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A great report. Lots of 'meat' in it, so hard to comment without re-reading it a few times.

But a first impression is that it seems to represent a step-change in Hurricane's PR, and ceasing to hide their light under a bushel in such modest ways as we've seen in the past. Pulling fewer punches. The use of the phrase 'supergiant field' is significant, I feel. Interesting to note that somewhat hidden away is reference to the company investing going to GLA FFD using their own resources. That's new!

Also some different references to FoiL, which has been a topic here. I certainly take 'First Oil FROM the EPS' to mean first offload and oil to shore. So I suspect we'll get two different 'FoiL RNS's'.

Also good to see some timeline aspects being underlined. Such as tie-in of Lincoln not being before 2020, or at least Q4 this year, and positive steps already underway (at least at planning stage) regarding gas export and 'debottlenecking'.

The report answers a lot of questions people have asked here, but it needs to be read carefully.

JayKay, (and JoeSoap),

Now I'm treading cautiously, because a knee-jerk reaction caused me (on reading JoeSoap's post) to think of the 'infamous' 2017 warrents issue which caused such a stink amongst certain people.

But he wasn't. Instead, something from 2016.

I suggest we trawl through RNS's from then to be sure, before commenting further. With the question 'have those warrents been actioned or not?'

Might have to look further than HUR RNS's.

Where's 'Carnegie' and his 'dark pools' when we need him?

JoeSoap,

That's a very timely reminder, for which thanks.

However, it reminds me of some discussions which took place quite a while (18 months or more) ago. But worth revisiting, because it's a subject which will diectly affect all shareholders, especially PI's (us), and possibly the SP forwards.

Now here I have a question. One which I posed way back when, but one which nobody here seemed to have a definitive answer for. And it's genuine: I might be a fu**in' genius when it comes to drilling oilwells, but I'm a total dummy regarding some of the arcane workings of warrents and stuff like that.

The point being, a question-mark seems to subsist (ie no clear answers so far received) as to whether taking up' of warrents has to be in any way 'declared' to other shareholders, via RNS or whatever.

A vague consensus in the past seems to have been that it was not RNS-able, but there are doubts.

I have a (very) vague sort of suspicion that CA may have been progressively and slowly 'actioning' their warrents, 'converting' them into tradeable shares, and this over a matter of many months. Hence essentially giving themselves a greater amount of shares to trade than those which they seemingly diligently declare in their TR1's. Ie, keeping everything within a sort of 'bandwidth', but being able to trade more shares than are actually declared through a TR1.

I'm not suggesting that there's anything underhand or suspicious if this has been happening. In fact, if I were in the happy position of holding such warrents, it's just what I'd have been doing. Money for nothing (though I doubt RB gets his chicks for free).

I feel that an overwhelming overhang of so many shares to be disposed of all of a sudden on the open market all at one go, especially at this rather critical time in the company's development could be an embarassment to many, counterproductive, and could cause eyebrows to be raised.

I'd be interested to see other opinions from people more knowledgable than I on this question.

Wulbert,

Brilliant! Don't think that's ever been posted here before, it's well-known amongst oilpeople, of course, but not the general public in 2019.

A great example of things going REALLY wrong.

Makes our recent 'rope saga' seem a bit tame in comparison.

Albi1,

Firstly, hope the remnants of the 'flu are going! It took a long time for me, with a sort of lingering 'bronchitic' thing. Not helped by a 30-a-day Camel habit, true. But then, about three weeks ago, a very alarming day happened, coughing up all sorts of nasty stuff (including blood), and then, the next day, properly better! Breathing clearly again, right as rain, appetite properly back, etc..

Coinciding nicely with the winter starting to show signs of being in retreat.

Anyway...

"Just to repeat - 'respective data from GWA and Lancaster'. These are the figures that speak to institutional investors long term."

Hmm, yeah, but only in certain respects, imho.

The Lincoln 2016 results already show the similitude between GWA and GLA.

Naturally, II's (and more importantly, potential 'major oil' partners in GLA FFD) will be looking closely at GWD data,as the drilling results will emerge (slowly) at about the same time as Lancaster EPS 'performance data'.

But they won't (imho) be waiting until the Lincoln well is tied in to the EPS. In fact, they can't afford to do so! For a simple reason: the presence of Spirit. Oil going to the EPS from Lincoln will be partly Spirit's!

I've always been told never to play poker with a man called 'Doc'. And I believe RT is a demon Bridge player, fortunately, and Bridge players sometimes can't handle poker at all. They're not aggressive enough. But the 50% presence of Spirit on GWA and its development essentially limits any 'moves' on Hurricane to what happens with EPS and Lancaster. And limits the timescale to somewhere around the end of the year, when a Lincoln tie-in could take place. If not beforehand.

In fact the potential Lincoln tie-in might be an enormous bluff.

Not one I'd like to meekly call, though. Better to re-raise massively beforehand, just to force things into the open, if only to remain at the table.

Because let's face it, with the 'Spitit Deal', GWA is now financed. So Hurricane has no reason to open a 'data room' about it to anyone else.

fadg2,

"Blimey I did'nt think it was that common lol. "

Well I don't think that getting the platform in the wrong place is an everyday occurance, but it can happen! I didn't know about Cygnus Bravo, but it's recent, and my N.Sea days are long past, even though I try to stay in touch with news. But way back when, the Tartan story was the source of much mirth at Oxy's expence in the Aberdeen oilfield pubs...

But surprises can often occur, and they've happened to me personally. One being onshore Egypt in 2002, when we set up shop on a location which turned out to be 1.5 km from where it was supposed to be. There was hell to pay for that, 'cos this was only discovered after we'd done a successful test on the well, and also it was found out that whe place where we were was not that which had been mine-cleared before moving in! Needless to say, rigmove on moving out was performed with some trepidation, the trucks keeping to exactly the same track as we'd been using during the preceding weeks...

Or how about a well I was on in Libya, a development well in a long-established producing field, in 2003? When we got close to 'payzone' depth, we hit volcanics instead. an unexpected 'basement upthrust'. We cored this, and the geologists were highly intrigued, because this volcanic stuff showed oil ('fractured basement'!) and they wanted to investigate more. But the company wasn't interested in 'science projects' so we abandoned the hole as a duster. Later, though, we drilled an exploration well on an adjacent structure and hit highly fractured limestone, which was again unexpected. But the DST test was memorable. Now it's a highly prolific field in its own right, producing not only from the limestone, but also the 'basement'.

DC,

"Is this anything to do with the 80 day timescale?"

The timescale fits with a '7-type' well, plus also an initial deep well to OWC then sidetracked to horizontal makes eminent sense.

The 'exploration' status of Warwick is a burocratic annoyance with technical impacts. From what we've learned from the company, all the indicators point to Warwick being contiguous with Lincoln, the whole thing, in other words, being just one and the same big field. But 'administratively', they are considered as separate until proved otherwise. So as the Warwick sub-block has not yet been drilled, it remains 'exploration'.

One very strong hint that the first well will be a two-part '7-type' is the way it's now being referred to as 'Warwick Deep', a term which the company has only started using quite recently in its public-domain documents.

Biffa (and Extrader),

"Agreed, "proof of concept" was a bad choice of wording and for that I apologise."

Hey, no 'apologies' needed! We're big boys here, and it's not as though you'd caused me some sort of personal slight!

Agree with both your posts.

It's simply that I'm a bit of a pedant, and I consider the word 'concept' to be the wrong one to use. Especially as there seem to be a number of newcomers to this BB, some of whom have done scanty research and don't have a proper understanding of Hurricane's project, and the idea there's something 'new' involved might be off-putting to them.

As we know, the EPS is a means to proving up the field in terms of longterm productivity via a relatively cheap and simple installation. Just like hundreds of EPS's have done on numerous fields worldwide, both 'conventional' and 'unconventional'.

I'd be the world's biggest idiot and unworthy of the term 'oilman' if I denied that some reservoirs believed good turned out to be not so good after all. I quoted Premier's Solan earlier, and it's a case in point: I bet that company now wishes it had gone for an EPT rather than a full-production facility straight off the bat.

However I personally believe Lancaster to be different, and have considerable faith in Dr Trice and Schlumberger's modelling, plus the DST results so far indicate that the modelling is correct. But that's opinion only, and people could accuse me of confirmation bias. But that's their problem, not mine.

Confirmation bias can be dangerous, of course, and for the PI it's often characterised by blindly holding on to a share which doesn't seem to be performing right. But that's not the case here. We've learned (yet again) today why this SP doesn't perform 'logically'. It's no indicator of doubts in the company or some skeleton lurking in the cupboard: just our old trader 'friend' at CA selling (bigtime) into a rise once more. Some 'friend'.

And I liked the volcano story: hadn't heard that one! But that sort of thing can happen in the oilpatch, as well. How about Oxy's N.Sea Tartan field in the 70's? Discovered, tested, though not completely delineated, so on to a hugely expensive platform development. Jacket in place: first well? Dry. Huh? Second well? Dry. Uh-huh. Time to scratch heads. Took 'em a while to realise they'd planted the platform in the wrong place. They had to completely redraw the well 'mapping' before proper (and hightly successful) development could continue.

At least we know the AM's in the right place, because the first two wells have already been drilled and are tied-in.

Oh medre. Addendum to one phrase in my earlier post

"...and if nothing else can lead people who don't properly understand what Hurricane is doing to feel nervous." !!

Please let's stop using this idea of 'proof of concept'. It's uncalled-for and frankly wrong regarding Hurricane and the Lancaster EPS.

Biffa,

Part of your response to Albi1:

"The GWA drilling campaign has no connection to the Lancaster EPS schedule. They are being run separately."

Correct. Plus the Lincoln well will only get tied back to the AM sometime towards the end of the year (guesswork) if not next year.

Biffa (and extrader),

" before ultimate proof of concept can be established "

I apologise if this post might sound a bit patronising. I also apologise (well no, I don't) to others on this BB for being a nit-picking pedant. Sometimes repeating himself, as I'm going to now. But I think the point I'm trying to make is important.

This 'proof of concept' phrase. In my opinion, it's misplaced, potentially misleading, and if nothing else can lead people who don't properly understand what Hurricane is doing.

There is no 'concept to be proved'. Hurricane is not the Wright brothers trying to achieve heavier-than-air controlled flight. They are not trying to create commercially viable cold fusion. In short, Hurricane is doing nothing new.

'Fractured Basement' oil reservoirs are not new. And there are many producing (prolifically) worldwide. It's true that when FB was first 'recognised' in the 1970's, it was largely by accident. Also, as they were 'new' back then, good (appropriate) reservoir management methods specific to FB only eveolved slowly, much by trial and error, so sure, mistakes were made, mistakes which made FB seem somehow 'difficult'.

Also back then, some decades ago, various drilling technologies, notably in directional / horizontal drilling and drill-bit design and manufacture were neolithic compared with what now exists. So the actual drilling phase was, in fact, 'difficult'. Now it isn't, or at least no more difficult than drilling any other sort of oilwell.

Seismic techniques, and more importantly seismic data interpretation through now-existant massive computing power weren't the same back then as they are now.

There is only one thing which Hurricane is doing which is unique. That being, Dr Trice is the first to deliberately target FB in UK waters. And that for a simple reason: in the past, 'conventional' reservoirs were so numerous and vast that FB was simply overlooked and ignored. Many of those reservoirs are now depleting or already shut down, meaning the companies have gone to more hostile places like WoS to continue (cf Clair and Scheihallion) or looked at 'unconventional' reservoirs like FB or shale.

Plus now, HUR is not alone targetting FB. Cf (for instance) Siccar Point (WoS) or Lundin (N.Sea).

Plus EPS's (Early Production Systems) are not 'new', and nor do they indicate some sort of 'doubt' regarding what's been found. EPS's are as old as the hills. They're just the cheapest and quickest way to get a field producing (thus earning money), and to study the reservoir in depth and in a dynamic (producing) situation, so as to best decide how to move forward to greater development. (Premier DIDN'T install an EPS on Solan, but I bet they now wish they had done so!)

The EPS, therefore, is NOT 'proving a concept'. The concepts involved have already been proved up countless times. All it's doing is fully 'proving up' the reservoir and its characteristics. Same as if it were a 'conventional' field.

DC,

"According to the presentation this well is to be drilled below local structural closure in order to prove flowrates for deep oil. Interested to hear any views on the choice of this as the first well to be drilled and the potential for an upgrade in reserves."

Yes, the company has informed the drilling sequence, but you'll have to search the website for the reference 'cos I'm too lazy to do so! Sorry.

I suspect the well might be drilled like Lancaster 7 / 7z. ie drill sub-vertically and deep, try to find OWC, test, then plug back and sidetrack horizontally, maybe test again, before suspending as a future producer. Just a guess, though.

Warwick is still nominally 'exploration', though, with all the regulatory-imposed strictures involved, so DST may be awkward, like on Halifax, although lessons will no doubt have been learned.

Upside to the 'exploratory' status is any oil encountered (and why shouldn't there be?) will make it a 'discovery', and thus ipso facto increase the reserves figures.

thestreet,

"You have been in this share since 2017 ROTF"

No I haven't. Been 'in' this share a while longer than that! Read my post. Properly, this time.

LS,

" He did seem quite resolute about 2 - 4 months for FOIL."

Hmm. That's in fact where I found him the most 'waffly', and beating about the bush. Almost as though he was trying to clarify (correct?) what he wrote in his blog, and not doing a very good job of it.

As I mentioned a few days ago, I know some people have contacted Hurricane IR about the definition of FoiL, and replies received have been rather vague, which is a bit of a shame. But if the hints Malcy's been dropping are true, the company doesn't sound like it's going to make an announcement as soon as the FPSO goes 'live'. In fact (although this is only guesswork), it may not happen until the first offload takes place.

Which although it may sound a bit like 'cheating', that could be justified in some ways. Because that's what the 'O' in FPSO stands for, so until the first offload has been successfully performed, the boat can't really be said to have proved up all its systems in their entirety. It does beg the question as to when Bluewater will be going on the payroll, though, because I don't reckon they'll remain sitting on 'lump sum' all that time, with oil flowing through the system and being stored, even if the wells won't be producing at full rate during the startup period.

Hmm. Departure of another longtime contributor. Interesting. Can't say I always agreed with him (in fact we had frequent disagreements), but he often posted oil industry instight that could have been useful to others.

The 'quality' of this BB has certainly diminished over the last year or so, but I guess that's not surprising during a period where there's not much in the way of exciting news happening.

I wonder where (on which BB) Wellwell will resurface, and under what pseudonym. Lemonfool, maybe? I know he won't be able to stay quiet for long (!) and his style is easily recognised.

LS,

Thanks for the link. However

"Sounds like he's reading from his notes, and being very careful with what he says"

Can't be sure I agree with you there. To me it sounds like he's just waffling, and not saying anything informative at all. Looking forward to his interview with Dr T, though. Hoping he'll maybe let the good Doctor get a word in edgewise, for a change...

el19,

" any huge surge with individual milestones being delivered is not likely to happen until eps details out. But you may be right, and I could have got hold of the wrong end of the stick..wouldn't be the first time on financial stuff :-)"

OK, let's call it quits! You mentioned 'offshore', so I guess we might both be people talking about stuff which is far from our professional expertise. Not that that makes us dummies, either....

el19,

"AD, really? so they don't take big premiums for call options then?"

Getting waay out of my sphere of expertise, I'm afraid. Prefer to stick to drilling.

And btw, thanks for your further reply, which nevertheless I do understand to some extent.

However, (and in the light of it), I still don't see MM's as 'loading up' on actual shares which would register as a buy / sell just to fulfill an option for a third party trader. An option is not (yet) a trade.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

el19,

" imo MMs loading up for a big buyer with options on hur."

That's not what MMs do. Brokers, maybe...

Our (now hopefully departed) deramper wrote:

" I do not see Colter being resurrected for many years"

I don't know about years, but the thing is, Corallian have always said they won't be returning, so this isn't news. What they have obtained is valuable LWD data on Colter (both south and north), from which a potential further 'appraiser' can decide whether or not to make a bid to buy the block-lease from them. As for 'commerciability', that will no doubt be up to such a bidder (should one emerge) to decide. Probably basing such decisions on feasability and economics of tapping into Colter from existing infrastructure, such as the Wytch Farm multiple wellpad, onshore.

15 million bbl potential isn't something to be sniffed at, after all.