focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Jeffries cut is a bit dramatic, what has happened since their last target in May that warrants cutting the forecast by a third?
Surely, a fairly cast iron dividend produced by LGEN warrants a higher target price as an income share?
Get a paper certificate for each ENQ share held..............free insulation for stuffing your trousers with or putting under your carpet and a decent bonfire as a last resort.
The way they calculate the EPC means is impractical because I believe it assumes you heat your whole house to 20 degrees which basically means my choices are knock the house down, build another house inside this one or spend a fortune on renewables which will never pay back in my life time. I use no where near the amount of energy that the EPC says I should be, it seems the government has subsidised the renewable industry, perhaps there windfall profits should have EPL applied. Hoping ENQ sp will keep me warm this winter!
I don't know the details but a $600m contract sounds decent enough, perhaps we'll see more news at ENQ on that front. Unless it was balancing the books, nice 500,000+ trade in shares went through this afternoon, not mine although I bought today.
Added a chunk today - averaging down in the hope of a near term recovery in the sp - by near term - November update.
Dumbly, totally agree. Until EPL is modified and assurances are made the NS is a basket case for any investment.
I don't have the skill set or information, but I would love to see a spreadsheet looking at the benefits of EPL to the government, but it would have to include the governments loss of income from all other forms of tax from corporation tax through to income tax from oil workers and capital gains from investors etc etc. Plus it would have to take into account at least the period to 2028 along with the decline in the NS production etc etc.
It would not surprise me if the conclusion is that EPL simply destroys the NS industry and accelerates the demise of the government's and GDP income from the NS.
Sunak and Hunty have just made a short term grab/white collar theft under the cover of JSO extremism. The use of fossil fuels has to be reduced - period, but the reality is that fossil fuels are part of the transition mix, as is improved renewable solutions and infrastructure. In my book Hunty in particular got away with one of the larger MP expenses claims frauds, only to commit a greater crime with EPL, EPL is too high, extended too far, does not allow for all losses and combined with a lack of government or opposition foresight is killing the investment in a critical industry. As I have said before EPL was directed at the wrong industry, by that I mean the small NS O&G independents.
Interesting Steve, I thought I had an implied contract when I bought ENQ prior to EPL, as far as I am concerned the government moved the business goal posts and grabbed ENQ's profit - where do I apply for my compensation for all the ENQ losses I now have????? Still surprised someone has not challenged EPL in the Courts. As an example, if ENQ's average revenue per barrel was $79 due to hedging, where are the excess windfall profits and why is a one off POO spike being taxed through to 2028? Not expecting an answer - just making a point as a I cry over missing out on the 60p party and all those temporarily suspended dreams.
Brent now $96.63 - I think we will deffo end BLUE!
Brent at 95.63 up 1.78%, if that holds then I think that 15p is golden, now at 15.34p which is 6.53% up. A good day given what we have been through recently as shareholders. If we have hit the bottom, ENQ sp should at least rise by the amount of debt being reduced and pundits generally seem to think $100 for Brent is on the cards.
Thanks Dumbly, if anyone wants to use or modify the letter to send out to MP's, feel free to do so, although your point about the NS O&G industry needing a stable tax regime etc. going forward is a point worth including, to reduce the risk for future investment.
As the sp sinks lower, I wonder how many stop losses are being triggered?
I have to say this ENQ sp death spiral thanks to EPL is getting pretty gritty and thankfully POO is heading up again after a couple of rocky days. I hope that the November update will lead to a re-rate, if the debt reduction figures are good. However, AB must be in some pretty serious M&A discussions to feel unable to support the sp with a few director buys. The PR team have acknowledge multiple discussions are taking place, however, none of them have reached the point where they need to be RNS'd. But given the impact of EPL - Waldorf being an example - I would have thought that it would be in companies interest to move discussions on a s quickly as possible, unless AB is playing poker face to avoid paying over the odds if EPL continues to make companies more desperate. Anyone else spotted a NS O&G company heading towards the rocks?
The potential fire sale of Waldorf is ridiculous and solely as a result of EPL. I am fed up with Hunt, he is a waste of space and I know, having met him many times. So, I decided to vent my spleen on the Treasury Secretary and I do feel better, well that was until I looked at ENQ's sp again..................
Dear Mr Glen,
The small North Sea Oil and Gas producers are being unduly penalised by the EPL tax (35% to 2028). These companies provide the UK with some of its energy security, make the UK a world leader in oil exploration, ensures skilled jobs and contributes to both GDP and taxes.
Put simply, EPL is destroying the NS O&G industry, making it un-investible and undermining existing finance covenants. Now, I read about the first significant casualty with the potential "fire" sale of Waldorf Production, it would seem purely as a result of the imposition of EPL.
The big oil companies have exited the NS and therefore are largely unaffected, so EPL is misdirected and there has been no "windfall" for the smaller companies due to hedging of oil prices, so that they largely missed out in the spike in oil prices.
EPL is destroying a viable industry which this country needs irrespective of the extreme "Green" agenda. Oil and Gas will be part of transition and will be needed in the future, simply buying it from overseas does not make the UK "greener".
Please get the government to reconsider EPL before it is too late, in reality is just a desperate privatisation of perceived excess profits which is morally wrong and goes against all economic and business sense.
Yours sincerely
Had a very quick glance at the accounts and it would appear that Waldorf are a classic case of EPL kicking them in the nuts!
Some decent assets and US$1.75bn of loses booked, but debt pile at 0.5bn and revenue at 0.5bn, finance costs at $95m plus unquantified decommissioning liabilities and noted hedging as "conservative". Without EPL could have made decent headway against debt, but............ Also noted small number of direct staff, so takeover could be relatively straight forward and if all staff carried - 6m.
Must be worth ENQ taking a look, but would push debt back to $1bn ish, but revenues up $500m and reserves increased - almost a fire sale.........
Here is the link for Waldorf's last set results ending Dec 22 - https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/imQbPuJV5z5IITKK0IH4CwfggRj6qdw_T7PdgvKvPqA/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3HR36DIUQ%2F20230921%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20230921T175127Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=IQoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEAYaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJHMEUCIQDkJ6zn7tbLoSjlv8oHuVhhGX3UhmT3a8u2Wc%2FNor3kBgIgct9xaKRn0KjD%2B1Ri5M%2FRMQdVe1yKIX5JZJbjtXtk4J4qxAUI7%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2F%2FARAEGgw0NDkyMjkwMzI4MjIiDCvkTHR2cCgPzA81CSqYBQNHFyfxpgK%2FWIBigm1PxUT8KmcniIJt2LQ8b3vwTvq0CrxW5e2kq7aq82nMHgQ5f6fRUC7XL0bYmZsfQ41mR%2F7fSqpykhu666hbogI97sO5BrNzAKr%2FCVVM0SFew44zB2sPpjyGv78ns1N8qs4kfu33kN05mDuGFtPtHflVHkwH3BjTnpWLQv5Tvfyuxgsg0WdLmIN8ifDJ3bmsyekeFu8LfNgUKXa030EzS%2F%2BJ7wmmIN5h2xqcMoI6T%2FVRViw3zYPjOLgkbpDtp51D2gcE6Nu7cOiCmDEccOyKkGBzJym%2FPZyidC5iqEzbReIJSMK1lp6F%2BKMvdyxTtjTeTVq3Qb0rcSdcVc7ODOEOKbc4rhHDGwcoAipdv9LWZikdFX4qRhYnePJ72N6g0C8VcnF7WuzdpK11oLo4FzRgq7cMkwMKvONpna1Gu3EdLLmHdjnmL%2BstvXSrerguVDYFfvjw6sFlq1OM9RBNHJbMMnIUX3SHx6rqbzTcehILMKEEU6pv6lXIHIHnh5W6qZjE%2BDLLbqxmODS%2BbN7bjHPQdJmM9d5lkPTIhmKucupPuNnTljG7KSFnMnl7bnxQ57nKtcGv1U2sycXAcZKm%2FEGdEEdvU3M37NHF7YJ60vqNTanKK0M1mHTBGtuY%2Fg4nM9EO%2FAnEx6N6tbJ3cTuK4e27a6Lxw1ruDHNGpTFAPQedkPilAebZExZ5qOg0G%2BgTOl5hgVS4kDu3EnKHumVIDbsz2nIRU1qHtIH2YMlRWcnyeNI3w72z%2B6yd%2FHe6R1H2WHM8qH7V%2FjltEzHY2VTnXwJXqqrBYpJyC1%2B7EJFL7y7%2FggPoKgBnHwp3MB0XFdRteRjD5FV3pHpIZzv94p49LhcOBB7V7upaEDFVNUHYyaEw%2F4uxqAY6sQFqEuoCsIz16R%2FOXlx998TZHk8l8XhGlsvrvlA%2FLYoODGdXnG%2FM4nsKDTg%2BUQcwUbmcrdhowpk89z1ktjQ%2FYvWMViN0vLliulU6eHqbGKlo3Ad11JvS5RsfN3%2BtSNB6QM8HkNpsSMasA5ZkjElM7hf9pitHmwrFPkMq5k2QchzKa7%2BjXvPKIkXtcWQyyeHJFInFtgatBrORUcKC%2FjRz0MZAQgQshTN9VRj5EomNjzJXz2A%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22companies_house_document.pdf%22&X-Amz-Signature=56e3be7eb3f60c21710cfddb3828cf12077900d0f93c491a36dd41c33b788b79
There will come a point when NQ's sp will respond positively to the increasing price of Brent. If ENQ is now getting close to the full price for its oil and gas, revenue, FCF and debt reduction should all pick up this H2. Miserable weather here but hoping for a "Blue" day here at ENQ.
Without EPL1 and EPL2, plus the prospect of an even sillier Labour party, we would be closing on 60p and calling AB a hero.
AB is delivering a reducing debt and has promised shareholder returns in some form, again without EPL, the latter may have started or at least fleshed out.
EPL and market sentiment should be the focus of your angst and I remain convinced that patience in the case of ENQ will be rewarded in 2024, barring more political silliness.
What I cannot understand is how are we going to pay for all this imported energy and green technology without any indigenous production or value generating industry. The UK will have imported its green credentials but the reality is that we'll be too poor as a nation to turn the lights on. I was wondering what I would do as a young person starting their career, I would think long and hard about working overseas and if I liked it, emigrating somewhere else.
Back to reality, bump, with a large ENQ lose to nurse, but hoping a rapid recovery is within a 12 months grasp through debt reduction and FCF generation or M&A activity.
The average size of purchases today seems slightly higher (perception), there could be a bigger buyer out there at the moment given ENQ ridiculously low price and climbing POO. Seems to be positive buying at 5/4 v's sales shown. Good chance we'll end blue today and unfortunately I think that Ukraine will heat up in a last push before the cold weather and with the damage/sinking of two important large vessels and a critical dry dock being the sort of incident to which the Russians will respond. In addition, I think we can say the Summer is over, it certainly feels Autumnal here, so energy demands will put pressure on supply.
It has been a tough week or so as an ENQ long termer and some ways I see AB slating EPL publicly, his team shouting about ENQ tax advantages as a partner and the Swedish delisting as a turning point. ENQ has already confirmed they are in talks on multiple fronts but none RNSable at the moment, the time frame I am now interested in is the November update and announcements around that time following the delisting and particularly on debt reduction and M&A activity.
No - correction - down 3.19%.
POO up:
Investor presentation completed;
New director appointed with "Green" credentials;
Gender box ticked with 50% female BoD.
ENQ SHARE PRICE DOWN 2.56% Nice...............................
Presentation a bit lack lustre, nothing new accept suggestion that the shareholder value return policy will be out by the full year results.