Member Info for AIMOilking

We are running into the ENQ half year results, just six days to go. Over the last week, I have noticed that trading volume and latterly sp are slightly trending upwards, as I expected leading into the results. Hopeful that will continue and this will be an interesting few days.

In the hope that it would be soon, I tried to find out when the new Price Mechanism would be announced, apparently the consultation just stated "in due course"! The only thing I could find was an AI response suggesting by the end of 2026. "The government does not have a set public report date for the new oil and gas price mechanism; however, they concluded a consultation on it in May 2025, with a final decision on the design expected "in due course". The government intends to introduce the necessary legislation for the new mechanism by the end of 2026, replacing the current Energy Profits Levy (EPL). The consultation sought feedback on policy objectives and design options for a permanent mechanism to respond to future oil and gas price shocks."

Does anyone have a better idea of what is happening? What are the conclusions and actions? When will hear something? Who can we contact to find out what is going on? Finally, is there any chance the Government will act and bring forward an EPL policy change to save the NS O&G industry?

I did ask IR about an interim dividend and at the time there was no indication that an interim would be paid, only a full year.

It is possible that the BoD might surprise us but I doubt it.

Personally, I think ENQ should pay an interim dividend and or reinstate a small buyback programme whilst the shares are so low. Both of these provide returns to shareholders and maintain a level of interest with both income, reduced liquidity which might help when upside finally arrives and market presence with RNS's etc. The sums involved are relatively small and as long as debt is also still reducing, it would seem to make sense.

Just a week to go to the results and update, which I am sure will show progress on all fronts - a further Divi would be nice but don't hold your breath. A 5% divi would only cost the company £10m, but it would create a lot of happy investors!

Good video and I keep saying , when is someone going to do the Maths????

It is no good looking at figures in isolation, the Government needs to look at the whole picture and not just at a point in time but going forward. The Government implemented EPL and looked at the immediate amount of tax revenue it would generate, what they did not look at properly was the resultant accelerated decline in overall tax revenues, investment, production, job losses, supply chain etc. They did look at the impact if implementing EPL on O&G companies, long term business plans, commitments, banking covenants and investment strategies etc.

Someone needs to do the Maths, work out an affordable strategy that will guarantee the delivery of energy at a reasonable price otherwise the economy will fail and living standards will fall. There is no question in my mind that NS O&G has to be part of any viable energy transition.

Nuclear has to underpin base load energy demand, gas has to be part of the mix until new technologies can justify their stand alone business cases and subsidies need to be curtailed for wind and solar energy. The latter comment may be controversial, but today wind and solar business cases and environmental impact do not stand scrutiny, and the subsidies will only continue because new turbines and solar farms will have to be built to replace the ageing turbines which are lasting just 12-17 years and not 20+ years as expected. In addition, it does not matter how many turbines and solar farms you build, if the wind and sun don't appear "Houston we have a problem"!!!!! In the case of Apollo 13, they did the Maths and made it home, UK energy supply is probably close to the point (catastrophic leak) or just past the point when Apollo 13's oxygen tank exploded, the calculations to make it safely home were made and this is what our Government should have been doing to determine the right energy strategy going forward. At the moment, Norway, France and US gas powering our ageing gas turbines are providing a life line, if we get to the point where the lights go out, people will literally die and the economy will be damaged irretrievably.

Milliband needs to be sacked immediately and someone with knowledge and a grasp of reality needs to lead the UK energy policy and one of the only "taps" available to the Government that they can turn with immediate results in the NS O&G tap, however, there would need to be an abandonment of EPL or a substantive modification and sufficient assurances that the Government won't repeat a similar policy of stealing company profits if they recover again.

Just trawling through sites on the web and noticed that the ENQ website list of major shareholders has not been updated since March and there have been a few changes - perhaps IR should update more often?

AB received an additional 8,453,922 shares taking his shareholding from 12.45% to roughly 12.898% and Aberforth increased their holding by 25%, going from 8.22% to 10.02%. If Aberforth purchased more shares in the hope of a Serica deal they will have been disappointed but perhaps they have held onto the additional shares in the expectation that EPL will be revised. If Aberforth is with ENQ for the long haul, then the Asian assets will have caught their attention (35,000beod by 2030). Cobas has increased from 6.72% to 7.02% whilst Helikon slipped back across the 5% threshold from 5.01% to 4.9638%, insignificant unless they have continued selling to the next reporting point.

This year I have increased my holding by 27.5%, let us hope that changes on EPL are on the way, in the meantime 9 days to the ENQ results and update and 72 days to the budget and 231 days to the Scottish elections. If there are changes in the November budget, Liebour will be cutting it fine to close the difference between them and both Reform and the Cons i.e. the future of NS O&G!

I am starting to fret over looking at the news, you could not make it all up if you tried. Starmer's position is crumbling and he would be better to go before Burnham slips into Parliament and brings the left into power. In any other country Burnham's move is more akin to an announcement of a coup d'état by an un-elected (to Parliament) official. The policies that he has already announced that he supports will bring this country to its knees, destroy business confidence and I suspect that Burnham is more ruthless than even Milliband who is seen as a bit of a fool. Our future is in their hands and there is nothing that can be done until there is an election and then what, which party has the experience to run the country. I might pop down to the coast and see if I can hitch a ride in the other direction.

I hope and am now praying that Starmer and Reeves will realise that the NS O&G is one of the easiest to play if they want growth and that they have to play this important card before the Scottish elections which means before Christmas, otherwise they will lose badly in Scotland, stoke the Reform combustion engine and even provide CPR for the Cons in Scotland. This being the case, calls for Starmer and Reeves to go will become an unbearable cacophony, the later their departure, the stronger the left will become.

Personally, I am hoping EPL is repealed a.s.a.p., it might give me a few extra options to play out my own future, although I have a couple of cardboard boxes on standby and my benefit forms....

Frac, good find and echos what we have been saying on this board for ages now. I am convinced that Liebore have to do something about EPL before the elections which are seven months away, if they don't they will loose their gains in Scotland and open up an opportunity for Reform to make in roads and even give the Cons a small lift. A poor showing will put Starmer under pressure, assuming he is still PM (unlikely), strengthen Reform and raise louder voices for an early election.

ENQ remains my biggest holding by far, although annoyed that I have made losses here whilst missing real opportunities else where, but a decent deal and changes to EPL will see this share fly, as long as POO is reasonable - looking forward to the results and update just 10 days away.

when the government's opposition finds clear water on a policy (ns o&g), when the us president and his minions tell you outright, when trade bodies, companies and even "greenies" tell you, when companies go into administration, when the economy flatlines and significant statistics spell out the facts about declining ns production, investment and tax revenues, along with increasing imports, and questions over energy security and the cost net zero cannot be answered truthfully - it is time for a change in policy.

the epl review has been conducted and at some point we should here about the future shape of this punitive tax and the time to do something is at the november budget when ns o&g will be lost in the noise and can be justified for growth and being greener than distant less regulated imports.

i suspect the collective international s********* at the uk's ns o&g policies must be audible in the corridors of whitehall and the jet set bars in our capital and the grief must be audible in the cafes of aberdeen. liebour has to close the political gap on ns o&g policies before the scottish elections otherwise the election will go down as a monumental own goal for liebore.

added again today, convinced that enq's sp recovery is coming .....dyor.

10 days to the enq update and brent holding around $67.5, so hopefully blue later today.

Frac, you are so right on Liebores front bench body language, I have never seen anything quite like it and would judge Mandelson is toast, if not immediately, immediately after Trump's visit, in the meantime, until Mandy resigns, he will draw the media's focus from other more important issues and every day that passes will shorten Starmer's tenure as well by further questioning his judgement. I would also narrow down Starmer's resignation to within 6 months whilst Reeves and Milliband must be so grateful they are out of the firing line for a few days. Reeves will now last until she delivers another disastrous budget and Milliband until a new Liebour PM is in post.

The rest of the Liebour backbenchers looked uninspiring with a very few exceptions, their questions were insubstantive and as for Starmer's performance - very poor show, perhaps one of the weakest I have seen at the dispatch box!

EPL has fallen further down the agenda, so we and ENQ will have to be patient for that penny to drop.

The timing of the Kracken offload will help the update that goes with the year end results which is just two weeks away now.

My point in previous post slightly more relevant with age - what is AB's exit strategy re ENQ?

I think the ENQ tax losses will have driven the merger talks, but clearly Serica has some production issues and in the current geopolitical and policy environment, how on earth do you value an opportunity, unless it is priced for the worst possible scenario. Fortunately for us, AB is a seasoned and patient operator and I suspect that he sees organic or new field opportunities as less risky than taking over ageing assets, unless ENQ is already operator or would be operators on fields that they already know and acquire an increased stake.

I don't think AB has an appetite for huge debt or risk - he has been there and done that! He also has a big stake in ENQ which at some point he will wish to monetise, none of us are getting any younger and AB was 60 last month and must be considering his exit strategy and as a wealthy person, how he spends the rest of his life. He will not want to relinquish his position at ENQ until he has made a decent wad on his holding (over 234,000,000 shares). Survival of ENQ is the key here until EPL is lifted or substantially modified, before real shareholder value will be realised, plus while O&G prices are relatively low. In the long term POO will have to rise partly because of the alliances Russia is making and partly through a lack of investment and scarcity as fields decline.

Given ENQ's cumulative tax losses, reducing debt and liquidity, ENQ remains in a strong position to both survive and make the right deals as they pop up, probably as others are forced to sell (Waldorf/Prax) or simply want to exit the market for better prospective opportunities or tax regimes elsewhere.

It is a waiting game, and unfortunately, we on this BB tend to be ahead of the pack in terms of thinking things through, it has taken a couple of years for some of the politicians and the media to catch up with us on EPL. I now regret buying through August having seen today's ENQ sp, but perhaps it is simply another buying opportunity as we run up to the budget. I am strongly of the view that Liebore will have to act this side of Xmas to remove the clear water position on NS O&G between Liebore and both Reform and the Cons prior to the Scottish elections now just 7 months away.

ENQ will remain a going concern, if it infills current producing assets and develops its Asian assets (35,000Beod by 2030), whilst benefiting from lower lease costs and diesel costs. Tax losses offset corporation tax for the next few years and reducing debt will mean lower financing costs, without any deals, the single biggest question that will effect shareholder value if POO followed by dividend & Buyback policies.

Continue to be patient and I believe ENQ will reward us.

Russia and China have done a deal on gas which will shift gas production Eastwards and away from Europe, the penny will be dropping in Europe that strategically things have just got worse on the back of the Axis of Evil Summit last week. However, it will mean that Europe including the UK will now have to generate as much O&G as possible to avoid being squeezed by either Russia or the USA - that requires investment! It may be too little too late for the NS O&G companies but NS O&G remains one of the only instant growth areas for the UK and for that to happen EPL has to be abolished or substantially modified. I am afraid that rather than saving us, intermittent renewables are going to bankrupt us as their business case simply does not bear scrutiny without subsidies.

Googled "Starmer" and images are not flattering. In my view they show a man who is on the edge and very uncomfortable with his lot. Of course, the Cabinet reshuffle will not help as new Ministers struggle with their briefs (and I don't mean their underwear) and make some gaffs. The sad thing is that he has failed to replace the most publicly disliked and dangerous Ministers in the form of the misleading Reevsey and Millibrain, the former for her staggering incompetence and the latter for his flawed and zealous pursuit of NZ which will bankrupt the country and drive commerce overseas - including the NS O&G companies.

However, Milliband will provide a focus for the Media, Reform and the Tories (plus some Scottish and Liebore MPs) to sort out a sensible NS O&G strategy that hopefully will resolve the EPL debacle/theft.

The following link relates to an industrial action ballot which could effect ENQ production figures later in the year, although I suspect it will be resolved before any action takes place. Perhaps it is this that is weighing on the sp in addition to the gloom over the future POO and then of course the delayed results adding to the drift.

https://splash247.com/altrad-workers-on-enquest-platforms-to-be-balloted-on-strike-action/

I also read that Milliband is a head and shoulders above any other Labour MP in the popularity stakes with Liebore party members, so I am sure he is angling for deputy leadership of the party. If he were made deputy leader, Milliband would probably see it as a step towards being PM, he may also see it as an opportunity to bale out of being Energy Secretary before all the porkies he has mislead the public with come home to roost. This may be why he is maintaining a low profile, having to answer more acute questioning prior to the deputy leadership vote could damage his chances.

This article has a fair go at summing up this BB views on Milliband:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/starmer-wields-axe-spares-miliband-180723444.html

Milliband and Reeves are good at deceiving and misinforming the Public, what better qualifications for retaining their political posts and together will bring Starmer and the Country down.

Lammy's new role to make Starmer look smarter than he is............

Have not heard of the majority of other appointees.....................?

Rayner should also resign as an MP, I am happy if she stands again and wins a by-election, but she should at least give her constituencies a choice.

Now back to 12.16p and £225m MCap and I just don't understand it. Perhaps punters have swapped into Rockhopper which is up 5% today, 14% on the week. Brent just under $67, we should not have dropped over 4% this week. To a certain extent I blame the company and both delay and confusion over the half year reporting date. It appears we are drifting as a result of no news and and another almost three weeks to the results. With lower lease costs, finance costs, taxes paid and lower capital costs post the last update, I can only assume that they are waiting to announce a deal or timing and uplift so that they can present better results in an update over the formal results. Although, my wish list includes an announcement on EPL and just possibly that is in the pipeline and would have a major impact on any update and future prospects - wishful thinking!

I shall be royally disappointed if there is not a very good reason for the delay in announcing the half year results.

Very bored here with ENQ - anyone care to guess where debt will be at the half year?

Everyone is right until something changes:

The sp is undervalued, if EPL changes or and time passes until infills or Asian assets raise production and or POO holds or goes up, both the short term JPM 14p and the medium term 29p target are correct. If something changes, then JPM will quickly issue a higher target and will be correct again etc.

The issue here in the short term is something needs to change........... A sudden rise in POO, cancellation of EPL or at least a change that brings back investors in NS O&G and I suspect that either a change or a desperate fire sale of assets (Waldorf/Prax) will be required before any of the NS O&G companies can accurately evaluate any major deal.

We are now in a game of Poker with the Government, the cards are on the table with EPL and Net Zero and the demise of the NS O&G industry, so the truth is out there and it is question whether the Government folds on EPL before it is too late.

I know this is slightly controversial, traded volumes are low and last year's buyback programme was not exactly a raging success, however, I do think ENQ should institute a modest buyback programme whilst the shares are so undervalued. It would help long termers and compliment the dividend policy, ensuring that liquidity was tight and on a sp recovery, holders would see a more rapid recovery of their losses - I am assuming that most of us are in an overall loss position on ENQ.