Poker I am taking them at their word on per diems that are published in the accounts. They say something like £304 for this year and £308 for next. Would be a bit rude of them to gross up any discounts !!
Well i brought another 3,000 at 1.92. My calcualtions are India $1080m Cash at June 21 (including sale consideration) $341m Defered consideration Waldorf $455 - $273 = $182m 2021 take at 60% over $52 $100m based on interims and $85 oil on second half
Slow and Steady nothing i am aware of . Saga down 15% from 368 on Sept 27th. Admiral down 8% Aviva 1% and Direct line 3%. Easy jet down 9%and Carnival down 2%. We seem to have been battered. Iceland on 19th June just sold out. That's six cruises in the first half of 2022 sold out. Next is St James 13 April 6 cabins left and Greenland July 17 cabins left. Assuming these go that's eight of seventeen sold out. The above analysis excludes the four Jan / Feb cruises that replaced South America and were announced in early October. The two to the Canaries were heavily discounted in the Saterday Times - £210pppn. The four cruises are shifting well and at 48% booked which is good for just three weeks. Just have to hope the market turns soon
The price reached £2.15 late December 2020 driven by arbitration panel favouring CNE. Oil price WTI was $42. We are now at £1.90 SP with a settlement close to closing and oil doubled. Most other oilers are up significantly in same horizon. Tempted to buy some more tomorrow. Hope their is no sting in the tail that I / other investors are unaware of !!
I think total fuel costs are £10m based on $80 oil. Derived from the 2019 ship presentation. Fuel hedges at 31 July 21 were £0.4m ((Note 12). In terms of total operating costs on cruise fuel not too material. But not a lot hedged unless they did something after July. Interestingly they have loads of foreign exchange hedges in relation to the foreign currency of Tour.
Poker good balanced posts. Reasons to be cheerful and hopeful £175m in the bank in May. So they could pay back that £85m. Cruise bookings for 2022 i have as 74% full (85% Q1 86% Q2 77% Q3 and 47% Q4). This excludes the South America cruise cancelled and replaced by four others. Those four cruises have been available 2 weeks and are 43% full already with 190 cabins shifted up to 12 October. Per diems £259 pre pandemic. Increased to £294 for the June / July sailing and £302 in 2021 forward bookings and £306 for 2022 forward booking. This is £47 or 18% which is phenominal. Each £1 is 300k per ship onto the bottom line Capacity way higher than they have ever been and prices based on per diem way higher Nominal corporation tax payable as we are in the tonnage tax regime. Downside I concur Tour burn of £2.5m (based on segment operating loss of £16m in the interims ) but should easily be covered by cruise . The elephant in the room is deposits on Tour we have blown in earlier years. These were £19.9m in the six months to July 21 and i a hoping they will work there way through by year end. Once these have gone i am really confident. Definately a long term hold and any investors at this price will in my opinion be well rewarded
Jed I gave you a serious and researched answer to your question re inflation based on the companies own sensitivities and costs. The impact is very minor . Unless you have any specific Saga info (good or bad) this board is very objective don't think it's worth you posting.
Rox - keep looking at this. Cash generation is really good. Nearly took leap based on Shoe this morning which operates a similer estate and market. Waiting for Cairn to formally agree India settlement price is now £1.90. £2.80 per share is backed by cash. Valuation seems crazy. Might buy card. Saga my main hold as you know looking dire but will come good. You got a reentry price on the good ship Saga ?
Good post saev and ant. You have approached the valuation differently and come up with a similer answer. We are worth £3 a share based on assets and most of that is cash. Only risk is India deal which we seem to take as a given but market is unsure. The risk is we push for interest and legal fees. I hope they don't but that must be what's holding the price down ?
Thanks Rob. I'm aware of the decline 2018 17.5kbpd. 2019 23k 2020 21k 2021 estimate 17-19k. Still feels very cheap. Be happier if there was some "avoided" decommissioning costs. Does anyone know. My 5000 shares and vote could swing it :)
We sell an asset with an effective date of 1st Jan 2020. The sale price is £455m. We operate it for the eighteen months to 30th June and the resultant cash flow of £273m is knocked off the purchase price !!! Waldorf have done nothing and aquire an asset for a lot less than the original purchase price. With high oil price in the final half of 2021 we might be paying them. Granted we get a share of any oil over $52 but the deal sounds too awful to be true. I can only think we avoid billions in decommissioning costs ? Does anyone know ?
Jed oil price in Nov 19 when they annouced sensitivities was $63(brent) . Its about $83 now so 30% increase. Every 10% increase adds £0.5m to annual fuel costs per ship so £3.0m increase. Total operating costs for both ships circa £70m of which in Nov 19.
Hi Laughton rox is right about gooner. I do think they are clever with the pricing so two things. - there is a myriad of different types of cabins so the price promise only applies to a small subset. - they release cabins in blocks. So the heavily discounted class of cabins are only at the end. Narrowing any price promise commitments. They balance being fair with being commercial and this is there day to day bread and butter business.
Jed Agree your general point but for Saga cruises - oil is a fractional cost as evidenced in the ships sensitivity presentation - wages / food agreed some pressure but per diams allready +20% above normal levels. - corporation tax is in tonnage tax regime so 100k a year a very low marginal rate. Market will "generalise' but any hit to cruise from world events on pricing should be minor.
Fdb poly a fair point and I hope not. I try to be objective - Tour is a dog, a couple of posters on here think insurance is stale and no dividends for quite a while. But to me at the positives outweigh the negatives.
At £3.30 and a market cap of £460m this must begin to look attractive again . £175m of available cash and Insurance and cruise - cash generative. No prospect of a RI / cash call Insurance contributing £140m a year and stable. Cruise almost certain to put in a PBT of £50-70m based on forward bookings. Losses on Tour likely to decline as legacy issue's re deposits being spent feed through. Just looked at 2021 short term booking - two cruises late Oct 78% booked. Three cruises November 81% booked and three Dec 88% booked (one sold out). These are pretty good figures. 2022 - ignoring the four new cruises to replace the South America one that was pulled that have only been announced a few days and are going fast . Jan - Sept - six cruises sold out. Q1 86% of capacity sold , Q2 86% sold and Q3 77%. That's a forward look of more or less a year with bookings of 83% capacity already. These figures are absolutely spectacular, the are superb . I seriously believe if the company did a news release (RNS) and included this it would cause a significant rise in our price and broker re-ratings. All in my opinion of course.
RE: Update on First half 2022 cruises06 Oct 2021 12:35
Batfest - could be falling due to a seller as some speculate on here or covid sentiment. I would be confident on cruise but Tour as you know massively worries me. If we can get shut of Tour and sentiment returns £200m I think is well possible. As others have pointed out a long term hold