Member Info for adoubleuk

Wellwell,

" Why HUR has not updated the market as to the reasons for the failure (and I don't care if it was BW's operation) I'll never fully understand or certainly appreciate anyway."

C'mon, man, behave yourself. Your perpetual negative parries at the HUR management get boring, you know.

So far as we know, there have been two actual 'attempts' at hookup, admittedly preceded by a rather peculiar 'trial run' about which we know little. Both the 'attempts' unfortunately failed, and were duly RNS'd: the first due to a 'snagged rope', and the second because of a 'rope failure'. What more do you want? What the rope snagged on the first time? Whether the failure was due to the rope being damaged by the sharp beak of a giant squid?

The latter (were it true) might have made for interesting reading, sure, but personally I don't believe that what you call 'the market' is at all interested in such detail. Other than a tiny percentage of 'lunatic shipwatchers' (thanks, AS!), I doubt that anyone cares if the failure was caused by a squid or abrasion against the Squiffer Bracket, end even less of them would understand what that might mean, anyway.

Also, that's all past history. What's interesting is what's happening NOW, and we can't see it because the AM's 'invisible' to we penny-pinchers who haven't got satellite viewing (at great expense) and so on.

On which subject, I agree that the boat won't have 'turned off' its AIS, but the idea of being on 'radio silence' (including AIS VHF) isn't impossible. I note that the last position of the GS dates from about 20 hours ago, as well. Other local shipping has had enough notice to stay clear, and they'll be seeing things on their radar anyway.

"Visit the 'coverage' section of the 'aishub' website to see on a map how few AIS stations there are that far north, and how the coverage drops off."

Nevertheless...

There are plenty of other vessels quite nearby showing recent updates (like a few minutes ago). Draw whatever conclusions you like.

Btw, Grampian Conquest is to the SE making 11 kt, heading for Lancaster...

Can't help noticing that NS Elida (supply boat) has just sailed past pretty near to the AM on her way south to Aberdeen from Glen Lyon. Guess they wanted a close-up look!

Right (said Zebedee), time for bed...

PS... despite only being 'youtube quality', listen over the finest system youve got, and if headphones or earpieces, hold your hands over them and press, so the bass-line comes through properly.

... In fact it's just occurred to me that 'Althea is almost a slow - waltz. Almost.

Wulbert,

I wondered whether to reply to you last weekend, but didn't. And now feel like doing so. This is quite O/T, and about music, not Ferraris. But I'm home from a fast 80-mile hammer up the motorway from Royan and a disastrous (for me) poker-game with a GD concert (Nassau 1986) at full blast on the stereo, and it came to mind.

"I've never really understood the attraction of the Grateful Dead. My best pal likes them and I once knew an oil worker who was mental about them. But then, I've never really given the music a chance. Superficially, it just sounds to me like electric country "

VERY superficially! Sure, there are 'country' influences, but that tends to just be the songs that radio stations will play!

"Is it the quality of the lyrics that marks them out?"

NO. (cf above.) The GD were above all musicians, and unique and highly acomplished people, but quite early in their career, two 'lyricists' got onboard. Robert Hunter and John Barlow (now both deceased). Robert 'composed' with Jerry Garcia, John with Bob Weir. The whole thing interwieved: sometimes the 'lyricists' wrote words to fit a musical idea, others were the other way round. But neither Robert nor John could be considered 'songwriters' as such.

"my friend told me that they would actively encourage "boootlegging" by allowing fans to set up their home recording gear near the sound desk to get a good tape"

And some were even allowed to plug into the board itself. This is why the GD is probably the most recorded 'rock band' (which is a minomer) ever. I personally have over 120 CD's of their stuff, plus 30+ vinyls. No two concerts were the same.

"I'll give them a whirl."

I recommend that. Play it loud (unless it's accoustic stuff). But not 'loud' in the way heavy-metal bands are 'loud'. The band (and especially the sound people they worked with and were part of the 'family') sought for accoustic perfection, so each instrument and vocal could be 'picked out' without the whole thing turning into a sort of noisy mush.

I've got a good stereo in my car, but when the GD is playing, it's on top volume. Even something like this, kind of 'quiet' compared with other stuff, but nevertheless to be played loud:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eL2_Mdc_NfI

A sorrowful ballad about lost love. (Yeah, must admit wondering why I was on the road without my erstwhile co-driver, except I know why.) Sure, the sound quality of youtube is dreadful, and on face value the song's terribly simplistic. But check out both the words and the music.

Unique.

winalot,

"Is anyone of the opinion that hookup could take place as soon as she arrives?"

I've been keeping my distance from all this discussion recently, and especially the 'weatherwatch' part of it. Howevever, your questin piques my interest, especially having just got back home from doing other things, immediately looking at where the boat is on the AIS, and so on.

Let's remember that the new rope is of an upgraded spec, with an additional outer protective sheath, presumably to prevent abrasion damage to the rest of the actual load-bearing stuff further in.

(And if that makes things sound complicated, it's not over-exageration: this isn't 'any old piece of rope'. Anyone who uses hi-tech ropes, not just in big offshore situations, but maybe just for climbing or caving or four-wheel driving knows what such kit is about. Or they dam well ought to, as they may be trusting their lives to it.)

I've got a sneaky suspicion that there may be an 'attachment' to the buoy quite soon, maybe while the sea-state is still outwith that dictated for actual pull-in and latching. But leaving everything 'slack', and without taking actual tension on the line. Obviously with things 'slack', the rope may be bumping against the bottom of the hull and so on, but the extra sheath will protect it. Doing so will save time, and then, should the seas become 'just right', then they take tension and start the actual pull-in.

And of course, that's all guesswork. But I'll be looking at the AIS almost as soon as I wake up this afternoon!

DC,

"TO leader should be on the move by Monday as the three AHTS are shown as available from Tuesday, but yes a yard visit looks a near certainty as there is nothing yet showing in requirements for the anchor connection on Warwick."

Also the tugs are on charter to Enquest. So they'll take her into the yard, then tugs on hire to Hurricane will take her to the field.

Cebo,

OK, now showing 'underway' at 4 kt. They haven't changed the destination on the AIS yet, through.

Cebo,

I think Thestreet has been out of his Y-fronts lately, but didn't aim very well, poor chap. Mentioned something about 'filling his boots'.

Cebo,

I've got MT showing here still at anchor as of three minutes ago.

"That’s the coastal forecast not Lancaster BD."

Nevertheless one can sometimes tell by coastal conditions what things must be like further out. I'm just back from Chatelaillon as usual. A place about 1000 miles south (as the crow flies) of WoS, but exposed to the Atlantic (look it up on a map). It's wild and woolly there, with the beach threatening to come in the front door of the casino once again. Something's driving that, and that 'something' is pretty powerful, maybe far away in midocean. Definitely not the sort of weather I'd want to put to sea in.

Guess we'll see...

Cebo,

In your post addressed to Wellwell (he of the seven million or so shares) you wrote:

"I do however share you concerns about the Giant Squid."

I'm glad to see that this BB has returned to discussion of serious operational matters which may affect the likelihood of a successful hookup in the not-too-distant future.

Earlier, Cpel1 wrote:

"For this rise someone knows something."

(Referring to today's SP movement, I assume.)

I wonder, could it be that one of those mysterious 'tugs and special craft' (which can only be identified if one's paid for the satellite service) has finally managed to see off the Giant Squid? Persuaded it to go and wrap its tentacles around Solan, or something like that? Do we have a 'Squid Window' at last?

The battle's halfway won, if that's the case.

...and IvaP's question!

Genghis,

Thanks! I have a copy of that in printed form, but forgot to refer to it when writing my own reply! Hopefully it answers JiffyBag's question.

This serves as a reminder that there are a lot of documents available on the company website which should really be considered essential reading for all shareholders.

Jiffybag,

"Hello Adouk,

I have an 'On Topic question' fora change for you, if I may tonight."

I feel flattered that you addressed this to me! However my lines of expertise are drilling and well-related, along with geology, logistics, and so on. Your questions are production-related, so really I can only give fairly shot-in-the dark answers to them, based on overall understandings, not being a 'production expert.

Cebo and Biffadog have already provided some good replies to you, so all I can do is add my three ha'pence worth!

I think that if one wanted to really nit-pick, 'first oil' would have to be defined as the moment when stabilised crude oil starts flowing into the FPSO's storage tanks after having gone through the production train. But again, why not when the first well is 'opened up' and hydorcarbons enter the flowline? It's all a matter of semantics, really.

I'm not sure what definition Hurricane will use. I suspect, however, that they won't announce 'first oil' until the first well has been producing at a stabilised rate for some amount of time, maybe 24 hours or more. This would make sense, because there would me no point in starting production and announcing it immediately, only to find some glitch in the system and having to shut down again.

In fact, I don't see how the final stages of comissioning can occur without having live hydrocarbons running into and through the system. But then, when a flame might be seen at the flare stack, it won't necessarily mean a first oil RNS will appear the following day.

I've no idea how long comissioning will take, but the consensus ballpark figure appears to be a matter of a few weeks or so, which sounds about right.

The time taken to achieve a stabilised 17,000 bbl / day will be entirely dependent on the production team's control of the wells, Hurricane's 'experementation' planning, and so on. There is no doubt a detailed and planned schedule for this, but I have no doubt that production control inputs will be dictated by results observed during earlier stages, just like any good scientific experiment. Change one parameter and one parameter only, and observe the result before moving on to the next step. So being honest, it's not possible to make an accurate guess as to how long that will take.

I think it would be fair, though, to anticipate a number of weeks, maybe two or three months, before we see full stabilised production rates being delivered.

You have PM.

All sorts of divergent posts on this BB.

Personally now (if anyone's interested) I'm simply waiting, without buying nor selling, for the annual financial report, which should come at the end of June. Sure, CF may or may not be selling their holding, but if that were the case, why not put the 'offer' at a higher price? I personally feel that 'blaming' the stagnant SP on there being a 'big seller' around is poppycock. What shareholders want to see is a positive financial situation, and in what way they, the shareholders, are going to see a return on their investment, with profit.

And having cash inflow from California to the company does not equal 'monetization', nor does it equal a positive return to shareholders. Yet.

This is why I've ticked the 'opinion' box as 'hold'. And am ignoring the 'fill yer boots' brigade enormously. Why should I put more of my ready cash into something which has so far yielded me less than one percent profit over the last year? (And in fact it hasn't yielded even that, because I haven't sold, yet.)

DC (and other 'weatherwatchers'),

"If the Jet Stream is responsible for current weather conditions the last week of the month could see some improvement."

OK, if you say so.

However, although I admire your diligence, I don't think that Bluewater nor Hurricane are going to be relying on public-access weather-forecasting sites to decide as to whether they should set sail again. Sure, they might be (almost certainly are) consulting such sites, but then will be actually on the phone to the people who compile them, to check on the accuracy and so on.

Plus right now, it appears that the weather all the way down the western european seaboard is fickle, to say the least. It's school holidays in France (or just has been), and the seaside town of Chatelaillon (where I go to play poker) has witnessed three weekends with completely different weather. And of course, being a seaside town, the local commerces are very weather-dependent.

One was calm, unseasonably warm, and sunny. The next it was an absolute storm (sand from the beach getting blown / washed into the carpark behind the casino, 100m from the seafront.) The last one dismal and vaguely windy, with showers. Not many people out of doors: some restaurants which had opened earlier decided not to this time, that weekend.

It's no different here.

I reckon a lot of posters might do worse than to pass their time re-reading one of Shakespear's 'easiest' theatre-scripts, which used to be a standard for English 'O' levels. 'The Merchant of Venice'. Full of all sorts of useful concepts and 'ways-to-look-at-things', even if I guess these days it's considered non-PC.

But one day, our boat WILL come in, (or rather latch-up and shortly thereafter start offloading precious cargo), and the naysayers will have to eat their hats.

papajoe,

"I have a feeling that they still might be doing work on Colter. Rigs still there!"

The 'completion of drilling' RNS was released last Thursday, so we can safely assume actual 'completion was sometime on Wednesday, maybe in the evening. Then come plug & abandon operations, backloading of equipment and unused supplies (etc), preparation for tow, and jacking down to 'afloat' mode, the latter being dependent on sea state and boat availability.

All of which takes time. Given that the RNS was published, it's unlikely that any further downhole work is being done, other than P&A.