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Seems to me Racecourse just does not cut it on a stand alone basis. Further drilling to take place in phase 3. My expectation is that any potential sale to AA or another party will be reliant on the sum of both prospects, neither of which, with current data are economically viable on a stand alone basis. Previously I suggested 1.5MT at very low average grade for RC, I'll be pleasantly surprised if the phase 2 upgraded resource model shows something better than that.
Not a very inspirational read. There's a a fair few weak and moderate words used. It also says they will sit back and take some time to evaluate lol that to me says we arnt getting the new model before the AGM.
Let's hope it's just all delay tactics because Steve is right and we can't declare 2mt as we will lose our potential cafia......I really hope your right Steve.
Agreed, wouldn't get me rushing to buy more shares. But in total still a significant amount of copper and gold across the prospect. Look forward to what Iceberg says.
· A Phase Three drilling programme is under consideration, with aims to;
o define the shallow, high-grade crown in the centre of the Racecourse Prospect;
o identify the extents of the Ascot Prospect;
o target the higher-grade gold intersections at both prospects, especially at shallower depths;
o drill test satellite IP/geochemical anomalies
I point out the last one, looks like I will be seeing a few of you at next year's AGM too.
Now is it because we have a cadia? Or we have to keep looking for more to make this actually sellable? I suppose we will find out when the new model arrives. I've felt a long time anything under 1.5MT from racecourse will be seen as a negative.
John, I agree partially with you - up to 1.5Mt at RC only. However that doesn’t make it uneconomic - we know a long life of mine at low grades can work perfectly well (from the original model results). This amount of copper shouldn’t be seen as a negative.
The RNS today didn’t contain compelling grades by any means but the intention to announce a maiden resource at Ascot is interesting - they wouldn’t do that if it contained negligible amounts. And if it can be mined without having to contribute to capital costs other than pre-stripping of waste, then that’s great.
"Now is it because we have a cadia? Or we have to keep looking for more to make this actually sellable?"
All discussions lead back to this question IMHO. This is the $64,000 question - or should that be $640M question:)
When the model and resource is declared, and after all CB has said, he is going to look a bit silly (yes that is an understatement!) if the Cu tonnage is say, less than 1.3Mt CuEQ.
That said, some may take the view that as we know CB is always optimistic we shoudnt be surprised if his previous implications of 2mt was, as ever, just him being optimistic.
Therefore, why be so critical of CB doing something that we know he always does?
I accept that maybe not everyone would see it that way!
Lets hope that the only surprise here is that CB has under promised and over delivered..for once!
I think some of you may be over-thinking this RNS. CB always said that following completion of phase 2 that the team would stop, sit back and assess what they have before moving on. And to my mind the phase 3 concentration on drilling out the shallow RC crown is to allow a profitable start to any potential buyer while the further holes in Ascot are clearly to find the full extent of that asset. Yes, I'll accept that there are a few mentions of 'weak' mineralization but there is also a comparison to hole 35 which is a strong hole :
"· Subject to laboratory assays, the mineralisation styles intersected were of a similar nature to those intersected in drill hole BRDD-21-035, and offer potential to extend mineralisation with a high copper and gold tenor by up to 100m at depth."
And from the Jan 19th 22 RNS:
· BRDD-21-035 delivered a best interval of 64m at 0.58% CuEq from 552m, within a broader zone of 164m at 0.34% CuEq from 552m (full detail are in Table 1 below).
So, lets not jump to the assumption it's a wet squib just yet.
Surely it requires the assay results to understand the gold grades ?.
Quite a lot to digest in that RNS. My thoughts below:
Hole 47 and 48 - not much to report and again confirming what we have been told in previous RNS that the grade between Racecourse isn't likely strong enough to be economic
Hole 49 seems interesting and potentially adds a lot to Ascot. It starts c500m SW of Hole 35 and the drill looks to be about 300m due South of Hole 35. There are others who can better interpret "hole intersected altered sediments and volcanics with zones of weak to locally strong porphyry related mineralisation throughout from 386m downhole depth to 862m downhole depth." but it looks to have potential to add decent volume and hopefully after assays MT.
Hole 50&51
A) Don't appear so great from description but I guess we need assays to confirm gold.
B)They appear to be from same pad as 35 and similar Westerly azimuth yet there is a surprising statement in the RNS "BRDD-21-035 was drilled sub-optimally towards the west".
C) I can't reconcile the statement about 50 with drill direction "BRDD-22-050 was planned to test a strong IP anomaly to the east of the mineralisation intersected in BRDD-21-035" this doesn't appear to have been successful anyway.
D) Reminder about 35 - decent assays which were fast tracked for 19 Jan. Extract "BRDD-21-035 delivered a best interval of 64m at 0.58% CuEq from 552m, within a broader zone of 164m at 0.34% CuEq from 552m. The mineralisation intersected in BRDD-21-035 is amongst the widest and highest-grade copper-gold intersections recorded to date on the Bushranger Project." - But it was sub-optimal !!!
Hole 52 and 55 seem quite promising about 500m to the West of 35
A) Hole 52 "trace mineralisation was intersected throughout, along with locally weak to moderate zones of mineralisation at between the depths of 112m and 664m." May have achieved objective of proving up shallower mineralisation subject to assays.
B) Hole 55 - I think geo observations not completed unlike other holes so less detail about metres where mineralisation shown but it looks promising "the mineralisation styles interested in BRDD-22-055 were of a similar nature to those observed in drill hole BRDD-21-035 (refer to RNS dated 20 January 2022) and offer the potential to extend this mineralisation by up to 100m at depth in an area with potentially high copper and gold return" (yes 20 Jan is a typo and should be 19 Jan ...)
Bring on the assays ! Oh and it would be nice for 36 to make a long overdue guest appearance.
I agree Lucky that Phase 3 as described has a very wide remit possibly even wider in the final statement "... Phase Three drilling programme which will focus on in-fill and upgrade drilling of the current known resources; resource extension drilling; and testing of further IP/geochemical anomalies outside the Ascot and Racecourse prospects."
On the BZT telegram group this morning, a summary of a call with Colin was posted. A couple of quotes relevant for us:
"In short, the market as we know is in bad shape and any good news wouldn’t move the sp notably. Finance that was on offer previously is now difficult to secure. Because the sp is low it’s difficult to raise."
"Rns worthy news to come but in honesty it’s not going to budge the sp until the market recovers"
That tells us a couple of things. Firstly how fortunate we are to have an income at the moment, which puts us in a far better position than most explorers. Second, Colin knows that 'good news' isn't really helping the share price and won't until the market recovers.
You need some assumptions to see how that affects XTR, but given our income and lack of pressure on finances, it means we can choose to be patient and wait for the market to recover before we issue the 'good news', whether that is FB or BR. As I mentioned a few times, while we are delaying/waiting, we might as well drill and improve the eventual payout.
Agree.... but money is sitting on the sidelines.... removed from market in 1. Typical Sell in May mindset and 2. In expectation of the global recession.
We need to be the shiny coin..... promote all these positives now..... because when the money comes back in it will be selective.....
To quote the bible.... dont hide your light under a bushel
Prediction....... interview today by 2.30pm
I always thought market sensitive news had to be released. Anyway, at least we have good cash income from Manica even if copper in Zambia not looking so great.
https://www.mining.com/web/zambias-growth-target-shaky-as-copper-output-drops-prices-plunge/
Personally I would much rather we focus our resources on an area that we know ie Bushranger, rather than waste time and resources buying new projects in hopeless but geologically appealing countries like Zimbabwe.
The good thing I keep telling myself is, it must be worth drilling if we are going to spend our millions from fairbride on it!! Because if bushranger doesn't turn out to be all that, then we will have no value for shareholders.
Colin must be going for one last whorahh, but I warn you and everyone else, tomorrow is promised to no-one....... so don't take too long as some of us might not see the value!!
"Racecourse & Ascot are prolific in mineralisation"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11078903/CHARLES-PARTON-war-Taiwan-global-catastrophe-China-risk.html
Lucky - I think we need to demand that dividend is paid in gold !!.
So we are not only getting a phase 3 but phase 3 will also be testing further IP/geochemical anomalies outside the Ascot and Racecourse prospects. I thought it wasn't going to be a death of a thousand cuts... has the IP turn up some targets that appear too delicious not to dip a drill in and taste? We need CB to do an interview and fill us in on what appears to be a change of strategy.
Without a clearly communicated end game, I would think XTR is now vulnerable to a buyout. That SP spike of 18 months ago looks out of sight now so brace ourselves for any low ball offers. The forward selling that takes place around the cash raises should indicate that large holders are prepared to accept what appears to be too low a price.
Disappointed that there was no indication of when the model will be issued..... doesn't change the end game but it is disappointing that I still dot know when to buy the popcorn and champagne.
Those attending the AGM should try and push for news on the Racecourse model.
The fizz has definitely gone out of this ATM. I get the feeling CB is making the mistake of spending money and time on a phase 3 drilling programme that has a high likelyhood of a mediocre result. When he said (repeatedly) that this wouldn't be a "death of a thousand cuts" I believed him, now we seem to be falling into the trap of chasing rainbows. The longer it goes on the more it will feel like the XTR of old and that isn't good at all.
I don't many will have the stomach for another 12 months of uncertainty with the SP where it is now, it's bound to slide unless we get an RNS that doesn't consist of average news and kicking the ball down the road.
I've always been an advocate of a few extra months to prove up Ascot etc so we don't under sell RC but out of the thousand cuts I feel we are already up to 900 and enthusiasm in the shareholders is bleeding out as time goes by.
If it carries on in this vein I can see 2p by Xmas and I for one will feel like we missed out on a golden opportunity to make a good few quid in a relatively short period of time. I really hope I'm wrong and we haven't been misled over the last 18 months.
Lets not miss the boat Colin.
Yesterday Steve quoted "The expert has 60 days to say what he thinks the value is using the Valmin method, which includes a DCF model, and Enterprise Value and looks at similar sales in the last five years"
Even if we reach 2m/t, AA could offer a low ball price then use the Valmin method. Given the current copper price, possibly worse next year and similar project sales based on the "last 5 years", is it in our interest to rush a sell. Valuations will not be based on some hypothetical high value of copper in x years time.
CB please just retire FFS.....
I hope I'm wrong, and I maybe, but this is starting to look more likely that the results from phase 1 and 2 have not met CBs implications.
Phase 3 drilling and now including IP outside the Ascot and Racecourse, does seem an attempt to try and find more tonnage to justify his previous comments.
I'm not expecting the RC model to be released for some time.
Less than 3 weeks to the AGM. CB may have a few questions to answer and some clarity required.
I think he may get a harder time there than with the Zak Mir interviews.....
You only have to look at Biden, similar age to Bird, to see clearly that one just can't operate efficiently at such an age. Never mind running, Odin knows, how many companies....
I feel I missed my opportunity to cash in at a higher SP here. Greed clouded my judgement despite knowing all too well the history of truth economics. I see this drifting lower now as it seems there is nothing concrete to gamble all the much awaited FB cash on.
Don't worry guys, we are all in the same boat. Non of us can sell any quantity of shares.
Turn up at the AGM in 3 Weeks, there's no security there either BTW. We can find out how many lashes the board are willing to take?