Member Info for AIMOilking

I find this constant bleating on about wealth taxes annoying and Streeting is thinking of a Wealth Capital Gains Tax - I am not quite sure what this means but I thought we were already paying 24%! The Government(s) have already slashed the CGT allowance to £3000 and slashed or frozen other allowances. The problem is that the wealthy will leave and this is already proven the case and the middle classes will take the brunt of these so called wealth taxes. I would not class myself as a wealthy person but as I dream of ENQ's sp heading towards a 60p party level, I am thinking perhaps I should go abroad and reside in a country with a less punitive regime than the UK, after all the trip will effectively be free and paid for by the HMRC!!

I agree with Rom, I think a deal is being discussed and as long as both parties are pragmatic about the future price of oil, a deal could be struck and on ENQ's side, the tax losses would help mitigate some risk. I also believe POO will be high (well above ENQ's per barrel costs) for some time to come, perhaps end of 2027.

It seems counter intuitive that ENQ should buy assets at the "top" of the market, although I still suspect we have not yet seen the real highs of POO. Equally, sellers might well be straining at the leash to sell..............so, the are all grown ups and sure even in these conditions compromises can be reached. The chances of EPL being modified whilst POO is high has to be slim and whilst a the Government made positive noises about a $90 mechanism threshold they will probably pull a Jeremy Hunty and water down the conditions in their favour. So if a company wants to divest assets for whatever reason, it will require a degree of pragmatism on both sides of the deal. The seller may wish to reduce debt or wish to accelerate projects while POO is forecast to be high, not doing a deal may cost future opportunities.

Like Ron, I am certain ENQ is in discussions and I would not have released financial data in the midst of a serious negotiation. I also still believe that Capital costs in Q1 and production loss would have produced figures below expectation, an expectation that will be substantially corrected by the end of Q2 if POO remains high and there are no further hick ups, plus production holds at 50,000bpd.

Like Ron, I believe a deal may be closer than we think and that ENQ believe they can do a deal which will accelerate the use of tax losses, to a degree the tax losses mitigate some aspects of deal risk and give ENQ a competitive advantage in some if not all deals.

DYOR, my gut feeling is we'll here some news soon, and so I bought yet more ENQ shares, and will probably do again once the Divi comes through, with the ENQ sp dropping to the low 18p's, it will be interesting to see if the share reacts to Divi re-investment.

Guys, I think I am right in saying the $60m Magnus purchase payment fell in Q1, plus other capital costs and the third party shut down, so this would skew the headline debt reduction figures despite higher FCF's being achieved. So keeping quiet for now and letting the Q2 FCF's and potentially 50,000bpd (as previously advised) roll in to the coffers makes sense. The sp may drift a little with out an update but equally poor headline figures could tank the sp and impact any negotiations etc.

It is frustrating, but perhaps a buying opportunity as well. I no longer get impatient because inevitably and for a range of reasons, ENQ will be rerated and with the more time that passes, the rise in sp may will be sharper and higher than expected, so holding and whenever possible accumulating.

Personally, I believe there are three reasons for no update:

High Capital costs in Q1 would skew headline figures;

ENQ is in discussions and does not want to give any indication as to the strength of its balance sheet, I certainly would not release financial information unnecessarily in the middle of a negotiation unless it was in my interest to do so;

If Reeves is about to move on EPL, a stream of good results from independents might see the Government delay to grab more cash.

Stevo's point with regard to price/demand is basically correct, but strategic reserves will mop up any slack in the market and I see Brent being in the $85-100 range for some time with occasional spikes, and as long as ENQ can sell its 45,000bpd plus, it should do well.

Brent is over $100 and the longer the crisis continues the higher the average price over the next 12-24 months.

Official - we will no9t hear anything from ENQ in the form of an update until the half year results are published.

However, RNS's on transactional activity is another matter. Although, valuing assets at this time could be difficult?

Personally, current asset values should be updated, perhaps incrementally as the long term POO forecast increases.

Looking forward to the divi falling into my account and perhaps at least a similar 33% increase next year? Still frustrated the company has not continued even a small buyback to mop up and liquid shares.

Continue to hold as ENQ is seriously undervalued, oil is undoubtedly going to remain high for many reasons, the government may come to their senses over O&G policy, ENQ management's track record remains top quality and from Q2 ENQ debt must be falling which will lead to a rerate and potentially entry into the FTSE 250.....................what is not to like - DYOR

Thanks for AGM feedback and I'll try and make it next year.

I have been adding recently, surprised at the drop back below 20p, but remain very optimistic about the medium/long term, particularly in relation to 2026 net debt reduction and impact of lower costs and interest costs. I also recall that ENQ stated that after the third party forced shutdown, ENQ was pumping 50,000bpd, so the combination of three months of higher revenues and possibly higher production than yearly predicted average should make a real difference to the balance sheet by 22nd May update. That difference could be surprisingly good if the physical prices achieved on non-hedged sales have been higher that paper prices. After months/years of averaging down, I find that I am now averaging up but the argument remains the same and that is ENQ is undervalued, will eventually re-rate and the management team may yet pull another rabbit out of the hat, in the meantime POO will remain higher than we thought compared with the beginning of this year.

I wonder if ENQ might have been a little more proactive in decommissioning costs if EPL had not been in place and so punitive? I am guessing that from a balance sheet perspective, it was better to delay and risk a fine than look as if you were insolvent by reporting even larger losses and also possibly missing out on opportunities that might advance the company as a whole rather than spend cash and borrowing on decommissioning. I suppose there has been a short term reputational risk but I don't think that will worry decommissioning customers and whilst £16.5m could have been paid out as a dividend instead, given the higher oil prices, I am not sure I am too worried about the fine unless there are more in the pipeline. My guess is the Government has succeeded in effectively just put up decommissioning costs!?

Anyway, this will be a storm in a tea cup, if the Government is forced to do a u turn on the North Sea and EPL. If Millibrain just approves a couple of licences, I just hope the O&G companies say that's great but respond by saying the projects are not viable under the current punitive UK tax regime which incidentally is unique to the O&G industry - the Defence industry is not being punished, traders making a packet on the oscillations of the markets are probably domiciled in tax havens and those on benefits are not being taxed on this month's inflationary windfall.......

Several things come to min:

I assume that ENQ hedges have subdued the ENQ sp, but I bet AB is telling the team to pump as much oil as possible to take advantage of higher Brent prices over and above hedges, it may be this extra few barrels that provide a nice surprise when the 6 month figures are announced;

I presume that AB will concentrate on bringing near term projects into production;

If the outlook is higher POO then perhaps ENQ should be rerated;

Ed Millibrain may well reluctantly authorise Jackdaw but I am hoping that the operators say thanks very much but unless you remove EPL it is not viable, at that point the Government will be over an EPL barrel and we have a chance of a change in the EPL policy,

A change in EPL policy to a fairer regime would put rocket boosters under ENQ's share price.

ENQ has had a nice positive sp trend since mid December , doubling in price, I believe we'll see a doubling of the sp between now and the year end and possibly a tripling if EPL is substantially revised and replaced by a sensible mechanism.

Apparently, the Government is getting an extra 7p a litre in tax from fuel, and probably doubled revenue from heating fuel, so perhaps they could use this to offset and accelerate further tax revenues from the NS by cancelling EPL.

Long term holder looking forward to the dividend and a stronger ENQ balance sheet and sp at the year end.

Reforms Farage tried to raise the question of EPL/O&G in PMQ's today and as is now normal, the ridiculous PM failed to answer the question.

What is the point of having PMQ's if the PM never answers an opposition question and repeatedly uses PMQ's as a party political broadcast? Even the Speaker seems to have lost patience with the PM as in an aside he effectively said that he was not responsible for the quality of the PM's answers.

ENQ seems to be holding above 20p and it is exactly one week until the results are confirmed and we get a decent update. In the meantime, Brent is hovering around the $109 mark.

After some appalling performances by Liebor Ministers this week it appears they have all gone to ground apart from ED MILLIBRAIN, does this mean there is chum in the water either for Starmer or perhaps EPL?

Did Millibrain rush to fill the gap or was he pushed into the Limelight - which ever the case, he seemed remarkably ill prepared.

I am waiting for the Oil markets to open as an indication as to what is in store for us and ENQ this week?

M I L L I B R A I N - NEEDS TO BE SACKED!

Appalling interview and I am afraid Laura lost an opportunity to pin him down and ask the right questions of the shadow secretary.

How is it that Milliband holds such sway with Reeves and Starmer? What really peeves me is Reeves and Starmer trot out the same home grown Millibrain nonsense and simply do not fathom the O&G industry and associated economics and fundamental damage being inflicted by EPL and subsidies added to energy bills.

Tomorrow should be interesting for ENQ, I suspect the POO will rise, I just hope institutions hold rather than sell to take profits. We are now days away from an ENQ update which I hope will include a debt position for the latest possible date, so we can see the impact of higher POO.

I would also like to see an educated guess at the increase in FCF per day based on a $100pb price compared with say a $70 pre war barrel.

Unfortunately, I fear that hedging will yet again wipe out much of the higher oil price benefit for the small independents, although those higher prices will be around longer than we expect as the war continues. Recovering infrastructure including well production, filling strategic reserves and sorting out logistics will take exponentially longer as the conflict continues. Karg Island is Trump's only play and it will be weeks before he can take and hold it and holding it will something like holding a foothold at Dunkirk! It would appear that Trump is already a war criminal, I would also say he is an environmental criminal as well, Putin and Trump have both made the same mistake and underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainians and Iranians, the difference is that Putin caused economic disruption (mainly Europe) and strengthened some of Russia's alliances but Trump may cause the collapse of civilisation as we know it.................

I fear that even when the war stops, the West will experience a prolonged period of asymmetric warfare and Trump may have inadvertently strengthened a post war Iranian regime and recruitment of many more "terrorists".

The question is in pure investment terms for this BB is - how will the ENQ sp perform during this termoil?

High Oil prices, production in relatively politically stable and safe environment , debt under control and now falling and potentially the "penny will drop" that EPL needs to change will ensure a steady ENQ sp rise, especially as debt risk is removed and debt service costs, production in SEA rising, but the rerating spring board will only arrive with a deal or epl changes. Currently, I see sp accelerated progress the longer the war lasts and the effects will run through to the end of 2026, the EPL changes will take place in 2027 because Reeves will not give up increasing EPL receipts on her windfall.

I have a cold which turned into Manflu after watching Reeves before a Parliamentary Committee this morning, even taking into account my condition I could not believe Reeves could fall lower in my opinion, her responses were so bad I started to count the number of "err" "umms" and frequency which worked out at roughly every third or fourth word. After 20minutes I decided that the Manflu was Rabbies as I started frothing at the mouth!

Starmer, Reeves and Milliband need to go, they may be stupid but we are not, if they think their answers fool us, then their IQ is lower than I thought.

About half an hour into PMQ's the PM was asked a question about EPL, his answer was that under the SNP and conservatives 70,000 jobs were lost and nuclear is the way forward.

Personally I think the PM should be held to account and answer questions from opposition and not use PMQ's as a political broadcast.

Given the current war and Starmer and Milliband's bromance, I can't see anything happening on EPL until Starmer goes in May, even then if the left get more control it may be a while.......

I have been a little quiet lately, holding my breath as events unfold and feeling a little guilty that ENQ's rise has been in part due to other people's suffering.

I think we'll see a steady rise as many will be selling into the sp peaks, the number of trades recently have dramatically increased and I have to say I have been doing a little trading as the peaks and troughs have been sufficient for a little profit and increase in overall holding.

However, I am surprised ENQ's rise has not been sharper today, perhaps we'll see a further rise into the afternoon, although I wonder if yet again hedging has capped some of the sp rise, although if higher rates of hedging lock profits/FCF's in for the next 12 months a decent update/AGM/analyst briefs may well improve the gradient of a steady sp climb. The key to unlocking the NS O&G industry and ENQ's sp will however be a meaningful change or scrapping of EPL, unfortunately with Rachel raking in extra EPL cash, I think these changes have been pushed back, possibly to 2028.

It appears Keir is going to double NZ targets to get cosy with EU - https://uk.news.yahoo.com/starmer-surrenders-eu-net-zero-192119457.html

Any thoughts on what the ENQ sp will do this week?

The last time ENQ hit 16.5p, the price of Brent was exactly the same as it is today!?

Maybe we'll break out from here if Brent holds, in theory ENQ's revenue is up around $9 a barrel compared with the beginning of January.

Sorry to see Steve B leave ENQ, seemed like a very personable and knowledgeable guy.

The dollar is at 1.38 at the moment. I hope AB hangs on to his dollars until the Iranian crisis is over as a lot of ENQ costs are in pounds.

ENQ should be higher @$70.

Update looking better and better by the day, in theory ENQ should be generating $500,000 a day extra gross FCF, plus any hedging will help secure a decent 2026 result. Pretty confident now that we'll see an equivalent or better dividend this year.

"New North Sea board launched to drive a fair and prosperous transition"

Appears heavily weighted towards renewables - not surprising, however, O&G is represented and it is another avenue to push on EPL.

Nice rise today, presumably thanks to Trump's Armada heading for the Gulf, the question is will there be a further escalation in tensions with Iran or will someone climb down, at which point ENQ's shares will undoubtedly follow.

Added today with the rise in Brent which is now over $67 this evening.

AB said 6 months for a transformational deal, but GP said 18 months, we are now 20 months since that AGM. To be fair to both AB and GP, I can'[t imagine that they expected EPL to last this long. The rhetoric against EPL does continue to strengthen with the the GMP and Unite unions not holding back the punches with respect to their thoughts on EPL. Presumably the unions still have some sway with the Labour Party and surely GMB's Mrs Gilmour's comments must smart a little:

Ms Gilmour writes: “Our governments seem stricken, almost delusional, in the face of onrushing disaster, insisting we must ignore today’s reality and believe in tomorrow’s dreams as arguably the most destructive industrial calamity in our nation’s history – a disaster risking untold jobs, communities, even higher bills, and our energy security – unfolds.”

I still believe there is an eight week window (From 1st January) in which Labour can do another U-Turn, this time on EPL prior to the Scottish Elections, after that it will be too late and we'll have to hope the next PM is not Milliband and has more sense.

Now less than a month to hopefully the next update, which must be getting better by the minute as Brent continues well above the dismal H1 forecasts.