Member Info for adoubleuk

IJWT,

"Not quite sure I get the continued lag in SP here."

Nor do I, though could postulate a number of reasons (and have done in the past!) but won't waste peoples' time by posting them here, again.

But I'm rather glad it's working out this way, rather than 'doing a JOG' which is really today's news in the AIM O&G sphere. And my heart goes out to people who held that (which includes a number of people here, as well, some of whom I know personally), because they've taken a huge 'hit'.

Equally, though, I wouldn't like to sound smug. The JOG thing seems vaguely reminiscent of SOU, and I never took up a holding in either of them. And have at times kicked myself about that, because I could have made a lot of money.

But would I have been clever enough to sell at the right time?

I don't know. Maybe not.

That's why I'm not trading HUR at all, just holding, 'cos I'm not a daytrader working on one or two percent. Quite happy seeing this SP chugging along between 45 and 50p.

For the simple reason that the fundamentals haven't changed at all.

Compare and contrast JOG and HUR. JOG spuds an appraisal well N.Sea with a possible potential of hitting about a 130 million bbl reservoir. Their share price goes above two quid. Their well turns out to be a duster, SP falls off cliff, but is still far more than ours.

HUR is sitting on a couple of billion barrels, shortly to be put into production, and possibly far more than that. No fund-raising looming on the horizon. Everything pretty peachy. But SP below 50p.

Does it make sense? Nope, it doesn't. But I gave up trying to make 'sense' of what goes on in this world a long time ago. If one's got a roof over one's head, a few friends you can trust, and enough money to keep oneself fed and maybe have a beer or two, you're already doing OK.

Chris,

"Notice this does not get much of a mention."

Why should it?

boblondon,

" I think that comment about people not wanting to buy in united states is a bit strange people are happily putting money into Russian, African, Ukrainian countries let me tell you the united states is one of the best places to operate in for oil and gas"

Let me underline please that my comment ", lots of people aren't really interested in having a stake in small production-figure oilwells the other side of the Atlantic" was opinion only and gut-feeling, not some sort of statement of fact!

But it has to be admitted (fact) that any number of small-time operators from the US & Canada list on AIM to raise funds, and then sink without a trace. So I suspect (again opinion only) that some people steer well clear of such stuff. I certainly do!

Of course, the situation with RBD isn't the same. In fact I feel the two CEO's are rather surprised at how well things appear to be working out regarding those assets. Rather unexpected icing on the cake.

But equally, I see some rather naïve maths being spouted by posters on this and other BB's relating price of oil per barrel, Reabold's equity interest, and cash profit. Maths which often doesn't add up.

This is why I'm quite happy to just hold at the moment. Might be showing a 'paper loss' for now, but not something to cause me lost sleep. I can't help but compare that with people holding JOG (very much in the news today) who've been hit with some very serious losses indeed.

But again, I never held JOG for the simple reason I couldn't understand the share price. I can't really understand the RBD share price, neither. How it remains a sub-penny share when JOG was over two quid quite baffles me. But there again, if it only increases one of these days (fingers crossed!) to a couple of pence, I won't be complaining at all!

Don't get me wrong. I'm not belittling California at all. But now what I'd like to see is other people getting interested in maybe buying some of the action there, not RBD becoming some sort of production company instead.

And (as written before), even if Parta may be a potential 'goody', my eyes and ears are more focussed on W.Newton. Because it's closer to home, and if successful will be bound to generate interest.

" With all the say so good news and the sp moves only down. It doesn’t sit comfortably with me."

I can understand Archie's point of view, although personally my holding here isn't big enough that the disappointing SP causes me any lost sleep, and nor do I intend selling for now just because the share is 'underperforming'. (Which is maybe rule-breaking and foolish of me, but nevertheless...)

I feel that one reason this share isn't 'going anywhere' at present is that S&S are so far rather unclear about their exit strategy and monetisation. I don't for a moment think they're hiding anything nor trying to pull the wool over peoples' eyes, but until they can publish some figures showing positive cashflow relating to production figures, or alternatively name other parties who may be willing to pay a premium for part of the assets under development, people will be wary of buying in. It's one thing maybe using income to finance further development (more wells on W.Brentwood or Monroe Swell, for instance), but until it can be proved that such moves will result in profits, it's a questionable strategy.

So personally I'm just holding and watching progress with interest. It'd be nice to get further news about what's happening to progress Parta, but I feel that for now it'll be W.Newton which will be the attention-grabber if it's a success. We'll probably have to wait quite a while before knowing whether Corallian has got a buyer for Colter, and although California seems to be looking good so far, lots of people aren't really interested in having a stake in small production-figure oilwells the other side of the Atlantic, profitable or not.

Snail,

PM reply in your inbox on this site.

MCB55,

I don't see a vessel over the wellheads (using Marinetraffic).

MCB55,

"If I remember correctly Dr T in his latest podcast did mention flow testing the well(s) by the TO, which is also part of doing a DST anyway, which obviously requires flaring. He rightly said that all (exploration) drill rigs are flow limited anyway by their on board facilities, so any flow test will be on a restricted choke. However they can still extrapolate quite a bit of info from a DST and restricted choke flow test."

You are quite correct.

On Lanc 6 they were 'constricted' by surface equipment. On Lanc 7 /7z the same, though the throughput capacity of the test-spread involved was greater than on 6.

And again, production from the EPS will be 'constricted' by the downstream stuff, not the ability of the wells to produce. But this time regulatory concers regarding gas-flaring, hence the need to 'debottleneck' via a pipeline.

This is why I write patronising replies to 'thestreet' who seems to know it all, from the workings of the stockmarket all the way to the workings of an oilrig, including DST's. 'Confirm the pressure of the drill' indeed. The only 'pressure of the drill' I remember is having to get up a quarter of an hour earlier to muster at the lifeboats on Sunday before getting breakfast and then doing a twelve-hour shift.

Summat that (despite trying my hardest to do) is find out exactly what choke-size they were running through on the Lanc 7 DST! But it wasn't anything more than 5/8, of that I'm sure.

And anyway, the periods of shutin after flow are even more interesting than the flow periods themselves. Though not so exciting and fun.

Muzza2,

" But for sure the HE guys will have their own views and run their own sensitivities on their own systems, not least to inform forward action plans and associated risks. And I'm sure that's what's providing the confidence for a 3 well program on the GWA rather than a tentative single E&A well..."

In a nutshell, YES.

Btw, your new here. So (a mild admonition), we tend to refer to Hurricane Energy here as HUR, or Hurricane. Not HE. That (having just posted an aside about W.B.Yeats' smutty poem) I can't help being reminded about a magazine which had the initials HE, and I've subsided into schollboy memories and giggles again.

Not that I've got a one-track mind...

thestreet,

By the way, sometimes I go quiet 'cos I don't spend all my time sitting at this computer. More ipmortant things to do like going out for a beer.

PS Won't you start a new thread headed 'Leader', please? Instead of 'Laeder'? The thing is, I've been reading about a new fresco recently uncovered in Pompei, involving the God Zeus and the daughter of King Thestius, which reminds me of a rather smutty poem by W.BYeats, and I keep bursting into giggles...

thestreet,

"Awaiting your expertise....."

Your wish is my command. We were writing at the same time.

thestreet,

"What about about the semi hook ups have you been on many of them pal....??"

Well, when you mentioned the people you knew involved in 'hookups', it was just prior to 'hooking up' the buoy to the FPSO. And no, I've never been involved in any of that. And of course, I don't think there's a single semi which has been hooked up to a buoy / turret system, though the idea isn't impossible.

But as you asked, and Cebo has requested a 'war story', my mind drifts back to a rather extraordinary operation I was involved with back in 1979, when I was working as a roughneck on the 'Ocean Kokuei'.

Argyll Field, operated by Hamilton Brothers. On a wing and a prayer and Texas shoestring, but which produced the first 'oil to shore' in the N.Sea. (Before Amoco and BP: though many people don't know that. Amoco were in second place, BP 3rd.)

Tie-back and hookup of a subsea well we'd drilled and completed (with great difficulty) to the FPO, which was a terrible rustbucket semi called the Transworld 52. (FPO, not FPSO: storage was a tanker moored to an SBM.)

TW52 still had its derrick and draworks (the hoisting system), though the moonpool was full of production stuff. We on the OK were a fullbore drilling unit, of course. Our job was to 'build' a flowline (rather like running tubing, though each connection was covered with thermally-shrinked 'wrap', run it down to seabed, where it was attached to a cable from the TW's draworks, pulling it in to their end. The two 'rigs' were about 1000m apart. We'd 'make up' a joint of flowline, apply the heat-shrink, (that was a CROWDED rigfloor!), slack it off, while in radio-contct, TW52 pulled it their way. Etc.

A memorable few hours were in the middle of the night, when TW52 suffered a total power blackout, probably due to the draworks not having been used in years. Much coffee was drunk at our end.

Then of course, when the thing was all run, it had to be 'hooked-up' to TW52's subsea manifold, and 'our' well's wellhead. All by sat divers, of course, because this was before ROV's.

I didn't see it start-to-finish, 'cos we worked 2&2 and the entire thing took more than a fortnight to achieve.

Happy days.

Muzza2,

"AWK.... the whole issue of the CPR concept is that it comes from market regulation aimed at PROTECTING the investor, by ensuring that reserves reporting is INDEPENDENT.... precisely to prevent this being used as a marketing tool where Dr C of Cowboy Resources can potentially inflate reserves to influence the SP. Like most AIM companies, HE chooses to use an external Comp Person (RPS) with Dr T signing off on behalf of the company (the alternative being the HE exploration team diverting resources to run this time consuming process and then get the Nominated Adviser to support it).

That's all I'm saying. I'm just concerned that readers here may be misled by ''CPR marketing tools''.

OK! Peace! I entirely agree with you. I suspect we're (figuratively) occupying the same relative space, but approching it from differing directions.

If I have misled anyone by describing a CPR as a 'marketing tool', I didn't mean to. But equally, it would be wrong for anyone (especially newcomers) to expect a CPR every step of the way. A major like BP (for instance) doesn't put out (and waste money on) a CPR every time they make a new discovery. Because in-house, they can do it themselves, because their own people can be considered 'competent people'. And anyway, investors in majors like BP couldn't give a rat's arse about the geology, and stuff like that.

And your point about CPR's being protection against 'cowboy companies' I take, but with a certain pinch of salt. Insomuch as a CPR can only be based upon data the company provides, which may not be complete, and the compiler of the CPR may draw erroneous conclusions.

This can work both ways, however. There is a consensus amongst longtime 'Hurricane followers' that the CPR's seem to tend to rather 'conservative' evaluations of things, which is great. Underestimation is always better than hype. It may even be that the company has requested such an approach: it's they who are paying for the dam thing, anyway!

And equally, a CPR isn't infallable, either. Rubbish in, rubbish out. And without naming any names, there have been any number of AIM-listed O&G companies touting their wares with a 'supportive' CPR and which have turned out to be rubbish.

Call me a 'ramper' if you like (just don't call me too late for dinner!), but I have no reason to believe that's the case here. It's probably the reason the SP hasn't 'skyrocketed' so far... No scam involved.

thestreet,

"Lerwick is on the east side of shetland. A wee geography lesson for you pal."

I know that. I've stayed there.

Just testing....

Bloobird,

"So as soon as the 'ship-watchers' report tankers leaving the AM every 25 days approx. then this to me would seem to be a pretty good indicator that 20k/day had been reached."

Put simplistically, you're correct.

But here's the thing. It's going to probably take about six months for the EPS to get up to constant full throughput. And by the time that happens, it'll probably be announced anyway, but more importantly by then it won't really be interesting. (Not to me, at least.)

The point I've been trying to make (supported by Cebo, and a number of others via communications not on this BB) is that it'll be difficult if not near-impossible to infer how the ramp-up is going via 'shipwatching'.

IvaP,

" we don't get hurricanes in the N Sea"

Maybe not of the 'tropical storm' variety that are popular in the Gulf of Mexico and places like that. But a winter rarely goes by in the N.Sea without occasional hurricane-force winds (and seas).

Same applies WoS, or even more so, though as others have pointed out, WoS is on the N.Atlantic margin, and a distance away from the N.Sea.

Yuyus,

"Aduk will tell how years ago this flare was exacerbated!!"

No I won't!

Crikey, you've got a long memory!

thestreet,

"When the leader is performing a test to confirm the pressures of the drills will they be flaring off??"

Ah, you're back! I was beginning to wonder where you'd gone to.

As someone who said they knew some people who'd done lots of hookups, I'm surprised all such contacts wouln't have been able to answer your question.

Yes, DST's will be performed using the TO Leader, and that will necessarily involve flaring. However (some free technical information for you), a DST is done to test a lot more than just to check the 'pressure of the drills'. Whatever that phrase may mean...

"If this is the case anyone West of shetland will see the flare ??"

I suppose this depends where they are. Although there might be a rip-roaring flare, it might not be seen by someone picking up lobster pots five miles off Lerwick. I doubt it'll be visible from the Faroe Islands, either.

MCB55,

"I can't believe that HE will be totally silent on production figures after 2nd FOIL rns for 6 mths!? I would expect them to confirm 20k bd from 2 wells achieved at least, albeit may take 3 mths to get there!?"

Yes, I agree (partially) with you there. Hopefully the company will let us know how things are going from time to time, but not evry time they do a pig-run! Depends how generous they're feeling in regard to their shareholders, I guess.

But intuiting production figures from 'shipwatching' will be difficult, and will take months.

MCB55,

" I expect there will be almost monthly production updates, if only from ship watchers."

That may be wishful thinking! The 'shipwatching fraternity' is widespread, and a number communicate other than just on this or other BB's. But although some principles have been established as to how some production figures might be VERY ROUGHLY inferred from public-domain sources, it will take some months' observation to be able to start fine-tuning that!

Of course some production figures might be obtained from confidential, non-public sources, but that would become 'inside information' and not to be widely disseminated, 'cos it's not just illegal, but might cost some people their jobs if published...

Muzza2,

I disagree with what you're implying.

In the link you posted, it's made plain that a CPR regarding reserves / resources must be provided for admission to AIM. However thereafter it's not mandatory, es per

"Review by qualified person
A qualified person from the AIM company or an appointed adviser, which may include
the CP, should review and sign off on each resource or drilling update and include
their name, position and qualifications within the notification together with a statement
to the effect that they have reviewed the information contained therein."

And a 'qualified person' within HUR who could do that is surely Dr T himself?

Nevertheless, for the sake of full transparancy, I do expect that a CPR will be commissioned following the GWA campaign. But whether we'll see it before the end of the year is maybe open to doubt. By year's end, however, we'll also have hopefully received a stack of updates and further news, on which bigger investors might be decision-making.

Also it must be remembered that due to the 'Spirit deal', a GWA CPR will be merely icing on the cake. Because GWA is now ALREADY SPOKEN FOR by Spirit! Not just in respect of upcoming drilling, but FFD in a further future. So what Hurricane will be trying to 'market' is GLA.

This is why I find the GWA drilling sequence 'interesting', starting on Warwick, with Lincoln coming later. And can't help wondering if the Lincoln tie-in to The AM might not be a clever kind of feint for the moment. Because a Lincoln tie-in will means there is oil which is 50% Spirit's running through the EPS: that company will thereby have a foot in the door of GLA, so any prospective partner will have that company to negotiate with as well as Hurricane! Plus also, (as mentioned before), why should Hurricane / Spirit give away more than basic data to their competitors?

I mentioned my suspicion of a 'snowball effect' yesterday, and the more I think about it, the more I believe it's true. It's as though Hurricane (especially through the 'Spirit deal') are shoving aces up their sleeve, ready to be produced as a winning hand when the time is right. Not in a 'cheating' manner, as though it were a card-game, but more in the way a stage magician has hidden cards and stuff stashed away in all sorts of places, to be revealed with an appropriate flourish.

I feel that if others want a slice of the pie, they'll have to get their skates on.