Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Even the very industry that will be relied upon to delivery the huge rise in copper demand and other battery metals is driving the need for change to a cleaner, more efficient and sustainable alternative to fossil fuels.
Over the decades, global copper production has roughly doubled every 25 years since data started being recorded. To meet the increasing demands for metals has already made the mining industry one of the most energy-intensive industrial sectors. Let alone going into the next few decades of global electrification. According to the International Energy Agency, between 8% and 10% of the world total energy consumption is dedicated to the extraction of materials that society demands, and that number does not take into account metallurgical processes, transport and other mining-related activities.
That is an incredible statistic that I came across, that needs to be reduced in future mining projects if the new discoveries and even previously shelved mines, are going to socially and environmentally acceptable, above being viable.
Certainly one way is through innovations in renewables and battery storage solutions, on site modular electrolysers up to 100MW that convert water to Hydrogen using renewable energy from on site wind and solar power, could well be one solution that will fuel the machines that extract and transfer the ore and also fuel the production processes and facilities.
The industry will need to play its own part too if it is to supply the increasing demand to help the world decarbonise and achieve net-zero. Copper will be at the heart of it all.
Colin with Zak on Friday on one of his other company updates. He speaks openly on copper and china. Stating the Chinese, ‘They couldn’t suppress it for very long , and I see it now creeping forward now at 8.2 8.3 and that’s a very healthy price, and it’ll do for me in any of our projects…………… anything over 8000 in todays economics is a good price.”
It’s a strong signal at least, they are comfortable to actively market Bushranger as implied in year report when modelling is ready for the market after a full phase 2 assessment and evaluation.
Come midweek, that’s August done and dusted, where did that go!? We are talking in weeks not months now to see the results of all the hard work over the past 18 odd months. Finally, where the project sits in terms of scale and the overall quality of the data that will be presented.
So I think from his comments at least it does suggest they are not likely to be dragging their heels to get to that position as was a suggestion that they might do while they wait for copper to recover back up to the levels before the slump.
From 8min30sec
Xtract are not mentioned at any time btw. But his comments above are no doubt toward all his other companies copper projects. Although I can’t help feeling he was thinking of BR to some degree!
https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hdWRpb2Jvb20uY29tL2NoYW5uZWxzLzUwNTExMzMucnNz&episode=dGFnOmF1ZGlvYm9vbS5jb20sMjAyMi0wOC0yNjovcG9zdHMvODE0NjUwOQ%3D%3
* I am not invested in any other Colin bird companies and have only posted the link to support my post.
I dont buy Colin's suggestion that the Chinese manipulated the lockdown to put a lid on inflation.... personally think that's a crazy suggestion.
But what is certain, China used some of their strategic reserves to take the heat out of the copper spike earlier this year (that exercise failed to do more than pause the price when it was rising), and now that the price has dropped back down to current levels there is evidence that they are buying more than their (current) demand.
If China are refilling these reserves at todays prices it tells you where they think the price is heading from here........ Up!
GLA
Looks like this week is the start of the fall from the bear market rally. We are heading into a massive recession. Copper will fall over the next month or so but it will recover quickly and we will see all time highs next year, hopefully in the first quarter. The gold price will drop too but that will turn quickly as it does in recession.
For the reasons above, I do not see bushranger being sold in October or November as some believe, I don't think it will be the best time to maximise value.
That would be a little misleading to suggest some believe it will be sold in October. His comments just support that maybe, they will be actively getting the modelling finished to get it in front of AA and as per Steve’s AGM feedback notes to get their first rights of refusal options out the way as soon as they can. I’m sure there are some that are ‘hopeful’ of a sale in Q4, Colin is still probably one of them! But believing is a bit different to be fair.
Realistically what we can hope for at this stage after waiting all this time, is there are no delays in the models finally being released.
Well howzap that's how I perceived it. They will trigger the decision to mine and AA have 30 days to buy it or leave it...... maybe buy it if!!
I'm saying Colin and the team won't do it when they said because AA will have to make the decision with copper prices low and that's not ideal especially with a recession that everyone and his dog can see coming. Copper goes down with a recession but this time I think it will only drop so far because chine as o e example will start buying and hoarding it.
And I said October or November.
Actually howzap, some believed it would be sold in May/June. If you want to talk about misleading maybe you should call Colin out on his misleading!!!
"Realistically what we can hope for at this stage after waiting all this time, is there are no delays in the models finally being released."
Hahaha ha is that comment supposed to be a joke?
The April May June target was kind of blown out the water with the analysis of Ascot showing multi porphyry potential. As it did too in relation to, supporting the earlier analysis from some assays at RC that showed deeper intersections of copper, pointing to further porphyry below the main body there.
It’s not difficult to understand the decision to extend drilling in phase 2 in what is an evolving understanding of the geology and what that implies to how they go about the resource building to get the project in the best possible position to achieve maximum value down the line.
Talking about a sale is a bit premature anyway considering we haven’t had the updated for RC and the initial resource estimate for Ascot yet. So it ‘is’ fair to be realistic in just hoping the company deliver on that first.
Let’s see where it sits first, then we can all reset once again. Looking forward to the ‘told you so’s and of course, the Doh’s’ But at least will all be on the same page………. well, for a day or two at least.
Sorry, not exactly relevant to xtract directly, but more toward the future of the mining industry. Particularly in Australia, that although are very tolerant of mining, they also have some of the most stringent environmental legislation in the world. It is this type of energy transition solution that will be a requirement for permits to be authorised in the coming years.
>>Certainly one way is through innovations in renewables and battery storage solutions, on site modular electrolysers up to 100MW that convert water to Hydrogen using renewable energy from on site wind and solar power, could well be one solution that will fuel the machines that extract and transfer the ore and also fuel the production processes and facilities.<<
The very latest technologically advanced modular units use ‘only’ renewable energy. One in particular with it’s very own patented technology, ‘Proton Exchange Membrane.’ An advanced technology that converts to green Hydrogen in either Gas or liquid form. So it can even be used for grid balancing too by release into the gas pipeline, used as clean vehicle fuel, or in a host of industrial processes, significantly reducing emissions in logistics and heavy industry. As they can be switched on within seconds, PEM electrolysers have the edge in being able to rapidly react to fluctuations typical of renewable power generation. In comparison, the start-up time for alkaline water electrolysis is around an hour, making the latest technology ideally suited for grid balancing and meeting energy deficits too. A big tick toward those approvals.
The tech does not need to play catch-up to meet the clean energy demands of different industries, it is already in place now and appears to be a perfect solution for the mining industry.
bit quiet here today
The calm before the storm. (I'm sure I've said this before). Björk is in town singing her favourite number.
Anyway, it's been a long while since the outstanding holes were completing. Bearing in mind we have the assays back from 53 and 54 (the final RC holes), it doesn't take a genius to work out 47, 48, 49 and 50 were more than likely not amazing. 53 and 54 were released 35 days ago. So which is it? Not great or holding back?
Intrigued by 49 though, why continue for 915m if it wasn't interesting.
Also need to hear back from the follow up to the 35m of gold we hit earlier, the drill iceberg described as "down the throat".
Don’t forget Footrot test holes as well - really looking forward to seeing them.
Not expecting any of these until end of Sept at the earliest or silence if they’re poor.
Hi Ben
Of them last lot of holes in phase 2, Holes 47 through to 52 tested the ground between Ascot and Racecourse, the southern extents of Ascot (52), and further defined the structure and extent of mineralisation in the central mineralised zone surrounding hole 35. >>They all intersected extensive zones of altered volcanics with trace, to locally weak to strong porphyry-related mineralisation throughout. << Then we had the couple of extra infill drills into RC that assays were turned around quick for, followed up by the very last hole into Ascot that was to test for the extension of mineralisation beneath hole 35 at depth, which subject to assays could add 100m of mineralisation with higher copper and gold tenor to the current known depth.
Going by the core analysis that was given, they don’t appear to be disappointing or not great. I also believe it would have been thought that maybe the very last hole in the programme was going to be the one down the throat, but they appear not to have done that exactly, maybe concentrating more on the structure of the main body with the gold shoots found in hole 39 maybe suspected to extend at depth below, and what has been tagged with hole 55?
We do know that a follow up phase however, will target the higher grade gold intersections, which would include the deep system (39) the outlying anomaly that assayed 2m @ 15.5g/t Au (33) along with the gold at shallower depths at both RC and Ascot.
Good post at 20:54 last night howezap. I normally try not to post in the absence of news but it is easy to see that in the current negative economic and geopolitical conditions that sentiment is in the doldrums and hence so is the sp. However, I have plans to sell exactly zero shares, and I am pretty excited about news over the next few months. Usually when I have been impatient I have lost out on big gains so I am trying to develop more Zen-like qualities during this market turmoil.
GLA all and have a good day fellow Xtractors.
Howezap & Zaph,
This is currently something of a 'wilderness time' where we simply need to wait until the model(s) and results are ready and the market turns. To think that all can create a perfect storm and arrive at the same time is a tad fanciful but CB, with African income is in a position to say that by looking forward both the price of Cu and the market will be far more attractive to XTR and hence we can, if necessary sit on our hands. I know that's not what many (most) want but it may well pressure AA, or another, to increase their bid for our assets when the market sentiment does not reflect such an offer. Also, during this time if XTR initiates phase 3 then the resource and the price will only increase leading to more pressure for a prospective new owner to make an offer. So, having been used to watching XTR like a hawk I will have to get used to things moving a little slower but there is the prospect of picking up more shares as the sp will drift during this time. It is AIM after all.
Good stuff Cygnus the only thing I would tend do disagree on is sitting on hands tho.
Being in recessionary times, does not mean that M&A’s will not happen, where one, or any of the majors are concerned it will be an ideal time to jump, wether it be AA, or other once we get the agreement out the way.
Businesses are, or should be, examining their existing lists of potential acquisition targets and should be prepared to act, as deal premiums maybe likely to come down and assets that companies had been reluctant to sell in the past may become available. As in xtract’s case with its primary asset being under the confines of the buy back agreement.
>>Evidence from the global financial crisis from late 2007 through early 2009 shows that companies that made significant acquisitions during an economic downturn outperform those that did not.
There are some caveats: The GFC was, as its name indicates, a financial crisis, and was somewhat limited to the financial services and real estate sectors. << But it is the nearest example there is.
I believe Xtract will have a fairly decisive plan what to do with Bushranger and if that is to actively market it once the models are released (as per paragraph in annual report RNS) then that along with Colin’s “being happy with an $8000 copper price” will not see a shortage of willing buyers.
Steve4077’s post notes from the AGM (24 Aug 2022 09:56) do suggest they will be actively marketing too, as soon as the modelling is announced, then after speaking to AA it seems, entering into more drilling, at first to improve the IRR with higher grade at RC then other targeted areas sequentially. With a further comment from Steves notes on Colin
>> Again reading between the lines, it sounds like informal contacts may have already happened. Colin made it clear that when a deal happens, it can happen quickly.
If there is a fair value to be had it will be got. The actual sale process going foreword I don’t believe has been affected so far beyond the 2-4 month delay in RC modelling by any of the external factors……..yet!
howezap,
My comment on 'sitting on hands' was meant to imply that as we are currently self financing we cannot be held to ransom with a low ball offer i.e if we don't take the offer we will suffer dilution etc. Instead, we can threaten to 'sit on our hands' until the right offer come along.
howezap,
My comment on 'sitting on hands' was meant to imply that as we are currently self financing we cannot be held to ransom with a low ball offer i.e if we don't take the offer we will suffer dilution etc. Instead, we can threaten to 'sit on our hands' until the right offer come along.
One other point, with the lower price of Cu and the high price of energy (required to mine the Cu), at this time the resource model will in all likelihood need to use a higher cut-off grade figure than 0.15% leading to a smaller resource. But that will depend on the economic situation at the time the model is signed off.
Sorry to be negative but need to be honest about these things.
It is worth noting that Australia is a net exporter of energy (coal and gas) and coal remains a significant source of power generation. https://www.energy.gov.au/data/energy-trade.
This helps the Government contain electricity price increases better than European governments.
Australia is also highly invested in switching significantly to renewables and increasing the footprint of the National Grid. This will be highly resource intensive for copper.
Ups and downs!
Hi Cygnus yes I see where you are coming from now, I guess the comment CB had made about sequentially drilling in a phase 3 programme rather than all at once, is indicative of that comment about, ‘sitting on hands’. Particularly of course if AA pass, on their options to buy back in then Xtracts optionality opens up further once again, with cash reserves in bank to get the project potentially over the line and the ability to self fund any further exploration beyond that to build on the resource.
I do believe though, that there will be an overall budget cap for Bushranger, they are not just going to keep spending because they can, not sure to what amount, but I think it will likely be sold before a full phase 3 is completed.
The further small, minimal capital cost, near production ready, safe jurisdiction etc joint ventures they are hopefully going to be reporting on soon that are planned for strategic growth. Will be important toward the long term outlook of Xtract and sound like they could well have the majority of income set aside for them. Although are potentially minimal capital outlay, they still don’t sound cheap. The company are in a stronger position now to be getting on board some of these projects as many more will be finding it increasingly difficult to get the funding without giving to much away in dilution in getting these projects finally to production.
I did read a comment that we should concentrate on what we have and not take on any more. I say, there should always be a business plan.
What do others reckon?
Howezap "I did read a comment that we should concentrate on what we have and not take on any more. I say, there should always be a business plan.
What do others reckon?"
Normally what you are saying is totally obvious. Of course an exploration company should be taking on new projects. The problem here is that Colin has multiple companies with a vast number of projects and is no longer as young as he would wish. I have shares in other CB companies as others have. Why do I want more of the same ?. Plus investing in a safe country like Oz is completely different to say Zimbabwe which I personally dismiss from past personal experience. I am sure many on here wouldn't want to see money made from a BR sale reinvested in such locations no matter how great the geology.