Member Info for Arfur_Uggins

One fact I do know is that there are an awful lot of players short on this share, and they will have to work hard during the 'quiet' periods to scramble out of their positions.
Goldman Sachs v's Crippen
Place your bets.
Scramble or be scrambled.

I feel sick.

Yes, SteveJones99. The thing that amazes me most is how the analysts manage to worm their way out of a situation when they recommend something that doesn't come off. I have read Martin Armstrong for years (only the blog - I have never paid any money to any of them). I must say that his economic confidence model is excellent - he predicted the crash last year on the 18th/19th January and it came early February - it saved me being in the market to be honest. But, on gold, he said it would go to about $920 back in 2015 and I bet there are some people still waiting for that! When it didn't, he still claimed it would even though we got that bounce in gold to $1380 (was it?). Well, it didn't go to $920 even then. Do you know what the excuse was? It was a 'cycle inversion'. I take that to mean he was 100% incorrect.
So, I find it a very useful tool to look at the sentiment and when gold is dead and buried, that's the time to add some.
With gold miners, it's much more complex - with the ins and outs of mining and politics.... the list goes on.
I like Centamin. My only worry is if gold does fall more and Barrick comes in with an offer like the one I had when RandGold was merged - I think it was 16% on the price of the share at the time and a little bit on the dividend. I can say if that stunt is pulled on Centamin, I will say no.

Good points, Tornadotony, which is why Centamin is a good long-term hold.
The case for gold gets more bearish every day.
Waiting.

Mikefreedom
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/news/elliott-wave-view-downside-gold/

At least we can't be accused of being one and the same!
Best wishes
A

Great timing, Cowichan, and thanks for the link.

This has to be my favourite source upon which to take a contrarian position. When Bloomberg reported that gold had become a 'pet rock' in late 2015, it ignited the gold bull run again. Gold was at $1046. It seems that some people just never learn - it's what makes a market, I suppose.
The negative sentiment is gaining for gold. I'm looking for a spike down in price and a headline to indicate that gold is dead. It could be a longish wait - I don't know.
Incidentally, on the takeover question, Mark Bristow announced the merger between African Barrick Gold and Randgold Resources at a low in the gold price in 2019, I think. It rose steadily thereafter. I know because I was a Randgold shareholder.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/jeffrey-gundlach-says-bitcoin-may-be-a-better-bet-than-gold?srnd=premium-europe

"Yes, Your Honour, we were alone in the living room, and as he came towards me I realized he had a 'short on'. He said I could do whatever I liked but I wasn't allowed to squeeze."

....I'll get me coat.

The relevance of the oil price today is that it appears to be moving in the direction that many long-term holders were predicting last year, when some others thought the game was over.
It at least gives me some confidence that their current predictions for the oil price may actually be correct and that my investment in Rockhopper may not be quite as foolish as it first seemed.
Here's hoping.

This link shows Newmont Mining, to give a bit of support to what I have said about gold. It looks very nice, if it's correct!
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/the-newmont-corporation-longer-term-bullish-cycles-nem/

Steve
My take is that we are nearing a longer term bottom in the gold price soon. We'll probably see a bloodbath phase in gold stocks for 3 or 4 days before they turn - I like to look at Yamana (AUY) and NewGold (NGD) on the NYSE. You'll know when a bottom is in because the short covering is wild!
We are due a correction in stock markets soon - I am looking at Platinum to reach $1375 and then turn down - maybe get to $1000 before it's off again. Perhaps markets will follow this.
If the takeover rumours of Centamin are true, then any prospective buyer will know that gold may bottom soon. It would be the right time to pounce since gold should rise to $2200 - $2400. Any correction to gold after that (during a stock market crash?) may not get lower than it is now. Hence, it might not be a good idea to sell Centamin because it's in the takeover spot.
This is only my view and should not be taken as gospel. I could be totally wrong (and usually I am).

I think some people are awaiting the arrival of some fashionable, comfortable footwear, so it seems.

I love financial journalists. They are always behind the curve.
https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/energy/oil/602783/oil-price-heading-to-usd100

A good read, goldgnome, while I am under house arrest. Thanks.
I suppose the answer lies in why Wall Street has to be bailed out so often.
If countries adopt a cryptocurrency and elimate physical cash, the electricty supply would be a good target for collapsing the economy.
Holding physical gold means you are taking your money totally away from the risk associated with the financial system. Unless you mislay it or it is stolen, you will always have an asset to sell at some time. In times of financial crises, people have always liquidated assets, including gold to some extent. If governments eliminate physical cash, we will be 'bailed in' come the next crisis. It is already written that there will be no more bank bail outs (hmmm!).
I suspect it won't be too long before gold becomes popular again when the tech bubble bursts. In the meantime, it will drift as people pile into Tesla.
It's funny to think that Tesla is the hot stock at the moment, but it probably won't exist come 2024. Gold will. You'll know when the bubble is near to bursting when Musk sells a huge wad of shares, just as Zuckerberg did with Facebook before February last year. If you want to be rich, do as the rich do.

Both shorts and longs on gold are being totally fleeced here - shorts last Friday and longs today.

I would add, for a mining company, WHEN to invest as being of upmost importance. Peter Hambro might be able to help out on this question, if he has learnt his lesson!

Generally speaking, it is a bl@@dy silly idea to short stocks that are selling a good that is in a bull market.
Is it any wonder that Wall Street has to be bailed out so often?

MuchaboutMoney
I agree with all you've written. But Harbour will not be making a decision to go ahead with FI development on the basis of whether or not oil companies will be subject to a short squeeze next month. That is just some analyst speculating who ought to look at the bigger picture. Harbour will be looking at a forecast of the oil price when Sealion starts pumping.
It's a relishing prospect to know that a few years down the line, commodities with be experiencing a bubble the same as tech is now. Eventually, commodities will also suffer a massive crash - but the FIs will be set up and paid for by then and Harbour can go about their business as the cycle takes them.
Tech is bubbling now and the NasDaq will have some scarey moments and recover a few times until it doesn't. That will have a profound effect on RKH's share price. When that time comes is anyone's guess but I'll put my a+se on the line and say March 2022. Hopefully by then, Rockhopper will have an OM pay cheque and be preparing to get Sealion producing.
We are asking Linda Cook to make a huge bet against the prevailing opinion, and I think she's smart enough and has got what it takes to do that and win.

It's interesting that Kolanovic does not mention what will happen when the tech bubble bursts and what effect that will have on the equity and bond markets in general, albeit a temporary one.
As many have said, timing is crucial.