Member Info for AIMOilking

Malu, interesting link. It amused me to see Waldorf were trying to stiff or "Cram Down" HMRC for £75m in EPL tax owed. Waldorf is undoubtedly on the ropes, not something I wanted to see, but it highlights the impact of EPL on NS O&G and may turn out to be ENQ's good fortune should there be a fire sale.

My purchases of ENQ in the last week are all in the blue, just need to reach the 29p target in short order.

The fact is something is going to blow soon and given AB and ENQ's repeated and stated aim to acquire assets to use up the tax losses and the recent Serica attempt, plus £500m liquidity etc. We have seen ENQ's expansion in Asia, but I have always thought that the Waldorf assets were part of the ENQ play. The problem is that Waldorf has managed to fend off capitulating to the administrators because their investors are holding out for two things, higher POO and EPL changes which would substantially revalue their assets. In the meantime, given Waldorf's decommissioning liabilities etc, I doubt if any of their prime producing assets can be sold as Waldorf would no longer be a going concern unless the decommissioning liabilities could be offloaded and any sensible buyer is going to wait it out until the administrators have a fire sale to avoid overpaying, if POO falls and EPL stays in place until 2030.

On the other side of the coin, ENQ could be taken out and with a MCap of £233m, producing NS assets, producing Asian assets ad prospects, decommissioning capabilities, relatively small debt and several times its MCap in Tax losses - ENQ is a juicy morsel for a predator, the question is at what sp would ENQ be taken out and I hope it would be at least £500m / 27p otherwise I would be bitterly disappointed and blame successive Governments for the theft of shareholder value.

The weight of evidence, facts and figures for the reinvigoration of the NS O&G industry grows by the day - the question is :- when will this weight crush EPL and the Government's ridiculous stance on NS O&G and expensive/unachievable Net Zero ambitions?

I doubt if I will get an answer and certainly not a sensible one and I acknowledge that my letter is a bit ham-fisted, but it was sent out of frustration to the OBR. Still waiting for an answer from the OEUK..........

To OBR:

Dear Sir / Madame,

I have noticed some alarming figures and facts relating to the North Sea Oil and Gas industry in recent weeks that support my own concern about the future of the industry and its contribution to the UK economy and Exchequer.

As examples:

Jan - March '25 - a 20% increase in gas imports versus a 6.9% decrease in NS production;

Lower Oil Prices reducing the benefit of the punitive EPL Tax on NS producers;

Jobs losses from O&G companies and supply chain;

The transition of O&G companies to investing overseas instead of the UK, including Harbour Energy, the largest independent NS producer;

The massive reduction of NS O&G MCaps;

Waldorf and Prax, both with assets taxed by EPL going into administration, the latter with an unpaid £250m of tax owing to the HMRC;

The high energy prices in the UK, largely due to high electricity costs increased by renewable industry subsidies;

Increasing decommissioning costs for O&G falling to the UK Government;

All tax receipts from NS halving in one year to £4.5bn, with EPL falling from £4.2bn to £2.7bn.

Please could you email me a copy of the latest OBR forecasts for NS O&G revenues and taxes, production etc in the light of falling investment, EPL and production decline, plus the latest OBR forecast for the price of Brent over the next five years.

Please would you also confirm that costs the Government associated with the accelerated rate of O&G infrastructure decommissioning is also included in the OBR forecast, and at what point in time does the OBR see the consequences of EPL Tax crossing the line from being positive to net negative when considering decommissioning costs, lower Oil prices etc. In addition, does the OBR consider taxes paid by the 200,000 NS O&G workers within their forecasts?

Thank you in the hope that the OBR will answer my queries.

I forgot to say that I added this week in the hope of some sort of deal in the next couple of months and a reasonable update in just over two weeks. Whilst Brent has been relatively low, I am hoping that the figures will be reasonable on the basis that lease costs have been lower since April, Capital Costs in H2 were supposed to be lower, I believe a load just missed the last update and I assume that production will now be increasing through SE Asian activities and assuming operation efficiency has remained high. Interest costs should be lower this year and decommissioning activity may have also contributed to the results.

Stevo, your point about the OBR forecast is valid, perhaps we should be writing to the OBR and asking about their forecasts for NS O&G and whether or not they have factored in decommissioning and other costs associated with continuing EPL, plus the impact on GDP and balance of payments etc.

Jeffrey and Dumbly, thanks for posting an excellent article, which provides some important figures related to the decline in HMRC receipts and in particular EPL receipts. Sadly, I cannot wait to see the figures for '24-25 because the further production decline and lower Brent will probably halve the EPL receipt again. What we need are some figures on the rise in costs to the Government from decommissioning and then throw in the increase in O&G imports and effect on GDP, reduction in investment, increase in investment overseas, 100's of job losses ....... need I go on, perhaps best to keep it simple for the politicians.

What I do not understand - why is the industry not producing more factual data on the NS O&G decline and impact?

Just to remind you, I believe Jan-Mar gas imports increased by 20% whilst UK production decreased by 6.9%.

A few more disastrous and undeniable NS O&G figures and the Government will realise perhaps too late that tax receipts will be consumed by other tax losses, decommissioning, unemployment benefits etc etc. At this point, there will be a neutral impact on Rachel's abacus and hopefully she will finally grasp at NS O&G growth, my guess that will be in 2026 to some extent, maybe not enough though?

I am also disappointed there has been no decent deals to soak up the capital losses, however, I am delighted that AB has not made a rash move and bought an over priced asset or increased ENQ debt massively.

Given the current Liebir Government, punitive EPL, stubborn Waldorf Stakeholders hanging on int he hope of a better exit deal or high POO and Serica being a bit of a mess at the moment due to shutdowns, the further announcements that HBR, BP et all are exiting the NS......I am happy that AB has been patient and not rash, if EPL continues with low POO, there will be some bargains about and it will those companies with a strong balance sheet that remain in the NS that will massively benefit if EPL is cancelled or substantially modified in favour of the NS independents. It just needs Starmer and RAchel from accounts or was it the complaints department to wake and smell the manure Milipede is pedalling to seemingly enrich his mates.

It is a good news story and advertises ENQ's capabilities, however, more importantly, it was probably a high risk project that could have gone wrong. Presumably, ENQ were well paid for the job and the risk is now off the books. I would call that a success worth advertising, possibly also sends a message to the Government, no NS investment = plenty of NS decommissioning liability!

Frac, is John Wayne the new US Ambassador??? You can't get much plainer talk'in than that!

In the meantime, Norway has doubled down on investment in NS frontier areas to avoid production declines in the 2030's and to be a long term supplier to Europe.

I am beginning to think that Starmer and Reeves are thicker than I thought or that the photos that Millipede is using to keep them quiet are better than I thought! Something has to give on EPL, its getting embarrassing for the Government as there is no rational defence as far as EPL is concerned, it is Government theft without any thought as to the consequences and to be fair Hunt and Sunak are the real guilty parties here, labour just doubled down on a bad idea without due diligence and through necessity, having no imagination, ideas or strategy and parking themselves in a fiscal corner.

Pressure is building, the budget is coming and will it bring minor amendments to EPL, but my money remains 2026 before the EPL reality dawns and something is done.

25 days to ENQ update.

Tigar, I admire your optimism and like you I am convinced ENQ will make it to 60p with or without EPL and like you I would like to at least order a new car, but it is a matter of timescale; it needs to be before I loose my licence to old age, otherwise it will have to go up further so I can afford a chauffeur!

I don't see 60p before late 2026 and that will largely depend on a revision of EPL and a high POO. However, continued positive results and strengthening of the balance sheet, some deals or a takeover, dividends and buybacks should hopefully send the sp in the right direction. I am sure 21.5p or MCap £400m should be on the cards by end of Q1 2026 is my current prediction, does not look like much but it equates to a 66% rise followed by a 5% dividend Q2.

Tigar, do you have a timescale in mind? Anyone else feel free to comment.

In a fit of frustration, I have written to David Whitehouse at OEUK:

To: David Whitehouse, It is becoming increasingly apparent that EPL is destroying the NS O&G industry and its supply chain and NZ ambitions are financially ruinous for the UK. I see that gas imports rose by 20% in the first three months of this year whilst production fell by 6.9%. As examples, I see that HBR were taxed at an effective 111% in their last period and have made it very plain they are exiting the UK having already shed jobs, ENQ is expanding overseas, now struggling to pay down debt thanks to EPL, which is also largely responsible for a 2/3rd drop in MCap, Waldorf and PRAX are in administration to which EPL contributed. Surely you have enough statistics to be lobbying the Government with from reducing EPL receipts (apparently still awaiting publication), increased decommissioning costs, falling investment, lost jobs versus the cost of heavily subsidised Wind energy jobs. The OEUK should be pushing out hard facts now to support the removal of EPL on a weekly basis to provide messages and soundbites for your members to lobby anyone who will listen. Send Reeves a letter with some key impact figures associated with EPL's impact, make it public and send it to the broadcasters as a crib sheet to pin down Government Ministers. These are becoming increasingly desperate times and if the Government wants growth, the NS O&G is one area they can be switch on like a "light switch" with a simple change in policy.

May I suggest we all do the same: OEUK 44 (0)207 802 2400

info@oeuk.org.uk

Interesting that HBR have a new buyback scheme on top of a dividend, and the news has helped their share price along with positive production figures. Personally, I think ENQ should do both a dividend and buybacks, especially when the sp is depressed by EPL.

Interesting that HBR is making it even clearer that they are exiting the NS and frankly I would relist in New York.

So we have companies actively exiting the NS, profitable companies being taxed at 111%, investment going overseas, job losses, loss of momentum in the industry and supply chain, decommissioning costs accelerating whilst overall production falls, gas imports over last period up 20%, tax receipts falling and unrealised, a government policy that increases green house gases and reliance on other countries, an energy policy in a mess and Milliband and his cronies bankrupting the nation whilst seemingly lining their pockets on taxpayer subsidies, consultancies and handouts.

WHEN IS STARMER GOING TO WAKE UP AND TAKE ACTION - this is one thing that the Government could so easily fix...........Hunt, Sunak, STarmer, Reeves and Milliband will go down in history for destroying the Golden Goose.

No I don't think that is correct...........

2024 Net Profit $393.3m, Profit after Tax $93.8m, Net cash flow $508.5m.

As we have losses against 40% corporation tax, it looks like ENQ is paying tax at a rate of 77% in 2024. Can anyone explain, unless the 2024 account includes additional EPL owed. EPL is so wrong, I am still surprised that no one has really challenged this in the courts, it amounts to State theft and discrimination based incorrect assumptions and facts.

I find it hard to believe that ENQ is now down below the sp of exactly a year ago!!! Whilst I appreciate Brent is down $12 which must be in large part to blame, if you exclude EPL, ENQ has generally performed well, paid a dividend and made deals that will add considerable production (35,000boepd) within five years.

The next set of results just four weeks away should be better as costs should be down on H2, overall production should be up slightly hopefully, the timing of uplifts might help, lease costs are significantly down post April but in H1 ENQ will paid the equivalent of 4p+ per share in EPL will be a dampener ($100m in June).

I think the next set of results will be really important for sp progress to avoid further flatlining for another year.

Oct23, thanks for posting the link, interesting....

The shut down clearly caused them an issue but there debt/cash position looks heathy. I suspect the shut down was one of the reasons discussions with ENQ proved difficult. Can anyone with better analytical skills read anything across to ENQ half year results which are just a month away?

Oct23, thanks for posting the link, interesting....

The shut down clearly caused them an issue but there debt/cash position looks heathy. I suspect the shut down was one of the reasons discussions with ENQ proved difficult. Can anyone with better analytical skills read anything across to ENQ half year results which are just a month away?

On this BB we all chuntered on about the punitive EPL, trade associations eventually spoke up and increasingly the NS O&G industry is telling it how it is with respect to EPL and getting on with investing overseas or in some cases just going into administration, the media has finally caught up, Reform has clearly taken the side of NS O&G and shadow politicians and some with relevant constituencies are speaking out, Trump has told Starmer straight and the rest of the World laughs at us as they water down net zero, the chinese can't believe their luck with Milliband being their chief cheer leader. Funding for net zero protest groups is drying up and renewable companies are pulling out or going bust in significant numbers. Milliband's promise of cheaper retail energy has left him whistling in the wind and UK manufacturing falling on its knees and retailers not far behind. Those with wealth are leaving in droves or shifting assets and investment out of the UK. If I were Shell, BP or even ENQ, I would consider listing in the US instead of the UK, perhaps the whole industry should float the idea of a mass exodus to Starmer?

The message is getting through to the Government as Starmer, Reeves, Milliband and the rest of the ill qualified leaders are now be questioned about EPL and the future of the NS. Pressure is growing, Scottish elections are looming, Reform is establishing clear water with Labour on NS O&G policy and Government statistics are making the defence of EPL questionable.

I think the pressure is now sufficient along with the desperate need for growth, that change would normally happen at this point accept for one thing - financially the Government is cornered, simply put, giving up EPL in this Government's term worsens their financial forecast.

So what needs to happen? Significant jobs losses and companies going into administration (oh - that is already happening) along with more statically and undeniable evidence is required, the result will be that EPL will be changed before 2030 to win votes, POO will play a factor as will dwindling HMRC EPL receipts which will become much more dramatic when decommissioning is taken into account.

I wonder what will happen to any assets that administrators cannot off-load due to decommissioning coasts - will the Government be responsible for 100%?

It is all rather depressing, I went to buy a can of baked beans clearly recalling they were 22p five years ago, 75p a couple of years ago, but 1.56p was a bit of a shock, but then the last budget was a shock and surely contributed to the rise, heaven knows what mayhem the next budget will cause!

Ron, If I could I would have given you a double recommend for your last post!

Note: The link does not appear to work.

Potentially just 32 days to half year reporting - should be interesting and a reasonable chance something will happen with the sale of Prax and Waldorf assets, I bet the administrators of both these companies are praying regularly for a change to EPL!?

Thanks Heavy - Is this Milliband acknowledging his strategy is not working or well thought through, hence nuclear and now new gas fired stations to plug the intermittent gap.

Does this mean that we will shortly have another U-turn? Will "home grown" (I hate this term) gas and oil be brought back from the brink of extinction to help the economy grow and EPL is about to morph into something that will allow investment and reasonable returns in the high risk NS O&G industry?

Has anyone else noticed that Milliband is morphing as well - into a caricature of himself!

Disappointed in the end point for ENQ's sp, although I manage to add some in a couple of trades, I thought we would have seen the other side and held 14p. It appears that ENQ deal news is required to properly take us beyond 14p and onwards.