focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
It simplifies governance and that equates to some cost and and more importantly some management time. A simplified share structure will make it easier to do many things whether it is M&A or buybacks etc.
Just be grateful that AB has skin in the game, although I would take 40p from HBR any day this week or anytime in 2023, which would value ENQ at three quarters of billion pounds, not a lot!
In an FT analysis comparing ENQ with 10 others "peer" group companies and excluding HBR where ENQ makes close to 50% of the total revenue, 55% of the peer group and including ENQ are now making a loss. These loss making companies are losing about $370m on revenue of about $2.4bn, so why is there a windfall tax?
This same FT data shows that 41.07% of shares are held by institutional holders, plus AB holds 12.45%, so that makes 53.52% held by significant shareholders above 1.78% each.
Just thought it interesting data.
Looking forward to the spreadsheet update.
Apart from Dividends and repurchases of share, directors buys would also help the sp, so why are they not buying?
It is clear from the ENQ IR departments comments that here are on-going M&A discussions but none have reached a stage that they need to be RNS'ed. The shares are at a give away price but no director buys. I wonder if the BoD has decided not to grab shares and take the pain at the moment, because it suits to have a low share price and MCap from the PR perspective with respect to EPL. They could be reserving their firepower and options in case there is a hostile takeover attempt. In some ways, accept for Pi's looking for a profit or out, the sp is irrelevant at the moment until debt is reduced to the targeted 0.5 ratio or EPL is removed/reduced. We just have to accept the good times have moved to the right but if production and POO hold they should come to those that wait.
It seems the tide is changing - pile on the pressure and see if something can be squeezed out of the Chancellor's next review.
Tommo, we need to start writing to the Chancellor, MP's and anyone that matters. At least AB has got off the fence and between him and Cook we should have some good material for quotes.
Added today, just averaging down a little, hopefully H2 will be better than H1 and Goldman have revised POO up to $107 FOR 2024, so as long as production figures hold up, things should improve for ENQ.
With a $75.8 realised price in H1, a $140m of FCF was generated, if production forecasts stay the same and the current roughly $91 is maintained for the rest of the year, we might be looking at an extra $100m of extra revenue, less EPL, we should be looking at a total $200m FCF for H2. Any increase in POO or production for the remainder of the year could generate roughly another $6.5m per $ increase in POO or $13m for an extra 1000bpd less tax.
The ENQ upside is looking interesting and debt reduction should increase pace for H2. As debt reduces, finance costs decrease and so does risk, which means we should see a better sp performance which will be reinforced with a November update, the next news date in the absence of nothing else happening.
Today was a shock but whilst all the things we are waiting for our undoubtedly moving to the right, it would appear recent and potentially higher POO will at least be a mitigating factor, ensuring a sp rise in due course. Perhaps this is a buying opportunity.
Swedish delisting will save a few pounds but more importantly it will relieve management time spent on two markets, ENQ would be better registered on the US market.
Results slightly below my personal expectation - damned EPL!
$89 !! I'll be up early tomorrow for the report and if that does not budge the sp with POO at $89, I'll eat my hat! ENQ 1.4% up today, slightly frustrating the sp did not hold onto the 18's.
With POO at $88+, I am expecting a tick up on the ENQ sp tomorrow, supported by the expectation of some decent figures on Tuesday, if the BoD can deliver, it would be nice to see a re-rate post results.
Krak, I would go as far to say you are likely to be wrong, I think the BoD have made it clear that they intend to inform us about the policy for returning shareholder value, you think H1 and I think 5th Sept '24.
The other ace in the hole that AB may have is the gas deal struck and starting in May '23, where ENQ is delivering an extra equivalent 4000blspd, if that is all additional revenue, next week could see an interesting improvement since end April. I am more positive about the overall picture, just needs POO and production forecasts to hold good.
I'd like to see Ben Wallace - he seems sensible and tells it like it is!
Brent @ $86.31 and ENQ heading down, hopefully we'll see a little catch up this afternoon and end blue.
Very excited to see the report on Tuesday, let's hope there is a re-rate as a result.
Sekforde, I am sure you are right, this additional facility is a direct result of EPL and ensuring sufficient liquidity. I am still outraged by this whole EPL saga. I wonder if AB's involvement was to give confidence or just to get us over the finish line or just 7% thank you very much.
It is crazy that a government should implement a (retrospective) tax policy based on one spike in POO and largely on a single industry that could not only put viable businesses out of business (liquidity) but also destroy an industry which despite global warming we actually need and contributes massively to GDP and the treasury. Bonkers!
Anyway, ENQ seems set and I am hoping for a steady rise into the results, followed by a nice jump as net debt and shareholder value policy is announced.
All makes sense to me and looking forward to the results, in particular net debt and fleshing out of shareholder return policy. Agree RNS timing odd, although perhaps timed to be after banks meeting with Government, but nevertheless a positive RNS.
Poo a little stronger at the end of the week, let's see what Tuesday brings.
September is next week! Last year the reporting was on 6th September, 12 days away potentially.
Kraken, I think ENQ will give more detail on there shareholder return policy this September and that we remain on target for it to be implemented starting in 2024. Personally, buybacks would seem the most logical, cost effective and flexible. ENQ can choose when and how many, it does not involve the administration of contacting all shareholders and for the shareholders, they are in a better position to manage their CGT compared with simply having to pay tax on Dividends.
September in the tipping point with greater clarity on debt and shareholder returns.
January, if you are worried about production figures and ENQ meeting their year end forecast, why not get in touch with the company and go over the updates etc. This/they will tell you the following:
Kraken down time was used to bring forward and complete scheduled downtime/works for later in the year.
Forecast production holds so no need for update RNS.
Production on all wells has generally been good.
Kraken is back at pre shutdown levels.
Further redundancy in transformers in place September.
September update should clear the air.
M&A discussions will of course be on going, but clearly none warrant an RNS, but watch this space!?
A bit more expression required - I cannottt beeleeive it!!
The September results better be decent and come out soon.
Revenue, production and profits down, but still £337m profit, POO achieved interesting.
Cook looked formidable in photo and I wonder how much she has been able to massage the figures to support political objectives re NS investment and modification of EPL. Would not surprise me if the taps have been turned down whilst manoeuvring and we'll see better results going forward.
Apparently, the company is in active discussions on a number of fronts as one might expect, but none of these possibilities warrant and RNS at this point, but that could change any day, especially given the current environment and it has been some time since some substantive news. Given that nothing is reportable and we are not in a closed period perhaps the BoD have finally decided to buy some more share before the results. I can't remember how far the closed period extends before results are announced.