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Bird says today on Traders Cafe that the announcement for AFP is perhaps the most significant of his entire career. Similar SP as XTR yet could realistically hit 50p-100p+ if it was to come in and that could happen inside of 12 months.
Well, its related to Colin Bird, so probably African Pioneer is the best place to go. You are logged in to ADFN so probably best to use the Search facility.
Wrong chat kidda
'update from First Quantum looks very promising indeed, though still very early days.' have you got a link for that update?
"Is reporting of these results mandatory in any way, or does the company just choose to publish if they want to?"
They have to publish quarterly figures but they publish at a time that suits them, be it 2 weeks after period ends or 3 months after period ends.
If Q3 results are good (like last year) we will get them sooner than later.
I think we could be expecting to see Manica Q3 results anytime soon? They were reported on Oct 14 last year. Is reporting of these results mandatory in any way, or does the company just choose to publish if they want to? Reiterating the presence of what appears to be ongoing passive income should be a positive, as long as the rate of output is still on track to build to full production levels.
>>>we know a lot of Racecourse that was previously considered to be waste in the original conceptual pit model is now converted to ore……<<<
Particularly to the north eastern side where hole 17, which orientation was to the north east, away from the main defined resource. Incidentally, a hole that also intersected a deep zone of copper mineralisation that points to a further porphyry. Good value in that hole and one that the acquirer will certainly develop further to extend LOM far beyond the 20-25 yrs of the open pit, where these deeper systems will be easier to gain access to underground from and when pit is depleated.
Huge implications for future economics with all plant and infrastructure already paid for.
So the typical grades of porphyry deposits are in the region of 0.2cu+ down to .0.15. The quality of the ore is more than adequate at BR, with long runs of mineralisation in the hundreds of metres, but there are many other factors that will determine profitability potential and being open pitiable is the main one.
In most cases, the strip ratio is partially used to measure how profitable a deposit/project may be. A higher strip ratio generally translates to higher mining costs.
It is basically used as tool to determine open pit slope angle when mine planning, with the local geology determined. Geology determines the slope angle of course, with every extra degree of angle added to the slope of the pit wall due to the type of waste, it increases costs massively. So once the slope angle needed, is determined it gives you the strip ratio which is then used toward working out mining costs against anticipated copper price and ultimately if the mine is viable
Mining costs take into account the type of waste material, which we know a lot of Racecourse that was previously considered to be waste in the original conceptual pit model is now converted to ore as it was going to be mined anyway, so will have the potential to reduce the overall strip ratio in the new model. (which was already favourable) Mining costs also take into account the quality of the ore and the recovery rate at separation which metallurgy results have shown to have no issues at separation with 89-90% recovery rate. All in all determining the economic cut off grade which is expected to be 0.15%CuEq now.
To sum up it is hard to see where any nasty surprises will come from and with RC resource increase ‘estimate’ of 500mt@ 0.3Cu @ a cut off of 0.15Cu, up from 74mt @0.44Cu with 0.3 cut off. To what effect will economy of scale have on improving NPV?
I must admit I had a little deja vu with the first few minutes of that Midweek takeaway.
I wonder why.
"Yet the market believes the RNS of of another company he's at the driving wheel with. So much so that it jumps over 36% within the hour. How do you justify that".
Well the RNS from the other company (AFP) detailed an update provided by a credible partner. CB also then went on with Sunday Roast and suggested this £4m market cap company could potentially be worth hundreds of millions and in a relatively short time frame. So a 36% movement at £4m not actually that big. I do of course take everything CB says with a pinch of salt, but the update from First Quantum looks very promising indeed, though still very early days.
99% of potential investors have not heard of XTR. Only a small proportion of those with knowledge of XTR will have done the necessary research and some of those will have become bored and wandering away to the next shiny object.
You are also assuming that the current share price is related to the actual trading. If you monitor the individual trades and MM movements on level 2, you can see that the volume is minimal most days and its not unusual for the MMs take it down even on days with more buying than selling. XTR is in a holding pattern waiting for news with those in the know already taken their positions. The share price will move up once there is volume and that volume will only appear on significant news and a new buzz around the company.
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett
I think where BR is concerned, there is still only the current JORC and an exploration phase to base toward value. I think it’s quite clear that there is a distinct lack of understanding of porphyry deposits too, from PI’s generally, particularly within uk markets. As most Xtract investors are mainly PI’s then this market still sees it as too speculative at present until the updated and maiden resource statements are released, along with a positive mining study which will be the deal breaker toward a positive rerate.
Yet the market believes the RNS of of another company he's at the driving wheel with. So much so that it jumps over 36% within the hour. How do you justify that.
Thats almost what I mean. A zero probability from the market just seems low….too low.
Let’s see.
4. The market doesnt believe CB's statements re Bushranger due to a number of failed timelines and events in the past - over the last few years on many different projects here.
(I'm not saying the market should or shouldn't believe CB's forward guidance re Bushranger - just giving my theory why sp hasnt moved)
I understand that an explorer has risks and I’m happy with that.
What I’m not sure about and don’t understand is that the probability of a successful sale of BR appears close to zero according to the SP, assuming the revenue generation over the next few years supports the current SP.
Typically with various corp actions or pending events an asset price will have 10%, 25%, etc probability of the event taking place.
Why is the ‘assumed’ probability so low?
1. XTR is micro micro cap, so off radar for many investors?
2. Perhaps with expected revenues the supported SP is only 1p for example and not 3.25p
3. I’m missing something significant?
With many reasonable assumptions here on the potential value of Bushranger in recent weeks / months, and having drilled over 30k metres for validation.
I can’t work it out.
I think this is a highly balanced and analyically decent BB and am very thankful for it.. and of course people can post as they see fit unless /until administrators stop them .. and everyone is indeed entitled to their opinion... which may change over time.. as the only constant in life is change.
The last thing I seek out is a forum that offers only an echo chamber of my own views... especially in the AIM game... and especially squared in the Commodity Sectors of the AIM Game.. where anything can happen.. and very often does.
All Imho..
Back to basics, great simple overview of the different deposit types and the typical grades expected from ‘quality’ assets.
Worth a butchers to swot up anyway, but particularly relevant from 25mins for the doubters that have the opinion that grades are poor across BR
https://youtu.be/tTlf9t2OAoI
Thanks Steve knew I’d heard it at some point was prob a repeat quote of the comment I read more recently I was thinking more of.
Agree ZM nice way of putting it. To just comment on fact from RNS if Colin didn’t do these podcasts would make for a very dull sterile bulletin board.
Count me in as being on that same page Cygnus. CB’s recent podcast quote of no phase 3 regardless, implied a sale sooner rather than later but, could well have been just giving investors what they needed to hear at that time. No worse than what Colin has done to keep investors interested previously along the way. So, I’m in no hurry for this to be sold early. It still remains potential to be a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Good for you - but it burst my bubble a little...
I did have a good average but it went up when I continued buying as the sp appreciated and thought that it would never see those prices again. Still, mid 3's which if this works out will be well worthwhile.
Cygnus
Very, nearly lowest for 2 years
I got a bit more at 3.09p 5 Oct
I wasnt going to as my average is low 2p's, but thought sub 3.1p was too good to miss
I may be thinking the same again at sub 3p :)
The only thing I would add to my last post is that with the sp the way it is now, well, I took the opportunity to have quite a big (for me) top up right at the end of Weds (I think it was) and the sp I got was 3.155p which seems to be the lowest price paid for the last 2 years! It has only increased since, so currently feeling smug but plenty of time to get egg on my face.
Steve, I think you and I are in the same boat.
Some of the frustration on this board lately seems to come from investors who wanted to make a quick buck and move on. That is your right of course but I'm happy to wait if it means an increased financial reward.
I was at the AGM. Colin stated something to the effect that he wanted AA to say no, so we could go to the wider market, and AA would have 30 days to decide once we stated the 'decision to mine'. I think howezap is remembering one of the 30m video presentations where Colin stated that if he was AA, he would be making an early offer.
If I was being Machiavellian, I might think that Colin didn't want any more drilling on BR at the moment, despite very good indications from the last Ascot surveys and money in the bank, because he wanted to force AA into a decision without the additional information available. Its a little risky, given he might give it away more cheaply than intended, but if he gets past the AA hurdle, then we have complete freedom in 2023 with money from FB and probably rising copper prices. I think that scenario would be my preferred option. I'm happy to be patient and the short-term share price is irrelevant as we don't need finance.
I love this back and forward. Can you imagine the onlooking entertainment it givers to those who are actually involved.
The only tougher task than being an Xtract investor trying to work out reality from such ambiguous information is a radio astronomer examining a signal on an oscilloscope that came from a star that died 10 billion years ago to work out what its composition was.