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A good two weeks now since the last assay results. This is not what we were told to expect. Small wonder there’s little interest. I do hope Colin isn’t holding results back. In any case, hypothetically, this wouldn’t work because at some point you have to release them. I hope I am wrong and it is simply that the assay labs are up to their necks in it. But that said weren’t we told we had one lab working exclusively on our stuff?
Time from reported completion of hole and reporting of assays.
Hole 7 66 days
Hole 8 61 days
Hole 9 70 days
Hole 10 78 days
Hole 11 85 days
Hole 12 97 days
Hole 13 57 days
Hole 16 66 days
14 completed 2 September
15 completed 14 September
17 completed 22 September
18 completed 28 September
19 completed 7 October
20 completed 20 October
21 completed 20 October
22 completed 2 November
23 completed 2 November
24 completed 9 November
25 completed 9 November
26 completed 19 November
27 completed 19 November
28 completed 2 December
29 completed 2 December
30 completed 2 December
Average days for assays is 72.5 days.
Looks like end of February, beginning of March for completion of assays.
I suspect the drilling team will be rapping up and going home for the holidays.
I think 36 holes would have been completed by then.
Days since holes completed without assays received.
14 96 days
15 84 days
17 76 days
18 70 days
19 61 days
20 48 days
21 48 days
There does seem to be a delay growing in getting these assays. Now is it because the lab are behind and its growing or is there a deliberate delay for a news bomb?
good posting Lucky, and appreciated.
again... my guess is, at least partially, a deliberate delay.. and I'd further guess a number of small news bombs more than big one(s) to come .... eg marrying small groups of assay results in not strict chronological order into one RNS, towards, tactical, presentational smoothing feedback out ....
ps: I was going to throw in the one liner.. 'a bird doesn't change its feathers'.. but birds do moult annually.. or bi annually even .. and so maybe there's a chance of CB changing his ways at some stage after all.. but at knocking on 4 score 20 I doubt it :-)
SP is a ******* joke - You might not care about it Colin but most of us share holders do!
It is less than a week since the most recent RNS so why does it seem like an age? Am i just impatient for news? Or is it that information via RNS seems to be being released more slowly than we were hoping. I don't know why but the reporting of drill holes being completed in particular seems to be getting slower and slower. The two latest drill holes ( 31 and 32) have not yet reported as completed but were shown as being in progress on the diagram issues with the 19 Nov RNS. I sense something reasonably big is going on hidden from view, just not sure whether this is big positve or big negative. Ho-hum just need to be more patient I guess.
You are right to be concerned at the current and decreasing SP, despite a shedliad of recent drill and assay results.
There is a pattern of this currently across the whole Bird stable, with the possible exception of JLP, although that is largely run by Leon Coetzer. One can't help wondering if this is due to a lack of trust in Bird and some disparity in much of the stable between stated and achieved goals.
A full 18 days from holes 31/32 starting, but from previous workings out I figured they were reporting holes starting some 200+m into them.
I think they are long finished but why the delay in reporting?
Why have we not had an interview with zak for some time?
It does make you jittery.
Its a small miner prospector thing not Colin. All my other stuff is the same.hum ufo hzm gwm gg. Its the sector. It will come back soon.
I think this is like a watched Kettle.... we watch and wait for RNSs that we are expecting frequently and so a few days longer than we expect seems to be be a drag. It has been 2 weeks since the last Assay result were RNS'd though.....
Volume remains low so there is no (significant) selling but by the same token no interest either.
As has been mentioned elsewhere the sector is totally out of favour with the exception of Cornish Metals which has had a very very good run. One of those ones that I have on my watchlist and have ‘watched’ it go up and up. Missed that one grrrr
Rumors are improvised new designed to fill the void created when news demand exceeds new supply. Factual content may vary.
I'll just leave that there.
To be honest, I’m relaxed about the sp drop. It does not reflect the fundamentals here imo.
CB may exaggerate a bit and be overly optimistic at times but he’s not an idiot. He has unequivocally stated, a few times, that we have at least 2mt CuEq. His reputation would be in taters if he announced we hadn’t now reached that threshold. No one would ever believe a word he ever says again.
Its for that reason I‘m confident we have 2mt but my concern is how that translates to a higher SP. CB has not been as dogmatic or unequivocal of the revised SP after buy-out. His 25p to 30p comment was his expectation but there are a number of variables in that assessment, outside his control, such as the POC that is used in the assessment and % buy-out.
As previously stated I’ve now dismissed the 3% buy-out figure, that Cornford used, as that seems to be more appropriate in a measured resource. In fact 2% seems optimistic from looking at other like for like sales.
Although 1.75% seems reasonable, we may be in for a surprise and discover the % buy-out is much lower than many expected, say 1.4% and the POC used could also be low, at say $8000 . I don’t think this will be the case but there is a possibility it could be much lower than most have assumed.
That said, even if those very pessimistic values are used, at 2mt CuEq that would equate to an sp of 17p (ex African assets and excluding SE / SW and footrot). If we add on a very low valuation for African assets of say 3p, then 20p would seem the absolute minimum the sp should hit some time next year. And that would be assuming there is zero value in the SW / SE extensions and footrot.
That's why I'm relaxed about the drop.
Andrew4444 - superb post. Realistic, balanced, I totally agree that our expectations ‘may’ not be met viz a viz 40p for example but to me it seems impossible that we can lose money from this level.
This drop is purely sentiment driven with v low volume allowing MM’s to drop the price in an attempt to stimulate volume (that’s how they make their money)
We know there is a lot of work going on behind the scenes but, as has previously happened, I think the issue here is poor management of expectations. Assay turn around was expected to be 6-8 weeks. The only update we have had regarding timings is that we now have a dedicated lab and results should be coming through thick and fast. If anything, they have slowed further still since then with 4 holes +10 weeks and 1 at 14 weeks and counting.
It’s all well and good being relaxed about the share price drop, but that has been the narrative for almost the entirety of the last 12 months drilling. I don’t think it’s too much to expect consistent communication, management of expectations and by now, somewhat of a PR push to start showing the market what we really have. Of course willing to eat my words if that’s what we do see over the next few weeks!
>>Its a small miner prospector thing not Colin - You've obviously not been involved in this share/a CB co that long. He's got a long history here of not following his word...
Ay up Dibs I am back haha!! Strap on folks!!!
ok not yet! Just thought I would pop in & say hi to long termers, not sold any here just busy losin gmoney elsewhere! 2022 will be huge for XTR imho....
Stay safe folks.
>>To be honest, I’m relaxed about the sp drop. It does not reflect the fundamentals here imo.
The problem, as I see it, A4444 is that why would AA (or anyone else) pay 12/15/20p+ etc when they could buy the whole company for ~10p. As I understand it the BoD has to put an offer for the company out to a shareholder vote. Who would vote against a low-ball offer of 10/12p if they got a payout in January?
I dont think AA would get involved in a low-ball offer until they know what they are buying. For them to know the shareholders would have to know so the market would know. Thats my way of saying it would self balance out regarding the SP ?
They couldn't buy the whole company. If we prove up over 2mt in the open pit without footrot and the SE many shareholders would vote against.
If AA come in with a 12p offer I would think Colin would call the other majors and mid tier miners and see what they are willing to pay.
AA have the first refusal, doesn't stop us from getting offers elsewhere.
>>They couldn't buy the whole company. If we prove up over 2mt in the open pit without footrot and the SE many shareholders would vote against. - I'm not so sure, look at where the SP is now and we've had some hefty selling. If the SP jumped to 12p today there would be a huge offload...
Colin Bird stated in a video interview that we do not have to accept the jorc valuation. The way I see it is, if we get an offer from anyone else we can then say to AA that's the price take it or leave it.
Nobody on here knows the clauses of the contract but Colin knows more than us.