The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Buyout price, and timing of models, etc., is going to be strongly affected by the price of copper. If that starts moving back up in the short term, I suspect the process will accelerate. Otherwise, patience needed.
If copper goes back to earlier highs then 20p would be disappointing. If it hangs around this level for a while, then probably happy with 20p.
20p
Where do I sign ?
Correct Double
1Billion fully diluted
warrants at 8 and 10p, I think it basically 1000m to 1 above so £200m = 20p
Actually, yes, some of us do still think 20+p is likely.
Why do you think that LittleWing?
No
The 2MT on Racecourse alone IS a trigger point with AA.... so it was the oiginal target.....
I think as the liklihood of Racecourse achieving it alone went from a stretch target to unlikely, Colins wording changed to include the whole concession.
I also note that focus has gone more on triggering the buyback clause with the "Decision to Mine" than with the achieving th 2MT at Racecourse.
I'm still expecting something in the region of 1.5MT.... purely on the basis that.... as Andrew said... they were so bullish earlier on that it would be a reputational blow to be low by say a factor of 2.
By the way...
Because nothing is priced in re Bushranger, even if the results are not as good as we all hoped for, or as CB has implied. I am not expecting a big drop even with bad news.
Circa 3p is probably about the value of FB alone.
ANY value from Bushranger will see the sp rise
IMHO
At 3.2p the mkt cap is 27.4m so that's 8.5m a penny
Sooo,
£100m is 11.75p
£200m is 23.50p
£300m is 35.25p
etc, etc, plus the African assets
"Unfortunately XTR does not seem to be getting its message out there"
I suspect many have seen a number of "false dawns" in the past and now want so see actually delivery before getting in against CB's previous implications and expectations.
I appreciate that some may see that as complaining and moaning about the company :)
Anyone still thinking it'll be >20p buy out?
It can be frustrating being a LTH here but the nature of the beast is the fact that when rerating news drops it will be already too late for the day traders to get in low.
That's what I'm hoping for anyway.
In the meantime I'm content to just whinge !
The volume will increase when the traders believe that good news is about to drop!
Unfortunately XTR does not seem to be getting its message out there and traders will use it as a stepping stone rather than the medium/long term asset that most of us LTHs are doing. Consequently the price drops when the time scale is anything longer than Jam at teatime...
Brilliantly put. Thanks for taking the time, Steve.
>> Or you could instead ask yourself why the SP is so appallingly low and always retraces after good news, even though we are supposedly on the cusp of greatness
Assuming you want an actual answer, lets look at this week as an example. Friday close was 3.425p. Volume each day was (screenshots on Telegram):
Mon 480k volume, with 210k sells.
Tue 350k volume with mostly sells
Wed 175k volume, with 100k sells.
Thu 425k with 255k sells.
Today (so far) is 80k all buys.
So in total since Monday open, we have 1.5m volume in total with less than 900k sells. Selling is therefore 0.1% of shares in a week, or about 1 share in every 1000 shares sold. Share price is currently 3.25p, so over that period we have a drop of almost 10%.
So is it mismanagement by CB that caused the share price to drop 10% in a week (due to people holding on to 99.9% of shares?) Or is it simply MMs taking advantage of minimal volume to push down the price - like they do all the time?
Maybe take a look at actual trading before assuming there is a lack of faith in the company rather than MMs playing games.
Also, bearing in mind that Colin has 14m shares and 32m options, including options at 10p, we can probably draw a couple of conclusions:
1) His lack of 'ramping' (interviews, constant RNS) suggests that current share price is irrelevant from the perspective of the medium-term health of the company. Unlike almost all other small-cap explorers, the drifting share price doesn't impact our ability to raise capital. In 2021 we saw a lot of that behaviour prior to raises. However, this year's June report and last years both stated no reason to raise over the following 12 months.
2) If there was any concern about the economic modelling, we would be engaged in a phase 3 drilling of Racecourse and Ascot. I guarantee if had 46m shares, income from Manica and concerns about selling racecourse, drills would already be in the ground.
I now return you to your regularly scheduled complaining and moaning about he company...
I think they have the chronology wrong. Xtract then surfing, not surfing then Xtract
https://www.miningmx.com/rainmakers/profile/228
LIFE OF JAN
.....He left - after an apparent bust-up with Pan African’s BEE partner Shanduka - and took a year or so’s sabbatical to go surfing before returning to junior mining via Colin Bird’s Xtract Resources
I believe JN took a few years off after the mess he made of Xtract and opened up a surf shop in SA and spent his time surfing
I honestly can't see CB doing that :)
Nelson and Chepica cost me dearly when I could least afford it.
I learned a lot as it unfolded that they literally just legged it and left all the machinery.
Jan Nelson buggered off back to SA with his GF who had sold us a pile of useless tailings, and he started a brewery I think.
Buggered off with my money.
CB had better not do that to me again.
Just saying.
IWTO
Sorry, I should have been clearer.
CB implied that we would prove up the 2mt with our drilling. I suspect there may well be more than 3mt over all the licence, but we wont be getting that value unless we prove it up ourselves.
Obviously we wont be doing that but CB did imply we would have a MRE of 2mt.
To be fair, I guess he may still be proved right as the MRE has not been declared yet.
I really hope I owe him an apology soon :) But I doubt it.
Hi gixxer, if I could offer some defence for CB. Firstly, Kwadoku ramblings on the various company share price declines since Colin bird took them over, just uses the share price to support his agenda and not market caps. He ignores that fact and so does not take into account any share dilution since then, so is very misleading.
Generally a tier 1 , depending on
where you are , is a mine that produces 20mtpa over 20+ years. This of course will be an initial mine, that will go on to access the deeper underlying porphyry after the open pit is depleted. Results have shown some drills had touched the edges of these deeper porphyry at RC. Thus increasing the life of mine considerably. I’m hoping the updated conceptual study will show this as a feasible future option. Along with IP/EM signatures across the whole deposit area that show other anomalous targets including two new targets identified. These will all have some credence backed by the correlation of the surveys against the assays from RC.
I think value will certainly come from showing a multi mineralised, multi porphyry system that they have gone to the lengths to understand from various drilling locations. Maybe doing so intentionally rather than just finding and firing holes into the high grade crown at Ascot to guarantee 2mt. What is more important?
Am I the only one who thought that 2MT was across the whole of the licence? That was reported back quite clearly, I thought. But that’s not to be sniffed at: 1.25Mt for RC (say), with optionality over Ascot and anywhere else that’s contributing to the 2Mt (capex-free after RC).....
"I notice that there must have been another "misunderstanding" re the "definitely got the 2mt "comment. He apparently was talking about the 2mt in ALL of the licence" - must have missed that comment.
As i recall, in the removed section of the presentation video he gave last year he actually circle's the RC area, with a lazer pen, when he states the target will be reached. He also stated its a T1 asset and that the mine will run so long mist SH's will be dead before the mine is barren. With the latest 25y statement I definitely hope I'll not be pushing up daisies so soon!
I should qualify that my numbers are for a pay out. I'm assuming the company will not divvi the whole BR sale value.
"My thinking now is 8-12p"
Possibly, but any buy out less than 10p or RC MRE less than 1M and I think CB's reputation is in tatters after all he has said many many times. There's being optimistic, and there's being deliberately misleading (being kind using that phrase) :)
Even CB's praetorian guard would struggle to defend his comments over the last 18 months with less than 1m RC or sub 10p buy-out.
I notice that there must have been another "misunderstanding" re the "definitely got the 2mt "comment. He apparently was talking about the 2mt in ALL of the licence - not what we would confirm from our drilling... Hmmm.
For clarity - I am expecting min 15p buy-out and 3p additional value for FB. Sp high, in high teens.