TI Fluid Systems Share Price (TIFS)

Voting on the takeover is set for Feb 5th. Mystified at the 3% discount when there's only a month to go.

No - fair enough comment and I may do the same as 3% uplift is'nt much. As regards MBerry - well you'll find that she never gets it wrong, sells at the top and buys at the bottom . Her/his/its strategy is nothing special - the mantra of trim to win, add rinse and repeat is quite meaningless. If a stock goes up she sells a portion of what she bought and awaits a downturn to buy back - wow! There's an idea - wish I'd thought of it. When challenged by me ( in Wood Group) about his/her endless success at not making a loss he/she explained that even when she has completly sold out of a stock at a profit - the next time she buys into the same one she counts the previous profit as still standing and being a buffer against losses that might be incurred on that purchase. Well OK if you want to do that, but in effect means you never have realised a given profit as profit or a loss as a loss - hence superhuman success....not.

Everyone:

Within an hour of my post at 09:34 on Friday 29 Nov'24 I sold my TIFS at 10:30 for a bit below 192.5. The risk of ABC's bid conditions not being satisified is very low, but as I expected and if I remember correctly as other people commenting here on London and South East and on ADVFN have said, the price will creep up slowly to just under 200p in the next few months as the date for completion of the takeover approaches. There's no point in holding on for an almost guaranteed uplift of about 3.5% to 4% from 192.5 if I think I can make more money by dealing in other stocks in the same period. Right now TIFS is about 193.2 to 193.4 so if I'd held until today I'd have been able to sell for about 1p more.

I said in my 29 Nov'24 comment that I'd keep TIFS until I needed the money for something but I didn't expect to hold for long as I was looking seriously at Direct Line ("DLG") for whom Aviva had made a cash-and-shares offer, and if I sat on my hands for long I'd miss the boat if Aviva raise their offer from what was then worth a bit under 250p per share to 265p. When I wrote that comment DLG were 226.5p. I continued watching them. About 45 minutes later, at about 10:25 am, DLG hit 230 without trickling back so at 10:30 am I sold TIFS. DLG's spread was something like 230.2 to 230.8. To buy 500 DLG, Interactive Investor was giving me a price at the top end of the spread but for a minute or so it wouldn't give a price for buying 10,000 DLG. At 10:46 am II's offer price on the spread was below 231, but all quotes to buy 10,000 were in excess of 231 and as much as 231.2. Eventually II gave a price to buy10,000 which was more than the offer price on the spread. At 10:46:37 I bought 10,500 for just under 231.45 each.

My hesitation between 9:35 and 10:30 led to me paying about 5p more per DLG share than the price at 9:30, i.e a total of about £525 more than I'd have paid an hour or so earlier. This week there have been opportunities to buy DLG for less than I paid, especially on Monday and/or Tuesday when at times the offer price was below 229. However, waiting until this week to buy carried the risk of missing out on a big price rise were Aviva to increase their offer last weekend before I bought. Most people expect an higher offer.

Right now, DLG is 237.0 to 237.2 up about 0.2p from yesterday's close, and Aviva is 487.6 to 487.8, up about 7.2p from yesterday's close. This week Aviva's share price has been recovering since it fall after the bid an

Gruyere, re: your 29 Nov'24 post

I see that MaryBr190 comments a lot on the London and South East chat boards for many of the stcoks in which I'm interested. (By interested, I mean stocks that I follow rather than the few in which either I am, or I have been, invested.) On the assumption that her reports on her investment and trading activities sare true she (I assume that MaryBr190 is a woman) does seem to get the timing of her dealings right.

You're listening to Mary Berry? Dear oh dear oh dear.

There was an announcement on the RNS at 07:00:05 that the takeover is going ahead at 200p per share, subject of course to the typical standard conditions. The proposal to proceed via a scheme of arrangement requires shareholders' meetings and an application for a court order so completion of the takeover and delisting of TIFS shares will take place in about three or four months. The share price is currently about 192.5p to reflect (i) the risk that the condtions won't be satisfied and (ii) the period from now until when shareholders who hold to the end get their £2 per share if the takeover goes ahead.

A huge flurry of transactions in the first 30 minutes of trading today gives the impression that lots of private investors have sold some or all of their holdings.

The share price is down from the open (and high for today) of 193.8p. I expect that it might continue to trickle down a bit during the course of today and maybe next week too.

Although I don't expect a rival bid from a third party, I intend to hold my TIFS until I need the money for something but I probably won't hold for long because I'm looking seriously at Direct Line for which Aviva have made an offer. If I sit on my hands for long I'll miss the boat if they raise their cash-and-shares offer from a value which is currently worth a bit under 250p per share to 265p per share in which case Direct Line could go up 10% to 15% from 226.5p right now.

According to a comment at 07:40 today on the Direct Line chat board on London and South East, Aviva might offer as much as 300p. this is the comment:

"MaryBr190

Posts: 10,029

Price: 224.40

Strong Buy

£3 mooted for a K.O. Today 07:40

Under ‘put up or shut up’ takeover rules, Aviva now has until 5pm on Christmas Day to announce a firm bid or walk away. Aviva said that after the rejection of its offer this week, Direct Line had ‘declined to engage further’ with it.

However, it emerged that Aviva chair George Culmer met Direct Line chair Danuta Gray to discuss the offer, appearing to suggest that the latter was open to a deal of some sort.

Yesterday, Direct Line’s management was in talks with shareholders. Some, including Redwheel and Schroders, are also major investors in Aviva.

One top-20 shareholder in the target company told the Financial Times that most investors would probably accept a bid at 300p. Analysts at investment bank KBW also suggested Aviva could make a 300p valuation."