Member Info for AIMOilking

Carbon Capture is a nice idea but I have problems with it:

Where is the viable business case - it costs but does not produce anything;

How will the money be raised to pay the subsidies - the bulk has to come from those already paying tax;

All it will do is make us £22bn less competitive by comparison to all those countries that fail to legislate to sequester carbon dioxide.

This only works if all countries pay an equal carbon levy and the UK is paid to sequester the other countries CO2.

Wasted a small portion of my life watching Milibrain on Kuenssberg, he is a dangerous waste of space, usual nonsense accept for one thing that caught my attention - Milibrain bigged up Starmer for being the greatest champion of NZ. Do you think Ed knows what is coming and is trying to set Starmer up for a bigger fall when he makes a U-turn?

Forgive me but I thought that the 200,000 renewable jobs were for the O&G plus supply chain jobs that will be lost?

Re-branding plumbers and electricians as renewable jobs - do they think we are stupid?

I am not sure about trained up ex-offenders crawling all over my house? Tradesmen should be of the highest integrity and trusted to enter your home, especially for the elderly.

My elderly neighbour just got pressurised and charged £6,000 less a £1500 government grant to partially insulate a 32m2 loft with tin foil, the job took a couple of hours and materials cost less than £100, the Police were involved and said "the installers were known to them and certainly not people you want to be involved with".

Now Reeves wants to tax us to subsidise energy bills so the Government can claim they got the prices down, what a load of ^&£$%%^*&^&%^$%'s!!!

Who is going to pay for all this subsidized training and jobs?

I am starting to think Miliband is working for a foreign power to undermine the UK or he wants to level everyone down to the same level in some mud hut utopian NZ World, his nonsense otherwise does not make any sense at all.

Renewables, yes of course, but not at the cost of the economy and everything we have worked for. There needs to a be a clear and costed transition plan has the right technology to ensure it is viable and I am afraid that is going to include a substantial amount of nuclear power as a base line. This will help reduce the £2,000,000,000 that Miliband has already spent this year on balancing the electricity grid, close Drax (another load of CO2 NZ nonsense and massive subsidies) and only fund wind farms that are financially viable and can easily be connected to the grid..

Evi, I saw this article and could not help chuckling as of course Miliband oversees NSTA who produced the report. However, the question remains - will the Government make a Policy shift that will allow investment to resume in the NS?

In addition, with each advance in extraction technology, a dare say you could add 1 or 2 billion more barrels to these estimated reserves, noted NTSA have shown a 31% increase since 2023!

Miliband has apparently double downed on his rhetoric on NS O&G as seen in this article:

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/110-companies-call-for-end-to-north-sea-oil-profits-levy-but-miliband-signals-otherwise-16-10-2025/

Is this just desperation ahead of a Government U-turn on licences and EPL or at least a substantive change in policies?

I have never known any Government talk down its own economic situation as this one, Miliband and Reeves need to go before they cause any more damage, the Tories were weak but Labour appear to have a talent pool full of amoeba.

I had a quick look at Craig's recent investor briefing and a few things stood out:

He spoke of increasing Asian production of 6000bpd in Q1 and 15000BD by the end of 2026 and repeated the 35000bd by the end of the decade;

I think it was Magnus mentioned as 12989bd in H1 and in July, 19000bd achieved;

Mentioned managing finances to ensure positive FCF for full year;

Provided figures to roughly work cost per barrel and reconfirmed on target for 40-45000bd;

Clear expectation of Government policy change this November and likely crystalisation of deals in the market generally as a result and policy changes would be necessary before commitments to Bentley and Bressay made sense;

Clearly stated that ENQ is looking for further expansion in Asia;

Clearly stated that main strategy remains M&A in UK and the team was busy looking at all options.

Whilst an intention to return capital to shareholders is a given, the 2025 results will determine what is in the BoD's gift.

Overall, I thought Craig seemed a little more bullish and his answers helped with some of the topics covered on this BB recently.

Just a shame POO is down again this evening, which does not help whilst we await Rachel's stilted delivery in November. Don't worry, Rachel says UK is a lovely country, just remember to skip through the meadows before the solar panels are installed.

Scottish elections are less than 7 months away, on 7th May 2025.

Let's hop[e Rachel gives some consideration to the future and not just her current black hole.

SK Earthon Seeks Buyer for $140 Million Vietnam Oil Stakes.

A possibility for ENQ to acquire, includes production and reserves, given ENQ's capabilities and growing Asian presence, they might be consider a good partner.

Ron, interesting - the forecasts are more bullish than I would expect given the current prices and bearish media comments.

If these forecasts materialise ENQ will do just fine and exceptionally well without the punitive EPL dragging the company to a standstill.

The falling price of oil is worrying for ENQ holders however, I think the forecasts are over pessimistic, if POO drops down to the $50's, I think countries and particularly China and USA will bolster their strategic reserves. The US SPR still has a licenced capacity to accommodate a further 300,000,000 barrels of oil alone and don't forget, the US made plenty of money selling off during price shocks., such as the Ukraine War.

China is increasing its SPR capacity and buying to fill it, China's SPR capacity is a state secret but China's total storage capability is thought to exceed 1200,000,000 barrels.

In addition, prices in the $50 range will stunt investment and the result will be declining production and higher prices, with overall decline in reserves. Low prices might also fuel economies which might counter the impact of renewable reducing the overall size of the market.

It could well be an uncomfortable 2026 with or without EPL for ENQ, but the balance sheet is strong enough to weather a rough year, let's hope changes to EPL come soon, which will help the MCap.

Now here is an interesting statistic, there are no planned exploration wells in the UK North Sea this year simply because there is no viable business case under the current UK NS policy and tax regime. However, Norway is drilling 40, the bulk of which are in the North Sea.

Interestingly, the Norwegians are also drilling horizontally through "exhausted" fields and are able to extract the viably the oil remaining.

So in Norwegian NS we have increasing production over 5 years and sustained into the medium term and the UK production has declined 40% over five years - duh!.

O&G is part of any transition which ever way you cut, CO2 is CO2 whether imported or "home grown" - when is the Government going to wake up and scrap EPL and open up licences? They had better do it damned quick to avoid losing infrastructure, supply chain and jobs!

If the decline of the NS continues, the UK will have one of the World's most valuable resources but won't be able to viably get it out of the ground

"Warning North Sea poised to miss out on 23000 jobs as 110 firms demand windfall tax reforms"

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/110-energy-firms-demand-windfall-tax-reforms-amid-warning-north-sea-poised-to-miss-out-on-23000-jobs-5359859

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/10/13/north-sea-oil-britain-norway/

Interesting article in the Telegraph comparing Norway's NS O&G to the UK's - worth a read.

The pressure on the Government to do something continues to rise, the media is starting to get the narrative right and sentiment appears to be changing, falling HMRC revenues should grab Rachel's attention as I expect the OBR will also continue to revise downwards. The Scottish elections are the catalyst to force change and if Starmer and Rachel don't make meaningful changes to licencing and EPL this November, I don't see much change happening without a major Government shake up and plenty of resignations.

Under the circumstances ENQ is doing O.K. at the moment but the continuous wait for any substantive news is wearing........

"Scotland’s Deputy First Minister has urged the Chancellor to scrap and replace the windfall tax on oil and gas at the next Budget."

Let's hope Rachel and Starmer are listening?

I am not sure cancelling EPL is such a problem for the Government, especially if they cancelled it for oil and not gas.

My reasoning is that EPL receipts were £3.6bn in 2023-4 and £2.9bn 2024-25, if we say Brent has fallen by say on average 13.3% and production decline has accelerated to 12%, EPL taxable receipts must surely have fallen well below £2bn especially as the fall in the average price of Brent is much greater as a percentage that from '23 to '24. Don't forget that the Government's share of decommissioning costs is also accelerating upwards whilst a thousand jobs are lost a month.

The NS Oil/gas split is roughly 60/40, so I suspect Rachel will have to find £1bn..........in exchange the country over time gets £134bn estimated benefit.

As I say someone needs to do the maths.

"Calm down dear!"

Hopefully we'll have the biggest and last laugh in November with changes to licencing and EPL, if there is no change before the Scottish elections - "we are all doomed".

Have a stiff drink and muse on how many ENQ shares you are going to buy tomorrow; following the example set by our Directors.

First off it is "ENQUEST", a well run company but it is true to say that EPL has been punitive but then look at HBR at 40% of MCap since EPL, whilst massively changing strategy, both buying and selling assets, paying a dividend and buybacks. My point being is that all NS O&G companies have been woefully impacted by EPL and licence restrictions etc.

ENQ continues to be an efficient NS producer, expanding in Asia, increasing production to around 35,000boepd by 2030 from Asia alone, has billions in losses to offset against tax, two very prospective NS fields, financing is well controlled, decommissioning around a third of wells plugged and now pays a dividend.

ENQ remains a going concern that will survive EPL 2030, but my money is on EPL changes in the near future - what do you think that will do to the undervalued ENQ sp. Whilst I watch HBR with interest, ENQ is where I have been buying recently.

Nice asset but I am guessing to rich for AB with upfront costs for a 32% stake where they are not operator might take too long to meet AB's returns criteria, having said that, once on board, nice cash flow and efficiency,production cost figures.

Don't forget, ENQ now has 35,000beopd coming on stream in next 5 years from Asia, an organic growth strategy can take time but if it avoids massive debt, that can't be a bad thing.

Unlikely as HBR and ENQ strategies are different, why would HBR buy ENQ having divested a similar part of its portfolio including Vietnamese assets to ENQ. HBR is too big for ENQ to take on HOWEVER, it is possible ENQ could buy some more HBR assets, but I would guess both parties will now wait until the end of November before making a move as Government strategy may change on EPL and Licencing, along with the POO which could all affect asset values considerably.

"it comes as a future economy scotland report found scotland had lost three oil and gas jobs for every one job created in the clean energy sector.

mr *****, who represents aberdeen south, claimed there was “no just transition” under uk energy secretary ed miliband."

now the statistics that are coming out about renewables, net zero, jobs, costs, impact on the economy, ns losses in production, energy costs, tax revenues etc are all pointing towards a transition strategy that is not working, even the obr got the revenues from epl negatively wrong by a factor of three. someone sensible and of standing needs to collate and prioritise some of these key indicators into a simple set of bullet points which are easy to read and digest with the aim of clearly defining common sense which might then prevail over zealous utopian rhetoric and associated herd mentality by the easily lead as opposed to the thinking silent majority. we all want sustainability but that is not what is being built at the moment and if the economy fails, any dreams of sustainability will die with it. exporting our co2 at the expense of our own industry to claim a lead in the net zero contest is laughably as other economies benefit from our folly and hubris.

ns o&g is undoubtedly an important element of the interim transition, the technology for long term sustainability is not fully developed - a work in progress which will not be achieved without a strong economy, realistic strategy and resources.

cancel epl, open up ns licences, reset net zero targets, reduce subsidies and energy prices and develop a strategy that will deliver long term solution.

the abyss is deep and we stand with our economy on the edge of it largely thanks to the last government and the zealotry of one man in this government - yes eddy milibrain, those that have means are leaving and it appears our "friend" eddy is hell bent on levelling us all downwards to the point where we will all live in the ruins of our cities or mud huts, but at least we'll have the intermittent glow of a light build to huddle around when the wind blows.

How would nationalisation of NS O&G companies work? Should I be worried?

Confiscation is unlikely, compulsory purchase pretty unlikely, but acquiring whilst the market is depressed by Government inflicted policy is not totally beyond possibility e.g. using the proceeds of EPL to acquire assets for GB Energy. However, if any of he afore mentioned take place, Reeves can forget economic growth as no one would invest in the UK and anyone that could leave would.

Sir Jim R. made an interesting observation, 30% of taxes are paid by the top 1% which is more than the bottom 90% and the wealthy you are the more mobile you can be, hence the exodus of wealthy individuals including Sir Jim from the UK under the current regime. If you want economic growth you need the skills and investment made by the top 1%!

Whilst Government economic policy is not always rational or properly thought through in terms of unintended consequences, the Government is going to have back track on some manifesto promises otherwise this Budget is going to severely damage the economy making a recovery very difficult indeed. The easiest one in O&G licences (no cost £0, some income), raise income taxes (cost £just credibility), EPL abolished and replaced with much fairer scheme (cost £probably not a lot given POO and diminishing production/rising costs, long term £bns of benefit), changing net zero policies and subsidies (cost saving £billions), plus there are plenty of other cost saving, some controversial but necessary, along with simplifications and better managing overall Government and taxes.

Given how bullish AB was about the EPL strategy review, a directors share purchase, the Scottish election just six months away and the dire state now revealing itself in numerous sets of statistics, M&A activity, companies in administration, media attention and job losses, hopefully we and ENQ will hear positive news within the next six weeks on licences and EPL.