Member Info for AIMOilking

The SNP are raising the spectre of independence again and even suggesting that if all pro independence parties band together post election, thy can bypass Westminster and go straight to another referendum.

The pressure to make changes in favour of the NS O&G industry is growing, a 1000 job losses a month probably trumps the number of decent renewable jobs created with the benefit of subsidies.

November is now the key turning point with the EPL strategy and the budget, any further delay in making substantive changes to Government Policy will cause accelerated damage and deliver both a drubbing for Liebore in the elections and independence for Scotland.

So all within the next the next seven weeks, EPL Strategy review, the Budget and ENQ's update - it is either going to be a good Christmas or I am off to the Job Centre to sign on which will give me access to £50,000 of home improvement grants, probably some other benefits whilst I turn my house into an HMO to scoop up some of the money the Government is paying out for Hotels. I can't believe how stupid I was to invest in the NS - duh!

"Intensified attacks. An analysis by Carbon Brief found a dramatic rise in newspaper editorials attacking Miliband. After the 2024 general election, the frequency of these attacks more than doubled compared to the first half of the year. By May 2025, the rate had nearly tripled again."

My guess it has quadrupled by now!

Piper - good find. The more I see of Ratcliff, the more I like him as he speaks my language, I would vote for him as PM.

Interesting to hear his views on Grangemouth and that he wanted to pick up NS licences but pulled back because of UK Government NS policy.

He speaks a lot sense regarding NS O&G and opening up, suggesting that Corporation Tax should be the only tax. In the after chat, one reporter asked the other if anything would change anytime soon, the response was no, otherwise Milibrain would have to go - pressure keeps building!

AB must be smarting given his holding in ENQ, but only slightly more than me, MCap now 28.6% of that in early 2022, of course not helped by Brent being down 2.86% today. Those FCF's are fast evaporating and the urgency for Government action becomes desperately more urgent. At least, production in H2 should be a lot better than H1 and some costs will also be lower, in the meantime, debt is manageable and I assume that there are no covenants requiring any immediate financial actions. So we are good to ride out the foreseeable future which will hopefully be brighter after the Government's review in November and perhaps even more news in the budget. The smaller the HMRC receipts from EPL, hopefully the sooner we will see some action, especially after HMRC found £3bn in VAT which was unaccounted for.

This article in the Express is perhaps the most extreme I have seen so far attacking Milibrain:

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/2119410/ed-miliband-has-gone-rogue-had-one-job-wilfullly-sabotaged-it

The article starts with the usual goofy picture of Milibrain and amongst the already 385 comments on the article was this gem:

"When I first saw this article, I thought it was about gurning.............."

"Miliband under pressure over claims of meddling with ‘independent’ net zero report

Energy Secretary faces investigation demands over pressuring Neso to approve clean power policies"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/10/10/miliband-under-pressure-over-claims-of-meddling-with-report/

This link is to an article stating and evidenced through access to emails under FOI requests - Energy department clearly colluding and influencing NESO "independent report". This needs to be investigated, especially given the Government spending on NZ.

The Telegraphs article on Millibrain refusing to discuss energy policy with Sir Jim Radcliff has already approaching a thousand comments, I scrolled through a fair few and failed to find a single positive comment about Milibrain. The majority believed Milibrain was a mad zealot that should be fired and the rest called for Starmer to grow a pair.

Judging by Milibrain's reaction to the reporter that asked what he thought about a Union Leader calling for his resignation and his "Oh dear" comment, his facial expression gave it all away for a moment, he knows he is on the ropes, industry and politicians are calling him out, the public are turning and even the Greens are advising him to change policy on NS O&G, when the JUSTOPOIL sponsoring Dale Vince calls you out and calls for change, surely an alarm bell must register?

Roll on November's Government NS strategy review and ENQ's update, both of which cannot arrive soon enough given the current sp. We are now just at 30% of the MCap we had in 2022, when the impact of a 35% EPL dawned on NS investors, which has more than wiped out $1.2bn of debt repayment and all the upside progress AB and his team have achieved - MCap now £206m............unbelievable!

You may need to verify these facts for various sources:

Each wind turbine typically uses 80 gallons of oil a year or 16,000,000gallons a year globally.

It takes equivalent to 18,857 barrels of marine petroleum to build a complete turbine.

In the UK between 10,000 and 100,000 birds hit turbines, estimates range wildly.

2024, £1bn paid to switch off UK turbines, in the first 2 months of 2025 £252m

Financial payback varies, typically 10-15 years, turbine life supposed to be 20 years but this likely to be less.

Officially 11.7 turbine fires globally but 117 recorded in a university study (200,000 turbines installed globally).

Blades non recyclable - land filled.

Farmers can get paid up to 5-6% of energy generated or around £40,000 a year per turbine - so someone is making money!

Foundations are an issue as is decommissioning.

On the positive side energy payback can be very quick and well within a year but I am guessing that the business cases without subsidies are looking pretty thin and the looming increase in maintenance costs and turbine replacements as the turbine "fleet" ages must be troubling or would be for anyone looking forward. I don't see our UK energy prices coming down any time soon, although I might ask Milibrain to personally sub me £300 a year.........

Nuclear, Hydro, tidal and geothermal would be my preference over wind and solar panels.

According to Milibrain in a recent interview (the one where he looks startled when the report states that the Union Leader wants him fired and he exclaims "Oh dear") renewables will create 400,000 jobs, I find that hard to believe and if true, given the rate of subsidies for each one created, the UK will be well and truly bankrupt.

"Offshore wind developer Orsted is cutting around a quarter of its global workforce by the end of 2027 in a pull-back after years of recent expansion.

The Danish firm said it was axing about 2,000 roles out of its 8,000-strong workforce, with plans to make around 500 staff redundant by the end of the year, including 235 in its home market.

The firm employs more than 1,200 workers in the UK, according to its website, but did not provide a breakdown of job cuts per country."

Just looking at some recent articles and I imagine Hunty and Rachel must have thought all their Christmas's were coming at once with EPL but oh boy did they get it wrong..............!!

"The warning comes after The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revised down its forecast profits for the EPL. It now expects the levy to raise just £21.1 billion between 2023 and 2028, compared to an earlier estimate of £65.7 billion."

Given that £9bn has already been raised and receipts, now production and POO are in sharper than expected decline (you could throw in accelerated Government decommissioning costs as well), it is not looking good for the Exchequer.

I reckon as a ball park figure, for every $1 they get the POO wrong, the EPL forecasted receipts will be $200,000,000 out. Average 2024 around $80 and average 2025 just over $70, perhaps it will not cost Rachel that much to cancel EPL after all - I hope she did not base her sums on $80?

The case for cancellation to save the NS O&G industry gets undeniably stronger and stronger.

Funny old thing, whilst there is a NS tax revenue forecast for 2025-26, it includes EPL and there is no breakdown !? Given the recent lower POO, I am guessing that Rach and the OBR have got that one embarrassingly wrong as well, no wonder she has a hole in her budget and she will go down as Rachel from Accounts, who killed the NS O&G industry stone dead.

AA - I like your thinking, however, I can't see any action this front until the Government announces its North Sea Strategy and review of EPL, it is only then that NS O&G companies will be able to rerun their business cases and asset values. I think this also applies to Waldorf as their investors scrabble to keep the company going until NS assets are potentially revalued against EPL MkII.

Ouch - reported in September and wonder how many jobs that effects and the associated loss of revenue to HMRC?

"The damage he (Milibrain) is doing to UK industry is plain: just this week (late September) Jim Ratcliffe withdrew £3 billion of investment from the North Sea and said he would invest in the US instead. But so long as Miliband remains in post, we are doomed to an energy policy that is making Britain poorer. Even the renewable energy lobby can see that."

Pressure - under pressure................Pressure on Milibrain is building :

"Sir Jim Ratcliffe was stonewalled by Ed Miliband when he asked the Energy Secretary to discuss his policies on net zero and the North Sea, the industrialist has said.

The billionaire owner of chemicals giant Ineos said Mr Miliband refused to engage in a discussion about Labour’s North Sea drilling ban in a call with industry bosses.

Sir Jim said: “I was on a video call with him and I asked him whether he could explain his policy on energy and the North Sea, but he wasn’t prepared to engage. He said, ‘I’m sorry, but that’s my policy. I’m not prepared to talk about it’."

Milibrain must go! Starmer needs to man-up and deal with Milibrain, licences and EPL....now.....before it is too late.

I have officially lost it and all credibility - further correction, a 50% market share of decommissioning costs to the end of the decade based on 1000 wells at US5m would be a US$2,500,000,000 revenue stream to ENQ.

Despite my maths problems - added today............. now realising I have truly lost it on ENQ or could I be a genius - it all hangs on the future shape of EPL!

Still managed to leave the zeros off - should be US$2,500,000,000 and US$5,000,000,000!!!!!!

Apology, maths failed me this morning by a factor of ten! Now corrected and they are big numbers!!

It appears that decommissioning pressures are increasing with an apparent backlog of 500 wells to be capped and this could reach 1000 by the end of the decade. The issue is not just oil companies delaying and a lack of investment in the NS bringing forward decommissioning costs for companies and the Government, it is the availability of equipment which is heading for better prospects elsewhere outside of the UK's punitive tax regime plus the demise of the supply chain. This could all get very costly in terms of execution or indeed fines for those that fail to cap on time.

Now is this where AB has been very clever with his decommissioning side hustle? We are told that ENQ is class leader in decommissioning at low cost and on time, now having captured 33% of the decommissioning market. Let us say that it will cost $5m (likely to rise with demand) to cap an average well, 500 wells is $2,500,000m and 1000 wells $500,000,000m in revenue, if ENQ becomes the go to for decommissioning and gains a 50% market share, by the end of the decade that is a $250m revenue stream that also placed ENQ in a strong position when combined with tax losses to pick up some interesting end of life assets, although this strategy has yet to materialise in actual deals. ENQ's in house decommissioning capability is also a de-risking strength for the company going forward in terms of managing assets and avoiding fines.

It appears that decommissioning pressures are increasing with an apparent backlog of 500 wells to be capped and this could reach 1000 by the end of the decade. The issue is not just oil companies delaying and a lack of investment in the NS bringing forward decommissioning costs for companies and the Government, it is the availability of equipment which is heading for better prospects elsewhere outside of the UK's punitive tax regime plus the demise of the supply chain. This could all get very costly in terms of execution or indeed fines for those that fail to cap on time.

Now is this where AB has been very clever with his decommissioning side hustle? We are told that ENQ is class leader in decommissioning at low cost and on time, now having captured 33% of the decommissioning market. Let us say that it will cost $5m (likely to rise with demand) to cap an average well, 500 wells is $250m and 1000 wells $500m in revenue, if ENQ becomes the go to for decommissioning and gains a 50% market share, by the end of the decade that is a $250m revenue stream that also placed ENQ in a strong position when combined with tax losses to pick up some interesting end of life assets, although this strategy has yet to materialise in actual deals. ENQ's in house decommissioning capability is also a de-risking strength for the company going forward in terms of managing assets and avoiding fines.

Dumbly, I believe you are right and this was why Ned's were able to buy previously but not execs. I also believe that with the Serica deal off the table and now the Prax assets have gone to Serica, it might suggest that these were the deals AB was working on. Waldorf seems to be in limbo whilst the investors try and save their interests, so effectively Waldorf is probably off the table for the time being or at least to later this year. What I would (and perhaps would not - no deals) is the Execs buying a big bundle of shares as I too also think that directors buying bodes well for the long term and perhaps the belief that EPL will be lifted/substantially modified.

Wood Mackenzie finds the UK could increase North Sea production by 50% and still outperform the strictest international climate pathways by 25-50MtCO2e annually through 2050.

Their research claims that the UK continental shelf production emissions outperform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's net zero scope 1,2 & 3 emissions pathway.

The consultancy says by 2035, the UK will depend on US LNG for over 60% of its gas supply, tripling emissions intensity from 3.7-11.3gCO2e/MJ.

Every additional trillion cubic feet of domestic North Sea gas saves 15MtCO2e compared to US imports, reports Woood Mackenzie, potentially exceeding the UK government's own platform electrification targets.

The economic case proves equally compelling. Domestic gas costs almost half that of US LNG imports, saving US$2.2bln per additional trillion cubic feet whilst cutting emissions by up to 50mln tonnes annually.

Gail Anderson, Research Director at North Sea Upstream at Wood Mackenzie, notes, 'Smart licensing policies targeting known discoveries could extend critical infrastructure life, whilst delivering substantial emissions and cost benefits over importing alternatives.'

It appears that there is growing confidence and political signalling that Government NS O&G strategy is going to change. However, my worry is that it is easy for the Government to ease its position on licences as there is no financial downside to such a decision for the Government and from a PR perspective it can be managed, but will Reeves be willing to give up on a short term EPL tax revenue, even if it is diminishing? It will be left to the next Parliament to deal with the aftermath of no relief to EPL, demise of the O&G industry and decommissioning costs?

The Conservatives listened to the furore over EPL and introduced the totally meaningless Energy Security Investment Mechanism which was designed so that it was beyond all likely scenarios that it would ever be triggered. I just hope we are not going to see a repeat of this publicity stunt that simply misdirected the public and insulted the NS O&G industry.