Member Info for AIMOilking

Fairly normal trading day for ENQ until just after 15:00 when some heftier trades went through. I would say this is slightly unusual and wonder whether this is off the back of positive sentiments towards NS O&G or did some punters just see a buying opportunity to top up with the sp down and Brent up above $68 again - or do we have leakage on a possible deal? Something must crack on Waldorf and even Prax in the near term.

Also of note Starmer's No 10 reshuffle, perhaps getting his house in order before a major cabinet reshuffle, with a new economic advisor, perhaps they understand the need to press the NS O&G production button and radical changes to EPL?

Personally, I think POO will oscillate around the $60-75 mark for the foreseeable future but if it falls substantially due to over supply (unlikely due to lack of sufficient overall investment), I was just wondering if our bountiful Government will bail out the NS O&G industry having stolen the last three years profit? I doubt it as the coffers are already empty!

Sentiment on NS O&G is turning and eventually common sense wins out over BS and self-interest, apart from Labour and the Greens, all the other political parties are now understanding the folly of Government policies over the last few years and it will become one of the easy scoring battle fields of any election. NS O&G remains a couple of signatures away from being a growth and investible industry again compared with its current trajectory. The chances are that even Labour will realise this with the Scottish elections approaching, the changing sentiment, falling tax revenues and nonsense of net zero calculations in relation to imported O&G as opposed NS O&G, even if oil refining cannot be achieved here but in Europe.

Hopefully, by November, ENQ will rise from the ashes of EPL to once again have a MCap representative of its value as a successful and profitable company. In the meantime, I hope that our ENQ update later this month will push the sp higher or even a deal or two.

Just looked at the price of Brent on 5th May 2025 @$60 and the price of Brent today @£68, the related share prices on 2nd May 13.14p (5th Bank Holiday) and today 12.64p. So the sp is 4% down, Brent is up over 13%, in theory ENQ revenues are up on that difference $336,000 a day (42,000x8), although average Brent was $71 in August. It is true ENQ's sp dropped on the last update which coincided with another drop in Brent, but bounced on the Vietnam announcement (14.62p) for which the PSC's have now been signed and an additional 35,000boepd is expected by the end of the decade etc etc blah blah.........I cannot fathom the current ENQ sp?

I do know Rachel could do something about the sp, just a signature to cancel EPL, having said that our vaping Deputy PM seems to have a way with figures, an apparent saving of £40,000 of Stamp duty, a possible saving of £4,000 in second home Council Tax on her grace and favour apartment and the ability to vote in one of three constituencies or does she get three votes? Plus two bites of the right to buy cherry; all this whilst being the Minister in charge of election law and Council Tax. Perhaps Rayner could be our next Chancellor particularly as these recent antics may have shot her chance of PM in the foot!

I have worked out that Government tax changes over the last 4 years, particularly in the last budget has probably knock up to 40% off the value of my home, up to 60% some homes (real cases - difference between offer 3 years ago and recent offer) the number of properties going to auction after failing to sell has dramatically increased this year, plus the number of farms for sale has shot up in the last few months. One old chap sold his farm before the budget and paid a large amount of capital gains, bought woodland to offset inheritance tax (some may call this tax avoidance) and will now be hit with 40% on most of it, he could sell but only the companies that split the land into little pieces are interested at 60% discount on what he paid, whilst these little woodlands allow people some freedom, it is certainly not doing any favours for the environment as these new owners first action is to get a bulldozer in to flatten land and plonk various caravans, vehicles and huts on the ground, burn their rubbish and leave the whole lot to rot when they get bored.

Labour are upsetting the recognised order in this country and the latest ideas for Council Tax reform, Mansion duty, Stamp Duty, second home taxes and planning permissions, inheritance tax plus even the idea of Wealth Tax will have unintended consequences including a stagnant housing market, reducing investment in all forms and people from all walks of life will be leaving the country for a better life - two of my neighbours, their adult children and my niece have already left.

Apologies for the rant, watching events unfold is depressing and ENQ's sp is not helping - when are we going to hit the current target of 29p??

Oxygen, positive thinking and it might provide some wiggle room for NS O&G, but it all depends on how big a hole Rachel has dug for us all. Poor old Rachel, just a year in and the difficult job of Chancellor seems to have aged her more than previous Chancellors but then Rayner's vaping in a dinghy look was undoubtedly a low point for any Deputy Prime Minister. Makes Starmer look quite good really and unchanged, may be he has a survival strategy, hence a lack of a reshuffle.

The following link is to a fairly hard hitting article about Rosebank and the future of the NS basin, it highlights a ridiculous situation for a country which despite protestations against O&G will continue to import O&G for decades to come and probably as long as someone has the commodity for sale.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Britains-Biggest-Untapped-Oilfield-Put-on-Hold-as-Climate-Rules-Bite.html

I am just glad ENQ is investing outside the UK although watching the sp of a well run company is akin to watching paint dry or a flatlining patient in an ICU. I must say I was a little disappointed and frustrated that the update has been delayed by three weeks, let us hope it brings better news as a result.

Yes Frac, thank you for raising this point which I also noticed. It just confirms what we all know and that is EPL is based on a false premise and is effectively institutional theft and I just wish the NS O&G industry would call the Government out and threaten legal action. The publicity alone at the moment might at least make the likes of Starmer and Reeves squirm and do something about EPL. As I have said before, the Scottish elections are the nearest thing to a pressure point for Labour, they went from 1 to 37 seats in the last General Election and they currently have 22 MSPs to potentially lose in the May 2026 elections just over eight months away.

The OBR responded pretty quickly and it is shown below.

Looking through the forecast briefly, it is clear that a number of forecasts are adrift in a bad way, although we don't have all the figures for 2025, but bank rate, house building, unemployment, gas prices etc.

As far as EPL revenues, decommissioning costs, investment, production levels, it all makes pretty poor reading and it is worth having a look at the last link on projections, my guess is that these are all worse than anticipated and the OBR needs to look at them in ore detail - someone does and a proper analysis will show the impact of EPL as it kills the golden goose.

OBR response:

The OBR's latest forecast for oil and gas revenues can be found in Table A.5 from Annex A of the OBR’s Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO). This has projections for offshore corporation tax, petroleum revenue tax and energy profits levy. A memo line in Table A.5 has total oil and gas revenues.

Link - CP 1289 – Office for Budget Responsibility – Economic and fiscal outlook – March 2025

More information on the OBR’s oil and gas forecast can be found in the forecast-in-depth page on the OBR website.

Oil and gas revenues - Office for Budget Responsibility

Table A.3 from Annex A of the OBR’s EFO has projections for prices and production for both oil and gas while Table 3.15 from the detailed forecast tables: receipts spreadsheet has forecasts for different types of expenditure by oil and gas firms, including decommissioning expenditure.

https://obr.uk/download/march-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts/?tmstv=1756206958

The forecasts for production and expenditure are based on forecasts from the North Sea Transition Authority. Our forecasts for oil and gas prices are based on futures prices for the next three years and then assumed to rise in line with major countries’ inflation (around 2% per annum).

Data and insights - Production and expenditure projections https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/data-and-insights/insights-and-analysis/production-and-expenditure-projections/

Taxes paid by oil and gas workers (e.g. income tax and NICs) would be included in the forecast for the appropriate tax stream.

Oil and gas receipts

4.20 Offshore corporation tax, petroleum revenue tax (PRT), and the energy profits levy (EPL) are

expected to raise £4.2 billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in 2024-25, a 21.9 per cent decrease

from 2023-24. This is due to the decline in oil and gas receipts as prices return to historic

norms following the sharp rise in 2022-23. Receipts are then forecast to decline to £2.3

billion (0.1 per cent of GDP) in 2029-30 primarily due to the expected continued fall in oil

and gas production.

4.21 Relative to the October forecast, oil and gas receipts are £0.3 billion lower this year, but an

average of £0.3 billion higher over the rest of the forecast. These changes reflect higher oil

and gas prices and increased production, partially offset by upward revisions to capital

expenditure (which reduce the forecast).

4.22 The increased expenditure and production forecasts mostly reverse the decreases applied at

the October forecast, which were on the basis of policy announcements and other

uncertainties around the licensing regime and ongoing legal cases at that time. In the

October 2024 Budget, a series of changes were announced to extend the EPL for another

year to 2029-30, increase its rate by 3 percentage points, and remove the investment

allowance for all expenditure except that related to decarbonisation, as well as lower the

rate of the decarbonisation allowance from 80 per cent to 66 per cent. Since October,

outturn data and external projections have indicated greater strength than anticipated for

production and expenditure, offering some early evidence that we over-estimated the

response of expenditure and production to these changes. There is a risk that some of the

increased expenditure represents a potential forestalling impact in response to announced

policy changes, though there is uncertainty regarding the extent of this response.

There does seem to be some confusion over the half-year reporting date, although it now says 24th on the ENQ PLC website, previously I had seen 2nd on third party site and 3rd on another site. I decided to do a little research:

5th '24

5th '23

6th '22

2nd '21

3rd '20

5th '19

7th '18

7th '17

8th '16 etc.

So basically, ENQ normally releases first half results in the first week of September, so why the 24th September this year?

There has to be a reason and it my be as simple, perhaps an uplift of oil fall between the results and the 24th, so the accompanying update can report better figures than the actual results or more interestingly, perhaps a deal is on the cards, most likely Waldorf or Prax or an even bigger game changing deal is afoot?

There must be a reason for a 3 week delay........!?

Just noted that ENQ has announced in this morning's press release that Half-year results will be issued on 24th September and there will be a further update on Indonesia.

Apologies for putting out that it was the 2nd, but I wonder if it has been delayed so that other news can be announced?

I have been buying ENQ over the last two weeks in anticipation of this news, an upbeat update on 2nd September and news on Waldorf assets, although I am frustrated that this keeps moving to the right.

Also don't hold out much hope that Ukraine situation will be resolved and am betting Trump will loose patience and ramp up sanctions and tariffs to bring Putin to heel. I suspect that will push the Oligarchs over the edge which will exert greater pressure on Putin and or his replacement. Rocky road ahead but at least ENQ keeps marching in the right direction even if handicapped by EPL, on the latter, I also hope the Autumn budget will slightly amend EPL and this will be deemed necessary for many reasons not least the Scottish election s in May.

Sorted - 35,000boed to ENQ by 2030, now that is worth having and bodes well for the medium term sp.

Brent at $68.79 as I type - bodes well for tomorrow's open, so let's hope ENQ's sp recovers a little.

Suggest EPL is scrapped and NS independents drill for a bit more gas and oil, we might just need it for a little more energy security and "growth" if Ed's windfarms are running out of puff!

Reevesy will soon have to explain why she is unable to collect £325,000,000 of overdue EPL payments owed to HMRC that are unlikely to be recoverable.........

Why? Because Waldorf and Prax have gone into administration - I can't help wondering what state they would have been in without having to pay EPL??

Then Reevesy will also have to explain why EPL has not generated as much tax revenue as expected - also why it is in rapid decline, but I suspect that reduced investment in NS O&G, increased imports and increasing decommission costs will all be beyond her comprehension. I wonder if she ever ponders why companies are going bust and those that aren't are investing overseas.....

I have not checked directly with ENQ IR, but read on a credible share site that the update is due on 2nd September 2025. Last year it was on the 5th.

Apparently, just 9 days to next ENQ update - should be interesting and let's hope the sp rises into the report, those reduced lease costs should start to make their presence felt.

There seems to be some selling over the last couple of days, not huge volumes but today selling 11:1 ratio with some 200,000's and a 1,000,000 trade. This seems a little surprising given Prax and Waldorf deals could be imminent and Brent is up a little this week.

I have been buying over the last week, partly because of the relative low ENQ sp, partly slight rise in Brent, partly because articles demanding changes to EPL, the latter I think could be sooner than expected, the later the Autumn budget, the more likely something will be included and there are the Scottish elections in May 26.

They are probably draining the oil from our side of the border!!

There are very few cases where ideology should trump common sense - when will common sense prevail over the Government's NS O&G policies?? I just hope they wake up and smell the coffee before it is all too late or they just tinker instead of making a decisive decision preferably to scrap EPL completely.

The question is are they just putting a chunk of money in for a better return or is it the prelude to a take over?