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ERPD process concluded successfully! Huge commercial milestone achieved. Cannot be underestimated. WHO prequalification already underway.
This basically means the Visitect CD4 advanced test can now be procured by organisations with access to the Global Fund or UNITAID funds. This means NGO’s. And once this starts it’s going to get bigger and bigger.
A possible sale of part of the business or complete takeover. A number of hugely bigger Diagnostics players would surely be interested in Visitect CD4 for example if, as we hope, it gains commercial traction. This product is unique in the marketplace. And it’s what initially attracted me to ODX years ago. And we are practically there now. It’s almost in the bag. Finally.
Don’t get me wrong I don’t want them to flog it but if there was an offer it would have to surely reflect the projected value which is way above the market valuation of the entire company. A conservative estimate is at least three times the current MC.
Hi up - going to assume you’re sober now ;) so I agree it would be good to get the results out the way. That said they’ve already given us a heads up on the main numbers so we know there will be no surprises - welcome or unwelcome. So the actual results themselves should have no SP impact. The thing that *might* affect SP is the further comments they made about ‘commercial discussions’ and ‘post BS events’. This is what is intriguing me.
The Global Fund is inviting expressions of interest to manufacturers of POC CD4 tests. They want it bad. And we are ahead of the game.
It looks to me as though Omega have got ERPD approval for the Visitect CD4 350 Test. I’ve been doing some research and I found this document on the Global Fund website which is dated 29th August.
If you go to page 16 you’ll find the relevant details. It’s been placed on Risk Category 2 - which is good - and means the product can be procured by NGO’s on a time limited basis until 13th December in advance of WHO prerequisite in Q1 next year.
This is great news and a significant commercial milestone achieved. I would be expecting the company to announce to the market imminently since the document is dated 29th August - unless I’ve misunderstood something!
I think early Monday we’ll see the SP nudge up again. L2 moving in the final hour yesterday - MM’s were edging bid and offer higher, only one left on 11.7
Then, we will surely see the ERPD approval sometime next week which will be a major commercial milestone for the company. That will surely take us back to the mid-teens.
Yes I have. There does seem to be a coherent strategy moving forward now. All business segments look set for growth.
Stock is tightly held. 70% not in public hands. Significant stakeholders.
We just need the positive neesflow to continue.
Could the rising SP be signalling an expectation of good news? I believe so. EPRD approval could be any day now and this imho would be the final derisking of Visitect CD4 prior to scaling up of commercialisation. This is because, as a rule, a product which achieves ERPD approval would rarely not obtain to ultimate WHO prerequisite.
I truly believe the tide is finally turning here and I’ve now built up a decent holding with average of 10.8 (been buying in past few weeks) so already break even. Lots more to come though.
N2M - I concur with your hypothesis. Was encouraged to hear there are other schemes moving through the pipeline. The big issue is the rather lumpy nature of the revenue flow and when that can have a negative effect, as in recent months. But we look to be in for a good financial year here and at some point the market will pick up on it. That’s my thinking anyway.
Interesting. Sneller adding to his stake again?
Happy with recent announcements. £580k of orders in the past week is not bad.
Regarding the ERPD (which is a crucial milestone for larger scale orders) the company expected to submit the dossier by end April. My research tells me that the ‘time limited outcome’ for this process should take no longer than four months. On that basis we should know the outcome by the end of this month or very soon after.
Hopefully the tide is turning.
Back in this.morning. A bit of a punt but valued at just £2.75m now which seems a bit undervalued to me given the pipeline.
My main concern on the short term funding has been allayed. I’ve researched and ASH have no history of placings, at least over the past few years. I am guessing that rather than take (permanent) dilution they will extract short term lending in form of a loan or overdraft from the bank.
I expect a bounce once the funding uncertainty is lifted and the schemes close.
Agreed and there’s no reason for any adverse reaction and we haven’t got one fortunately. Also they’ve released at literally the quietest time of the year.
However that all said the bit that intrigues me is this comment:
“The Company has decided to defer releasing its full financial results to give further time to gain clarity regarding certain ongoing commercial discussions and other post-balance sheet events.”
A question. Almost a year ago In Sept 2018 AAU posted an RNS ref the above stating the following:
,500m Reverse Circulation ("RC") drilling programme being planned in order to test the full strike-length of the mineralised structure.
Does anyone know if they have progressed this at all? I can't see any subsequent mention of it but I may have missed something.
john - I believe the rising Pog (and silver) will blow all those concerns clean out of the water
I am Uber bullish about precious metals. This is a different ball game now, whichever way you look st it. Debt at historic highs and continuing to rise. Negative interest rates. Looming recession. Trade wars. Geopolitical instability in the Far East and Middle East. There are so many reasons stacked up in favour of gold we will see $2,000 within a year.