Newmark Security Share Price (NWT)

Given I have made so much noise I thought I ought to further comment on yesterdays trading update.

The confirmation that the business will dispose of Safetell is truly transformational. In the last 10 years all the bad news, negative impact on results and debt has been as a result of this business underperformaning. I wish whoever picks it up all the best but it has not worked in Newmark.

Moving forward the business will be focused on Grosvenor Technology, a business that has been delivering and is growing at 30% CAGR. We don't yet have a breakdown on EPS of GT but my calculations give me around 25p EPS for 2025/26, growing at 30% CAGR. So this year the forward looking EPS will be over 32p and that is a PE of under 4 for a growth business with reoccurring incomes and a market leading position.

Just read the trading update and assume Safetell is sold. How good is HCM?

Wakey wake Mr Market. This is seriously under valued for the actions and profits that are in play.

Great to hear from you FFT.

I like your summary and would add:

- Selling Safetell is huge news and allows as you state to be focused on HCM.

- With no Safetell - The numbers for the new business would be revenues at c£20m and PBT c£2.5m - both growing at 25% GAGR

- Debt is high - but CHIP costs have gone up through the roof (x8) and Safetell disposal surely carry some of that debt.

- Business operations - it is probably cheaper to operate here as an outsource than in the US given the high costs of labour in the US (although with taxes etc perhaps not that big a gap).

- In my view Marie-Claire is doing a good job, and I wouldn't want to rock the boat there until she is open to a smooth transition.

- The lack of an 'EPS' statement is a worry but really all I want to see is the EPS numbers for GT as that is the future and will determine the value of the business moving forward

- Final point - If it was not for Safetell, these results would look amazing and the valuation would be rocketing. That it is the future state we have to look forward to.

Its here ! But why release at 9.30am and not at 7am as everyone else does ?

HCM USA good. HCM ROW not so good (revenue down).

Safetell to be sold, but no cash expected.

It is expected the equity LTIP performance criteria will be revised. Excellent news. I am assuming that the equity LTIP includes the crazy cash LTIP which could see the company bankrupted by being met.

NO EPS mentioned and group net debt has risen by 2.7m to 4.8m . Not healthy and not good. Indicates that free cash flow was fairly rubbish during the year.

My comment is that when safetell is sold and given that 75% of HCM revenue is from USA that there is no reason to have a UK headquarters and a load of money could be saved by closing down the UK HQ and running the whole show from the USA. It would also be the right time for the Dweks to bow out.

NWT's trading update should be here in the next week or two. Here's my summary of what I would like to see:

Trading 2H and fully year 25/26 - I’d like to see the term record 2H trading revenues, and EPS expected to exceed 11.7p.

Outlook - Commentary that 1H 27 will deliver a return a positive EPS and that the business remains in strategic growth mode, underpinning our earnings position.

Strategic Review - A statement regarding the outcome of the strategic review and that costs have already been cut.

Shareholder Value - It would be good to read that the board will be focusing how shareholder returns can be maximised through further cost control, and a phased plan for debt repayment/cashflow management, whilst focusing more attention on the benefits of share price appreciation, share buy backs or re-instating dividends.

So Thalassa have increased their stake adding another 1% from their last disclosure. This is an interesting move given they picked up their previous shares at around the mid 60's. This latest purchase must have come in at between 96-105 (there was a big transaction yesterday at 97 but they will have added at another time without having to disclose). I guess the market maker has again been filling their order so the price is a good one. It is great to see them buying in at this level, it suggests (in my view) that they still see significant upside value at these levels. In fact, we all see the significant value opportunity, and the company has gone far as pointing out the value that is coming at the last results. But until the next trading up date or news it looks as if it remains a waiting game.