RE: Valuation6 Apr 2019 19:49
NSOil,
"... I'm happy to hear from someone who trades.."
Yeah, me too. Or rather, someone who's 'unashamed' of that, but doesn't brag about it nor come on as the world's best trader. Like a recent 'newbie' he has.
Because lt's face it, anyone who has done the most basic 'DYOR' has got to have noticed one very important thing in the small print. That being, whatever happens further on up the road, Hurricane has no intention of paying dividends. So the only way anyone (particularly PI's) are going to make any money is through buying and selling. 'Trading', in other words.
I think a lot of PI's consider 'trading' to be something of a dirty activity. In fact, when it comes to HUR specifically, and the trading activities of one particular major shareholder concern, so do I. But I'll mention no names in that respect. But I can't let that lose any sleep for the moment. I can't trade 'fast', and anyway the trading band which the shares an in for now simply doesn't interest me. If I can see the possibility of a double-digit percentage profit I might get interested. But I leave the one or two percent stuff to others. Too much like hard work for a minimal return.
"I really appreciate the views of those with an oil background. However there is a danger that if posters that see things differently from the clubby members of this board are sent packing then confirmation bias can creep in."
Agree. But there are others 'here' who might not have an oil background and are part of what you see as 'the club' and whose input is immensely valuable. They know who they are, and the other 'clubby' people know who they are, as well. So there's a big element of mutual recognition and respect noticable on this BB. And maybe other 'newcomers' might resent this.
But like I said in an earlier post to another 'newcomer' but whose message immediately showed him as being a sensible person, there's no reason for the 'old lags' to suffer fools gladly. So when fools emerge, they might get more back in return than they were expecting. Or otherwise be completely ignored,which probably isn't what they were hoping for, neither.
I do agree with what you say about 'confirmation bias', which can be a very dangerous thing as a PI. And in fact, being a LTH shareholder who sometimes trades, Hurricane goes against the rules. It would seem to make sense to sell, because the share just doesn't seem to be 'performing' as one might wish, appears illogical, and so on.
But that's only if one looks simply at the SP curves and the 'finance' stuff. But when you come at it from a different angle, especially with some oilfield knowledge, it's a different creature altogether.
This project's been a long time coming together, and it's already cost a lot to get this far. Plus through some rapid and rather unexpected business-dealing the future outlook seems fairly rosy as well.
You can call it 'confirmation bias' if you want, but I have no reason to believe I'm going to end u
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