Member Info for alex1978uk

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning

Hopefully but peak China is behind us.

I see Russia are to launch a 'Special Demographic Operation', which probably means invading someone else's country and forcing their people into some kind of backward Russian occupation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-birth-rate-slides-lowest-quarter-century-2024-2024-09-10/

The status of Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine was to be decided in later talks between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The NYT said that the most important sticking point was connected to security guarantees under which powers like the U.K., the U.S., China, and France would come to Ukraine's defense if it were attacked.

Russian representatives reportedly demanded veto power on these guarantees, meaning they could block international intervention if Moscow itself decided to invade again.

With this demand, the Ukrainian team "had no interest in continuing the talks," one Ukrainian official told the NYT.

https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-publishes-purported-draft-of-ukraine-russia-peace-treaty-from-2022/

The so called 2022 peace deal didn't include Ukraine keeping the Donbas. It stated that Ukraine could join the EU but not NATO. That it would have to limit the size of its armed forces and grant special status to the Donbas, to be negotiated between Putin and Zelensky at a later date. That's a good idea, disband and shrink Ukraine's armed forces then trust Putin to do the right thing with the Donbas at a later date. In 2022 the Ukrainians told Putin's cronies to F off back to Moscow and rightly so.

The only person that's dragging this out is Putin. You'd have thought this would have been obvious after week one when most his best troops got slaughtered.

Https://gmk.center/en/news/ferrexpo-is-among-the-ten-largest-ukrainian-investors-in-wartime/amp/

Https://m.miningweekly.com/article/goldman-sachs-cuts-q4-iron-ore-price-forecast-by-15t-on-supply-glut-2024-09-16

Https://open4business.com.ua/en/ukraine-doubled-exports-of-iron-ore-in-january-august/

Q3 results out 3 weeks today (October 7th). I'd be happy with anything around 1,672,506 tonnes, same as Q2. That puts them at around 6,690,000 tonnes pa. Just over half pre invasion levels. This is enough to keep them going and a good effort under the circumstances. Maritime traffic has dropped off the last few months but a couple of cape size vessels along side now. I can't see any increase from Q2 levels. Q4 and Q1 2025 will be the real test in terms of electrical supply. Then who knows what next year has in store.

Lets hope so;

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/end-of-the-golden-age-of-iron-ore-china-s-property-market-falters-and-demand-drops/ar-AA1qtAw5?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=c119688dae64431ababa2539988ef53e&ei=65

John Bolton for US president:

https://youtu.be/-KEHmdEz2Pk?si=ynMOoormBrMQ6iUJ

Iron ore transported by rail down 11.9% from July - August. Not too bad under the circumstances. I’ll be happy to get through Q4 & Q1 2025 at similar levels. It going to be challenging. Hopefully FXPO have been stock piling again incase of any shut downs.

https://gmk.center/en/news/ukrainian-railways-transported-2-32-million-tons-of-iron-ore-for-export-in-august/amp/

I thought the scum had given up in the Black Sea

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-says-russia-hit-grain-vessel-near-nato-member-romania/ar-AA1qsZNF?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=3425c26097004a6f892ca6c0fc4ec03e&ei=53

All time lows may be possible. Below 20p was last seen in 2015, which pretty much followed the price of Iron Ore.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/iron-ore

Slow down in China is as relevant as anything at the moment. Probably why they’re happy robbing Russia for cheap energy.

Ukraine has “a lot of critical minerals, trillions potentially,” Graham added. “Get them back on their feet. And if they become a robust economy, then pass back. If they don’t, we understand. But his [Trump’s] point is you need to have some leverage, and loans give you leverage, and he thinks the American taxpayer would be more supportive of approaches like this.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna150388

Bit of an old article:

Ukraine’s Western-backed leader Volodymyr Zelensky opened the New York Stock Exchange telling Wall Street his country is “open” for foreign corporations to exploit it with $400 billion in state selloffs.

https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/09/09/zelensky-selling-ukraine-wall-street/

I think Ukraine will source a lot of the money for reconstruction, in part, by selling off their assets by attracting foreign investment. The same as the other former ex Soviet states did. The 300bn of Russian money held in Western banks should really be used. But that may not happen. Leaving Russia skint after the war probably isn't going to do much good in the long run. Isn't that what we did to Germany after the first world war? Ukraine isn't like Afghanistan it does have a lot to offer in terms of natural resources, agriculture, skilled work force etc. And could easily be a successful independent country. But its going to be in debt for a long time. So I'm inclined to agree, the days of big dividends are never likely to return. If they can afford to pay a 15-20% dividend they can afford to pay more taxes.

Ukraine has to choices going forward. Sell some of your assets to the West and become indebted to the West for generations to come. Or let Russia take your assets for nothing and get nothing back in return.

Https://gmk.center/en/news/ukraine-exported-goods-worth-over-3-16-billion-in-august/amp/

How Putin thought this pivot to the East and China was good for him I don’t know. He became dependent on them and is by far the junior partner.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-china-yuan-sanctions-bank-payments-trade-transfers-2024-9

The next hearing in the case is scheduled for September 9, 2024 at 10:00 a.m.

https://unn.ua/en/amp/haccu-begins-consideration-of-ex-supreme-court-chief-justice-knyazevs-case-on-the-merits