Member Info for adoubleuk

JayKay,

"Err, that was my first point, one beer too many? ;o)"

My apologies, yes, so it was!

But not one beer too many, otherwise I wouldn't have finished where I did in the card game.

Nevertheless, it's a point worth repeating and underlining again and again. That big blue boat, all the infrastructure, the ongoing logistics, supply boats, rock-dumping,getting a partner for GWA, etcetera etcetera etcetera didn't get magic'd out of nowhere. It wasn't a result of having some 'friends' on Facebook.

Hey!

I've just finished second in my usual little late-night online poker tournament, so having swiftly banked the money am in a good mood.

And as usual when in a good mood and with a celebratory glass of beer in my hand, my mind turns to some rather silly thoughts.

It'll soon be May 1st. A pagan festival when one celebrates all sorts of pagan things in the merriest way possible. Thanking the pagan gods that one's made it through another winter, and good things are to come. Or as a friend of olden days from the University of South Carolina put it (using an 'ancient' saying from his neck of the woods), "Hooray, hooray, outdoor screwing starts today!".

So I have a suggestion.

Next Wednesday (May 1st) everyone with anything POSITIVE to say about Hurricane and is a 'regular poster' REMAINS OFFLINE. And just leaves the board to the trolls and other naysayers.

(Unless a flare is seen that day, or an RNS posted.)

C'mon, guys an' gals! It'd be an interesting experiment. And it'd be interesting logging in at midnight (after all our wassailing and whatever) to see how the trolls and nay-sayers behave when there's nobody sensible around that they can wind up.

JayKay,

Excellent post.

But you've forgotten some things.

Capital is moving elsewhere than O&G because of climate change issues. Though this didn't prevent Hurricane making a record-breaking fundraise for an AIM-listed O&G company a couple of years ago.

(Oh yeah, I guess that was before a 16-year-old Swedish schoolgirl appeared on the scene. Maybe now things are different.)

Hurricane is a 'non-perfoming share'.

Despite the fact that the SP is about 20% higher than it was at that last big fundraise, and according to the latest financials there is no reason to believe that the company will be reaching for their 'begging bowl' at any time in the forseeable future as drilling is being carried and positive cashflow is imminent.

Despite the fact that the cash 'loss' over the last financial year INCLUDES that held in escrow against the convertable options, but there's still 89 million in the bank, with no debt.

Etcetera, etcetera.

What would make me really laugh would be if Kerogen tried a hostile takeover of Crystal Amber... It ain't impossible.

Longwait,

"I never could understand comments along the line of, ' No, HUR won't go into production; they're going to be taken over.'"

No, me neither, and that's on record on this BB. The company has always talked partnerships, or even selling-of of assets, but nothing more.

Of course there have always been people talking takeover of the company at some phenomenal price, because it's a nice way of 'ramping' the SP.

Funny the way such rumours were at their greatest in early 2017...

Hurricane's running the EPS and is Operator for the GWA. They've always said that they won't be Operator for GLA FFD, and as we now know, Spirit will be Operator for GWA FFD.

No turn-arounds nor hypocysy there that I can see...

Nigwit,

"‘On the sidelines’ means they are waiting for better data."

Maybe.

Or maybe it means they don't understand what's happening so don't want to commit themselves to comment.

Investors Chronical is to 'investing' (which should include trading) as Gardeners Weekly is to actually getting out one's spade and planting some stuff.

Longwait,

"Unless I am mistaken, Double, following that last fund raise, the price fell to 24 p, and I averaged down just before it bottomed."

Yes, you're right. The mid-30's just stuck in my head because that was the fundraise price. My memory of that period is a bit hazy 'coz I'd done a big sell just immediately after the 'warrents issue' spike and was too busy buying back in at the upper 20's and low 30's to be really bothered about what the actual price was!

MCB55,

"A HOLD is not negative, it is hedging bets until more information becomes available.......etc.."

Excellent post.

And as you've pointed out, IC has remained 'hold' while the SP has risen from 38p (when that journals adopted that stance) to a recent high of 54p.

So some people have obviously been buying, and ignoring what the IC 'advises' ! People who probably don't pay subscriptions to financial magazines in the naïve assumption that the paid hacks can do their thinking for them.

Nigwit,

"Investors Chronicle were bullish until the last fundraising but reduced to hold as a response to it. They’ve held this position since. "

More bloody fools them, in that case. At the last fundraising, the SP reduced to the 30's, following the 67p spike a couple of months earlier. The SP is now in the mid to high 40's.Will IC suddenly recommend 'buy' when we're back in the 50's again?

" I'm sure you are a good guy SIPP, and most times think quite rationally" (Quoth Irene Krapp).

...Except when he goes to the shoe shop!

:-D

AquaeSulis,

"Hurricane continues to monitor the developing
risks that climate change poses to the Group,
and continues to monitor the developing policy
environment at national and international level"

Yes. I've read most of the report, but quickly, 'cos it's a very dense document. Regarding the 'risks', I concentrated on those where the 'riskometer' has increased, which includes the above point.

And if we listen to too many 16-year-old schoolgirls, at some point the buoy anchor chains may need to be lengthened to compensate for rising sea levels. I hadn't thought of this before, and that will surely be a complicated and expensive job. Maybe I should reconsider my investment strategy as a consequence...

gumbo007,

"For this (WN) to be declared a duster there would have to be some serious fuk ups"

Yes, I agree with you. But (speaking as an oilfield professional) no well can be declared a 'success' until it's been drilled, successfully logged, and preferably tested. Maybe a 'duster' sounds like a harsh word, but I prefer it to euphemisms lake 'marginally successful' and stuff like that.

MCB55,

"Neither gas to GT's nor proving the offloading is on critical path to FOIL!"

I would submit that it is, in that proving that both systems are working properly will be integral to 'signing off' on the boat before it goes on dayrate.

It was our buddy Cebo who postulated that some sort of 'dummy offload' might have to be done, and I take his word for it, because he knows a lot more about FPSO's than I do. But also (this just occured to me today), it's maybe not impossible that such a 'dummy run' may have been done in the Cromarty Firth with the Grampian Sovereign acting as 'tanker'! But that's just a wild guess.

However getting the GT's running on gas can't have been done in advance. It happens that I have a source whose business is Gas Turbines, and in fact knows exactly what work was done on them (those on the Aoka Mizu) in Dubai! And I spent about an hour with him on the phone a few weeks ago having the 'commissioning to gas' explained to me. And it's not just a few hours' work.

The company has told us how FoiL is defined, and that's also when the boat goes on dayrate. For six years minimum, remember. And six years' dayrate works out to be a lot of money. So FoiL won't be 'declared' until all the boat's systems (including power generation) have been fully 'signed-off' as working properly.

shedful,

"When then?"

Before the end of June, one hopes.

I don't know why I'm bothering to tell you this, because it's already public knowledge so you could have found it out yourself. Maybe just because I'm usually a nice guy and I'm in a better mood than last night. But the company is defining 'FoiL as when both wells are online and producing at a stable rate, at which point an RNS. However this will be a while after hydrocarbons first start being taken onboard, and there's a strong hint that that may be RNS'd as well.

That 'first hydrocarbons' could be any day now, or maybe a week, or two. We just don't know.

Another poster has said that there will be word from the drilling rig first, regarding Warwick deep. I disagree, because the next RNS on that subject will be about the DST test, so anything up to 45 days hence or so.

shedful,

"Will foil be this month?"

No.

MCB55,

" The only infield commissioning would be leak testing the buoy connections, end to end and function testing of subsea control systems and finally the final function test of all shutdown/safety systems. "

I can't help feeling you're oversimplifying things a bit. Part of commissioning (but once hydrocarbons have started flowing) will be bringing the GT's onto gas as a fuel, which is probably something of a juggling act, and won't have been done in Dubai or the Firth. Plus the other day Cebo mentioned a possible 'dummy offload' to check all of that. Plus once the first well is flowing, the system becomes 'dynamic', which is a different beast from the conditions checked out through static pressure-tests.

But I'd agree with your overall message, that being 'any day now'. Or maybe a couple of weeks. We just don't know.

JackDiamonds,

"“Cashflow will be good for the company, but won't move the SP.”

That’s a new one for me !!"

But we've just seen it! W.Brentwood is now online, admittedly not yet at optimum rate, so this means there is cashflow, even if we don't have the figures yet. But what has that news done to the SP? Sweet FA.

Maybe I was wrong to use the word 'binary', because in this stocks an' shares game there are always three choices: buy, sell, or continue to hold. But when one's already holding, buy or sell become the only two decisions remaining other than just maintaining the status quo.

Personally I bought into RBD because I'd heard of the Colter well. Which as we know has turned out to be a bit parson's egg. Not a disaster, but not headline news, neither, and I reckon it'll be a long time before the BoD can 'monetise' on that one: ie see a return on their investment. We've had good news from California, unexpectedly good, in fact, but has it shifted the SP? No.

So for me, the crux point is now W.Newton. Sure, I'm not naïve or daft, and there's the nasty chance it could turn out to be a duster. And if that happens I won't be surprised if the SP slips badly with people (myself included) facing a loss. But the interesting thing will be watching what happens to the SP in the event of success. In my opinion, if it's success but the SP doesn't reflect that, it'll be decision time, because there'll be no real reason to suppose that a follow-up success in Romania will buck the SP trend we've seen so far.

Sorry if this sounds gloomy, and I'm not trying to 'deramp' this share.But let's face it, the SP's remaining stagnant, which means I'm not making any money. And that's the only reason I'm playing in this game to start with.

SIPP,

" They will not be rushing to get the bareboat charter in place or any bonuses on upped production."

No, you're correct in that, but at the same time they won't be dawdling! Becoming 'fully operational' as soon as possible will be uppermost in everyone's mind. But without 'cutting any corners'.

Sometimes the scale of the 'toys' can be overwhelming to people unused to such stuff (and I know you've seen both the boat and the buoy), but the 'management' of such systems is quite similar (as you said) to launching a space rocket or safely operating a nuclear power station. Checklists, sub-checklists, and sub-checklists of those. Only when one box is ticked does one move onto the next step, and if for some reason a box can't be ticked, the problem is identified and fixed before moving on.

The thing being, at this point in time with commissioning and so on, battling Mother Nature is not part of the equation. It's pure nuts and bolts work. Unlike drilling, where 'surprises' are bound to crop up. Nevertheless it's complicated stuff and the work couldn't be done by monkeys or robots.

Of course there will be a theoretical time schedule for performance all of the necessary tasks, but it'll be flexible, in that fixing problems that prevent boxes being ticked adds to the overall time required, and the companies involved sure as heck aren't going to publish such schedules!

Hurricane's repeatedly said FoiL in H1, continues to say they're on time for that, and the end of H1 is only eight and a half weeks away. Two months. And that's essentially nothing when compared with the years it's taken to get to this point in the road.

yellow1242,

Thanks for posting the link, 'cos looking for updates is now pretty low on my personal priorities, because RBD is no longer like watching the grass grow, but whether it's growing at all.

Because really, what the update tells us is nothing new for anyone whose been in this share for any length of time and keeping themselves updated with news.

Personally I'd like to hear a bit more about 'exit strategies' and 'monetization'.

I'm going to hang on here until the W.Newton result comes, and then make a binary hold / sell decision. Because if W.Brentwood and Monroe Swell profits (?) are just going to go into more drilling, I won't be interested. Cashflow will be good for the company, but won't move the SP.

artyth,

"I can’t have anyone dissing Malcy, He’s a supporter. He’s one of us."

I beg to differ. Malcy is not 'one of us' as supposedly he doesn't own shares in the companies he discusses.

Doesn't stop him from being a paid spokesman for them, though.

Malcy is a Mercenary Mouth.

2kally,

"bit of a rant there AD"

Yeah, but why not? Just been knocked out of my habitual late-night online poker tournament without hitting the pay, so I'm in that sort of mood! :-((

And the inanity of today's posts by someone whose pseudonym begins with N and ends with T have got me right annoyed.

As has my dispair on reading that the floor of the House of Commons was opened to some opinionated underage (in voting terms) Scandinavian bint. I wonder if she gave Jeremy Corbyn a gift of pickled Herring?

Still, I should calm down and stop complaining. A 5% rise in the SP which has managed to stay in place for the day can't be a bad thing, and puts a smile on this bitter and twisted grumpy old keyboard-bashing man's face!