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i'll admit that my range trading xtr for years now having been plenty fruitful, has helped my view of CB as a cult 'ero develop, Andrew.. and, in fairness, I can understand why - plenty/many - others might take a very different view to me on CB..
Generally, it's all gambling .. and anything can happen in gambling..
Gixxer
I believe he has since qualified that statement (at AGM I think) and said he was talking about all of Bushranger?
So CB's view implied that we may not prove up 2mt with our drilling but the buyer will assume its highly likely there will be 2mt in all the licence.
I think it was just another ..."Misunderstanding " :)
NtM
Well, that's definitely a view some could take. All I can say is that you are a lot more forgiving and understanding than I would be :) I would say your view absolves CB of all blame for any outcome!
Isn't he on camera stating RC has 2Mt and is a T1 asset?
Steve
I agree with you on timescales v resource guidance, but in defence of CB the 2mt comment was an early doors comment so that may have been more in hope that expectation and not based on empirical evidence. So CB doing what he does, but not saying 2mt when he KNEW it wont be.
Its noticeable that 2mt figure has not been mentioned for some time and since the model was being finalised..
I'm sure there are some on this board who would still explain away an 8p buy-out or 1mt as CB just being CB and doing his usual thing of exaggerating so we should not be surprised or even critical of him if those are the outcomes.
I'd be one of those some, Andrew.
Anything can happen 'digging' each and every 'ole(s).. and when early 'oles results are positive, human nature is almost always to get bullish....
You could equally say CB 'misled' on where the Price of Copper was going.. but people can be endlessly wrong on that... it's as nebulous as, for eg, what copper might or might not be found in that next Bushranger 'ole drilled.. etc..
Is she or Isn't she.. showing my age here.
We need some hard facts CB no more speculation thankyou, retail is detail
F100
Andrew >>> The superlatives have been recent ("we have a tier one asset" ), and he must know by now what we really have <<<
A good point, with the earlier 2mt predictions, they were no doubt more speculative without ‘all’ the assay data that wasn’t available at them times. But his very recent statements about a resource at RC of 20x25mtpa (tier 1) are a lot more easily determined and would simply be a direct lie if shown later that the resource was far shorter than 500mt.
Wether 2mt was going to come from RC alone has always been contentious. Colin has not directly said “we will get the 2mt from RC” but, he thinks that…….
I have shown a podcast of cb from july21 dreaming of a resource of 20x20mtpa at copper Eq’s of 0.3-0.35 which clearly shows he had realistic expectations that 2mtCu from RC alone were not in his mind. The early geophys at the time pointed to the extension of RC going all the way down 3km’s and could well have seen 2mt coming from an extended RC. But as we now know that potential extension became Ascot and other out and underlying gold systems.
Hi Andrew - I would consider 1.4mt to be 'well short'. Especially if Ascot is included.
As I said, being over-optimistic with timelines is an easy mistake to make. Over-estimating the scale of the resource is something else and I would question if it was just a mistake.
Steve
Thanks for your thoughts.
I think we all know CB exaggerates and that we should not believe everything he says, but there has to be a tipping point when opinion moves from "results show CB was just exaggeration, so what " to "CB has been deliberately misleading". We all will have a different level of result when this tipping point is reached.
One of your comments did surprise me.
"If we are well short of the 2mt expectation (which CB set), then I would regard that as an act of deliberately misleading shareholders".
Depending by what you mean of "well short", but I think we will be less than 1.5mt, if so, you may be nearing the view that he has been "deliberately mislead" ? I actually would consider 1.4mt as being within CB's usual remit of exaggerating so would not consider that he has been deliberately misleading at say 1.4mt. Maybe that's too forgiving of me or maybe I've been here too long :)
If the buy-out is 10p or even less than CB's "They can stick 10p it if offered" then I consider that being deliberately misleading.
I'm sure there are some on this board who would still explain away an 8p buy-out or 1mt as CB just being CB and doing his usual thing of exaggerating so we should not be surprised or even critical of him if those are the outcomes.
LittleWing - The MM's don't care whether they are taking a commission for a trade at 3p or 20p and don't really create the 'spikes'. The spikes happen when news hits and the AIM herd comes steaming in looking for quick profits. When the buys from the herd start to dwindle, and the profit takers take over, the SP inevitably retraces. Hey-ho.
My outcome hope is simple though... to get a fair price for what has been found. I am as tired and frustrated by the wait as everyone else but it would drive me nuts if we accepted a low ball offer just to relieve the anxiety.
I'm thinking 'Kwakers' isn't expecting an invite to CB's 79th Birthday party ?
Meanwhile, back at the fort, I continue my slow adding shares back exercise to my - now modest- holding here.. a chance this goes under 3p, I get...hence the 'slowly' adding back... but anywhere around the 3p ball park feels like a good buying opportunity to me here and now ..
IMHO & DYOR
@LittleWing Its human nature to look at the share price and think "what does the market know that I don't"?
However, there are two factors to consider:
1) If you have done your research on the complex story here, it is far more likely that you know something the market doesn't, rather than the reverse. After all, achieving that is exactly how to make money in stocks.
2) The low share price is assumed to be based on lots of selling. That simply isn't true. The volumes are minimal and the share price moves down completely out of proportion to trading activity. See the screenshots I post most days on Telegram. The MMs only make money through trading so they try to stimulate that trading by moving the price around on minimal volume. The vast majority of shares have remained locked up throughout the recent gradual fall.
Stevemocal... good post. I agree that 10p would be a steal (if we haven't been deceived) which leads to me having to ask what have we missed that makes the current 3p unattractive to buyers ?
Hi Andrew - Having spent the last 25 years managing projects, programmes and portfolios, I know all too well that most people have tendency to over optimism when it comes to timelines, costs and benefits. CB definitely falls into that camp.
Timelines are the easiest part of a project to get wrong because a slippage in one workstream can seriously knock the rest of the delivery plan off course. For example, receiving assay results back a few weeks later than expected could result in having to rebook the hiring of drill rigs or the commissioning of work to model the open pit and economics... and that could lead to a knock on delay of months. So I forgive the missed timelines (through gritted teeth!).
Would I forgive CB overstating the potential scale/value of the resource? Probably not so easily because there is far less guess work involved. He will have been watching the team in Oz building their model as the results came in and would be privy to the 'running total' that they no doubt have. If we are well short of the 2mt expectation (which CB set), then I would regard that as an act of deliberately misleading shareholders.
But there is a difference between over-optimism and being deliberately misleading. I know CB is guilty of the first but I doubt he is guilty of the second. Besides, I have been doing my own crude modelling as result come in, which I use as a 'check' against what CB says. I think we have 1.5+mt at RC and Ascot will ultimately tack Bushranger crashing through the 2mt target. Can we prove at this stage... probably not. Do we need to prove it to get a decent price... probably not. I still believe, based on the known fundamentals, that 10p would be an absolute steal.
It may well not, just be the economics that will be a deciding factor for AA but their own internal politics and where their jurisdictional strategy lies.
Two possible scenarios, firstly there was an original suggestion of “not to be surprised to see phase 2 finished by increasing the IRR of up to 8 yrs at Rc.” As this is now ‘not’ being done to make the economics as strong as possible, but there is adequate data to trigger the buy back to potentially get a no from AA as xtr may already have a good indication that they will not take up their option for these internal political reasons above.
Secondly, although there is sufficient data to trigger the buy back mechanism there is an understanding that the current economics, due to the limited IRR will not satisfy AA’s due diligence process and are not likely to proceed with buying back in. Leaving the project open to the global market as there is a belief that a greater sale price can be achieved.
Just based on the limited IRR being put forward and from steve4077 notes from AGM that perception is to get a ‘No’ from Anglo.
Stevemocal... I wouldn't be disappointed with 10p... that's my point I suppose. Yes, it is true that 20-25p as hinted at was and is a more desirable outcome... but realism guides me to modify that target. TITK are for example some who benefitted by the created 9p spike and other opportunities to forward sell. The SP would not be treading water at 3p if a 20p outcome was around the corner (unless a date for a deal announcement has been leaked and it is some way off yet). Nothing surprises me in ColinWorld so your optimism may well be justified in which case all good. Until evidence is presented (which in itself should rerate the SP) I remain cautiously hopeful of 10p.
What is your outcome hope btw ?
"I personally remain in the 'optimistic camp' and do so by trying to stay focused on the asset, where it is, and worldwide demand for it. 10p?!?!? They can more than just stick it!"
Steve
This is not intended to be a provocative question, just interested in your view.
So if the buy-out was 10p would your view be that CB has been deceptive / misleading with his previous comments or would your view be that ....we all know CB exaggerates so why be surprised that he has done that with buy-out valuation and it's understandable that its much lower than his implication ie (10p and they can stick it comment)
"and he must know by now what we really have"
if that is the case PLEASE publish it. Who benefits by him keeping known evidence from us and the market?
LittleWing - Who are those in the know that are hold the SP at 3p? And for what purpose?
It would seem that you, and many others, are now feeling the strain of the long wait for the news, and making lowball valuations based on deflated sentiment and a desire to soften the blow in case of a disappoint outcome. Luckily, the valuation process won't be based on shareholder confidence/sentiment! I personally remain in the 'optimistic camp' and do so by trying to stay focused on the asset, where it is, and worldwide demand for it. 10p?!?!? They can more than just stick it!
"Surely if the agenda here was to ramp this very hard with no likelihood of delivering shareholder value, then that would be Colin's reputation trashed?"
I'm holding on to that view too. CB is a lot of things but I don't think he is an idiot.
The superlatives have been recent ("we have a tier one asset" ), and he must know by now what we really have.
I have woken up from the dream of 20p.... TITK would not be holding the SP at 3p if that dream was alive IMHO. 10p is my new real world target but accept that even that may be unachievable if Colin has in fact been deliberately deceptive.
Arguably the BR project is much higher profile than historic projects/deals that have failed to deliver. Surely if the agenda here was to ramp this very hard with no likelihood of delivering shareholder value, then that would be Colin's reputation trashed? Maybe he sees something like AFP to be his main bet such that XTR is not as important to him as it is to XTR shareholders? He only needs one from his stable to hit the jackpot which could minimise disappointments elsewhere.
Does he think like this ? Possibly with smaller projects/deals... but I hope that BR is too high a profile for that to be the case.
I'm of the view that even if the buy-out is significantly less than CB has implied ie "If they offered me 10p I'll tell them that they can stick it" the buy-out will be significantly higher than current sp.
An 8p to 10p buy-out would mean CB has been deliberately deceptive (IMHO) with his previous comments and forward guidance, but shareholders would still have made money. Some LTHs would have made a lot of money at that buy-out price :)
My gut feeling has always been this will do well, but nothing like as well as CB has implied. I'm still of that view.
btw, CB is 79 on Friday. What a nice way to celebrate his birthday with a cracking Friday RNS :)
I suspect the way things are going here, we may have to wait for his 80th before we get that cracking RNS.
I'm with you on that Fosters. Sell the asset and move on. I would like to see some indication that AA are in fact interested. The popular standpoint on this seems to be that it is clearly a 'no brainer' given the urgent need for new copper resources to develop and exploit and the 'obvious' impending rise in the price of copper. Both of these need confirmation in the real world.
All very interesting, not sure they would be down playing results to get the AA offer off the table?
My personal view is sell it to AA ASAP take all the uncertainty out of the discussion, for the right "market" price of course