" Right now is the time that we would be setting off for Canet and there we would remain until early October. "
It must be frustrating for you. I can't even take a day-trip to our little family cottage in the Limousin for a tidy-up. The grass and thistles will probably be shoulder high before I can go there.
Never know, I might be down in your (Canet) neck of the woods mid-September, assuming the world hasn't come to a complete standstill by then. I've taken a gamble and booked a hotel for ten days at Lloret del Mar for the 'Sismix' tournaments...
"Take car, stay safe.................................................and do as you're told by 'les Flics'"
I'm sure that was a typo, and instead you meant 'take care'.
Haven't got behind the wheel for three weeks now. And miss it dreadfully. Home-from-home is the road.
Of course I obey the 'flics'. Except when I don't. Being a good boy at present. Though if 'mob rule' breaks outs out, I may take advantage of it...
" A pal of mine is two weeks into Covid contraction & has been advised (by his Mum, a nurse) that he's still got another week to go to be clear. He described his 'journey' so far to me and, believe me, it was bloody scary. But being a poker player spent most of the call bemoaning almost certainty of the WSOP getting cancelled this year, lol. Stay safe folks."
Give your friend my best wishes. And yes, 'living' through the thing is scary, but depends on one's outlook.
The 'cancellations' can be even more scary. How am I going to pay my rent? Online doesn't do the trick. Because it's become inundated with people who don't 'understand', so it's like the loto instead.
I've nevertheless booked my little hotel-room for the Sismix at Llioret in September. If that goes ahead, it'll be mobbed!
"Many thanks to you both for even bothering to come back for a second go. At least I have found something that gets me close enough to make me happy.
I ticked you both up for your kindness."
No sweat. In fact I think you may have just made a wrong keyboard input of 80,000, instead of 60, in which case you'd have been right.
By the way, where are you? Back in the UK, or sweating things out under 'lockdown' in the Roussillon? Naturally, the truck-race at Elne is cancelled, though I'd thought of popping in there (and Canet) on the way down to Barcellona (also cancelled).
Booked my hotel at Llioret for September and the 'Sismix', though, so (hopefully) may drop through, assuming the world hasn't ended...
"You are the lucky one not knowing anyone taken by this horrid virus."
Other than myself?
" Let me tell you it is horrendous for those try to come to terms with everything."
Who are they, the priesthood?
" The last thing on their minds is the making of money."
Who? The 'administrators' of the NHS? Tell that to the marines.
" The numbers quoted is dubious to say the least, same as betting on this particular share."
"Oh, it does.
But then you've got to take into account the API gravity of the oil concerned!
When I posted 425,000 bbl, I in fact 'upped' the figure, just to live up to my reputation as a 'ramper'!
But summat around 420,000 is the right 'ballpark'.
What's a few thousand barrels between friends, other than a good party?
Plus 'Betty Knutsen' took off a bit more than 200,000 a fortnight ago (probably weather-related).
Going great guns out there.
Ah, the weekend! Not that I'd have really noticed, given 'lockdown'. For a few hours I thought today was Thursday, but it wasn't, so it's nice to see a bleu end to the week. Not something I was expecting, to be honest. Maybe some US investors are looking at HUR being a good bet rather than their own stuff?
Anyway, it's the weekend, when LSE allows this BB to stray a little O/T, at times.
Of course, there's been some discussion here about CV-19 here, and some people object to that. But personally,I don't consider it can be considered O/T, because it's having a direct impact on the economy, the markets, and thus our own investment here.
'Lockdown' being what it is, a silver lining to that cloud is the way friends and distant relatives have upped their communications, just to 'keep in touch'.
Yesterday evening, I thought to phone a friend of mine in the UK. He runs a long-established and highly respected family-run building firm in Wiltshire, with about 20 full-time employees, but numerous subcontractors relying on his business.
He told me that on Wednesday, he's had to shut down. Not for lack of work (he's got at least six months' orders on his books), but because of supply-chain outfits unable to supply, because they'd already shut.
So meeting with his direct employees, he's keeping them on 'standby pay', because they're valued people, and he's unsure if this 'furlough' thing will work. Better to keep his key people with him than throwing them to the winds of government promises.
But, as he told me, the company can only continue on such a footing, not applying any mortar to stone, for a couple of months before the cash runs out. And how about his future clients? Can he be sure they'll be able to honour their committments now?
This, I feel, is the crux of the matter, and very worrying.
It may sound callous and heartless, but in my 'social contact circle' (which is large, and widespread) I know of nobody who has been hospitalised, even less died), because of this CV-19 thing. But I do know a number of people who may find their businesses (be it catering or transport, or whatever) going broke.
"But what about ?
"For some oil fields, shutting down could cause permanent damage to reservoirs. "
Ok, I'll go out on a limb here, because I'm NOT a 'reservoir engineer'.
But I suspect it's related to my earlier reply, and especially in old, 'marginal' fields, of which there are lots in the N.Sea. Some of which, if truth be told, are only kept going at very slight profit in order to defer inevitable 'permanent shutdown' and decomissioning costs.
Many (if not at a guess most) such 'marginal' fields rely upon 'artificial lift' or 'pressure support' of some sort. If not ESP's, also water and gas re-injection. If production is shut down for any length of time, (likewise injection) the reservoir may reach a sort of stable condition where the various fluids (water, oil, gas) 'find their own place' within the formation(s) involved, so on re-start, you may find a well which was producing 75% water, won't 'come back in' without a workover of some sort (such as Nitrogen lift), and even then, once 'going', is now producing 90% water. So even that workover may not have been cost-effective.
These are just intuitive sort of guesses on my part. I'm not a 'reservoir engineer', remember. But I don't think Wood McKenzie would have made such a statement without having good reasons for doing so.
An 'oil reservoir' is a dynamic thing, as soon as you've drilled into it, and started to produce from it. So its behaviour changes over time, even if prior to production, it may not have changed for millions of years.
Here's a simple analogy. A racehorse put out to pasture because of an injury. Maybe not a big winner, but a good 'placing' horse, even so. After time out, will he ever race again?
"I don't understand why (maybe someone with more knowledge can explain) but according to Wood Mackenzie shutting down has its own costs, and could make restarting more difficult and expensive. "
There are many reasons for this. But it's a general engineering tenet that starting and stopping a machine / process / whatever and restarting it adds extra wear to the system. Just like a car engine: startup is when it takes the most wear. In the case of oilwells, especially in old fields relying upon 'artificial lift' such as ESP's, there's no guarantee that the ESP once shut down is going to start again. And if it doesn't, you've got an expensive 'workover' on your hands.
"I am in for the long term since yesterday at 12.20p "
Welcome onboard! As you've properly noted, the only potential downsides are (imho) macro-economic related, and thus beyond the company's control. HUR is better placed than any number of independents to weather the current storm.
"Double is fairly certain that he had CV and of course he doesn't figure in the statistics either."
And won't for a long time yet, probably. Because no reliable test has yet been developed to find people who might have caught the thing, recovered, and might thus already be immune or at least has an antibody present in their system.
This was something I thought about as early as February: going to my local hospital and asking them to blood test me in case it could be of help. But on my brother-in-law's advice (he's a retired GP) I didn't, because even back then he knew no reliable test existed.
And anyway, hospitals are places to be avoided as much as possible, unless visiting an unwell relative or friend, or if one's unwell oneself.
Maybe later, when 'mass testing' kicks in, I'll go for one myself.
"ADUK. what are your thoughts on putting more emphasis on 7well and choking back on 6well. My reckoning is it would still give the co. data and by the time poo is back up we could have a nice dry well."
I'm afraid I can't put forward any views on that. I'm not a 'production hand', and anyway have no data as to how production is being handled at present. All I know is the same as everyone else has been informed about, that being that the EPS is producing around 20K bbl/day, and that any 'water cut' is presenting no problem. So it seems like those people out there know what they're doing and don't need any help from me!
" What non rig pigs don't really understand is how much of an impact C19 is having on day to day operations "
Well maybe. Or maybe not.
What really irked me was that 'EnergyVoice' article last week highlighting a CV-19 medivac from the AM, as though it were something special. Because I'm sure there are any number of similar instances taking place on any number of other installations. Rigs, platforms, supply boats, whatever. They're all fairly 'closed environments' where it's pretty much impossible for people to observe 'social distancing', and also (at least within accommodation units, control-rooms, rigfloor 'Drilling Shacks', etc.), there is air-conditioning which means that if someone sneezes, one's quite likely to breath that air, even if one's in a different cabin.
Of course, it's even worse in aircraft, and especially helicopters where one's crammed in like sardines.
"I have heard but not sure if 100% correct, that there are 11 Jack Up's and some semi's looking to go into Invergordon in the next while due to this downturn with planned wells being shelved."
OK, maybe just rumour, but it wouldn't surprise me at all.
" Drill crews on platforms are getting notices and with rigs heading in, I would expect there would be more pay offs. The NS is not in a good place at the moment but you won't see this in the news for obvious reasons. Looking for a producer to be drilled in the short term I find somehow doubtful but who knows this is just my view."
For lack of news, this doesn't surprise me, either. But the point (for us at least), is that it won't be a phenomenon specific to Hurricane. Nor the NS oil industry, neither. What will be happening in the GoM with their monster platforms and huge manpower?
" as you have said before Hur are not about to comment on day by day operations."
Yes, I have said that in the past, and still maintain that view. But the 'voyage of the 'Seawell' is a major operational thing, and there hasn't been a squeak from HQ about what it's all about, even though some people here and there have made some good guesses.
Sure, P&A-ing some obsolete wells isn't as sexy as drilling a new 'producer', and could probably be taken as a negative sign by those not really understanding the nuts-and-bolts of the entire thing.
But it would nevertheless be nice to have such guesses confirmed or otherwise, 'cos the 'Seawell' is costing more than calling an Uber from the heliport.
"What would happen if BP said "Hang on Hurricane, we don't need anymore more of your oil at the moment … we're full up " ?"
I think in such an event, Hurricane would be in a good position to sue the hell out of BP for breach of contract.