Member Info for AIMOilking

Milliband and evidence mounting against Millibands policies............

"The Prosperity Institute report, titled ‘It’s Broke, Fix It: Where British Energy Policy Went Wrong and How to Get it Right’, calls to “abolish and replace” DESNZ, warning it has allowed energy policy to be “totally captured by vested interests”.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/report-calls-net-zero-ministry-080000550.html

When logic and common sense are ignored, in business there are usually one of three causes - INCOMPETENCE or CORRUPTION and occasionally SMALL MINDED SELF-INTEREST. However in the case of Milliband I would add three further causes - DELUSION - AMBITION - ZEALOTRY. In the case of Milliband, he is a bit of a polymorph and it is possible that one and all may well apply. There is clearly evidence in his actions and in the public domain that points to all of them and what word might be used to represent his hold over Starmer and perhaps another for his hold over the Labour masses? I view Milliband as a dangerous interactor and as much as I want to see the back of Starmer and Reeves, I fear the unintended consequences as Milliband and some of the other Labour flotsam take up high office.

Disappointed in ENQ performance over the last 24 hours hope we see a bounce back to the 12.5p zone later today, now less to a month to the next operational update.

Does this mean that Shell's assets are back on the table for ENQ...........?

A major North Sea oil and gas deal between Shell, Exxon Mobil and Viaro Energy has been called off.

Shell said the $500million deal, covering assets producing around 5% of UK gas output, was abandoned because conditions required to complete the transaction “were not met”. Viaro said the decision to walk-away was "mutually agreed"

The sale, agreed in July 2024, included 11 gasfields, an exploration project and the Bacton terminal in Norfolk, described by Shell as a site of “strategic national importance”.

Shell will continue to operate the portfolio, one of the largest and longest-producing in the North Sea.

The cancellation follows scrutiny by the North Sea Transition Authority, which said approval was delayed while it was “waiting to receive the additional information requested from the purchasing party in order to make a decision”.

Viaro is already licensed to operate in the North Sea and produces about 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day as well as working interests in approximately 60 North Sea fields. It has been the most prolific buyer of UK oil and gas assets over the past five years.

A spokesman for Francesco Mazzagatti, chief executive of Viaro, told The Times that the Shell deal had been scrapped despite being “fully-funded”.

He said: “The parties have worked hard and in close alignment to try and complete this transaction over many months, but despite this being a fully-funded opportunity, the completion conditions were not met as commercial and market conditions evolved and we mutually agreed not to proceed."

A Shell spokesman said “completion conditions were not met as commercial and market conditions evolved”.

Oil needs to rise to cover some of the right offs:

"This week, BP announced it would take a $4–$5 billion hit to its Q4 earnings from winding down its energy transition business. The announcement followed a similar one from Ford, which said in December it would incur $19.5 billion in losses due to a substantial curtailment of its EV plans. These two are far from the only ones losing money on what was, a few years ago, considered a sure-return investment. And that’s bad news for net-zero plans."

Apart from a couple of contradictory Scottish polls, the O&G industry seems awfully quiet on the subject of EPL, which seems odd given that the weight of evidence is clearly available and should be getting heavy enough to quash any delusionary NZ waffle and denial.

However, the lack of "EPL noise" leads me to think that current Liebore dogmer on O&G/NZ policies will mean there will be no change until both Ed and starmer are history.

As an aside, I was just thinking how we will be plagued in eternity by a phalanx of ex PM's with there armour of gold plated pensions at future state events, there won't be much room for anyone else. I wonder if they will all have the brass neck to turn up - they will of course to promote their podcasts and "relevance" for renewing their consultancies or book promotions.........

As previously mentioned, I think there is an eight week window for the Government to make some changes to EPL prior to the Scottish elections, even if those changes are post dated to 2027.

A slight fly in the ointment maybe the Greens cosying up to Labour to ward off a future Reform Government, as the Green's could well make any alliance depended on certain spending, NZ policies and penalisation of the O&G industry. There may also be two other windows for EPL changes, if Starmer resigns, we may get a more pragmatic leader and the third window will be prior to an General Election.

I have added again in the hope that either EPL will be changed and and or POO will rise through 2026.

So Labour if you are listening and have a nano particle of common sense, please do an EPL U Turn a.s.a.p.

In the meantime, the February Update will hopefully be illuminating, on the 12th last time, so potentially a month away.

Just a note, although AB said 18 months ago, a deal would be done in six months, the Chairman did say 18 months......

The media is finally cottoning onto the fact that EPL is causing the death of the North Sea O&G Industry, which does put pressure on EPL, however, it also dampens sentiment towards O&G as well.

Just 16 weeks to the Scottish elections, less if you consider postal voting and even less time for a EPL U Turn to have any impact on the elections. However, starmer's lack of understanding, rabbit in the headlights ability to manoeuvre and is he actually bothered does not help!?

So, starmer's window of opportunity to do anything about EPL is between now and reevsey's Spring Review on 3rd March, just eight weeks.

My English may be poor, but if you are wondering, I have deliberately dropped the capitals from their names, I don't think they warrant the respect of having a capital letter!

Happiness, health and success to all.

A little uncertain as to what 2026 will bring but at the top of my wish list is a decent ENQ sp, how that is achieved, I am not too fussed but the prospects are potentially exciting whether it is merger, acquisition or take-over, higher production or discovery or higher dividend and buybacks or all of the above.

However the big questions are what will POO be and will the Scottish Elections force the Government to take action on EPL?

My predictions are:

Starmer and Reeves will go in May after Labour gets a drubbing in the elections, with 16 weeks to go it is too late to change leadership horses.

Milliband won't get the top job but will be moved from energy to more senior roll, which will allow NZ targets to be relaxed.

Rayner will unfortunately come back into the fold, could even be leader in preference to other options. Burnham won't be elected an MP in time for the contest. I suspect the new leader will come from left of the spectrum, probably a female - unexpected winner. Streeting wants it but labour parliamentarians don't like naked ambition.

EPL changes will be announced once it becomes apparent that the NS tax take has vanished but implementation of the changes will take place in 2027 to squeeze the last drop out of EPL, although the changes may only effect oil production.

Inflation will remain around 3%, bank rates will drop slower than expected but only to prop up ailing economy, manufacturing will fall, energy prices will rise and both welfare cost and jobless numbers will continue to increase. Small boat crossings will remain at the same level and net migration of 20-45 year olds will increase as will the number of wealthy individuals leaving the UK. House building targets will be completely missed which will help house prices maintain current level with slightly lower interest rates helping, along with bank of Mum and Dad helping kids getting onto the market, however I think the overall prices will be level for 2026, unless there is a financial crisis.

A financial crisis is a possibility as debt balloons.

Ukraine war will continue and the whole global situation will become more tense with the US, Russia and China flexing their muscles economically, by proxy wars and espionage. The Middle East will implode to some degree.

Trump will become more irrational and unpredictable as a result of cognitive decline whilst his popularity falls with ordinary citizens feeling the pinch and the Epstein sleaze unravelling. We could even see Vance as President before the end of 2026, the chances are quite high for various reasons.

On the other hand, everyone could suffer a bout of common sense, realise the Earth is small, resources are finite and we all need to get on with our lives with a little more humanity and focus on the future.

This sums it up really:

"A spokesman for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said it was committed to renewables and a move away from fossil fuels. They said: “Issuing new licences to explore new fields will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis.”

The Government finally partially reversed its position For Farmers, but we are running out of time with just 18 weeks before the elections for any changes to EPL. Given the NZ zealots are in charge of energy, I am starting to loose my optimism that changes would be forthcoming.

What I would like to see are revised estimates of the revenue stream that EPL and Corporation tax etc. will generate given the low price of Brent, the M&A activity and the reduced investment in the NS, if they were heading towards £300m in 2030, my guess is that the forecast will have already reached zero with decommissioning charges thrown in? It makes you wonder if EPL is a viable tax or has morphed in to a tool to close the NS? And yet, we will continue to import oil!

BT - The thought of Hunty coming back spoiled my breakfast, I have met him many times and he does not impress and that is me being polite!

If I were Linda Cook, I would be looking at a US listing, apart for tax reasons and MCAP appreciation, the satisfaction of kicking the Liebore Government in the slats would be worth it.

ENQ's MCap is frustrating, especially when you consider the exceeded production forecast for 2025, and advanced production coming on line in early 2026. In addition, AB/ENQ tends to hit targets and an additional 35,000bpd by the end of the decade from Asia is equivalent to the current daily production HBR has just purchased.

The questions are will HBR sell UK assets to ENQ or will someone buy ENQ? The speed of M&A activity has certainly intensified recently.

Personally, in the NS, I would go for low cost/low risk infill organic growth and access to reserves and decommissioning business, basically sweat the assets already in the ENQ portfolio. The reason being is that the current UK NS policy is punitive, the licencing and environmental NZ regulations are restrictive and all are subject to constant tinkering by Governments that simply cannot fathom the implications of their ruinous decisions.

I would be worried about taking on NS assets from failing companies in case associated ageing infrastructure had not been properly maintained, the exception would be assets already well understood by ENQ that fall into our lap at a fire sale price.

I would then expand the ENQ business across South East Asia whilst taking any opportunity to sell off surplus assets (NS) to reduce debt and pay for other projects.

I would then look at the most sensible stock market to list the company and access capital as required.

If I make any return on ENQ, I would consider emigrating to avoid an increasingly heavy tax burden in the UK and a failing State that simply cannot sustain some of its spending and policies. This is a grim reality for me to express but some times you have to be pragmatic.

Given the scale of the newly merged NS players, I fear that ENQ does not currently have the scale to compete in the NS, but ENQ does have assets, reserves, tax losses, plus management skills and human resources, which when combined with a ludicrously low MCap make it ripe for being swallowed up in the current EPL environment.

I accept a reverse takeover remains an increasingly small outside possibility.

AB - the question is what is his personal exit strategy? I am sure he had ambitions and still does to grow the company, but it would appear those plans have been thoughted. I am sure AB's holding is firmly in the red, so he will want to see a return on his effort. It would appear that EPL is here to stay at least until the end of the parliament. So would AB be tempted to cash out via a takeover or take a stake in a larger company perhaps with a Chairmanship or Non-exec role? I was interested to note that this week's broker's target price was 23p, would that be enough to tempt AB? Personally, having had a mid twenties breakeven in 2021 when I started investing in ENQ which I have brought down to the mid teens, I would walk away tomorrow at 23p if it were offered, simply to move onto other things and away from an industry crippled by EPL - to enjoy retirement!

I was reassured by the recent update, it was what I expected although the lack of a debt update was disappointing, but I suspect the end December figures will make better reading than those from November. I now accept that I am now hunkered down for the Winter, waiting for the February update and hopefully confirmation that a dividend will be paid in 2026.

I also continue to hold in the hope that some morning I will wake up to a re-rating of the ENQ sp.

Brent below $59 as I write which made me wonder what the OBR's forecast for EPL receipts would if they revised their figures now, my guess is that Rachel's head room will have shrunk and Labour are closer to killing an industry for little appreciable benefit.

I also noted that the top 8 shareholders in ENQ have now exceeded 50% of the company collectively.

I am afraid that I have some way to go to make it into the top eight, but I did buy a small chunk of ENQ shares today for the following reasons:

Whilst the headline figures for ENQ might not look too good in the update, I still believe the update will include some encouraging nuggets;

Some deal may still be in the offing and if not perhaps ENQ will be taken over at some premium over the current price;

Hopefully Brent is close to the bottom of he curve;

and the Scottish Elections maybe the catalyst for some relief from EPL.

Last year, on the 17th, ENQ announced the expansion of a gas field, this Thursday, is the last sensible day to announce good news this side of the New Year.

Clearly, IR were trying to release the update last week, which was already relatively late compared to all previous years, this suggests there is a deal in the offing and if it had been Waldorf, I assume that we would have already seen the update as there would be no reason to delay.

I believe ENQ will have delayed originally to get some better H2 production figures into the update.

God help us! Starmer is even more moronic than I gave him credit for..............our only short term hope is the Scottish elections and Labour decide they need votes, in which case I agree, changes could happen quickly, I just worry it will actually be another slight of hand for PR purposes.

Ground Hog Day was a good title for this thread but the trouble is that each day I wake up and the sp has not reset to 36p!

If Waldorf was the big deal and there are no others in the offing, the update will be out, therefore might we see some director buys this week?

So looking forward to the update answering some of the questions we have all be raising. FCF's might be thin but I am expecting a small upgrade or at least top end of production estimates as some good news, plus average price per barrel being higher than the current price thanks to hedging. However, its ENQ's ability to pay a decent dividend which will be my focus being a long term holder.

Muted response on HBR BB to deal and so far a relatively small increase in sp, perhaps they get up later in HBR land?

It looks like HBR will be paying less tax to Rachel following the acquisition of Waldorf, if Rachel has not already neutered the OBR, perhaps they could get together with someone in HMRC accounts to work out a new and diminished EPL tax receipt forecast, it will help Rachel plan her next round of tax rises.

The target on ENQ's back must have increased in size with the combination of ENQ's tax losses, production and low MCap.

The question is at what price would ENQ be taken out?

Any thoughts?

I am guessing the deal simply became too rich for ENQ with cash, creditors and decommissioning liabilities. I am also guessing that HBR could immediately use their tax losses which made it more valuable to them as EPL continues and may be they have a better understanding of the time line on future changes and have lower costs per barrel due to scale. The combination of the "total cost" of the acquisition and low Brent would have put ENQ's balance sheet and development of ASEAN opportunities under financial stress. I am guessing the early and enlarged refinancing was a last ditch attempt to see off the competition but given that ENQ was up against HBR, ENQ was never going to win if HBR decided they wanted Waldorf - the winners here are the Waldorf creditors simply because there was obviously stiff competition for their assets.

The upside as already stated, development of Kraken should go ahead which should have relatively low risked upside and the balance sheet is in good shape to weather EPL, low Brent and the cost of organic growth. Who knows, there may be side deals to be done with ENQ on assets various and decommissioning.

HBR must have also been smarting from going from biggest independent to shall we say a smaller player after the recent NS mergers, even given their strategy of exiting the NS.

Finally, the target on ENQ's back must have also got a little bigger as the larger consolidated companies eye up ENQ's tax losses and assets.

Overall, disappointing and explains the late update, an ENQ acquisition would have provided a good smoke screen should the ENQ's update be poor, I am guessing we might soon find out later today or tomorrow, but ENQ lives to fight another day and is well positioned to do so.

We are back in this cycle of speculation about the sub $60 oil price and associated glut.

Trump seems to be driving the price down, probably so the US can fill its reserves and pressure other sovereign nations into making deals. Who knows?

Still no figures from ENQ, which continues to be frustrating, but when they arrive I shall be studying them closely to determine ENQ survivability in this double whammy environment of low POO and high taxes (EPL). At this sage, I am not worried as ENQ has new and lower cost production coming on stream from ASEAN mainly gas assets and has sufficient liquidity to manage through this rough water. I am even ready to buy more shares if the price falls to the recent 8p target which I think is unlikely but I have been wrong before.

The question that now vexes me is: What will it take for the UK to change their EPL policy? The tax take is lower than expected and falling rapidly and businesses with NS assets are going into administration with unpaid taxes and decommissioning liabilities. Clearly, the Government will not bail out the NS O&G industry or will it have to with EPL in place and if no one is prepared to pick up the liabilities. If you have an oil price and asset that cannot make a profit whilst weighed down with liabilities of all sorts, along with a negative value - what will the Government do? The big deals that have been done would appear to be mainly mergers, no one has the appetite to take on debt. So in a sub $60 market , how much are assets actually worth? I think that ENQ's current MCap and 8p target price might hold the answer!

Can someone please wake up Starmer and Reeves, so that they can fire Milliband and address some of the important issues that will actually generate growth such as abolishing EPL, reducing renewable subsidies, review NZ targets and open up O&G licences.