the Indian government, just after Cairn was given the award. A good lesson for Harbour, if it needed one, about dealing with reliable governments! Honestly, why would anyone want to go through that sort of headache and damage their company in the way that Cairn has been?
Anyway, early this afternoon, we became a Rockhopper shareholder for the long haul. It is obvious to me, that the Falkland Islands fit Harbour's future plans like a glove.
Go ahead Harbour, make my day.
Sorry, I wrote LLT when I should have written LTT. Anyway LTT and all, here's a little bit of festive cheer. (Read the article underneath as well about Biden.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-22/court-rejects-climate-challenge-to-oil-field-near-london-airport?srnd=premium-europe
Regards
However, the best poster of all was LK Hyman on the BP board. So well educated and wise, and always pleasant. Nothing ruffled him. A retired Shell executive, I think, he used to cruise around on the high seas, and the banter on the board was second to none. Then, one day a character appeared with strong views and it all became rather competitive. It spoiled the whole ethos, and LK obviously decided he’d had enough and sailed into the sunset, never to be seen again. I’m not ashamed to admit that I felt a sense of bereavement upon his departure, for a time.
Anyway, enough for this year. Thank you all for your wise views and have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Paul.
Harbour is definitely pulling the corporate ‘Burning Platform’ stunt (no pun or malice intended). Those who bend most get to keep their job. In effect, Harbour has monopoly power in the FIs. With demand for oil service providers and the like apparently on the wane, an extra penny here and there adds to the coffers. Harbour is sitting pretty in the FI – no one else with any influence will come in to queer its pitch – not for some time anyway. As Ovets reported, although Harbour doesn’t want to appear to be turning the screw, it will anyway.
LLT.
Majors could start to divest oil assets (but not Exxon). However, the Chevrons of this world don’t become the Chevrons of this world by selling cheaply. It’s going to take oil a long time to rise to pip squeak level and many a smaller oiler will bite the dust beforehand (maybe even Pemex). There won’t be many takers when the majors consider it time to sell. Therefore, although they may not invest in oil discovery and production, I should have thought they would keep most of their existing producing assets. Let’s face it; those assets will be extremely profitable in the future.
I think the important phrase on this climate change business is ‘zero net carbon emissions’. It’s a typical political weasel phrase. I was reading a BBC article on the weekend (Arfur’s reputation immediately nosedives) about how Scotland produced 90% of its electricity this year by renewable sources. However, it then mentioned Scotland’s oil, gas and other hydrocarbon energy usage and explained how hard it will be to replace these by renewable sources with existing technology. So to meet Sturgeon’s ‘net zero carbon emissions’ by 2050, more forests will be planted and environmentally friendly materials would be used etc. Looking at that logically, captain, you could even ditch all renewable sources and burn only hydrocarbons as long as you could clean up the carbon emissions in some way. No doubt, the majors will be planting trees to justify their continuing oil production and the Germans will be adding to the Black Forest Gateau aplenty to compensate for Nordstream 2. I doubt if the archbishop of Canterbury will be giving up his BP pension in disgust. All is never what it seems.
Yes, there were some fantastic posters on III. Obviously some had held very prominent positions within the oil industry. One trader, who used to turn up at spud time with his harem, would spend ages giving buy and sell recommendations. If you had followed his advice, you’d have ended the day with something rather unpleasant in your pants (sorry for that). Cont.
Thanks Pubsshut. A good, honest answer - mucho cudoso for you.
I never day trade. I like to identify the bottom of cycles, have a look at potential runners and riders and get some in. Then go 'old turkey' as the americans say and sell out on the bubble. Picking up some divis on the way is a bonus.
Definitely mining and commodities in general - banking is on the up but I will avoid. We've got a very funny cycle coming here with potentially a digital currency and I'm not keen to gamble that the banks will do well (or even exist in the future!).
I don't get involved with wild-cat drills. That's why I never bought Rockhopper when it was drilling. Some of the characters on bulletin boards were unbelievable - some jerk on the II board was going on about a parrot in a pub (I think he must have been Argentinian).
I see Rockhopper as having huge potential and the other FI oilers (Borders and Argos) might even be in with a shout - although I will avoid them. Seeing that Harbour is interested in gas, the other oilers could be in play. If Harbour does go ahead with Sea Lion, it should snap up the other two immediately. I get the impression the south of the island has more gas than water. Rockhopper own most of it too, owing to the FOGL take out.
Having looked at the requirements that Harbour has stipulated for its investment, the political situation may be of concern as well as little infrastructure being in place. I know the FIG have been setting up for an oil industry and who cares about Argentinians anyway (actually they are really nice people and surprisingly pro British...its just the Malvinas that upsets them).
We need Linda Cook to make a New Year's resolution to assemble her FI team in her office and shout 'DO IT' at them.
Have a great holiday.
Pubsshut,
Advise away. Do you think Rockhopper is a future winner? I know you have a minor position here. Don't worry, if I buy in and lose the lot, I won't blame you for it - there, it's in black and white and on public show. Thanks.
Mike,
I should add that the notion of western governments giving up their powers and nuclear weapons to the UN and coercing China and Russia to do the same so that there will be one world government, might not be in the name of communism. It could be a ruse by the west to stop China being the world’s number 1 superpower. If Martin’s predictions about western collapse are true, most people will lose everything in any case. Western leaders won’t want the east to have all the power and wealth while they struggle with failed states.
I can’t see China or Russia signing up for that and their leaders won’t be bought off. I just hope that if digital currencies become the norm, physical money will still be an option. In a deflationary bust, cash is king. Besides, a digital currency is an easy target for anyone wanting to cripple an economy instantly – hacking internets and the electricity supply.
I often wonder if Martin uses the communist bogeyman on Americans to scare them to his point of view. After all, most Americans don’t realize that they are almost there anyway – if the Federal Reserve stopped printing money, all the private firms would collapse as well as public. The same goes for here and Europe.
Long live Rockhopper, say I.
Mike,
Yes, I see what you're getting at and have read his mentioning this. I don't subscribe to Socrates, but have been reading Martin's blog for about 10 years now. I do know that he believes Schwab and Gates will not eventually succeed but it doesn't mean they won't cause untold harm trying.
Martin isn't always right, although he clearly has contacts in high places. I think of George Orwell's comment about the rich not being as clever as all that. Perhaps I'm clutching at straws.
Hi Mike.
Oh my, that is an enormous question. I don't have time to do it justice at the moment but I will get tomorrow afternoon off and will give my thoughts then. I hope people won't mind this on the Rockhopper Board, but in some way, it will be relevant to investing here.
What did strike me immediately about the Harbour presentation was the first bullet point on its ‘mission statement’ on page 8: A sustainable business with a commitment to Net Zero by 2035 (I’m assuming they mean ‘net zero emissions’, not worth). A few days ago, Mogger supplied a link from the FIG about Sea Lion meeting that criterion. No coincidence methinks, and shows that Premier Oil is tenaciously fighting Sea Lion’s corner.
I’m not sure if Harbour is looking to drop any part of its portfolio in favour of another (I’m missing something, aren’t I?), but for all the reasons given by the excellent posts on here, I believe that if Harbour were to ditch Sea Lion and pursue Zama, it would be signing its own death warrant. If the predictions about the future economic and political chaos happen, then any company will be thankful that it committed to work with a small, efficient and honourable government that is not under stress. There won’t be many of those around come 2030.
Friend Armstrong has indicated a panic cycle for the DJI next week. We’ll see what happens (he’s not always right; some people are still waiting for $920 gold). I noticed in the last few days that oil stocks sold off into the oil price strength. Therefore, there may be something in it. I’m afraid there will be many more oilers that go the way of Chesapeake.
When any correction has finished its course, I will be a buyer here.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/rule-of-law/a-world-in-a-state-of-total-confusion/
A fighting chance....it's Friday!