Member Info for adoubleuk

"You definitely do not want to cone gas if you can afford it."

Quoth 'BoldReceiver'.

Gas 'coning' is not a phrase (nor concept) I've ever heard about before. But then, in a following post he writes

"Downward gas cusping and upward water coning through fractures leave high residual oil saturations in un-swept areas of the matrix and can significantly reduce ultimate recovery factor."

Can't say I've heard of 'gas cusping' before, either.

All this coming from someone who says he's not invested, won't post anymore, but coninues to do so.

I wonder who's paying him to do this?

"OK. I will stay out of it. Hint taken."

Says 'BoldReceiver', who isn't invested, and has said more than once thathe'd stop posting, but doesn't.

Bet he'll be back here tomorrow.

Laser,

Yet more 'tech'.

It must be borne in mind that any 'producing below bubble point' is restricted to one well only. maybe two. during the 'test' periods that 7z may be put onstream. So it's all very localised. This is one of the most shocking parts of the entire scam that the (ex) BoD tried to pull, alongside their highly doubtful CPR. Taking data from one well, and applying it across the entire field, and also the surrounding assets.

It's an interpretation I personally do not believe, so am glad to see the back of 'em. Though I hope Chaffe gets kicked out asap as well.

Hi Laser ! Longtime no hear !

More tech stuff. Those not interested, please skip...

"yes a gas cap should form at the top of the reservoir before it starts getting produced, and this would reduce the rate of the overall reservoir pressure drop.

Hmm. This got me thinking bigtime.

And in some ways I agree with you, but in others, I don't. Because in an aquifer-driven reservoir, should reservoir pressure decrease, the gas will expand to match, but not neccessarily drive some 'new oil' towards the wellbore ! That would be a simplistic idea. Going to have to think more about this.

"Any large fractures on the top of the well for the gas to escape would not be good not good as the espump would probably work below its capacity"

Another thing to think about. The more you 'pull' (maybe to maintain a certain bopd output, below bubble -point pressure), the more gas and less actual liquid fluid going through the pump. Which could indeed cause it to trip on 'underload'.

But at the same time, even if 'opening the tap a bit' might cause increased watercut, that may forstall such a situation !

What a conundrum. Wish I had the full data.

Mirasol,

" Here I suspect the fractured nature of the reservoir will act in our favour and spread the gas far and wide - the problem is if the well, the only well is at the top of the structure then the gas will stay around it and cut the oil flow..."

(Tech stuff. Those not interested, please feel free to skip it.)

Here, I disagree with you, though admittedly have no pertinent empirical data with which to support my argument.

The well is not 'at the top of the structure' and is evidently at a highly fractured and 'permeable' area. 'Released gas' in the near-wellbore area, and not sucked into the well itself will percolate upwards to the caprock, above the Victory Sands, rate of 'percolation' depending on how fast the well is being 'pulled upon', which indeed could be a sort of balancing-act'

But I'd contest that such localised behaviour will have no real effect upon the (extensive) reservoir quality and potential as a whole.

Adrianuk,

"Main concern is what happens when the well reaches it's bubble point? Any experts here?"

I'm going to have to be careful here, because despite my extensive oilfield knowledge, I am not a 'reservoir engineer'. So in this respect, would be happy if anyone more knowlegable in the matter writes here to contradict me.

I do not see that 'producing below bubble point' should be seen as a 'major concern', although it's a bit of the technical flim-flam that the (now ex) BoD shoved into the mix withe the rest of their attempted scam, and (supposedly) applied to the OGA for permission to do.

Essentially, what it means, is drawing on the well at a production rate such that near-wellbore pressure falls to the point at which gas (already in solution) is released to the near-wellbore surroundings. And such gas will naturally rise to the caprock, creating a 'gas-cap', which is detrimental to nothing.

And with just one well producing, such localised drawdown will affect absolutely nothing regarding the reservoir as a whole, which is extensive.

The difficulty is in the actual producing well. It will if 'pulled-upon' too hard, it will result in more 'produced gas', which would have to be disposed of. Either through powering the AM, or flared (to which there are limits), or otherwise via a pipeline to shore, providing energy to th populace. The latter possibility being something planned, but which the company-destructive BoD completely clammed-up about. Instead, spending money on a shameful legal course, money whoch could have gone into such a project.

But 'pulling too hard' on the one producer, below bubble-point, with gas coming out of solution from depth, could possibly have life-shortening effects on the ESP's (downhole pumps), leading to possible breakdowns, which could be costly to remedy.

But that was the recent board's plan anyway. Wipe things out, and sell at rock-bottom price to their buddies, maybe receiving a big backhander for having done so.

With what we've got, 'well-management' is crucial, and I'd love to see Dr Trice back if possible, not necessarily in the driver's seat, but as a sort of 'navigator'. Mistakes were made in the drilling of 7z, and maybe some interpretations of OWC were over-optimistic and erroneous.

But that doesn't change the facts.

Many companies would give their eye-teeth for a well like Lancaster 6. (Drilled with precision, unlike 7z.) Producing like stink. Forget the 'bubble-point issue'. It's almost irrelevent.

TopCat81,

"Not sure another CPR would do much good until HUR have a subsurface team that knows what it is doing. "

In some ways I agree, unless it were a 'rush-job' thing from RPS, reviewing recent data, and their previous conclusions. But these things take time, and cost money.

CPR's are merely marketing tools to attract investors. There's already enough data out there (some true, some over-optimistic, some false, based on negative assumptions) upon which oil-savvy investors can base their decisions.

We don't need a new CPR. Instead a resume of the new board's approach to things.

Alavib,

"And I am sure the judge was well persuaded by that email received by RB from BW about shorter extensions of the FPSO "

Of that I am convinced. It's a crucial point. It's in nobody's interest to not extend the charter, even incrementally. Nor to cease production via the FPSO. Because the FPSO has nowhere else to go in its current configuration.

The presentation of the 'insolvable company bondholder / company plan' was to my mind lies, hence the judge throwing the case out. And the mention of 'covid' a complete red herring. The way out of the mess the world is currently in is to look forward with a slight optimistic approach, not to prematurely throw up one's hands and say the sky is falling.

Contradicting an earlier post of mine, I've changed my mind, and bought back in. Not a lot, just what I can afford, but properly 'back in' once more ! It gives me a good feeling.

"And thank you very much senseman, you were a big inspiration to all of us shareholders here, tbh, I had never seen a BoD/Executive Team as incompetent, deceitful, corrupt, arrogant, and so very blatantly shareholder destructive as this one "

I'd second that.

The big question now (to misquote Hamlet) is whether to re-buy, or not to buy?

I think I'll wait for a statement from the (new) BoD as to their new strategy before making a decision on that. Because right now I see the SP changes as pure stockmarket speculation, rather than anything else.

Good to see a couple of real oil-people on the BoD, though, and some conspiratory shysters out of the door. No doubt they'll have done their homework, and have their own views on the most recent and destructive CPR, which Chaffe et al used as a basis for wasting shareholders' money bigtime on the 'plan' which was rejected by the High Court.

I don't think such an RNS will take long in appearing.

TopCat81,

"they should and likely will all be investigated by various organisations"

Ah. I agree in principle, but should 'they' be investigated as individuals. or as directors, or will it be the company in general ? I was utterly shocked to read that 17 million had been gobbled up just putting together the restructuring plan which was thrown out of court. Though that figure is just hearsay, unverified. But even if it's in the correct ballpark, it represents a complete wast of money which could have been better spent on other things.

There are other things to investigate at well. Potential complicity by OGA in the entire scam. Shareholders deserve an explanation of the rationale behind the P&A of Lincoln. And also the relinquishment of all the acreage up to Halifax, and whether that may not be reversed. Instead of P&A Lincoln, why not drill a new well on Halifax, which would be classified as 'appraisal/development' with far fewer restraints than the 'exploration' well which has now been abandoned? Tecnically, I was quite staisfied with the explanation of the failure of the DST testing on that old well, it was in some ways to be anticipated, and I refuse to believe that they were offered as deliberate lies.

OGA should be investigated, maybe, and whether they get backhanders.

Chaffe should certainly move on asap. It won't be hard to find a new person who could act as CFO. Because during the hearings, Mr Smith, Hurricane's QC, was constantly reverting to him in the document bundle like he was Moses. 'Chaffe says this, Chaffe says that'. In not sanctioning the restructuring, the judge was essentially saying he didn't accept Chaffe's reasoning.

He should be replaced quickly, because he cannot be trusted, and could easily throw all sorts of spanners in the works as 'revenge'.

BoldReicever

"So a bit of good news would be if the development of WOR is more favourable, and you are not going to know just yet. ....... I will monitor the WOR development with interest."

So WE 'won't know', but you might. Who are you, exactly?

BoldReceiver,

" I will monitor the WOR development with interest."

So would I, if I had full data, which I don't. Such as choke size, ESP running rate, and so on. This is the unfortunate bit about the whole thing. The company can go and instruct the crew on the FPSO to make certain 'adjustments' which could screw up the well in short order and there's nothing we can do about it, thus giving yet more 'negative news'. And given their recent behaviour, I don't discount that possibility.

I'm starting to really suspect that our newcomer 'Bold Receiver' is in fact our beloved CEO Mr Maris himself. Or one of his sidekick minions.

Boldreceiver,

"It does not matter as I will not be posting again. "

But you have just done so, twice.

Put up or shut up. Or at least (if you carry on), give everyone a hint of your 'expert credentials'.

Boldreceiver,

What is this latest nonsense you are trying to feed here ?

No foundation whatsoever. You're making this up. Otherwise quote a reference to what you are purporting to have 'quoted'. The company has already got (at least) the upper ESP running again. And anyway, if P6 is capable of flowing at 11,000 bopd under natural flow (with all the constrictions in the completion, etc.), there is absolutely no reason to think it isn't an absolute whazzer of a well.

You're now making yourself look silly.

Ah ! That's better. Guess my computer was just being slow in updating.

Like yourself, 'Alavib', I find the sudden appearence of 'Boldreceiver' for the first time, today, claiming to be an 'expert' in fractured basement reservoirs deeply, deeply suspicious. He / she could be Maris himself. There are very few 'experts' in the matter on the planet on the matter. Personally I do not claim to be one, but have worked on 'fractured reservoirs' in the past, including one which was in 'uplifted basement' in Libya, and that was very interesting. The geologists (and to a certain extent myself) were crying out for the well to be tested, but it wasn't, because it was an ongoing, highly profitable field, so management had no interest in 'experimenting' with one well for the sake of it. P&A, move the rig to the next location. Understandable.

But Hurricane's case is utterly different. The ESP is an 'experiment' in itself to prove certain therories which Dr Trice, the company's founder, had. That oil could be commercially produced from fractured basement WoS. And in that, his theories have held up, in that oil is still being produced though well 6 at a profit. Even if the 'new' BoD decided to spend a lot of that profit on legal fees setting up a sort of corrupt way of removing the shareholders from the equation, possibly to benefit from scepticism instigated by their buddies elsewhere from the get-go, but are now marketing the oil from Lancaster.

I won't deny that 7z is a bit of a kludge, and Petrofac (during the drilling) may have been rather negligent. And also, that due to confirmation bias and over-optimism, maybe some geological interpretations (particularly regarding OWC) may have been wrong.

I stand to be corrected (but would ask for references), but there is no single well on Quad 204, Scheihallion, Clair, nor surrounding fields, producing at 11,000 bopd.

The situation is now very delicate. Someone could easily be bribed to stick some sort of technical spanner in the works (almost literally), and so long as tracks were carefully covered, malfeasance would probably be hard to prove.

We're not on the racetrack yet, more bumps and potholes in the road to be anticipated.

But (although I've personally at the moment got just a minimal holding) I urge all shareholders to stick to their guns, vote out the majority of of this crooked BoD, and so on.

Why have all today's posts just suddenly (on my computer, at least) while they sho on my phone but can't reply ?

Picsmaister,

On the 22nd you wrote this:

"given that the Bluewater is already fitted out to extract for Hur, surely it is in Bluewater's interest to continue the lease with Hur if feasible"

Curiously, scrolling back through this BB, all posts from the 20th-22nd seem to have disappeared for some unknown reason. But I found your message anyway, through different channels.

What you mention is an absolutely crucial technical point. One which some 'laypeople' may not fully appreciate. I don't use the term 'laypeople' in a derogatory manner, by the way. I'd count plenty of financial wizards amonst the bondholders as 'laypeople' as well.

Even if Bluewater got a different contract (unlikely) for the FPSO under a wind-down scenario, it's not just a simple question of upping sticks and sailing into the horizon to plonk it on someone else's field. It's not a drilling-rig, made for such purposes. It would be time consuming, and probably cost not just Hurricane but also Bluewater a lot of money. So for both parties, it's win-win for the boat to stay in place and producing, even if under new terms, perhaps on a year-to-year basis, and also maybe linked to field performance.

Contracts can always be renegotiated. Likewise the actual repayment of bonds. Instead of which the BoD seems to be presenting a take it or leave it binary scenario (on which they've already spent a bundle of cash without consulting shareholders) and a sort of fait accompli whichever way the judge rules. Which to my mind is tantamount to contempt of court.

picsmeister,

I think it is inappropriate to predict how the juge will rule right now. Only one thing is sure. He will make an 'announcement / judgement' tomorrow morning. The term 'announcement / judgement' I find interesting. He may (I don't know) simply 'announce' that he will defer 'judgement' until a later date. So let's not count our chickens before they're hatched.

As you and others have mentioned, this is very much a 'test case' in which the judgement is bound to set assorted precedents should something similar arise in the future. If people like you and I are capable of figuring that out, I'm 200% certain that the honorable judge has, as well.