Member Info for adoubleuk

Thanks for the link, Missdosh!

However the artlecle contains this paragraph:

"Since then, it has banked over US$0.5bn of funding from private equity backers, it landed a US$387mln partnership with Centrica’s Spirit Energy, gained promotion to London’s main market exchange and its shares now valued at around £900mln."

Huh? Did I miss an RNS? When did we 'gain promotion to the main market' ? Or has the article been published rather prematurely?

Also, interesting that Proactive is once again mentioning the potential for takeover... In the same way that (dormant for a while) subject seems to have reappeared on these BB's. I sometimes wonder where these journalists get their inspiration from!

Some interesting chat here regarding the RNS, particularly from Extrader and IJWT, so I thought I'd add my bit!

On opening the RNS, I too was rather surprised by its brevity. However I feel that comparing it with the RNS for Lancaster 7 was a bit unfair, given the rather special nature of that well, so I looked at those for Lincoln and Halifax. But there again, there was certainly more detail included than what we see in today's announcement.

So it's a change from what we've seen in the past. However, knowing the caliber of Hurricane's people, I refuse to believe that this is due to some sort of sloppiness on their part: there must instead be a reason for this change to have occured. So what might it be?

Firstly, I don't agree with IJWT when he says that the measure of a good CEO is the share price. Instead I'd argue that the CEO (and the company) should be measured by its ability to 'deliver the goods'. And so far, Dr T and HUR have excelled in that. So for that reason, the detail included in past RNS's has not been to 'sell the company' (ie ramp the share, as we've seen other CEO's do elsewhere!), but simply to explain what the company hopes to deliver in material terms. So the question should be, why is today's RNS so devoid of explanatory detail?

I can think of two answers to this, though there may be more.

Firstly, there has been a weather change in Hurricane's communications since 2016, with the introduction of the quarterly updates. Plus there was the funding, involving a lot of new investors who presumably keep track of what the company they've invested in is doing, plus there has been a lot of media coverage. So Hurricane and its plans are presumably now known to a lot more people than they used to be. And so for that reason, those people already know what the Warwick well is about, so why repeat the detail?

But secondly, why try to hype up Warwick, when it's already fully funded, and not via debt? Because Warwick isn't for sale, following Spirit's 50% buy-in!

And I think there's a third reason related to Dr T saying he's got 'fed up arguing' with his detractors.

In the past the company has bent over backwards explaining what they're up to, wirh some success (cf the funding and the Spirit deal), but the detractors remain. And the SP remains low. But now the proof of the pudding is imminent, with FoiL and a few months' EPS operation. So why gild the lily? The thing's about to come into bloom anyway, so just keep the news short and sweet, and let the detractors stew on things for a while. It'll only be for a few months, now. And less than that for news of the Warwick result.

Biffadog,

"I'd be very surprised if HUR can't beat Catcher to FOIL. I won't bore you with all the comparison detail again between the two projects, but safe to say, that the Lancaster EPS is somewhat simpler and the FPSO is already proven."

Agree completely. I wondered why that had been included as the projects are so dissimilar.

Thanks for the prompt discovery of the latest update, Missdosh!

As time goes on, these updates seem to be providing answers to FAQ's posed on these BB's! Otherwise they're simply adding stuff we've already noticed, or has been reported on in the media, with just little tweaks here and there.

I find page 12 the most interesting, myself, in terms of questions answered, in that it finally defines FoiL. Obviously, a flare will be seen by many people WoS as hydrocarbons are introduced to the system. But this is not FoiL, but part of commissioning, so no RNS. FoiL is defined as both wells flowing steadily, which is when the boat will go onto dayrate, so definitely price (cost) - sensitive. So an RNS.

I'm happy to see that first uptake (offload to tanker) which will come later, is NOT the definition of FoiL . Hovever I note that it will roughly coincide with a capital markets days, which is News, because as yet unannounced.

It's tempting to print that timeline and then play pin the tail on the donkey with it, with the 'tail' representing the date of the AGM...

Entangled & Snowcameron are both correct.

I've still got about a kilo of the stuff at my place, if anyone wants to turn their local river bright green!

To those wondering when spud will be, we now have an answer from 'b2duthie'

"A week from arrival. Always the same."

Make a note of that, guys an' gals. Spud is always a week after arrival of the rig on location.

Something I never knew nor had heard of before. No wonder I got into a big argument with my bosses in Port Harcourt when it took us three weeks to spud. Maybe I should have gone ahead and done so, even if the supply-boat carrying the drillcollars and bit was stuck in a mangrove swamp under the guard of some armed and nasty people who wanted money before they'd let it go.

Slipanchor,

"What would be your guestimate of spudding be?."

Someone else asked that the other day. But really, I don't know. All depends on how much they've carried with them in preparation. Sometime next week, though, I'd say. But that's just a very rough guess.

Looks like two of us were writing at the same time!

Thanks for the link, laser!

slipanchor,

"Don't have the offshore knowledge to state running of anchors has been completed but if true it must be some sort
of record."

I haven't been following the operation closely (remiss of me I know, but even 'shipwatchers' sometimes have other things to do!), but remember, the anchors were 'prelaid'. And I strongly suspect this wasn't just the anchors, but chain, and so on.

Whatever the process involved, probably a great time-saver.

TO Leader and our little flotilla making good speed (6kt) and now only about 40 n miles from Warwick. Thought I'd just check before turning in. Interesting seeing the AIS page showing not just our FPSO but the rig plus a few boats as well! If anyone doubts the seriousness of Hurricane, look how 'busy busy' the company is right now, WoS!

Wulbert,

"I suppose what I'm really asking is; are we expecting business as usual here, or are HUR lined up for a particularly harsh time from bigger figures who may have been proved wrong?"

I don't see what sort of 'harsh time' those 'bigger figures' could give Hurricane that they haven't already done in the past. But I see what you mean, and certainly believe that it may play a part.

And regarding OGA: already they granted all the Rona Ridge acreage from Lancaster up to Halifax to Hurricane in an 'out of round' deal which took everyone by surprise. And I'm sure that p***ed-off some 'majors' immensely. Evidence possibly being that Shell and BP now have GWA and GLA 'corralled-off" having acquired surrounding blocks, 'in-round' ! But too late: none of what they have represents a sweet spot.

There's a lot of brinkmanship going on to my mind, but Hurricane keeps on upping the stakes. And (as posted before), I believe the possible tie-in of Lincoln to the EPS, and hints of progressing towards GLA FFD without huge help from a 'major' are prime examples of that. Tying in Lincoln will mean oil 'belonging' 50% to Spirit going through Lancaster infrastructure. A real foot in the door if there is one. Plus as a corollory, 'debottlenecking' and increased output will mean that the 'BP contract' for marketing of the first 35 million barrels will take place in a reduced timeframe... After which it'll have to be renegotiated, extended, or whatever.

One thing I refuse to believe, though, is that there's any sort of 'Shootout at the OK Corall' stuff going on between Hurricane and the 'Big Boys'. They'll be talking to each other still, not reaching for their pistols. But the upcoming EPS and FoiL, a (paid-for) rig heading to start a new three-well program on GWA, huge staffing increases and so on, demonstrate that Dr T and Hurricane mean serious business. And unlike the 'majors', they can move fast.

SoupChicken,

"Could it be that it is your statement that shows more of a lack of understanding of the process or perhaps what she meant."

Possibly the latter, not completely understanding 'her' post. Or more to the point, not understanding the view of people who are sitting and waiting for six or more months of EPS production before getting a slice of the action. It's almost as though they're EXPECTING the thing not to 'work', and being perversely pessimistic.

The thing being, Hurricane has already published vast swathes of the data in the public domain, but I have yet personally to see any 'negative argument' which takes any specific part of that data and produces a counter-argument suggesting that maybe such data has been misinterpreted and due to that the result may end up being different to what Dr Trice expects. And what's expected no doubt by the people behind a half-billion fundraise enabling the company to get this far in material terms, and also by Spirit, who will be 'carrying' GWA to the tune of a third of a billion. These are not inconsiderable sums of money, and people with that sort of money tend not to risk it on some wing and a prayer sort of gamble.

But no, the 'naysayers' just come up with far-fetched generalities like 'watering out' or 'depletion', without any figures to illustrate their pessimistic viewpoint. So it's not surprising Dr T has got sick of arguing with them. Not worth banging one's head up against a brick wall arguing with someone who believes the Earth is flat, or that the Sun orbits around our planet, rather than vice-versa.

"The reservoir pressure at the bottom of the well will both drawdown and then take time to build up and return to its static pressure when shut in."

That's a funny thing about fractured reservoirs: the results immediately after shutin following a flow period. They can be startling. Sure everything 'takes time', but sometimes it can be minutes or less, not hours! An eye-opener.

You obviously have some amount of knowledge of oilfield matters beyond the basic nuts and bolts of drilling. Have you accessed the Appex Conference Presentation of March this year? It's in the 'technical library' section on the company website. Required reading for anyone with the technical knowledge necessary to understand what thos graphs and plots actually refer to, and thus what they mean.

Don't worry, we're both actually coming at this from roughly the same place, I think, so don't construe this as some sort of argument. Like the CEO, I've given up on such arguments which sometimes crop up here and other BB's. The data is there, plus the interpretation. And as I've said, I have yet to see any coherent alternatives to such interpretations, based on the same data.

Of course there are always the idiots who might blindly say that the data itself is in doubt. But that's just conspiracy-theorising.

SoupChicken,

"Sorry to butt in, but the BHP will change as the well draws down and flows."

I was being shamefully sloppy in my quickfire response, and you're right of course. BHP within the well and the near-wellbore environment will of course decrease (extremely marginally) while flowing.

However Lady Sonia in his / her post to which I was replying implied that some people were waiting to see if there were some sort of reduction in overall reservoir formation pressure after six or twelve months EPS production. This would only be the case if EPS instigated some amount of localised depletion.

The company's literature, modelling, and figures, backed up by the DST shutin curves, argues very strongly that this will not be the case. In my opinion.

* EPS, not ESP!

Lady Sonia,

A few comments on your post before turning in...

"There does seem to be a subdued nature to this share since hookup."

Can't argue with that.

" The 6-12 months post FOIL bottom hole pressure results maybe too far off to tempt some buyers?"

Only people like yourself using terms like 'bottom hole pressure' without a clue what the term means. Sorry for being so blunt, frank, and seemingly impolite, but it's true. BHP on the Lancaster field will remain utterly unchanged by the presence of the ESP, be it over six months, twelve months, or years.

"What maybe putting off buyers is the behaviour of the share rather than the underlying value of the company?"

There, I DO agree with you, and I consider myself somthing of a 'LTH' here. Hurricane is a fantastic company, (in the proper sense), what they've done and are doing is equally great, but somehow the SP isn't adjusting accordingly. And sometimes one's got to think of one's own cash. If I sold tomorrow (which is something I'm absolutely not going to do), I'd still have made myself a significant profit. But I've slightly lowered my 'greed level sights' over the last few months, because this share is being 'manipulated' by others with far deeper wallets than my own, and I can't fight that for the length of time they can afford to.

"There's an "opportunity cost" building up here, so 60-70p by Christmas 2019 is my target, any less and may have to use that unpleasant word "divest"

I don't make predictions like that. And if the SP hasn't made 60p before then I'll be tearing my hair out, or maybe simply be found lifeless bobbing against a weir-gate somewhere downriver. With a note in my pocket saying that Dr Trice deserves a knighthood, but someone should plant a bomb under the stock exchange.

I get the gist of your post. Sometimes one has to take a long, hard, and cold look at one's investments. This one in terms of SP is now behaving quite illogically. There's one thing I'm sure of, however. It's not due to the BoD, the operations, nor anything like that. We're getting (on paper) ripped-off, but it's someone else doing it.

Cebo,

" I guess about 60 days later an Interim update saying that the Company are cock a hoop that a mahoosive oil column was encountered at Warwick containing shit loads of the black stuff. IMO"

In my opinion, as well.

But no doubt a certain 'investor company' will just let the thing ride a bit, then sell bigtime into the rise. And then that company's CEO will turn up at the AGM with a smarmy grin on his face.

* Oh.

"My dear departed mother"...

JoeSoap,

"ADUK thanks, but jfyi: https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/brexit"

Oh bother, that does make me feel very old. My dear departed (a long time ago) used to work as a researcher for the OED in the 60's. The 'Shorter' version (about the size of a Tudor-era church bible) I have and which I frequently refer to is dated 1956. Back then in took about ten years for a revision to be printed.

Nevertheless, I do use modern online dictionaries as well. And although the OED appears to have got the etymology of the 'B word' fixed, the definition still seems vague. Thoug not surprising, I suppose.

Sorry about the O/T, folks! And I won't mention that word again.

Mr Wilks,

"Dont know the weight of TO but i know its not streamline. That tug must have as much power as your range rover AD."

No, just a tad more! But one has to understand towing vessels and suchlike. The Siem Opal has 297 tons 'bollard pull', which is quite a lot. Whereas a rangerover would be spinning its wheels and burning the tyres (or the transmission) even doing such a 'static test'. Hey! On a recent 'Grand Tour' episode, Jeremy Clarkson demonstrated that a Citroen C5 could move a 17,000 ton cargo vessel 20 yards. So I reckon my old rangey could pull a semisub. But not at 5 knots, and besides, it's not amphibious.

I've pulled a 10 -ton France Telecom lorry out of a ditch with it once, though...

JoeSoap,

Excellent post, and glad to see that sometimes ther are other people who write at the lengths that I do!

"Therefore, my view is that monetising is further in the future than many LTH had ever expected. as the majors continue with their buying strike."

Unfortunate as it may seem, I'm coming round to the same feeling as yourself. And from the point of view of a humble PI, the idea of becoming some sort of new millionaire out of this is becoming somewhat distant, and I'm rethinking some ideas.

Having a major shareholder in the company who's not a real investor but just a self-glorifying jacked-up daytrader doesn't help things, of course.

Something's really perked my interest of late, and I'm surprised nobody's really latched onto it on this BB. The upcoming 'No-Deal Roadshow' by Stifel, starring three senior members of the Hurricane BoD. What the devil is a 'no-deal roadshow' when it's at home? Does anyone know? I'm looking forward to a transcript of the thing.

The point being, I reckon that the likes of BP and Shell are keeping their chequebooks firmly in their pockets for now, especially as they've got dividends to pay to their shareholders, so dreams of Hurricane SP suddenly leaping to five quid are just that. Dreams.

Plus people are sometimes pooh-poohing the idea that an upcoming retreat from membership of the EU by the UK (commonly known by a term beginning with 'B', but not yet in the Oxford English Dictionary, so the Prime Minister saying "Br**** means Br***" is meaningless), and that Hurricane's now dollar-basing itself, can't stop me from having some very weird ideas indeed.

The notion of WoS fractured basement mentioned in the past being a potential 'strategic asset' for the UK is linked to such weird ideas, as well.

All I want to see is the SP back in the 60's, and I'm not talking about Beatlemania! Oh, and a flare being seen from Warwick, maybe roughly coinciding with FoiL news, and roughly coinciding with the AGM. And some other stuff. Like being able to eat foie gras (like I did today) without having Frau Merkel and the thought police telling me I'm bad...