Cornish Metals Share Price (TIN)

This one I have:

For such a quotidian element, tin has played an outsized role in the march of history: tools in the Bronze Age, canning food to fuel Napoleon’s armies and, now, as a “compute metal” integral to AI servers.

That last of these explains why average tin prices have doubled since 2003, to about $49,000 a tonne. It is the least traded base metal on the London Metal Exchange, with average daily volumes just a few per cent those of copper, but speculators began joining in at the end of last year — to such an extent that in Shanghai the national industry body stepped in to warn them off.

AI is famously hungry for compute power and energy. But it also depends on soldering bits of metal together, and it is tin that does the soldering. Racks, power modules and networking switches: all component parts require glueing.

That hangs, in turn, on a supply chain that traverses some of the world’s riskier corners. Nearly three-quarters of tin is mined in just three countries, of which the biggest, China, is a net importer. Mines across the border in northern Myanmar, a semi-autonomous region riven with conflict, are hounded by logistical and other obstacles and have yet to resume pre-disruption levels of production.

Indonesia meanwhile has slowed export licence renewals, clamped down on illegal smelting and plans to double its maximum cut to 20 per cent. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, another mining source, conflict and disease are eroding production.

Billiton, now part of mining company BHP, owes its genesis to tin — discovering and mining the metal in the then-Dutch East Indies — but the industry titans have largely sloughed off any interest in the metal. Investing in producers of any scale is therefore difficult.

True, higher prices are prompting some miners to take up their shovels. Aim-listed Cornish Metals seeks to reopen a UK mine in mid-2028, by which time it will have stood idle for three decades; the US may even funnel some funds its way. 

Governments have also woken up to the importance of tin, although worries about supply security are more typically reserved for polysyllabic rare earth metals. Unlike these, tin actually is pretty rare; there is about 50 times less in the Earth’s crust than there is zinc. The UK has gone so far as to place tin on its critical minerals list.

Expect more efforts on recycling too: on current miners’ expectations there is only 14 or 15 years’ worth of tin in the ground. For sure, there will be volatility on the way. But prices look set to keep trending higher - and, as already happened with microchips, those who rely on tin for more mundane electronics will find AI an opportunity that cuts both ways.

Anybody got premium subscription to the FT who could paste today’s article. How tin went from baked beans to AI gravy train. It should be more interesting

Second part of Times article from 12th May - advice from Tempus was to hold

next few months will be critical as the project needs to raise a further $161 million, or about £120 million, from investors. Once completed this will allow the funds from last week’s $210 million Nordic bond issue to be released. When combined, the money will be in place to take the project all the way to production in two years’ time.The company itself has put a conservative estimate for the tin price at $33,900 a tonne, which would value the project at about £180 million, or 144p a share. Applying the current tin price at $55,000, that would rise to £500 million, or 400p a share. Peel Hunt, the broker, has put a current estimate of 213p a share if the life of the mine can be extended once production starts successfully. The project is the real deal, with permits in place, backed by the UK government, industry veterans and the local council. There is also a strategic need for more tin supplies outside of Asia, and a market expected to drive demand for tin for the next decade.It would be an incredible achievement for the UK to return tin mining to the region and the progress of bringing back an abandoned flooded mine is admirable. Nostalgia, though, should never be a driving force in investment decisions. We’d keep an eye on this one until the final fundraising has been completed this summer and if tin prices remain high.

Advise; Hold

Recent scientific analysis has shown that tin mined in Cornwall was used in bronze across the Mediterranean 3,000 years ago. Today, Cornish Metals is making good progress on bringing the mine at South Crofty back into production for the first time since 1998. Listed on London’s junior Aim market, this is a high-risk prospect but one that has some serious backers. The project has recently been gathering pace. An equity raise of £57 million at the start of last year brought in £18.1 million from Vision Blue Resources, which now holds 29 per cent, and was anchored by the UK National Wealth Fund, which committed £28.6 million for a 28 per cent stake.Vision Blue Resources is the investment fund headed by Sir Mick Davis, who was the boss of the mining group Xstrata before it was sold to Glencore in 2013. His focus is now on all minerals and resources required for renewable energy and battery power. Tin is an essential ingredient in the solder required for nearly all electrical equipment. China currently has a stranglehold on world tin mining, as there is no production in North America or Europe. The price of tin has risen nearly 45 per cent so far this year, to $55,000 a tonne, and is more than three times the $18,000 a tonne it was six years ago. The mine at South Crofty struggled after the tin price collapsed to about $4,000 a tonne in 1985, where it remained for the next two decades.It is hoped that the mine could start production in mid-2028 and when fully operational it should produce 4,700 tonnes a year and at an operating cost of $13,400 a tonne, according to Fawzi Hanano, Cornish Metals’ chief development officer. The current investment case has been made with a tin price of $33,900 a tonne, and a mine life of 14 years. But Hanano believes the useful life could be extended well beyond that as mining begins and new reserves are found.It is hoped that the mine could start production in mid-2028 and when fully operational it should produce 4,700 tonnes a year and at an operating cost of $13,400 a tonne, according to Fawzi Hanano, Cornish Metals’ chief development officer. The current investment case has been made with a tin price of $33,900 a tonne, and a mine life of 14 years. But Hanano believes the useful life could be extended well beyond that as mining begins and new reserves are found.Large-scale mine investments are always fraught with risk for equity investors. The struggles of the Sirius Minerals potash development in North Yorkshire, now owned by Anglo American, live long in the memory.That said, the opportunity here is not as speculative as it seems — the permits to remove water from the mine are agreed and pumping is well under way. Mining permits are agreed until 2071 and local interests are also aligned, with Cornwall council providing a grant for £4.2 million towards stores and workshop buildings that are due to be completed on site in June.

Cornish Metal are sharing this on LinkedIn - so I assume the article is positive :-)

https://www.thetimes.com/business/markets/article/should-you-buy-shares-cornish-metals-tempus-85kr5rsp3