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howezap/Steve - Thanks for that, I hadn't noticed that re Footrot assays. The results must be imminent then!! Would be nice to confirm Footrot has gold mineralisation before beginning any negotiations with AA and to give the SP a kick before the big news.
>> The RNS wasn't clear to me whether the cores had been sent to be assayed.
I think they probably have been assayed because of the 'traces of copper' comment, but I agree it isn't clear.
"In addition to the Ascot drilling, two exploration drill holes, FTDD-22-001 and 002 completed at the Footrot prospect, about 7km south-southeast of Racecourse, intersected lengthy intervals of alteration and iron sulphide mineralisation along with traces of copper and possible gold indicator minerals. This could suggest proximity to a mineralised porphyry - further modelling of the geophysical results here will be required."
>> if we were 'short' and couldn't get a decent price for Bushranger, then I'm convinced CB would have ordered more drilling and done a raise if necessary.
Yes, completely agree. Its hard to find a scenario where CB is highlighting the release of MREs, creation of models and a decision to mine (while also holding off on more drilling) if the 'mine' wasn't economic - especially as there is income available to do drilling where necessary.
The only scenario I can think of is that CB doesn't want to make it too attractive to AA. It may be that XTR is looking for a 'no' from AA before conducting a phase 3 for infill and testing other geophysics targets before going to the wider market. That seems unlikely, but possible.
Hi Stevem footrot have been sent, it was mentioned in 27th july RNS update.
>>> Assay results continue to arrive, with the results from four drillholes still expected at Ascot and to the south of Racecourse, and the results of two drillholes expected from Footrot.
There are plenty of rules and laws to prevent insider trading. Obviously, it still goes on and some will get away with it and others won't.... but the risks are high and enough to put most people off.
I do not believe XTR would be under any obligation to share with the market the results of their modelling unless that categorically proved Bushranger was not economical to mine. That aside, they can sit on the info, play with the data to model different option and even discuss with other parties.
What I personally think they are obliged to notify the market of, is if they have a JORC complaint resource estimate of 2mt at Bushranger. This is only because of the unique nature of the buy-back clause and the fact that it would trigger negotiations with AA and news of that would undoubtedly have a significant impact on the SP.
I think we'' get a news bomb in the next few weeks i.e. resource estimates, modelling and new re AA and the buy-back clause/negotiations.
I am a little confused about Footrot though. The RNS wasn't clear to me whether the cores had been sent to be assayed. The RNS dangled the possibility of gold in front of us but didn't say whether the cores were going off to the lab to be tested. It would be a real boost if assays did come back before the news bomb to confirm Footrot is another large gold bearing asset.
Gixxer - I share your frustration but this feel like we have entered the end game now. For me, this is highlighted by the fact that there is no phase 3 - if we were 'short' and couldn't get a decent price for Bushranger, then I'm convinced CB would have ordered more drilling and done a raise if necessary.
BTW if you really were a CEO working on large scale M&A, you should have already known everything that I had to explain to you in this thread :)
You were suggesting that negotiations couldn't happen without an RNS. I was pointing out that they can and providing an example. As always, you will find a reason to be negative about it.
And I wasn't a CEO - I wasn't even leader of the team in the example case, so not sure where you got that idea from if you 'heard this story before'.
Yes Steve, we've all heard this story before. Maybe just cut and paste next time.
I was also a CEO that worked on multi billion pound projects, until I retired this year at the ripe old age of 51.
O/
>> Okay, so based on what you've stated; information of a material nature, possibly disusing a valuations in the billions of dollars, would be passed onto AA for them to peruse at their leisure. All before a release if that information to the public and entering into any buy-out negotiations.
I've personally been involved in three multi-billion dollar M&A deal negotiations. In one of those, a large company listed on the NASDAQ was engaged in detailed discussions to buy a FTSE 100 company. I was part of a team of three asked to provide a high level valuation of the target company and to estimate its future profitability. We had access to all the data of the target company and spent several weeks doing the review and interviewing the execs. In the end, the M&A didn't go ahead and no one outside those directly involved knows anything about it. Obviously I wasn't able to divulge anything and I wasn't allowed to trade during that period. There was no RNS for any of this and no information released to shareholders.
If all that can happen without anyone knowing, then I have no doubt that AA can talk to XTR about buying ProspectOre and shareholders won't be told until the potential deal is ready for release.
What it would actually mean more important than the money, is that I was right all along, and am ‘not’ an ‘over optimistic’ , ‘enthusiastic liar,’ Or a talented, dishonest bull’hitting dreamer.
Yay
I'd be much more ostentatious than that Gixxer
Fill up both my and wife's cars with fuel and put central heating on full :)
I imagine a quid a share would make you a very wealthy man A4444 - A beach house and a Chalet in the Alps for starters!
"I think the stark truth is no one knows what is going on"
Not true.
I wasnt going to mention this but I have friend who lives in Sydney and he was at a Hotel last week and saw CB talking to Duncan Wanblad (Ceo of AA) . He over heard Wanblad saying to CB
" If we add another zero to the offer and make it nine zeros on the end, then have we got a deal?"
Please would everyone keep this quiet as I will have £100 spare cash by Wednesday and want to top-up again before sp goes over £1 by end of the month.
I would even suggest it's probably in our/the companies interest to release the updated models to the market first. It will give other interested parties time to digest the data and, should AA decline to evoke the contract, could mean less lag before another offer come in.
AA have first refusal anyway. the Asset goes nowhere without them making a move.
I think the stark truth is no one knows what is going on, and really, why should we. Its a waiting game in which anything could happen. Those that don't like it are very vocal, but they know where the door is (or should have avoided coming in that door in the first place). Try Bitcoin. At least there is no-one to blame when things are not going the way way you think they should.
Hasn't CB even stated this himself? - Something like 'If I were AA I would put in an offer before the data is released'
Okay, so based on what you've stated; information of a material nature, possibly disusing a valuations in the billions of dollars, would be passed onto AA for them to peruse at their leisure. All before a release if that information to the public and entering into any buy-out negotiations.
It's still my opinion that the BR proposed valuations have to be released via RNS first.
I would suggest following the official release of 'material information' negations between parties can be kept confidential and fall in line with 'MAR 1.2 of the FCA Handbook'.
We have seen this on previous occasions with other companies. Notably with Cornerstone making an offer to SOLG following the release of a resource update.
Hi Steve do you have an opinion as to why they have maybe held off on increasing the Initial recovery rate at RC instead going to updated JORC and decision to mine?
Could it suggest further, that the idea you reported back from the AGM (reading between the lines) that seemed to be, to get the AA decision out the way whilst the resource was sub 2mt, to get a ‘no’ from them. Could having an inferior IRR potentially give more an idea that maybe AA are (unofficially) not interested?
Thanks Steve. That filled a little gap in my understanding and confirmed my hunch that there can be, and may well be, things going on between those 'in the know'. Let's hope there is!
According to AIM rules:
"An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance."
However...
"an AIM company may delay notifying information under this rule if it is an impending development or a matter in the course of negotiation provided such information is kept confidential. The AIM company must ensure it has in place, in accordance with rule 31, effective procedures and controls designed to ensure the confidentiality of such information to minimise the risk of a leak."
Anyone involved in negotiations, or anyone with 'material' information not available to the market, would be subject to a blackout order that prevents them trading. I have been under such a blackout order many times.
Exactly, you own 1m shares in AA and you find out, prior to an RNS, that AA will dilute to buy BR. You'll sell short term if you can get away with it.
Flip side, you own 20m shares in XTR and you find BR is not commercial. You're gonna sell if your not on the board and your sales are not directly monitored.
Or indeed employees of XTR's PR company, their accountants, any number of external but involved organisations. Companies do not operate in a vacuum. They work with other companies. C'est la vie.
Yes, but AA and representatives who are involved in meetings and presentations will know the value of RC/BR before the market does.
There's nothing to stop those individuals 'in the know' buying or selling shares in AA or XTR.
Insider trading? I don't think selling a company, lock stock and barrel, is the same as buying some shares on the cheap if you have insider info that there is news imminent that will send the share price higher.
AA have first refusal. All the other mining companies will have to wait their turn. And there are no PIs competing for the purchase of the entire company (as this is what Colin Bird has said will be sold, not 80% as stated as a lower base in the AA agreement).