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We know that ENQ's trajectory is in pretty good shape going forward.

We cannot fathom POO, but we can expect $80 Brent range for the remainder of this year(?).

Starmer has gone, Reeves will follow in September and Milliband is increasingly toxic and given all potential PM candidates are now pro NS O&G, I think we can safely say he will not be energy Minister or Chancellor unless Burnham is really thick, that is mentally or personally with Milliband. There again Westminster does not like overtly ambitious PM wannabes, September is a long way off and therefore I certainly would not bet 100% on Burnham.

All this said, I think that NS O&G will see some policy changes and a more favourable sentiment and environment, the question is whether the politicians understand NS O&G and economics in sufficient depth to make the changes necessary - we all saw what Hunty did after the initial outcry over EPL, yes he made changes on paper that were in practice little more than an insult to our intelligence and the industry.

In conclusion, perhaps we will see NS O&G / EPL changes in September(?).

Krak, it is all about message and balance, but I also want to see juicy FCF's and debt reduction which will ultimately translate into sp.

I have been a strong advocate for Dividends and Buybacks.

We have an EGM coming up and buybacks and indeed a special dividend could be added to the agenda. Adding buybacks to the mix would be a very clear signal to the market place and would help the sp, tighten share liquidity and probably accelerate our entry to the FTSE 250.

COBAS - today's RNS is good news, as Cobas has done a U-Turn and now increased their holding again. Perhaps after the Tory win in Aberdeen we might see a U-Turn by Milliband or a firing.

Starmer, Reeves, Milliband and Cooper must all be feeling their collars this morning! It will be interesting to see how sweaty they look on camera over the next few days and weeks...............

Note this was in response to an AI supported question and may not be accurate.

Since Modestus's post stating a holding of 10m shares, I have been wondering about overall shareholdings and the scale of holdings represented on this BB, although it would not be appropriate to ask about the latter. So, I asked a question and received the following answer, what surprised me was the very small retail percentage and given Modestus has over 0.5%, it does not seem much. I can only suppose other retail shares are held by third parties and not direct retail investors(?). I then thought that given how illiquid ENQ shares must be, why is it ENQ is so undervalued and why for example has ENQ fallen so far this week given the new deal? It cannot just be the Cobas sell off, if it is, then I would expect a steady rise once they have finished selling.

EnQuest PLC (LSE: ENQ) has approximately 1.87 billion shares outstanding. While an exact "average size" per individual shareholder isn't publicly published, institutional investors and insiders heavily dominate the company, holding around 76.27% to 80% of the total shares.The breakdown of ownership highlights that large funds and major stakeholders command massive blocks, heavily skewing the average shareholding much higher than what typical retail investors hold:Insiders & Directors: ~ 2% to 2.15% of shares. (The CEO, Amjad Bseisu, is the largest single shareholder with a 12.59% stake, equating to ~ 234.7 million shares).Institutional Investors: ~ 75% to 79% of total shares, held by around 55 to 60 institutions. Major funds like Aberforth Partners LLP and Cobas Asset Management hold double-digit percentages.Retail / General Public: Only about 4.6% to 5.3% of the shares outstanding.

I cannot fathom the current POO and have decided that despite the recent rises in ENQ sp, this presents itself as a buying opportunity.

There is the Aberdeen South election as well as the Burnham debacle (Starmer and his moronic MPs may be crap but the country did vote for Burnham), the resultant race for PM and or fall out from a poor Labour showing could have interesting consequences. But it may be a diabolical showing in the Aberdeen election which might just kick Starmer and Reeves into action over O&G/EPL policies in an attempt to save their skins in a PM election scrummage and lean economic times ahead. The only problem is Reeves will have to give up EPL tax revenues in the short term for longer term gain and that may be all to difficult in the current environment, although some double accounting on defence may help!?!

If Brent stays at the current price, the ENQ share price is good to go, but I am betting on slightly higher prices over the next 12 months with spikes as the Middle East situation falters and founders and countries scramble to build reserves through the driving season and going into Winter. Logistics alone whether related to bring oil fields coming back on line or transporting it around the World, together with Russian sanctions and attacks on their petroleum assets will likely keep prices above $80.

I wonder if this is Starmer taking baby steps with Milliband i.e. this is what Milliband was prepared to give up without actually resigning?

If Starmer can read the room on the plight of car manufacturers, then perhaps moves on licences and EPL are the next step with or without Milliband resigning - I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens on Thursday............

Ship carrying Russian Crude boarded overnight and the promises of more boarding by the UK and allies is likely to put a very small amount of bullish pressure on POO but more importantly an agreement with Iran is critical and if I were the Iranians I would delay, partly to show who is calling the shots and with the US over a barrel, again I would delay to squeeze further concessions.

Anyone notice how slowly Trump descended the aircraft steps the other day? He is 80 and does need to be careful but at the same time for security reasons, he should be down those steps and in the Beast tout suite. Not getting his way for several months must be a bit stressful for Trumpy.

It will be an interesting week for the ENQ sp..........will we see further broker upgrades and $90+ oil which might just get us over 30p?

ENQ exceeds £500m MCap and should now qualify for the FTSE250, I believe ENQ meets all the entry criteria, it is just a question as to whether we have missed the June assessment and or will have to wait until the September assessment.

So hopefully, FTSE 250 news in the pipeline as well as further updates, along with a possible NS deal before the year end.

Nice rise today and bought more on the retrace this morning, which are now nicely in profit.

It was interesting watching the body language today - positive.

I have been watching the average broker prices over the last couple of weeks as have acquired a few more shares and the average has moved up, it will be interesting to see the effect of today's news as it filters through.

Shore Capital still thinks the ENQ share price has legs as they have already upped their ENQ target price to 39p - perhaps this is the start or a number of broker upgrades and rerating of the company?

It has been a good day!

Great ENQ news and presentation today with positive future outlined, including the prospect of leveraging and using the mountain of ENQ tax losses.

ENQ is the FTSE's highest riser today by a long shot and the current sp and MCap would put ENQ firmly in the FTSE 250, all good exposure for the company.

Given the level buying following the news, I assume share liquidity will be tightening thanks to the long term investors AB and institutions (up to 55-60%) and some chunky long term retail investors.

There are few shares with such a positive future, those that I have invested have typically been take-over, let us hope we see a higher sp before such an outcome materialises. Personally holding for sp growth and shareholder returns.

It is not just jobs, in my area the number of houses for sale went from 8, then came the council tax changes and it went to 48 and a combination of all the recent Government policies has taken it to 72 and some of the asking prices have dropped by 40%. The recovery of the ENQ sp over the last year has been welcome, but the prospects of ENQ's future sp is currently my only hope on the horizon.

The easiest and quickest win for the Government is to moderate the subsidised rush to net zero and deal with EPL which is crushing the life out of the O&G industry and business confidence.

Can anyone provide an estimate of ENQ's 2026 average daily production and I don't mean the company's current forecast of 41.5-45bpd?

We know the production levels in January and February (33,800) and the company indicated 50,000bpd at the end of the Q1 once the outage was resolved and the company retained its forecast, so we might expect up to 44,000bpd as an average as no other outages have been advised.

We know ENQ management is conservative and cautious, so they may not and need not revise the forecast unless something materially changes such as a deal or indeed further outages.

If we take 44,000bpd for H1 and we know that the Seligi field is producing at 100m instead of the contracted 70m, we might assume that ENQ is now pumping at around 53,500bpd, if this is the case, we might assume that the average for 2026 might be as high as 48,750bpd. Even at 50,000bpd that would still be a 47,000bpd output.

If this were the case, it would have a significant impact on revenues and FCF's, plus the sp.

Any thoughts?

I think that we are all agreed that ENQ is succeeding far better than expected compared with prior to the Iran crisis. That said, it appears that the only broker recommendation recently has been by JP Morgan with an increase from 25p to 29p. Currently, if you google the average target price for ENQ, it is 30p, but that is surely based on older targets published by the brokers. So, given the extended higher prices of oil and now the foreseeably higher average prices in the near to medium term - we should reasonably expect an avalanche of upgraded broker targets? This will under score how undervalued ENQ is in the market place.

I have accumulated a few more ENQ shares over the last week, simply on the basis that ENQ is increasingly under valued, increased FCF's will further de-risk the balance sheet, EPL changes(?), the FTSE250 is beckoning which will enhance ENQ's profile and despite demand destruction, oil prices are going to remain high for some time, if ENQ does not hit 30p by the end of the year I will be seriously disappointed, if it hits 40p by the time the full year results are announced, I would not be surprised.

The other factor at play will be ENQ's production forecast for 2027, I presume that it will increase with SEA activity and in-fill wells(?).

It appears that JPM is in line with most of us on this board with a revised target of 29p, which is in the range I personally believe we will see by the end of the year, purely based on debt reduction and the foreseeable price of oil.

However, a good deal and or changes to EPL would surely see a re-rating to 40p+ in the same time frame.

Thank you Stevo and ukbbbbbb, I had forgotten about Tarmaks excellent spread sheet.

Stevo, perfectly reasonable assumptions, I think a little conservative - we'll have to see who is right at the year end all things being equal, but all things being equal is highly unlikely, the price of oil will be a key factor amongst many others.

Thank you for your help guys.

Hi Stevo, apologies, I used net profit as it was a figure I could work from 2024 results, I would have looked at FCF's but could not find a suitable figure. If you could shed some light on a forecast for 2026 FCF, I would be most grateful.

What I am really interested in is a forecast for net debt at the end of 2026, Brent has averaged on paper between $92.5 and $95 so far this year and last months forecast for the average Brent throughout 2026 has jumped to an average of $90. A further reduction in net debt will de-risk the company further and hopefully result in a corresponding if not better rise in sp/MCap by the year end, this in turn should launch ENQ into the FTSE250 which should also improve sentiment and exposure for the company, irrespective of potential deals, EPL changes etc.

I would be interested in anyone's profit projections for 2026?

I have made a few rough calculations based on 2024 when Brent averaged $80.5 and production was at 40,000bpd, I think fairly conservatively, given Brent has averaged about $93.75 this year so far and production is higher, I figure £150-200m net profit. Any counter offers??? Equivalent to 8-10.5p a share

Earlier in the year after the third party shutdown was resolved, ENQ maintained its production forecast but also stated ENQ was pumping at 50,000 barrels a day. Now with the higher oil prices since then and I am guessing AB has instructed all efforts for maximum production - if 50,000 is maintained, it could have a huge impact on revenues and FCF, perhaps an additional $15m a month revenue. As a lot of costs will have already been covered, after EPL, a decent wedge will be FCF. The half year results compared to the Q1 reality could be surprisingly good. A deal, merger or even a takeover at let say 50% premium would value ENQ at under £600m with the best part of $2bn revenue at today's prices and $3bn of losses. The only losers in this scenario are the long term ENQ holders who expected a 40p, 50p or 60p party! The winner would be the acquiring company who would probably effectively pay off the £600m in a year or two if prices stay high.

Three things I took away from the presentation:

Firstly the level of debt reduction and comment that the the remaining debt would be paid off within the full financial year. Given the similar production levels to ENQ, surely this gives a good indication as the level of debt ENQ might pay off which by my estimates could be worth 10p a share.

Secondly, comments about FTSE 250, the same would apply to ENQ should they get into FTSE250 and would help the sp etc.

Thirdly, positive comments about changes to EPL, the question is when will the Government wake up and small the coffee?

Current ENQ MCap is £370, if only ENQ sp could sustain 21p for the next couple of weeks, ENQ would probably make it into the FTSE 250......

If the pundits are right and Brent is going to rise in the coming months, then 21p should certainly be within ENQ's grasp.