Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Zero, to be clear, yes I'm invested. I've been here 5 years plus now. I read every rns, watch every video and also listen to every podcast, sometimes two,three,four times over. I dont care what anyone on here thinks anymore, it's all just opinions.
The only reason I keep posting is I know Colin reads the boards and it makes me feel better knowing everytime he misses another deadline he unnecessarily set, I will continually moan and he will likely be reading it.
If anyone doesn't like it, there's a filter button.
BTW my continually moaning behaviour started around April/may when we were supposed to have this thing done. Maybe if Colin hadn't insinuated it will be done, I would be excited, waiting for the new jorc resource like the rest of you.
>>Some positive posters are probably also seeking reassurance. Some are simply comfortable with their investment.<<
Here here ZM
Originally we were told to not be surprised to see the drilling to extend the IRR before the end of the phase which would make total sense. Now with the Initial recovery rate at racecourse not being increased with more infilling, from what I understand it is odd, as surely they would want these results to be included in an updated resource statement. Then from feedback from the AGM was that they would see what AA wanted to do first, after a decision is made, then complete the IRR infilling and then other phase 3 targets sequentially.
Generally, during ongoing exploration you would only update the JORC to understand what to do next geologicaly, so maybe in this instance, with one or other buy back option to trigger it seems fair enough in this case, to then understand better what will be needed to be done next. But, the high grade early recovery is a critical component of the NPV model that supports the decision to mine. So in that respect they are going to the extent of having a potentially less than optimal financial evaluation completed or updated, no doubt by a similar or the same independent consultancy firm as before.
That’s the interesting bit.
Is ‘now’ strongly implied from that podcast, that there will not be any phase 3 drilling, regardless of wether AA want back in.
It certainly appears to indicate there is potentially a satisfactory model to show its viability already, with the objective to trigger the buy back mechanism as soon as possible as has always been that objective. So I’m more of the opinion now that this will unfold to a conclusion sooner than later when there is a window of opportunity and certainly if the financial model comes back adequate with scope for the acquirer to improve.
There never is a happy medium.
Little to no news is seen as covering up bad news. Rather than there is no specific news right now that can be talked about.
Lots of news is seen as a ramping CEO who is trying to bolster the SP in advance of yet another raise, yet risks 'crying wolf' and devaluing future news as it may be dismissed as further puff and blather.
My view on negative posters is that the poster is trying to get reassurance from others. If their negative feelings based on what they feel they know was strong enough they would sell out. This excludes the negative posters who have lost money in the past and don't blame themselves. (2nd hint of the day ... you can only ever blame yourself, even if you have really been scammed. You chose to press the #buy# button. Leaving the money in the bank would have resulted in a better result. It was your own appetite for risk that got you where you are).
Some positive posters are probably also seeking reassurance. Some are simply comfortable with their investment.
Actually, I missed out the summise that any raise might be needed, as it won't, even if we did decide to keep the 20%.
We know there are no issues with FB ramp-up and all is on track as CB would have informed us otherwise.
sorry correction:
We know there are no issues with FB ramp-up and all is on track as we would have found out from looking at a third party's update, Empress Royalty, otherwise :)
Banzai
The issues is that if the operating costs of the ramp up are greater than the revenue generated then XTR get 0 from FB. I would imagine that is currently the case as we know the plant is being tested, XTR haven’t declared first income etc. My impression from the AGM was without FB income this year a small raise would be required (obviously this wasn’t explicitly stated)
I agree there is lots to be positive about, FB is going to start generating serious income shortly and BR a fantastic asset with huge potential
However there are also some concerns largely around missed deliverables (time and time again), CB has a history of kicking the can down the road when there is bad news. As mentioned above without FB coming online shortly I’m worried about finances. There are also larger macro issues, not that the company can do much about these.
I do find it a bit frustrating when people on here just whinge, however as investors we also need to understand that there are issues with XTR.
Cheers
James
No it isn't.
I am surprised you haven't already taken the time to explore it yourself. I presume you are invested? You don't seem 100% happy with things. It's an interview with someone who really knows what is going on. Like it or not, you will only know by taking the time to listen to it.
Is it another podcast of colin giving timelines?
If so, i wont bother wasting my time.
Thanks Banzai. It looks like we were thinking along the same lines simultaneously. Apologies to all for the lack of intended line breaks in my post. They were there at time of posting!
As Banzai encourages ... cheer up, and have a listen to the podcast I linked to.
(Although the 'permanently infuriated' may only get further incensed as it features that arch villain, Mr Colin Bird)
Most recent RNS: Colin Bird quoted: "We are now working on the overall geological model for Ascot, which will then be used to produce a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate for the Ascot Prospect. This will be in addition to the updated Racecourse mineral resource estimate which is close to completion."From final summing up: "Xtract is now incorporating all the geological and geochemical data from the Ascot prospect into a geological model which will be used to estimate a maiden Mineral Resource (JORC 2012) for the Ascot prospect. In tandem with this, a revised resource estimate is in preparation for the Racecourse deposit. This will then be used as the basis for an updated conceptual open pit mining study."And have another listen here: (4 weeks ago - Phil Carroll and Kevin Hornsby talk to Colin regarding Bushranger and the Fairbride alluvials.) https://player.fm/series/the-sunday-roast/s4-ep86-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aimxtrThrow as much mud as you like, but it comes across as a genuine appraisal of the situation and what is currently happening regarding Bushranger, with a little exploration/exasperation related to the reticence of the market to open their eyes to the value and potential of XTR.I have had the opportunity to have had a similar conversation in person with Colin Bird. I don't have to convince anyone but myself and my impression was of a down to earth pragmatic professional and there wasn't the slightest whiff of BS, then or now.
We are pouring gold in ever greater quantities week on week. Read self-funding and moving to profit.
We have proven, that is proven, resource that is equal in size/grade to the best in the region. This is being shaped for publication as a going concern.
There is huge demand from the market. Commodity prices are rising in response to tightening supply.
Cheer up.
CB's tactic has been, in the past, to try and " kick the can down the road" to avoid giving bad news or to give himself more time to get some good news. With Bushranger I don't think this tactic will now work.
He has clearly implied its all coming to a conclusion. If the results are not good and he tries delaying tactics then the market will respond accordingly. The latest he could realistically stretch this out WITHOUT MARKET CONSQUENCES would be mid 2023 imho. Yes he could be saying "nearly there now" in 2024 but the market would have made its mind up by then.
All that said, if we dismiss all of Bushranger asset value we must have 2.5 to 3p from FB alone. Minimal down side from here against current sp value imho.
Not to sure if you could say that there would be "Minimal downside" about the consequences to CB's reputation and credibility if he's still not released any MRE / open pit study by mid 2023.
I'm confident a buy-out would have been concluded by then and at a value that sees sp above old high ..hopefully by a significant amount !
(Red Flags imho are CB advocating doing phase 3 with FB money or he wants to buy another "must have" project before Bushranger is anywhere near being sold on.)
This is the title of Colin Birds new book .
He is the master of disaster of others wealth .
Chapter 1
Stirring up hope
Includes bonus advice that says when you buy a few shares yourself with shareholder money it definitely pumps the share price up .
Chapter 2
Create illusion of interest in your project
Chapter 3
Keep drilling and taking fees
Chapter 4
Repeat
He is master of disaster .
Have a great weekend all .
....." I would be most unhappy if XTR changed strategy at this late stage in the game and started down a very long path in search of more jam tomorrow. "
I agree with this statement 100%. My concern is that we may never actually be in the loop if things get spun out here. We have been told that Colin would work towards shareholders' interests here but we won't know for sure that is the agenda here until we see evidence of that. Will the revenue from FB provide a much needed lift in the SP or will the market conclude that the cash will not be spent to the benefit of shareholders ? We just dont know. FWIW I am not one of the "SP doesn't matter" brigade.... Unless a special dividend style payment is made to shareholders the SP is all that matters.
A fair few PIs put their money here for the promised Bushranger strategy as advertised extensively by Colin. He knows that. He also knows that if things haven't gone to plan then the market will not look kindly on that. So I have no doubt we will be kept in the dark if that is unfolding. I choose to keep invested here as even if a fraction of the early assumed reward comes our way it is worth it IMHO. If Colin announced he was taking XTR into the jam sandwich business, and that lifted the SP to somewhere between 10p and 20p, I would be happy. How the SP gets its lift is irrelevant to me, but what is relevant is the belief that Colin will act in the interests of shareholders and not some fancy deal that excites the non shareholders or mining technos. Hopefully we will start to see the wood soon enough.
Captain
No one was summarising that by keeping the 20% raises will be required, unless I have missed a post.
Clearly if/when EL 5574 is sold, then a material amount of that cash will be distributed back to shareholders. Stevemocal was suggesting that because AA would want 100% of the asset they will pay a premium for the 20% not in the buy back and other licenses (which makes sense to a degree). However my point was that as the buy has a clause that if XTR can’t fund there share of development costs there working interest in the asset is diluted and they end up with a 0.75% NSR, hence they are not going to overpay for this as they will know XTR won’t want to keep the 20% nor could they pay (as the cash would have been distributed to shareholders) so would likely end up with the 100% of El 5574 regardless. Obviously this is just speculation on my part but that’s what we are all doing anyways while we wait for actual news.
Cheers
James
It’s not that bad an idea lucky, think about it. Br sells now and the bloodsucking wife will only want to redecorate the whole bleeding house, again, and guarantee make you feel guilty for treating yourself to that Harley you always promised yourself. Besides, the brats will get it all in the end, so I say have the last laugh and make ‘them’ see what it feels like to have the suffering of actually having to wait for something.
Where’s all the money? It will be paid out imminently!
But I really do want a Harley
Yes, great idea, let's use the few hundred million to pay for our share of the capex and opex and wait 12 years for the mine to be built and then wait a couple of years for full production and another 5 years for xtract to start paying a dividend and then over the course of ten years we might get our investment rewarded.
I would be delighted if RC + Ascot MRE reached 2mt. I hope Steve' s right but I would be very surprised if it was more than 1.7Mt combined (imho).
I hope i'm proved wrong but I doubt it.
The later holes were also testing the outer limits of the Racecourse porphyry and the grades are obviously going to reduce... it is the same for any porphyry anywhere in the world!
There may also be some doubt as to whether Racecourse can make the magic 2mt of contain Cu Eq by itself, but XTR have said they are also going to also provide a resource estimate for Ascot and this should ease concerns. Despite the limited drilling at Ascot - which is open in all directions - it is likely that when its' resource estimate is combined with Racecourse, it will total round the 2mt mark - the 2mt does not have to come from Racecourse but from targets within the EL7754 licence.
I would add that anyone who has been following the exploration of the EL7754 licence closely will know this multi porphyry system is likely to ultimately contain many times more than the target 2mt of contained Cu Eq... and make no mistake, AA and other majors will have been paying close attention.
I am invested in xtract and Atlantic lithium which he also mentions in this article and it is riddled with factual inaccuracies as far as Atlantic goes so can only think he doesn't look into these companies thoroughly.
I suggest that very -very- few understand anything - /much - about porphyry's Andew .. which is a big problem in itself... witness the current xtr.l s/p for e.g
Generally, this guy is no mug in the space.. and if he doesn't understand much about porph.....etc...
And the main ill-informed comment by JC (imho) re Racecourse grades
"... the rather low grades disclosed by later drilling......"
The grades are standard porphyry grades. Not low.
Makes me wonder if JC actually understands anything about porphyry's ??
Or, worse, does he even know that Bushranger is a porphyry deposit because, as far as I can tell, that word was not mentioned in his article.
Can’t believe John Cornford wrote that piece that Andrew shared. Made he sound rather ill informed.
In his capacity, I would think he would have a better grasp of the buy back agreement. Placing emphasis on the 2mt with no consideration there is actually another option that xtract are now pursuing! He was tempted to sell but didn’t, because it’s difficult to understand what other investors will do???? Appears to be putting the drift back down into the 3’s due to the drilling results and Colin not helping with fewer excited blogs!! What about Covid, war, global economic instability. Are they not contributing factors?
Assuming investors are thinking that in their own right it will still be worthwhile even though they are assuming 2mt won’t be met, as there is still unexplored ascot and footrot! He obviously doesn’t listen to the ‘excited blogs’ anyway!
And 400mt of contained copper!
Come on!
In his position he should just stick to journalism and not commenting on his own investments.
Australia certainly seems to be one of THE BEST places on earth in which to hunt critical minerals! More great news from the Australian government: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/support-critical-minerals-breakthroughs