The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
By the way, and this is for Dug who has gone very quiet, Jon Burrows confirmed they have sold 770 tests (or whatever the figure was exactly) in TOTALITY. Even he says that has been put to bed so he obviously read the ridiculous hysteria about it this morning on the BB. AIM Execs do often look at these boards you know!
Unlike many here I am not impressed. There are a number of points that are highly debatable and one or two things that imho quite disingenuous.
As I said earlier for me personally trust in management is key. Up until this morning I had no reason to doubt management. But boy oh boy today has been an eye opener.
For example there was a suggestion, no, a clear indication that OBD were approached by not one but several ‘third parties’ regarding two of the tests in their pipeline that coincidentally just happen to be open ready. How convenient. How timely. I don’t believe it. No OBD have put the feelers out NOT the other way around. This is very different to actually being approached.
We haven’t even seen the documented validation of these tests yet Mr Burrows is claiming he’s been told by these ‘third parties’ that their colorectal test is the best on the market?? How the hell did they reach that conclusion?
I’ve plenty more to say but I’ll leave it for now…
Krull - hi there ref the potential deals The problem is Time is not on their side. I would guesstimate they have no more than two months, possibly less to complete these deals and they take time.
I think it far more likely they are going to have to go to the market for more cash, and they are not in a strong position to do so. Today’s news has bought any share price advance to a juddering halt. I see this struggling until the cash position is resolved and it is clear that growth in test sales has resumed. There is considerable uncertainty over both these issues.
Long-term the potential remains considerable but short term looks rocky.
I am wondering about how Big Pharma feel about little OBD negatively impacting some of their lucrative ICI drug sales with a test that ‘outs’ their efficacy (or lack of). Let’s not forget they will have a cosy relationship (through THEIR sales people) with many of the oncologists we are hoping to persuade to use our test.
Let’s put this another way, would the SP be 26p and down 21% if they had sold 770 CIRT Tests since 1st October.
I can see why this could be misinterpreted because I don’t think the company were clear enough in the way they provided the stats. Perhaps deliberately who knows?
But I am in no doubt whatsoever that they have NOT sold 770 tests since 1st October. Do you not think Jon Burrows would’ve been far more upbeat in his statement had they done so?
One other thing I’m rather peeved about. In the November 2023 presentation- NOVEMBER - the company provided CIRT test sales figures only to the end of June. Now we know why!?
Because the sales growth dropped right off afterwards! You can’t tell me they didn’t have the July to October figures when they put that presentation together.
Trust is very important to me as an investor so Mr Burrows has some explaining to do.
Hi Newuncle ‘So that 144 PSE tests in the USA since 1 Jan 2024.......’
No I do not believe that is correct . It’s 144 tests sold in total since launch in Sept in both the US AND the UK. Check the RNS it’s all there.
Just trying to be factual. I want this to succeed as much as you!
I was shocked and surprised by the CIRT numbers this morning I have to say.
That said the SP always tells you a story and the SP was telling us.
It’s absolutely clear they will need a fundraising and soon.
Fantastic potential and I will hold but this is quite a setback actually.
It is truly p*sing in the wind the idea of ‘director buys’ here. You think Newland is going to give up a single penny of his obscenely overpaid salary? Now that WOULD be ‘groundbreaking’ if it ever happened! I think you need to try working another ‘Angle’ carrots!
Yes we’ve had a single seller today unloading at 30k blocks which has halted this mornings advance as we lost the buying pressure from earlier.
All very academic though as all eyes turn to tomorrow. Seem to have been waiting forever for this announcement!
Steady downward trend on intraday chart. Finish around the low of the day.
Stock massively overvalued with no coherent commercial strategy from clueless management who rely on hyperbole and confusing communication to market.
Are going to be absolutely crucial to this company’s future success imho.
Cashburn has risen to around £300k pm (or slightly more) probably due to increased sales amd marketing and headcount. They’ve got enough cash to last another good 12 months possibly 15 tops.
The reason the next three months are crucial is if they don’t finally land the QVH contract this time they surely never will. A decision is pending there after retendering. They have to get it don’t they? Secondly around April time is the sweet spot for new NHS budgets being allocated and this is when TO himself has stated is when the big decisions are taken.
After having castigated TO previously I’m now beginning to wonder whether all the endless patience here will, finally, begin to pay off.
They need roughly £4.7m revenue to break even which equates to around 10 single CDC contracts I believe. Or three larger Trust ones.
The other thing that I thought interesting when revisiting this was that they have now managed to achieve some kind of engagement at a national level ie.NHS England. You would assume then that if this finally gets the nod at a national level we are talking about a National roll out rather than a handful of random contracts.
“IF” so then the current SP is an absolute steal. IF!
Jon Burrows speaking last May re the sales prospects for CIRT and PSE Tests:
“So, we have a perfect storm happening here…and I’m very very happy to be able to report this to you and I can’t wait to report to you next January where this is all going…”
I think that says it all. A very confident CEO.
If one were to play devils advocate, in regard to both CIRT and PSE tests, what are the negatives? What can stop their progress in terms of growing sales? Both tests are validated and highly regarded in the industry. What can stop their ultimate success, and therefore OBD’s success? They are playing in huge markets. Are there any potential competitors out there that could steal market share? If there are comparable ones I’m not aware of them.
As Dug has already pointed out it’s not really about the historical results to end September though they should show an increase in revenue over 2022. There will be no contribution from PSE just CIRT. It’s what has happened since September that will be of particular interest.
And what the company is projecting for the coming year.
The ‘true’ drop in SP today was actually just 0.2p given we had a UT yesterday
Next weeks results will demonstrate growth in sales and revenue. The question is how much?
All the indicators point towards a good result because there was sales growth momentum in the CIRT test in the preceding results. And with 50 clinicians already acting as proxy sales people already last summer there is cause for optimism.
And for those who suggest why they haven’t already posted a sales update - they were very clear in the previous results that the next update would be in January 2024.