Member Info for AIMOilking

Not ENQ news but due to the lack of any ENQ news, I have posted the following link which is going viral - I thought Reeves was iron clad with Starmer at her back but after this will she last...............https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSmQ4_yKqyI

About time Starmer had a Cabinet shake up with Milliband and Reeves ripe for replacement, may be then EPL will be abolished.

Dumbly, this would make absolute sense and provide a side step for the Government. The only problem I see with this is that the Government is so strapped for cash, a dwindling receipt from EPL may be more attractive than trying to find more cash for the hole it will leave in the Government's immediate finances. Politicians are very short sighted on fiscal matters and lack any appreciation of the consequences of their actions beyond a few months or at best the next election, in the other words the most immediate priority. I fear that NS O&G and EPL are a long way down the list of priorities.

Krak, I was about to write the same, we are 1.26% down and Brent is 3.71% up ???? Let's hope it will be a blue afternoon.

Smoke and Mirrors - I am beginning to loath the sight of Milliband, I believe he is deceiving the public to push his agenda which in itself is a ruinous deceit.

Th fact that a lawyer has taken over as CEO at Waldorf suggests that legal/financial matters trump operational matters and that Waldorf's end game is in play, although a withdrawal of EPL would give them breathing room for better deals. With the current POO, even righting off interest on loans will only delay marginally the inevitable without several things happening such as higher POO, withdrawal of EPL, additional financing, stakeholders playing along etc. Plus, Waldorf's decommissioning liabilities are substantial.........

Interesting - can someone explain how Waldorf is still a going concern with Brent at $63.9 and their level of debt and losses?

I agree a Magnus type deal, but trying to negotiate such a deal must almost be impossible at the moment given geopolitics, current position and potential changes in EPL and UK Government Policy along with the current price of oil and fluctuations. If you put too many caveats in a contract to mitigate both parties risk, HMRC might not see it as a sale or lease from a tax perspective, the lessor might be considered as a contractor?

Just a thought, what about a short term lease of assets from a company paying corporation tax, effectively the deal has 40% tax to split between the two companies?

Brent back over $65, up today 1.33% and ENQ is down after updating a solid performance in difficult times along with plenty of upside to come, so expecting or rather hoping for a blue finish today and assuming that dividend distribution already in the current sp.

Thanks Krak, I look forward to any insight from the AGM....................thanks to EASYJET I did not make the AGM.............tried EASYJET for the first time and out of two flights, two were diverted and it took 40 hours to get home from Europe. Appalling customer service which went beyond the flights, I wanted to change the name of a driver on a rental car and after two weeks of trying, EASYJET said cancel and rebook, but on doing so they wanted another £168 for an identical contract, on principle I went with another company. Annoyed at missing the AGM and I will not be using EASYJET again!

Given the current economic and geo/political environment, I thought the ENQ update was positive and liked AB's EPL statement, the Government has to do something about EPL and soon, perhaps Waldorf's decommissioning costs coming home to roost with the Government may be the turning point - how does a Government explain away bankrupting a profitable and viable company through excessive taxation, accelerate decommissioning costs and take on the Waldorf's 50% of £1bn decommissioning costs whilst making people jobless and reducing short and long term tax revenues?

ENQ has organic growth potential, AB is absolutely right to wait for fire sale assets to drop into ENQ's lap, rather than over pay or take on too much debt.

The economy grew in the first quarter but that may just be because orders were brought forward to avoid tariffs, if that is the case then Q2 might not look so good??

I am sure the low price of oil will help inflation but the Government's EPL and overall tax on oil will be falling sharply due to the low price of oil, field decline and job losses, not to mention any CGT from punters like us. Let's hope she realises that if she wants the economy to grow - NS O&G policy changes are a key to a significant portion of any growth.

Https://www.aol.co.uk/money/net-zero-pave-way-uk-070000600.html

Ed's building UK's largest tower outside London - the purpose of the tower is to allow the even application of insulation to sub sea cables - it amused me to note that they need an oil based insulation for the job! Oops Now will the overseas grown oil will not count towards UK's net zero............

Not sure where you got the $80 figure from and the 65-70 seems a little high, especially given the reduced lease payments.

I am sure that ENQ is still making FCF's at today's $65 a barrel.

Added ENQ again today as we count down to the ENQ update and Waldorf's restructuring deadline which I don't think will be extended given Waldorf's financial position and impending full administration.

Waldorf lost $72.4m in 2024 and Brent average is $5 lower this year, if you add the same level of decline, I reckon Waldorf's revenues will be down about $190m in 2025. At this point Waldorf is hemorrhaging cash and their investors have no hope of recovering the debt through the sale of assets, their only chance would be a massive and immediate rise in POO - unlikely. So, I assume that AB has put an unpalatable offer on the table which the investors in Waldorf refuse to accept - so, next step - Waldorf into full administration and a fire sale of assets. I believe that we are days away from news simply because at current POO and debt levels - Waldorf is no longer a going concern and there is little chance of investors stumping up more cash. I suppose that if EPL were lifted immediately and licences freed up, that might just change things but I don't think Waldorf has that long to wait.

ENQ is below the sp we had a week ago when Brent was $57, it does not make sense.

Theoretically, we are making $200,000+ a day more FCF's even after EPL and yet our sp is still down. If Brent holds, I am expecting a decent sp rise.

I noted that someone sold a million plus shares today which may have dampened the sp a little, but hopefully it will perk up this afternoon, almost tempted to buy a few more with 18 days until Waldorf is supposed to announce its restructuring, and roughly the same time frame for the ENQ update.

Two institutions topping up has to be a vote of confidence and also must tighten share liquidity.

I think we are now in the "real deal zone" in the run up to the AGM, although I question whether it will be transformational but there again Serica prospect came out of left field and AB made good on last year's mention of Indonesia.

POO has bounced a little in the last 24 hours and so we are making FCF, albeit at a slower rate than we would like.

I also think that institutions taking an interest also suggests that the Government is going to have to do something about EPL and soon. It is probably a question of eking as much EPL tax as possible and not impacting financial forecasts, although the low price of oil will be undermining both and potentially making the decision easier to make - Starmer just needs to unplug Milliband. In fact, Milliband could fall on his sword over any EPL and licence decisions rather than just being fired.

Adding under 12p yesterday, looks like it was a good move.

Day - I have pasted Tarmak's spread sheet link below which you may find interesting.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f5HeabHGD6X3LByuOcebN1Cru64VaNu5BLsfJzJsgZ8/edit?usp=sharing

Have a look at the ENQ Update RNS and website presentations and note that we are due another this month which will give an understanding of this year's progress with the current low POO. ENQ is a well run company that is expanding in Asia, it has massively reduced debt, has $2.5bn+ of tax losses and an excellent low cost decommissioning record + a dividend of 5.13% at today's price. ENQ is very undervalued.

I am all in here at ENQ and given they have been touting a transformational deal and Waldorf's assets may also be up for grabs, I am holding and increasing on the lows - DYOR.

There could be a fly in the ointment?

Waldorf stated in April that - "The Company is targeting a completion date for the Restructuring as soon as possible, and no later than May 2025. The Company will continue working with all relevant key stakeholders with a view to completing the Restructuring as soon as possible."

Now it is clear that Capricorn has not received its final payment for their Kraken interest from Waldorf. So, Capricorn could be back in the mix for Kraken and taking back that asset effectively at a discount to either keep or sell on again. Likewise, Waldorf could sell the asset to ENQ for a better price and pay off the debt to Capricorn. My guess is that there is a monumental argument going on between these three parties over the asset's value. However, the sale of the Kraken interest removes a producing asset from the Waldorf portfolio and may not solve their financial problem, it could even make it worse as their revenue falls and they can no longer service the remaining debt. My guess is that Waldorf will try and offload as many liabilities as possible with any sale which may also be a sticking point in any negotiation. The question is - will the restructuring create a viable company or is the whole of Waldorf up for grabs and at what price?

There is only 16 working days to the end of May and the low POO must surely put pressure on closing a deal.

Krak, doing the best I can to hold the sp up - bought a few today.

I few weeks ago, I said I would buy LGEN and swap into ENQ, today sold half said LGEN and purchased more ENQ. So was my strategy successful?

With the fall in ENQ and rise in LGEN incl Divi, I was able to effectively buy 34% more ENQ than I would have a couple of weeks ago, so pretty successful. Now, I am banking on good news from the ENQ update, an improved POO and a deal or two to get the sp up again, plus some common sense news on EPL and Milliband's departure.

A mutually beneficial deal failed to materialise, rather than a "Failure".

Personally, I am happy either way on a Serica deal and believe ENQ remains in a strong position as a going concern with a positive future. Again, personally, I would like ENQ to add simple producing assets that fit neatly with the current portfolio rather than trying to digest another company and corporate culture. I also feel that ENQ is undervalued and consequently the current sp/MCap does not help in negiotiations, plus the geopolitical situation is relatively unstable.

ENQ remains in a strong position with Tax losses and financial liquidity to pursue other opportunities and I expect news any day on some Waldorf assets. A fall in the POO could well also produce opportunities, as companies struggle to find cash and could start to loose money on producing assets, exacerbated by EPL and current policies, which may help ENQ short negotiating position, followed by a recovery in POO once geopolitics settles down and growth returns whilst overall oil production may actually start falling, as investment falls with the POO.

As far as ENQ is concerned, I am certain there will be deals, but who knows if they will be small or company changing, but otherwise I see the current forecasts moving to the right with the falling price of POO and they will move left again soon enough, it is just a matter of patience. In the meantime, the sp stays the same and we get a 4.6%+ dividend, even that I can live with, although it would be disappointing compared to a multi-bagger.