RE: Fxpo30 Sep 2024 12:59
Sounds about right Troajan. The question is how long can China keep subsiding the Steel Sector? They are still, I think, consuming around 75% of global sea born Iron ore imports.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-iron-ore-imports-likely-peak-demand-composition-shift-russell-2024-05-16/
The same as what happened to the Western world, government can't keep subsiding non profitable industries. The more I read about China the more I think they are screwed. Massively ageing population, 70% of household wealth is tied up in property, some of which is 90% over valued, ghost cities with no one living in them, they have more high speed railways that the rest of the world put together, most of which is not profitable, they have just increased the retirement age, by 2050 they're going to have 500million people over the age of 60 and a population shrinking by around 15million a year. But most importantly the average wage in China is now higher than it is in a lot of other South Asian courtiers, let alone India and Africa.
As the economists say 'China is going to get old before its rich enough to get old'. Probably why they've buying as much cheap oil as they can from the likes of Russia and Iran.