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>> Did CB not say he'd be releasing the geophysics to the market and confirming when drill pad approvals were received? Do you think they are still waiting on them or are they being sat on (for whatever reason)? I
We've had the approvals. That can be inferred from the new drill locations. I'm fairly sure we have had the geophysics too. I agree we should have had that in an RNS and that in general comms could be better. I also know that CB reads here and will see all these comments and know there are holders who are unhappy about the current comms and that has been true for many, many years.
Pointing out that comms aren't great is fine the first three times or even ten times. After a while though you have to accept that complaining isn't achieving anything. Colin is the way he is. Yes, he should probably behave differently with regard to comms, but he doesn't and he won't change. This is the way it is at XTR and other CB companies. You either A) Accept that factor and live with it, B) Sell because of it or C) Regularly complain about something you already know won't change. I have chosen option A). I can only suggest to reduce personal frustration that other shareholders could do the same.
TBF I wasn't saying all LTH are overly focused on CB's past behaviour - just some of them. I also agree about the past missed deadlines, etc and I can understand why that can lead to a lack of trust among LTH. I also agree that same over-optimism will almost certainly happen again and anything CB says in interviews should be assessed in that context.
The only point I am trying to make - unsuccessfully I think :) - is that some people seem so focused on that element of CBs personality that it effectively obscures the positive elements he brings - deal-making for example - and prevents a more impartial view of the whole situation at XTR because the 'CB factor' is given too great a weight.
You could effectively ignore every Colin interview and only look what is hard knowledge and still see this as a great investment.
Steve - The issue is not that CB is a villain or the lack of comm's.... the problems is a lack of quality comm's and broken promises. Did CB not say he'd be releasing the geophysics to the market and confirming when drill pad approvals were received? Do you think they are still waiting on them or are they being sat on (for whatever reason)? If you say you are going to do something and then don't, then that comm's was bad comm's because it causes investor concern and has a negative impact the SP... as we can see.
howzap - None of us have seem the actual buy back terms and everything you say is speculation. I personally do not believe there is a lawyer in all Australia that would allow their client to sign a contract that compelled them to sell back an asset they were buying before they were ready to start the negotiations. I also do not believe CB needs to be holding news like IP surveys and drill pad approvals close to his chest prior to the negotiation (what advantage would it give?) and would go as far to say that doing so would be in breach of AIM rules.
The issue, as I see it, is simply unchecked enthusiasm and a lack of capacity to sufficiently think about/prepare the comm's. I would like to see some support brought in as it wouldn't need to cost a lot but would make a big difference in terms of investor confidence and the SP.
Steve4077
I don’t think it’s fair to say LTH are “fixated” on them (missed deadlines etc) but you yourself have correctly stated that CB is not going to change at his age. I agree. So his personal character traits will not change, so if he has in the past been overly optimistic and missed deadlines and targets then I think it quite possible he could do the same again.
This is not just about deadlines though its about believing everything CB says in interviews. In short, I think LTH, from their experience here, are just cautioning some not to believe everything CB says all the time.
If some want to characterize that as being “fixed” or deramping then that’s up to them.
Howzap
Your 8.22am post was silly, provocative and condescending. I thought you were better than that tbh.
I notice the reference to LLLTH such as me and “10p FFS” comment. A deliberate attempt to mischaracterise what I said. My 10p comment was my absolute worst case, as I clearly stated, and not my expectation. I’ve said many times I think buy out will be 20p+ and still do.
So much for your post 2 days ago when you said all views are valuable :)
This has been a great board over the years because alternative views have been respected. It has not turned into many other Aim BB with a brexit type debate where the alternative view is not just wrong, but so wrong that it can be insulted. Such as saying the other view is unresearched or they just don’t understand!
You seem to try to discredit any view which does not fit with your narrative of “everything is great and nothing can go wrong and if you disagree you’re a deramper” .
For the sake of both of our mental health, I think we should just filter each others posts. I suggest you do the same with my posts, as some of my posts may annoy you when they don’t conform to your view of the world !
Steve, the implication that LTHs are lacking in understanding and knowledge is quite frankly offensive. We have had one particular post this morning that spells out exactly that. I was replying to that post. Of course it is up to each of us to determine if we wish to remain as holders depending on how we see the prospects. Could I point out that history is a useful tool in how we weigh up those prospects as we see them ? To be so dismissive of how Colin operates in historic situations could maybe be described as "lacking in knowledge and understanding" also ? FWIW I am comfortable with my position here as I feel my experience of the XTR journey has allowed me to weigh up realistically my expectations. This growing pitching of LTHs against the "new knowledgeable arrivals" is quite frankly unhelpful and I for one would appreciate if some of the arrogance was toned down.
BTW I do agree that the past comms with the team in Australia have been excellent and I would like to see more of that. It seems reasonable to assume that CB must know that too. However, given his recent comments about 'keeping cards close to our chest' (and assuming that isn't misleading in some way), it seems unlikely he would want another similar video interview going into the model details until all his ducks are in a row.
We don't know everything - agreed. However, we do know a lot based on 100+ RNS in the last two years and can infer more from that knowledge base. If we had 100% knowledge then so would everyone else and there would be no profit to be made. Researching and making a educated guess at the gaps is where you can gain an advantage. Even you take a worst case scenario for the knowledge gaps, it is difficult to see a downside. The best case scenario is huge. What you do right now depends a lot on your risk profile, patience, confidence in your own research during a falling share price, and your ability to sift through ramps and de-ramps. patience
Yes, Colin is over-optimistic and we do have periods where comms is less frequent than the past, but still a lot more frequent than most companies. However, there do seems to be some LTH who are fixated on Colin's past missed 'deadlines' or 'broken promises' and assign more weight to that factor than all the hard knowledge already available.
It just seems crazy to me to assume that because we haven't had an RNS or interview for a couple of weeks that it must be because Colin is some Machiavellian villain of AIM, intent on hiding crucial information or causing damage to shareholders. He has 44m shares and options, which gives him considerable motivation to do a good deal for shareholders. He has already delivered a huge amount on BR already. What we have already discovered at BR and achieved at Manica isn't going to suddenly vanish because Colin sets over-optimistic dates.
Howezap Lordy Lordy. Quite some arrogance crammed into that post wasn't there :-)
The point is you don't KNOW how big it has become or what the average grades are until we have the official model. You dont KNOW if the change in comms in down to negotiations. You dont KNOW if Colin has been sincere even.
For your information I am fully aware of what the Bushranger story is and am comfortable with my research thank you very much ! I wouldn't wish to get involved in a "my dad's share holding is bigger than your dads share holding" but I would wager that many long term holders here have built up a sizable offering despite your KNOWING that we do not have the in depth knowledge or understanding ;-)
We know CB is capable of good comms, we also had a long period of inactivity from the company at end of phase 1 leading up to the conceptual pit release. With Colin explaining then why there was a need to keep quiet. So it’s not like it has happened before.
The last interview was only 3 weeks ago that’s hardly a lack of comms. To look closely as to why there is a need to keep ‘cards close to his chest’ he even ‘told’ us, that is what they are needing to do. There is a good argument to support the idea that Bushranger is indeed the huge resource it has the potential of being, with reason to suggest that the terms of the agreement that gives AA an opportunity to make an early offer before any of the other options are met by xtract, is the reason why it is now covertly being put together.
If an early offer was made, the asset could potentially be undersold as any early offers would have to be seriously considered. The clear and present uncertainty in size of resource will make that very difficult allowing xtract to increase the asset value to where they believe maximum value lies within the constraints of their chosen timeframe and budget, protected by the very terms of the agreement to do so.
It is such a unique position to be in, without the agreement in place it would be a completely contrasting approach to resource building, reporting and marketing for sure.
Stevemocal has made a good point about the comms strategy. I first invested in XTR in 2015 then we had the Chepica fiasco in Chile, share consolidation and the multi year delays at Manica. It was a typical crappy AIM stock with lots of skullduggery behind the scenes due to operations in more dodgy parts of the world. I had basically written it off when Bushranger came along, and being a geo I had a good look at what was around it and started buying back in. Shame I missed out on the 0.5p lows!
Anyway, I think the issues we have now are an abundance of riches rather than the opposite. The technical team will be busy looking at their models and different scenarios. The comms at XTR have been good for the past 2 years, which is why this quiet period has been particularly difficult. The share price always drifts down in these quiet periods. I am just waiting for the low to be signalled when Colin picks up a few more shares :-)
stevemocal:
100% agree with that view.
Great post Steve. Colin led everyone up the garden path and then abandoned them. For sure it might be for good reasons. But updating people with drill locations, surveys etc was within his grasp and wouldn't have caused an issue with negotiations.
By not providing news people think the worse, detractors take over with their 3.5p predictions (and might be right) and people are scared to invest.
howezap - How can you say there is no reason to assume CB is "up to his old tricks" when we have seen countless missed timelines and promises not delivered over the last 18 months or so... are they not the "old tricks"?
My problem with CB is not that I think he is a dishonest person , just that I think he is a bit too enthusiastic at times and has spread himself too thin across a lot of companies. As such, we are lucky to have a great team working for us down under, which is why the progress at BR is as impressive as you point out. In fact, introducing shareholders to that team was the one truly great bit of comm's we have seen! If only he could delegate someone else to come up with and manage an actual comm's strategy with the aim of looking after the SP on behalf of shareholders. I honestly believe we should be sitting comfortably at 6+p right now and that the poor comm's alone has wiped at least 25% off the value of this share. Far from de-ramping... I'm pulling my hair out that this fantastic opportunity is not being presented properly to the market and is therefore so undervalued.
Yep defo a pattern! Was right the first time, can ‘some’ pre BR holders not see BR for what it is, where it is, how big it has become, how the average grades are positively inline with in ground copper values across the region, the significance of the gold system and understanding the basic principles and mechanics of the buy back agreement and how that is influencing the shift to non reporting of the resource sensitive news now. Above all, how Colin has been quite open and sincere all along. If this is all understood, they would have a different mindset than one of typical missed deadlines and promises that are influencing negativity now toward Colin. Bushranger has run smoothly from the start, any hiccups have been outside their control, like the early lab delays for assays, if in fact there were ever delays! Even covid didn’t stop the drilling. There has not been any reason to assume CB is up to old tricks.
Not wanting to sound provocative, but most of the ‘new’ investors would have ‘had to’ have thoroughly researched the company and the Oz asset to fully understand exactly what they were buying into.
I honestly believe ‘many’ of the LLLTH simply don’t have, the in depth research based knowledge of the project as many of us ‘new’ bunch, to see or understand what the company actually has now and what Colin is trying to do and needs to do to return the best value to all. 10p ffs
Are you doing a nappy check comment was funny. But interesting he mentioned the 20% discount someone referred to before.
Interesting to see how far we've come over the past year.
Cygnus- >> I expect they are already doing their homework and talking to CB even as we speak.
I agree there may already have been comms between them.
Back in may last year in podcast Colin was explaining how they couldn’t just declare a decision to mine, he said, “once you get into the hard numbers and models that we are doing, you can say we are starting an open pit and will develop the porphyrys from that pit, partially, we will sink a shaft, partially, so that one gets the benefit of the depth with the pit created.”
Now, wether this was Colin’s expectations back then of what was required to trigger that option, and since then, there has been some clarity from Anglo on what they are willing to accept, for xtract to exercise the mine option. Or, the groundwork is something that will actually be required!
I think generally, if AA want Bushranger, as long as xtract provide the models and pit design, they would be happy with that. It’s totally pointless breaking ground now, considering the amount of work required by AA before any actual mine development work is started with a project of this scale.
From 8.30mins
https://youtu.be/2WFUFdHX62Q
I could have had £10k profit on the day of the first spike, bought a lot more since at much higher prices, currently about 3k up on five times the investment, that will teach me to be greedy eh ?
"Moving toward".
Hasn't that been the case ever since we acquired Bushranger though? I dont think repeating that a few weeks ago is new forward guidance .
The irritation I had over the years is that we get informed of an initial plan but when something changes to make that initial plan defunct we are left to join dots that are not valid any more. This causes the negativity. OK we don't know that has happened with Bushranger but new posters that have arrived since Bushranger should consider that longer term posters here are bringing some experience of previous poor comms to the discussion. Investors new and old want to believe the Bushranger story... but that doesn't mean it is a fully illustrated story or even if it has a good ending. I still don't know what the May/June deadline that Colin asserted would not be missed was all about. Having been a shareholder through previous "kept in the dark" periods I consider the possibility that things haven't gone to plan. I know Colin has difficulty in sharing "warts and all" but poor comms when things haven't gone to plan is a sure fire way of stoking the negativity. I agree with Andrew that 10p should be achievable even if the authors of the Bushranger tale planned a better ending.
Thanks gixxer
Also, CB mentioned the decision to mine only a few weeks ago in Zak’s interim update saying, “ we are moving toward the decision to mine or 2MT, we haven’t decided yet.”
Thanks again.
Just wanted to confirm what I had been thinking for some months now.
Yes, that correct. Also I think, based on interviews, that Colin is planning to use a discounted cash flow model as part of the decision to mine to demonstrate the net present value (profitability of the mine over its life vs investing the money instead). In that way, he not only triggers the decision to mine, but gives AA real evidence of the mine's potential value. This model is what the team has been working on for the last months, updating it as we get new assays, metallurgical analysis, IP surveys, etc.
Thanks
So overall the decision to mine, is just a mechanism that Xtr can use for the purpose of activating the buy back clause. So AA will only have one shot at BR, as they will know that Xtr will not have any inclination to mine, but as mentioned. Put it out on the open market & hope that there will be somebody willing to make a offer of the equivalent of sp of something in the region of £250/300M.
Steve4077, your message triggered a couple of thoughts. Firstly, I think the timing is important. CB may well be playing for time precisely because now is not the best moment to enter a copper resource onto the market although a short squeeze may well occur in the near future when the need for copper overpowers the conventional market forces which suggest that the demand for copper will fall.
Secondly, AA can not be expected to make a big, expensive decision on the purchase of BR in 10 days. Hence I expect they are already doing their homework and talking to CB even as we speak.
BTW it seems obvious that Colin can't say "We are confident of 2mt but we aren't declaring it because we want to wait until conditions improve and the copper price goes back up". Anglo would no doubt involve lawyers at that point. Instead, assuming Colin really does want to delay - either for 2mt or decision to mine - he would go quiet and find things that will justifiably occupy a few more weeks/months.