Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
How much are these analysts paid? Either I am completely bonkers and deluded or at best there is some really lazy research being undertaken. A 14p target does not make sense, although despite POO being up again yesterday evening and this morning, Jefferies has undoubtedly helped a downward move towards that 14p their target. Hopefully, other analysts will counter with reiterations of higher targets.
All I can say is roll on the next update which should be in about 5weeks or so time, hopefully some real figures will underscore the value in ENQ and continued de-risking progress.
Sek - It is 2025-28 that I am really interested in with respect to sp, as long as Brent holds up and AB does not pile us up with more debt and move the 0.5 ratio to the right. By '27-28, with Bressay on line, production and revenues could be much higher and there is an outside chance that when EPL ends, it will not be replaced by another punitive tax.
A bid is the only thing that will crystallise some shareholder value immediately, but if that bid comes too soon, the ENQ long termers will not see all the potential sp upside.
Totally agree with you that ENQ is woefully undervalued
Sek - good summary, I have the 0.5 ratio being hit in August '24 and without any other positive news 27.5p minimum by year end. Another partner for Bressay and or an announcement and or higher oil price could precipitate an interesting jump in the sp.
Thanks Krak, you are right, patience is the key here but it has been a painful 14 months here but I hope we have turned the corner - ENQ still my biggest holding by far. I feel like the guy that has been sent to the hardware store for a "long weight/wait"!
Doubled my holding in PMG last week and up 42% over Christmas with hopefully a way to go, I don't understand why we are not getting that sort of rise here, 42% on the current price would only take us to 22p! Also do not understand Brent's fall below $79 given all the rising tensions. Even when you throw into the mix epl, politics, global tensions, US record production etc etc. The ENQ sp still does not make sense - undervalued.
Brent has dropped below $81 this evening, but Dotlink, I think you may be right about seeing $84 this week, although the US is pumping for all its worth and some economies are faltering, everywhere you look tensions are increasing. It is unbelievable how things have perceivably/apparently changed in the last four day break. Israel stating the war in Gaza will go on for months, US striking Iranian backed targets in Iraq, threats to shipping and shipping lanes and the Red Sea and beyond becoming a potential flash point, Iran sabre rattling, the Russians loosing a landing ship and perhaps now totalling 20% of their Black See fleet against a country with no Navy, the Chinese and Russians getting closer and former upping the threat to Taiwan, Guyana and Venezuela land dispute Somalian conflict continues and that is without touching on many internal national issues around the World - all really very depressing.
The sad thing is that other than ENQ production levels, the only other thing that helps ENQ reduce debt and counter the effects of EPL is a higher oil price, if it were not for the US record production levels, we would be looking a POO of $100+. $100 is unlikely at this stage unless tensions heighten or conflict spreads but the mid $80's is very much on the cards this week and I am more convinced that a low $80's base line will hold through Q1 2024, but I have been wrong before as things are no longer as predictable as they used to be.
If Brent holds above $81 and the Bressay news that there is an extra £34.5m in the bank (+£11m when producing) and and unloved asset is potentially worth upwards of £200m and there are other potential partners interested (or at least there were according to IR), then tomorrow should open with some blue sp action. Plus and unfortunately, one could argue tensions around the World have not eased but tightened up since the market closed on Friday. Let's hope the analysts are also using the break to write up their revised targets for ENQ's sp. Personally, hoping we'll hit 17.5 before the week is out and 22p early in the New Year with 27.5-32p by next December. This will be supported perhaps by another Bressay buy in and development, more directors buys, one or two low capital cost production projects in the portfolio, diesel swapped out for gas on rigs, a clear shareholder value policy announced and reaching the 0.5 ratio by end August 2024.
Very excited about ENQ's prospects and should have put the above wish list on Santa's list..........although just higher Brent and production in 2024 will do!
Anyone care to counter an August 2024 for the 0.5 ratio to be hit?
A quick calculation which assumes that Brent pricing will average above $80 and production holds (the Bressay money is in the bank) suggests the illusive 0.5 ratio could be hit as early as August allowing the potential of buy backs later in 2024. If this is a correct assumption, it all adds to the potential upgrading of broker targets.
Totally agree broker updates need to be revised. If you take the latest targets from the four brokers that have published on LSE - the average is 27.5p and that was before the latest news. The lowest was 20p and highest 38p and all the ratings this year were before the operational update which on balance was positive and confirmed debt reduction is progressing despite EPL. Brent dropped slightly at the end of the week but still above $79 and H2 average will be higher than H1. With EPL paid for this year and most capital and leasing costs along with reduced interest payments as debt reduces, along with the Bressey payment we should see a slightly accelerated debt reduction in the two months since the update. What will also be interesting see in the full accounts is a potential upgrade in asset values.
We have an unprecedented 12 RNS since the last update (equivalent 3 last year) which has provided positive news and demonstrates the BoD are working hard and backing the future success of ENQ. The next big insight into ENQ's progress should be in mid February - Trading Statement (last year 17th Feb 2023), that is less than 7 weeks away!
Dumbly - great dig at the UK government and EPL in the last sentence!
Looking forward to the next trading session and I hope that the analysts will upgrade their targets following today's news.
Stumpy, I think it does justify 15% for the following reasons:
Cash increased/net debt reduced (est -10%) which de-risks ENQ
Demonstrates value of Bressey asset and undervaluation of ENQ MCap/sp
Extra cash to progress projects without undermining balance sheet
Partner to share costs and risk - development more likely to proceed ensuring future production rates
Tie in to other assets confirms viability of all linked projects
Need I go on?
There appears to be a bit of profit taking but hopefully the sp will climb again in the last hour of trading today.........
Kicking myself for not adding earlier this morning, but have joined the frenzy with a few more ENQ shares, never mind 16p, I think that Barclays 22p target is now in view.............
13th on % gainers today and rising - great Christmas present!
AB has bought around this time of year and with this deal in the offing, he would not have been able to buy - let's see what happens today - should be BLUE anyway!
This news should put a couple of pence on the sp, accelerate debt reduction/finance costs and accelerate some of the field development projects in hand.
On balance this has to be good news.
I am pretty sure that most of us thought that HBR was the obvious buyer for ENQ because of the tax and refinancing (CO2 "Green" elements) advantages were so clear and the integration of the two companies would have been relatively simple. However, HBR had declared there post EPL strategy to seek multinational assets and we had no idea that Cook was thinking quite so big. The advantages of acquiring ENQ remain but I am guessing that HBR will have "indigestion" for the next 12 months sorting this out and beyond with company integration issues.
On the positive side, if HBR has indigestion, then they are effectively removed from the M&A NS arena which may leave ENQ with some room to make other deals. Clearly, AB and his team are very active at the moment judging by all the RNS this month, this includes director buys and increased stakes in ENQ - generally low key positive news from ENQ.
I think that AB may be acting in a cautious manner, one might term organic growth rather than explosive growth (HBR fashion). I think that debt reduction remains core to the ENQ strategy and recovering the ENQ sp, I do't think he has the appetite for taking on massive amounts of debt again. With a 15% stake in the company and a approaching a decade and half at the helm of ENQ, his priorities are to strengthen the balance sheet through debt reduction which will eventually feed through to the undervalued sp/MCap at which point with Sullen Voe and any remaining tax losses ENQ will ripe for or subject of some M&A activity. In the meantime share buybacks, even asset sales will accelerate the sp growth and a pile of cash and FCF will sweeten what ever comes next.
Should have backed HBR and ENQ, but from ENQ current low valuation and HBR's complicated integration ahead, I still think ENQ will come good, it is just unfortunate that EPL has moved the goal posts to the right, but POO above $80, debt/finance cost reduction and buybacks will see a 60p party but it may take 24 months. DYOR
Added recently, partly due to stronger gas prices and partly to average down. I was also hoping that there might be news coming out with AGM or perhaps some insight from questions answered.
I would welcome any feedback.
$*%T£ - I have been watching HBR but piling into ENQ................ Clearly, deals are being considered and made in the O&G sector, but so far nothing from ENQ - come on AB, we need some positive news that will not screw the balance sheet. I would be happy with a takeover but for a lot ,ore than the current sp/MCap.
We need to IR to update their major shareholders list which has Cobas down as 3.9%, so a move to 5.0442% is quite a jump.
The top nine shareholders now have est. 51.6% of the company tied up, with some long termers like AB, this should help tighten the availability of shares to trade and help push the price up.
There have also been nine RNS this month so far which have been largely positive which is also helped the recent sp recovery. I reckon these have all helped sentiment towards ENQ and the price of Brent and this latest RNS should help ENQ end the year blue, tomorrow should interesting.
Must have been the one's I bought, personally now in for the 12 month ride wherever ENQ takes us, but hopefully double this be Christmas 2024.