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Started: PEAKDREAD, 11 Jun 2024 13:17
Last post: PEAKDREAD, 11 Jun 2024 13:17
You'd think a labour win would be very good for Vistry - They're pledging to build many, many more homes than the tories have managed to.... However 1) Is Vistry capable of gearing up its model to capitalise on this building boom? and 2) Surely the other housebuilders will be able to copy Vistry's model and at the very least set up a division dedicated to lower cost social housing?? and 3) how much of this potential housing bonanza is baked into the SP (or is it purposefully not baked in due to the limitations surrounding Vistry's growth potential??).
Started: PEAKDREAD, 30 May 2024 14:01
Last post: Svend, 31 May 2024 22:35
Hi PEAKDRED Yes momentum seems to favour a large move due north following the building of the handle of the CUP with handle formation on the weekly tea leaves expecting a major takeoff event i.e. catalyst if/when BOE reduces interest rates. IMO DYOR
Nice to see some positive movement... It seems to have been in a holding pattern of late....
Started: stargate, 6 May 2024 03:19
Last post: Svend, 10 May 2024 10:49
Stargate I agree the price is heading towards the COVID pre-highs at £1491 and forming a mega cup with handle formation. The next potential hurdle is the June 2021 high @1351 DYOR etc
Price target is 1414 arrived from symmetry of recent retracement added to recent sp peak. Target is separately supported by extension of the line connecting previous price peaks. Underlying sector is bullish, and VTY, was leading equity riser in the sector on Friday. RSI(relative strength index), is above 50, confirming the current uptrend in sp. Volatility based Bollinger bands are separating, indicating increased volatility and speed of price movement. Fundamental page on lse website has broad positive fundamentals. DYOR.
Started: londoner7, 17 Mar 2024 12:41
Last post: damofarl, 5 May 2024 21:46
Yesondoner7, tha k you for your excellent posts. I agree. Whilst affordable may be lower margin, it brings secure up front cash (quasi govt funding/grants), so a more capital light business, and allows an anchoring/certainty leveraging into economies for the private (more speculative) sales. Continuity and certainty bring value, and that's what 'affordable' brings to Vistry
I’ve been following Vistry’s progress towards the partnership model for a few years. I was invested in Galiford when Vistry (formally Bovis) acquired their partnership subsidiary. While I’ve been attracted to the partnership model as key to getting more homes built, addressing the societal need, from an investment perspective I’ve struggled to understand the barriers to the traditional builders moving to the model and negating any Vistry advantage.
I watched the recent results presentation by Persimmon.
I was surprised to see that partnerships accounted for 23% of Persimmon’s sales in 2023, up from 18% in 2022, but partnership volumes were still down 17%. The CEO acknowledged the need and likely trend towards an increase in the supply of affordable housing, particularly if Labour wins the next election. But I interpreted his comment as favouring the status quo with the return of a coalition if not Conservative government. Perhaps I over interpret the comments, but it encouraged me to believe that Vistry will get a clear head start in the partnerships sector, and that creates a moat over the traditional builders, albeit for a few years.
I see this as important because I expect the future housing market to be quite different from the market that has operated for the last 30 plus years. I think a potential reversal is illustrated in the house price to earnings ratio, which peaked in 1989 (5x), 2007 (6.3x) and most recently in 2020 (7.0x). Each push higher has its own stimulus and, in my view, the latest was due to:
Planning restrictions, supported by the emergence of the Nimby, which favoured the large builders over the small and medium builders which struggled after the 2008 financial crisis.
Low interest rates, which made higher house prices affordable to buyers.
A diminished desire for flats, following the cladding and lease issues, and Covid lockdown.
(and I’ll add, with lower conviction) A more constrained construction labour force following Brexit.
Today, because of the cost of housing, the marginal first time buyer remains in the private rental sector, and the marginal private sector renter has fallen back to local authorities for social housing. Key is that local authorities have a statutory requirement to support the lower tier, and it then becomes a government problem, which can no longer be ignored.
Assuming Labour form the next government, I’m doubtful it will achieve a substantial increase in the number of houses built, particularly given a continuing constraint on construction labour, but I’ve no doubt that tax funds will be directed towards the affordable housing market. The current CMA investigation should provide evidence of the impact of planning restrictions and Labour might implement a policy solution, which I doubt strengthens the hand of the dominant large private house builders over the affordable market or the small and medium sized builders.
Started: londoner7, 17 Mar 2024 12:48
Last post: Cardinal3, 22 Mar 2024 20:53
Londoner7 you have good insight. Thanks a lot for your comments.
As local authorities can't afford to build affordable housing there is a reliance on the private sector to provide a proportion of new build. Vistry is building on behalf of housing associations, grant -aided by Homes England, who then rent out or use the shared ownership model which can qualify as affordable. It's an interesting model whch seems to be working.
A recent report by Savills illustrates the growth in the Build to Rent market in 2023, “BtR Houses, otherwise known as Single Family Housing, saw £1.9 billion worth of investment, up significantly from £360 million in 2022. This represented 42% of total BtR investment, shattering the previous record of 8% in 2022.”
This statistic represents a significant movement to new development, rather than acquiring existing housing stock for the rental market.
The latest ONS construction report for Jan 2024 shows, latest 3 months on year earlier, public new housing up 5% versus private new housing down -20%. (Currently, public only represents 15% of all new housing)
Perhaps the Vistry CEO is correct in saying the time is right for the partnerships model.
Last post: damofarl, 14 Mar 2024 16:12
Ghgo; think you've rather nailed the reason!
Dividends or buy backs both have their benefits but I suppose Buy backs make the Earnings per share look better and if the Directors bonus is linked to the increasing share price then.....
What is it with this current vogue to do buybacks instead of dividends. Another buyback in lieu of the dividend.
Show me the money. The dividend money
Vistry Group posted impressive FY23 finals this morning confirming that the Group has established itself as the country’s leading Partnerships business. The resilience of the Group's unique Partnerships model was clearly demonstrated delivering a total of 16,118 new homes in 2023, down only 5.4% on the proforma prior year and highlighting the outperformance of VTY relative to the other UK homebuilders. Revenue was up 29.8% to £4,042.1m on an adjusted basis or up 28.6% to £3,564.2m on a reported basis. Reported PBT was up 23.2% to £304.8m while basic EPS dipped 25.3% to 64.6p. The outlook provided for FY24 was also solid with the Group on track to deliver strong growth in completions in 2024, targeting in excess of 17,500 units. This solid expansion is underpinned by a forward sales position totalling £4.6bn, of which £2.1bn is for delivery this year. Valuation is decent with forward PE ratio at 12.4x average for the sector. The balance sheet is solid with net debt at just £88.8m and the share price has positive momentum. BUY....
...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/VTY/831
Started: PEAKDREAD, 12 Mar 2024 11:04
Last post: PEAKDREAD, 14 Mar 2024 14:07
I've been in touch with Adam Patinkin (he gives his emal address at the end of the video and I thought it would be rude not to :-)) - He's a thoroughly nice chap who most definitely knows his onions.
👍My favourite British housebuilder 100 % Paul's video hit the nail on the head and Greg's solid 42 years of experience is very sound indeed onward and upwards
I'm only in this because of you Svend (and because of a video Paul posted which explained Vistry's cunning plan to dominate the affordable housing market :-)) - A very nice rise! Onwards and upwards.....
Nice capital appreciation heading into the mid-teens following another £100 million BB commencing in April
I wasn't expecting the s/p to be up over 6% - but I'm not complaining!
Started: PEAKDREAD, 1 Mar 2024 14:21
Last post: PEAKDREAD, 1 Mar 2024 17:12
Loved the video SimonPH - Gave me a much better insight into what they do and how they do it - much appreciated.
Thanks SimonPH
An hour and a half....wish me luck...I'm going in.
Check this out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W60Cmy3tbU
Hi All,
I must confess I know very little about Vistry - I saw a recommendation for them some time back from someone I follow and respect and have kept an eye on tthem over the last few months to see what they're up to and see if they are indeed "all that"... I've now taken the plunge and taken a small position in them (having watched them steadily rise over the last few months) - I notice the chat board is somewhat barren - Is anyone out there with some knowledge willing to throw in their 2p worth on Vistry? I notice final results are a couple of weeks away - Are the results expected to be decent? TIA.
Well, Greg Fitzgerald is now chairman (NED) and CEO! A clear conflict of interest!
Independant Directors should over sight any wrongdoings at Board level but in my experience, and since they generally represent major investment companies, they turn a blind eye in the interests of the share price. Despicable and unprincipled.
It's Interesting Greg Fitzgerald has been allowed to get away with this- surely he is bound by Insider trading rules and thus should not be allowed to deal in the companies shares during a closed period whilst full year results are yet to be released.
Vistry CEO's Share Sale: Potential Explanations and Questions
The news of Vistry CEO's sudden and substantial share sale, particularly given his close association with Baker Estates Ltd and Fitzgerald, is indeed noteworthy and warrants further investigation. While the specific reasons behind the move remain unclear, here are some potential explanations and questions to consider:
Possible Explanations:
Profit-taking: After a strong period of share price growth, the CEO might be taking advantage of high valuations to cash in on a portion of his holdings. This could be for personal financial reasons, such as diversifying his investment portfolio or meeting upcoming liquidity needs.
Portfolio rebalancing: The CEO might be adjusting his overall investment strategy and reducing his exposure to the housing market, potentially due to concerns about future market conditions or a desire to diversify into other sectors.
Tax planning: The sale could be part of a tax-planning strategy, such as capital gains harvesting or mitigating future tax liabilities.
Internal restructuring: There could be internal changes within Vistry or Baker Estates Ltd that are prompting the CEO to reduce his stake. This could involve mergers, acquisitions, or changes in ownership structure.
Personal reasons: The CEO might have personal reasons unrelated to the company, such as family circumstances or health issues, that necessitate selling some of his shares.
Questions for Further Investigation:
Specific details of the sale: Was the sale through a block trade or open market transaction? Are there any details about the buyer or the price per share?
CEO's past statements: Has the CEO previously made any public statements about his long-term commitment to Vistry or his shareholding intentions?
Company performance: How has Vistry been performing recently? Are there any concerns about the company's future prospects?
Market conditions: Is there anything noteworthy about the current state of the housing market or the broader stock market that might be influencing the decision?
Company statement: Has Vistry issued any official statement regarding the CEO's share sale? If not, is there any plan to do so?
Additional Points:
The size and sudden nature of the sale, coupled with the CEO's position, naturally raise questions and warrant further investigation.
Without more information, it is difficult to assess the true motivations behind the sale and its potential impact on Vistry or the housing market.
Investors should carefully consider the available information and conduct their due diligence before making any investment decisions.
It's important to note that these are just potential explanations and questions based on the limited information available. To gain a clearer understanding of the situation, it's crucial to seek out further details and official statements from Vistry and the CEO.
I hope this information provides a helpful starting point for our investi
CEO Greg Fitzgerald Sold 893,348 shares 8.573M
Baker Estates Ltd which Fitzgerald is closely associated.
Started: LesBoy, 12 Jan 2024 08:39
Last post: LesBoy, 12 Jan 2024 08:39
From the armchair trader this morning:
Vistry Group [LON:VTY] has this morning published a full year trading update which is eye-catching amongst the sector owing to the very modest 5% reduction in completions that has been reported.
That’s ahead of guidance and as a result, adjusted pre-tax profits are expected to be in line with FY22’s numbers.
Management are lauding the company’s unique partnership model as being the winning formula here and forward sales are up 12.4% on the position of a year ago.
Last post: Taverham, 12 Jan 2024 07:58
Will the sp rise today?
Answer almost certainly - best RNS from any house builder this year!
TMS > I 2nd that 100% of the numbers are fact and add that Greg Fitzgerald also personally added to his holdings regularly while still within his exceptional 40 years of experience/faith in the industry/business my prediction is this should/could hit the high teens within 3-5 years and Vistry become part of the nett profit 1B club members by that time.
Here is why Vistry could achieve a net profit of over £1 billion in the next 3-5 years. The company has a strong track record of growth, and the UK housing market is expected to remain buoyant in the coming years. In addition, Vistry has several strategic initiatives in place that are designed to boost its profitability.
Yes, you heard it here first TMS/SB, Here are some reasons/factors that support Vistry's potential to reach £1 billion in net profit:
Strong track record of growth: Vistry has a long history of strong financial performance. The company's adjusted operating profit has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% over the past five years.
Buoyant housing market: The UK housing market is expected to remain strong in the coming years, with demand for new homes outstripping supply. This is likely to support Vistry's sales and profitability.
Strategic initiatives: Vistry is implementing several strategic initiatives that are designed to boost its profitability. These initiatives include:
Focus on high-margin partnerships: Vistry is focusing on partnerships with institutional investors, which tend to offer higher margins than private sales.
Investment in land acquisition: Vistry is investing in land acquisition to ensure it has a pipeline of projects that will support its growth plans.
Improved operational efficiency: Vistry is focused on improving its operational efficiency to reduce costs and increase margins.
Overall, several positive factors suggest that Vistry could achieve a net profit of over £1 billion in the next 3-5 years. The company has a strong track record of growth, the UK housing market is expected to remain buoyant, and Vistry has several strategic initiatives in place that are designed to boost its profitability. AGW IMOO DYOR GLA
“I think the point I was trying to make is that looking at the revenue and profit doubling over the last 3-4 years…”
……………….
Well, Vistry have been on a spending spree over the past year or two so, yes, their revenue has more than doubled…
But I’m old fashioned enough to consider that it’s the bottom line that matters to shareholders, not the top line, as it’s easy enough to spend capital buying businesses but what really matters is whether or not that translates into pro rata real extra profits…
And staying with my preferred metric ~ that clearly you’re not a fan of ~ and working from the tangible net equity of the company each balance sheet divided by the number of shares declared to be in issue at each balance sheet date in order to arrive at the tangible book value per share at each accounts period, I end up with:
2020: BVPS 676p less b/f BVPS 840.7p + div paid 41p = reality check loss per share of (123.2p)
2021: BVPS 751.2p less b/f BVPS 676p + div paid 60p = reality check EPS of 135.2p
2022: BVPS 572.9p less b/f BVPS 751.2p + div paid 63p = reality check loss (115.3p)
Total overall loss per share 2020 to 2022 = (103.3p).
Using the same methodology for the previous three years, 2017 to 2019, gives reality check EPS figures of 75.7p, 98.7p & 108.7p respectively.
That’s a total EPS for the three years of 283.1p.
Mind you ~ I am known to be prone to senior moments, and it’s always possible there’s an error or two in my calculations…?!
However, if your view is that profit has doubled for the most recent three years compared to the previous three years, which is starkly different to my view & which is that profits have not only dived but they’ve disappeared down the plughole, we are clearly using somewhat different metrics by which to form our respective understandings…
However, you have not said how exactly you come to your numbers…?
I think the bottom line to this discussion ~ and thanks for engaging with me on this, by the way ~ is that it takes two different views to make a market in any share at any time, whether they be close together or far apart…
And I reckon our respective views fall into the latter category…
I suppose, at the end of the day, maybe we’ll remember this discussion in a few years’ time and, if we’re still both in the land of the living (I don’t make assumptions about that these days..!) maybe we can revisit this in due course when we’ve seen how things have shaped up in the rear view mirror in due course…?
And I have to own that I only really lobbed a small piece of ordnance into Vistry this morning because the house builder share chat on LSE seems to have become a bit dull of late and I was looking to liven it up a bit…! :-)
Strictly
“Vistry is delivering for shareholders. That’s the bottom line.”
…………..
TMS,
You’re not the first here on LSE to be unimpressed with my “rear view mirror” approach to investing, and I don’t imagine you’ll be the last either..?
However, it has served me well over more than twenty years of investing just in house builder shares & has provided me with a more than adequate living over that time.
My absolute basic metric is the progress of the tangible book value of a single share, adjusted for dividends.
This is 100% rear view mirror stuff…
Taking a comparison of Bellway vs Vistry, starting in 1997, Bellway had tangible BVPS of 183p vs 185p for Vistry (then Bovis).
Pretty much the same, in other words…
Scroll forward to 2022, Bellway’s tangible BVPS is now 2,727p vs Vistry’s 573p.
Add total divs paid, Bellway 1,282p & Vistry 702p, and less starting BVPS in each case, and you have tangible BVPS gain for Bellway of 3,826p vs Vistry 1,090p…
This reflects the difference in long term average ROE… in Bellway’s case, this is 16.4% and for Vistry this is 10.2%.
Now, if you are saying that Vistry has entered some brave new world in terms of how they operate from here then, who knows, you may well be right…?
However, Telford Homes, in which I was an investor at the time, headed off down a similar road, implying that the world was their lobster with a capital-lite future ~ except it didn’t quite pan out like that in practice…
But if we’re looking at what Vistry have done for the past three years insofar as published year end accounts go, by my reckoning, and tracking tangible BVPS as above, they lost 103.3p tangible BVPS for the three years as a whole, while also paying out 164p in dividend.
The upshot of these combined was to take their tangible BVPS down from 840.2p to 572.9p.
Whatever their prospects may, or may not, be from here ~ and if you’re an intended long term holder of their shares then obviously you’re going to be optimistic about this ~ I consider myself to be rather wussy in these things and I really don’t have the cojones to be a Vistry investor.
Strictly
TheMoneyShark I fully agree and would just add that their decision to fully move into 'partnerships' seems to have been a good strategic move considering the current lack of housing and for a foreseeable timeline.
Started: irnbr, 8 Jan 2024 20:35
Last post: irnbr, 8 Jan 2024 20:35
Interesting take on the company, David Capital Partner's Adam Patinkin thesis on Vistry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W60Cmy3tbU&ab_channel=YetAnotherValuePodcast
Started: strictlybricks, 11 Dec 2023 09:13
Last post: strictlybricks, 11 Dec 2023 09:13
Interesting to see that Vistry, by far the worst performer over the past decade of the big house builders that I track though none-the-less still enjoying a gravity-defying market valuation, are about to embark upon a share buyback adventure...
Let me quantify my above assertion on this.
Tangible BVPS at the end of 2012, 567p
Tangible BVPS at the end of 2022, 572p
So, over ten years, Vistry have made the princely progress of just 1%.
And yet, for this stellar performance, the market currently awards them a price to book of over 1.3, which even trumps Persimmon’s…
Furthermore, Vistry also have the weakest balance sheet of the lot by the metric I use, which is total liabilities as a percentage of net tangible balance sheet.
Vistry’s is the only one with a total liabilities percentage in treble figures ~ 142% as at June 2023 by my reckoning….
Vistry are way off my radar as a potential investing prospect ~ but they do still fascinate me as I watch Mr Market’s workings, and wonder..?
Which is why I keep tabs on them…
Strictly
Started to add back my main holding!
Markets are negative with the business model after Oct update!
I think there's 50% + upside over the next couple years.
DYOR
gla
Trojan - Thanks update/announcement on the deck for tomorrow am shall be interesting no doubt..
Last post: Svend, 14 Sep 2023 22:32
Banburyboy I do not know either but their business tactic seems sound I.E to always try to follow where the demand is and whether Residential markets make a comeback anytime soon is probably a guessing game like trying timing the peaks and troughs of the bank interest rate environments which then leads to inflation speculation etc. However that said I do like the BOD's boldness in taking firm action when it's most needed it proves their firm resilience and experience.
Yes Svend. I haven't picked up on whether this is a permanent change in direction.
So if and when private residential picks up will they return ? Can they return ? Will they mothball that element of the land bank or just sell it ? Anyone know ?
Banburyboy agree these guys seem like the Rolls Royce of the house-building complex let's hope the SP can shine the same way for the next 3 years.
Bought back one trench @ 1% lower ....... not my best trade.
Will add few more if the share retraces several pc.
Happy the rise .........gla
Sold!!
gla
Started: ripley94, 28 Nov 2022 15:16
Last post: ripley94, 13 Sep 2023 13:35
Never a divined from Countryside Properties.
A Corporate Action Cash Settlement Stock payment of £180 was paid out on 28/11/22 same time as delisting .
First dividend paid out to me 2/6/23 .
The first since November 2022 merger , still down on Countryside Properties investment.
15% rise today , could not see how I got them until I looked here .
At 920p now have to check if still at a loss.
Merged with Vistry Group PLC exchange of shares ( D ) today
Changed its name from Countryside Properties to Countryside Partnership 31st January 2022.
At Vistry price today 633p a loss of 50% for me .
Yield here 6.7%
Started: stargate, 29 Aug 2023 11:25
Last post: Svend, 11 Sep 2023 11:16
Monty888 that is target 1 hit already and now only 10p off target 2 it's all on the charts ;-)
Monty888 is wrong the price is visible on the charts and the fair value is probably £ 10 so the share price is currently undervalued by 20% prior to earnings on Monday. If the results are reasonable to good then a close above £ 812 on the weekly chart would target 1 £ 912, target 2 £ 939 and finally target 3 £ 971 before hitting fair value above £ 10 in case of a good earnings beat. Meanwhile agree historically a good builder with a great dividend and long-term hold as evidenced by the insider buying in the last year:-)
Forget your charts. The results next week will send the SP or down not your chart patterns. Charts are OK when results are not imminently pending here and there. Holistically an undervalued well run builder with good dividend yields. Long term hold
Stargate - The momentum kicking in Expect some consolidation on fairly low volumes going into September however if we see a close above the weekly 200 SMA at around 877 by the end of September then low teens are probably and potentially back in play.
Is sp, can close above the weekly dojo candlestick of 751, is a buy, with the caution that overhead supply is nearby at 774. However if the sp, can close above 776, it should be above major down trendline, with a price target of 991.
Housebuilders jump as Gove scraps environmental rules
Shares in housebuilders are firmly on the front foot after the government announced it was scrapping UK environmental rules that developers say have prevented tens of thousands of homes from being built in recent years.
Persimmon PLC (LSE:PSN) rose 3.4%, Barratt Developments PLC (LSE:BDEV) climbed 2.7%, Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) advanced 2.5% and Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) gained 4.5%.
The property industry has complained that Natural England, a government agency, has blocked the building of large numbers of new developments by enforcing so-called “nutrient neutrality” regulations designed to protect the country’s waterways.
The rules were introduced under an EU directive on habitats and reinforced by a 2018 European Court of Justice ruling that said adding nutrients to soil that was already in poor condition would be unlawful.
Housing secretary Michael Gove said: "We are committed to building the homes this country needs and to enhancing our environment."
"The way EU rules have been applied has held us back. These changes will provide a multibillion-pound boost for the UK economy and see us build more than 100,000 new homes."
"Protecting the environment is paramount which is why the measures we’re announcing today will allow us to go further to protect and restore our precious waterways whilst still building the much-needed homes this country needs," he added.
Started: Atanasoff, 14 Aug 2023 18:26
Last post: Atanasoff, 14 Aug 2023 18:26
Boris Homes twitter profile has been deleted with just a placeholder saying it has been shut down.
Ominous.
Jefferies raises Vistry price target to 923 (880) pence - 'buy'
Started: 1.ARMANI, 20 Jul 2023 07:39
Last post: 1.ARMANI, 20 Jul 2023 07:39
July 20 (Reuters) - British homebuilder Vistry Group on Thursday joined its bigger rivals in flagging an intensifying slowdown in the housing market as a surge in mortgage rates in recent months weighed heavily on demand.
The FTSE 250 firm, which works with local authorities and housing associations to build affordable homes, reaffirmed its forecast of adjusted pre-tax profit for the year ending Dec. 31 in excess of 450 million pounds.
"Partnerships is demonstrating its resilience and remains on track to deliver revenue growth in the full year," Chief Executive Greg Fitzgerald said in a statement, referring to the part of the business that builds homes for local government.
British housebuilders have flagged economic headwinds from higher interest rates, which have hit demand and building rates, as the Bank of England battles the highest inflation rate among the big rich economies.
(Reporting by Suban Abdulla in London and Aby Jose Koilparambil in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonia Cheema and Kate Holton)
Started: 1.ARMANI, 19 Jul 2023 11:32
Last post: 1.ARMANI, 19 Jul 2023 11:32
Trading update 20th July.
Booked some profits today 783p
gla